Episode 224: How Worried Should We Be About The Mariners Offense?

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 224 of the Marine Layer Podcast. We'll address our level concern with the Mariners offense through seven games and the Mariners have a new starter in the rotation. It's a name you might know. We'll try and explain it. Here's a reminder for you guys. If you want to stay on top of all of our stuff, there's a super easy way to do it now because it's all in one spot. It's all on our website, marinelayerpod.com. Super easy to remember and it's got everything you need.

[00:00:27] If you want to listen to these episodes, if you want to watch these episodes, if you want to leave a review, if you want to buy some merch. Merch is rolling in, by the way. People are getting their stuff. It's awesome. So if you're interested in that, if you want to sign up for our Patreon, which we hope you do, or about a million other different things, head over there, marinelayerpod.com. And if you want to follow us on social media, where we're posting content multiple times every day, you can do so everywhere across socials at Marinelayerpod. Let's get it rolling.

[00:01:07] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording on Thursday evening, April 3rd. I'm going to call back to the last couple of months of last season where I vividly remember whenever I'd bring in these off-day episodes, you would tell me, especially in those final two months, Man, you know, usually there are days, I don't like days without baseball, but these off-days, I cherish now because I don't have to watch this team.

[00:01:35] Is the same energy being held here? Not yet. It's still too early. Seven games have not looked good offensively, but we are still seven games in. You got to get into the dog days for that. You know how players always talk about they need off days when the season really gets rolling and they've played a lot of games and you're in the dog days of summer? Listen, podcasters need off days too. We grind just like players do.

[00:02:01] Honestly, you can argue it might be harder to be a podcaster than a player because you know what players have to do? You know what players have to do? They're playing in the middle of the game. They don't have to watch on TV. They're soaked up in the moment. They've drowned out the pressure and drained out the pressure because that's their job. They're focused. You know how much worse it is to have to sit on your couch and stress with every pitch? You need the off days. Well, the biggest difference is at least if you're a player, you know, hypothetically, you could go home.

[00:02:30] You could strike out four times. You could have a golden sombrero. You go back to your five-star hotel room. You open up your banking app and you see, oh, look, wow, it's a check for $80,000 in my bank account. Well, I feel terrible. Those four strikeouts are really going to weigh on me. Me? Wow, have you gotten a check for $80,000? Not over the course of one week, I can tell you that. I can confirm I have not gotten one either.

[00:03:00] Yeah. So stamp that right here. Harder to be a podcaster than a player. Vibe check through the first seven games. How would I describe this? Not overreacting. Not jumping to any conclusions. But not exactly inspired either. That falls in line with what we were talking to Divish about.

[00:03:29] Like, when can you still say it's early? It's not the wins or losses themselves. It's how you got there. Yeah. And Divish made a really good point on Wednesday's podcast, which if you haven't checked out yet, you should. Because he's awesome as always. It's also his last interview before he goes on his sabbatical for four months. Which we didn't get to talk about with him, but now everybody knows.

[00:03:50] Anyway, he's right in the sense of, I think the reason Mariners fans freak out so early is, it's not because of the losses themselves. If Dodgers fans saw their team at two and five, I'm sure they wouldn't be happy. But nobody really thinks, Shohei and Freddie Freeman and Mookie and Blake Snell and Yamamoto, I could list the whole roster. Nobody thinks, yeah, those guys are going to finish with 78 wins. It's going to be a bad year. No, they're going to turn it around.

[00:04:18] The point that Divish makes that I think is really good is, he says, is this correctable? And I think that's what fans get worried about, what we get worried about, and I think there's merit to it. And people get worried because there is a fear that this stuff is not correctable. People are watching this offense and saying, this looks like the exact same thing as last year. Now again, seven games, not jumping to any conclusions, but that is where the rationale comes from, from the fan base. And I don't think it's a crazy one.

[00:04:48] It depends what you think is correctable. Like the pitching issue, whatever pitching issues on the handful of nights the Mariners struggled pitching-wise in the first seven games, I'd like those are correctable because as much as we love Emerson Hancock, George Kirby's coming back, right? Or the guy we're about to talk about here in a second who's going to take his spot starting today on Friday, that is something that's correctable because you have someone who's entrenched who's going to come back. The offense, though, as we'll mention, it's a lot of the same guys.

[00:05:18] So people have already seen 162 games of primarily this bunch. Therefore, there's less optimism that things will turn. However, there are some things that we'll talk about in the segment where we'll talk about the offense. We'll just leave it up to each their own and give our opinion on whether or not we think these things are going to change or not. Through seven games, I'll say how they got to a lot of these wins and losses did not feel very sustainable to me.

[00:05:44] There's not much about those seven games that felt comfortable and sustainable. But the good thing is it's just seven games. They got 155 left to play. The value of going 3-4 in the first homestand, despite not playing well, is that it's given you time to correct some of those mistakes, if you correct them, where you're not already dug into a hole. I'm going to be honest. I don't think this is a crazy thing to say. There's a real world this team can be 0-7 right now.

[00:06:13] Because the three games they won were not sustainable baseball games. It's not a way you can really play long term. And they barely squeaked out those wins anyway. If Colt Keith just throws the ball to first base instead of forgetting how many outs there were on Wednesday, Tigers win. If Julio swings and misses through that one pitch instead of hitting it out of the yard, A's win. Because that was their only source of offense. One swing from Julio, they gave him a 2-1 win Sunday.

[00:06:42] And then they almost lost on opening night too, before a nice rally in the 8. That one was probably the most sustainable. And it wasn't even that sustainable. That's not crazy, right? I'm not saying they... Baseball is baseball and things happen all the time. And they're 3-4. That is a fact. And it's good that they are because they have not dug themselves into some huge hole. But there's a world they could be 0-7.

[00:07:05] But also it's funny how their two best days of offensive productivity. Number one came in the game where they also had their worst start of the season on the mound. That's not something you can predict, right? Because they scored six runs. You'll call it that late homer. They had the most strung together at bats. Like that's real, right? The game was real.

[00:07:31] Well, the trend does not seem to be real because they haven't had another offensive output like that in any of the first seven games. No, they haven't. And expecting this offense to be an offense that does that consistency or consistently, that's something we're just going to have to see at that point. And let's be real. Like I was impressed with what they did against Tarek Skubel. Because they had to do that, right? It wasn't a perfect offensive performance. But given the competition on the mound, you take advantage of things. You said it in your reaction.

[00:08:00] You look at this in two ways. Either the Tigers gifted you a win or you're a team that keeps the gas pedal down and takes advantage of opportunities. That's what the best teams do. I mean, that's what the Dodgers do. We just talked about the Dodgers. The Dodgers take advantage of opportunities. You drop a fly ball with the nine hitter up. Shohei comes up and then boom. Game over. And I think both sides of that coin are fair to look at.

[00:08:24] It is absolutely fair to say the Mariners very easily could have and maybe should have lost 2-1 on Wednesday if Colt Keith just throws the ball to first base. But the other side of it is, yes, the best teams take advantage of mistakes. And it's not always mistakes from the pitcher. Victor Robles capitalized on the inning being extended and doubled. Now, there is a world Ryan Cradler also could have caught that ball if Parker Meadows was out there. Maybe he does because the Tigers were down. Because he did that last year. Right.

[00:08:54] The Colt Keith play, I saw this on Twitter. It was almost the antithesis of the Parker Meadows catch. Because the Parker Meadows catch legitimately may have lost the Mariners their season last year. They might have been in the playoffs had it not been for that. But the Colt Keith play, while it is April, and I'm not saying it's defining their season already, it did gift him a win off maybe the best pitcher in baseball. And defense comes into play with this too, as we have talked about the adventures the Mariners have had at third and first base.

[00:09:22] It's been, it's about limiting mistakes all over the place. Yeah. I think that's a good way to put it. Sure. All right, we're going to get into our couple of storylines here in a minute. We should do some housekeeping things though first, right? Because there's a couple things to update the people on. Yeah. The first thing, first thing I'll mention, which I forgot to even mention to you before we started recording, our next live show, guys, April 19th at Queen Anne Beer Hall at 11 a.m. So take this moment.

[00:09:51] I will repeat myself as you're listening to us. You're going to take out either your phone. You're going to pull up your calendar app. You'll do something. You'll write it down on a piece of paper. All right, let me say it again. Again, April 19th, 2025, 11 a.m., Queen Anne Beer Hall. There's a 12 o'clock Mariner game that day. So we'll do an hour live show and then we'll sit down with you guys and we're going to watch the Mariners and the Blue Jays for a 12 o'clock first pitch. So it'll be a fun afternoon. So come out to Queen Anne Beer Hall.

[00:10:19] That should be a ton of fun for our next live show. And we're going to ramp the trivia up too. We did it the last time, got rave reviews, and I think people are going to enjoy this one too. So we'll ramp it up a little bit, Lyle. Let's make it a little bit harder. Sure. Let's do it. We can have some harder questions in there. But yeah, that was the whole idea behind this one, which is it's a Saturday, by the way. If you're not looking at that date this second while you're listening to it, that April 19th date, it is a Saturday.

[00:10:49] So hopefully people's schedules are free. We're doing the live show before the game starts as a way to, one, still do the live show. And like TJ said, we'll go anywhere between 30 minutes to an hour, depending on, you know, just depending on a bunch of different circumstances. But yes, there will be a real live show. We're going to do some trivia, a bunch of that stuff before the game. And then, yeah, we thought this would be a really fun opportunity to sit and hang out and watch a game with a bunch of fans, with a bunch of Mariners fans.

[00:11:17] So if you want to do that, if you want to come hang out with us, come out. Should be really fun. Number two housekeeping item, as a reminder to people, we've mentioned it before, but starting next week, we're going to be going to three episodes a week. Might chop off a few minutes off of every episode, but we're hoping with more longstanding coverage throughout the week. I think it's going to be a really fun and really exciting product. That's going to the Monday episode, essentially.

[00:11:46] The episodes are now going to get released Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. The Wednesday and Friday episodes stay the same. We're adding an episode on Monday. It's essentially going to replace the Sunday night live streams we did last year and turning into a formal episode. So we'll have essentially like just a regular episode with just the two of us on Monday. This is what we're aiming for, right? Things depend on schedules. So we'll work it out as the season goes along, depending on when we get things recorded.

[00:12:14] But Monday's episode is going to be more of just an analysis episode with Lyle and I. We'll have our interview episode on Wednesday, and then we'll do our mailbag episode on Friday. That should be a lot of fun. Yeah. So Mondays, for the most part, will probably be weekend recaps. And like TJ said, taking away some storylines. That way, right after a weekend series, we can hop on and pretty much give our instant takeaways. Wednesdays, again, nothing really changes with that. More often than not, our interview episodes are almost always Wednesdays.

[00:12:44] So nothing really changes with that. And then instead of just doing a mailbag once a month, we're going to give you guys an opportunity to submit more questions. It's another way for us to just be more interactive with you guys and hear more from you guys because we obviously want to. We obviously would love to take all your questions, and we love taking all your questions. So this is another way to do that. And the three episodes a week with the season rolling, we're really excited about. And hopefully you guys are too.

[00:13:08] And it just gives everybody more content to consume with the Mariners and just gives everybody more things to talk about. So, yeah, we're excited about doing the three shows a week. We're not going to do the live streams anymore, but we think this makes up for it. And, yeah, we can't wait to get rolling with it. And then lastly, as Lau mentioned in the intro, merch is starting to arrive to people. We've been bumping it. We released it a few weeks ago. And now that some of you are starting to get your merch, first of all, great time to post it on social media.

[00:13:36] We have, I've seen multiple people posting it, showing what kind of merch they got. Please, if you get merch from us, be sure to tag us or retweet it. And we're trying to, we're trying to spread the word. We're trying to get as merch to as many people as possible. Lau, your hoodie came in, right? How's it look? Oh, it looks great. Like, genuinely, it looks really cool. Like, good quality. Design is cool. It's going to be a really, really fun thing to wear around.

[00:14:03] And the reviews we've gotten so far from the people that have gotten their stuff are really positive. They said that looks awesome, can't wait to wear it, etc. So, really cool. I mean, seriously, if you guys get merch, tag us either on your Instagram story or on Twitter. Because we would, one, love to repost it. And two, hopefully we see you guys wearing it around the ballpark. Because that would be sick. If you guys need any justification for wearing it around the park or for getting some in general,

[00:14:32] we've had some of the players and some of the guys that we've really connected well with reach out to us and say, yeah, I want some of the merch. I want to get some merch. So, if you want to look like some of the players, buy some merch. So, the place to do that, marinelayerpod.com slash merch. Pretty easy. Marinelayerpod.com slash merch is the place to go for our shirts and hoodies. And you guys should go check it out. 30 bucks. 30 bucks out of pocket, you get a hoodie of ours. It's pretty cool.

[00:15:01] Okay. Yeah, and the shirts are a little less than that. So, yeah, you've got your options. Lyle, who's starting for the Mariners today? Well, that would be one Luis Castillo. Luis Castillo. And by today, you mean here on Friday. Yes. Right. Yes. When people were listening to this. Now, tell me if I'm wrong. Luis Castillo also started on Wednesday. So, I posted this to social media on Thursday afternoon. I don't know why this is where my brain went and where my mind went, but it did.

[00:15:31] It's that old riddle. Had you heard that riddle before, by the way? Let me tell people first. I'll tell people. It's a man rides his horse into town on Friday. He stays in town for three days and then leaves on Friday. How did he do it? Have you heard that riddle before? Maybe. It didn't ring a bell instantaneously. That's what you're wondering. I think it's sort of famous. I at least know it's in the movie Little Big League, which is a baseball movie, and I thought

[00:16:01] it's decently well known. Anyway, the point being is, the answer to the riddle is, after nobody ever figures it out, because that's the trick of this thing, is people hear that riddle and say, I don't know what to tell you. It's impossible. You're not staying for three days after arriving Friday and leaving Friday. And the answer to the riddle is, his horse's name was Friday. Oh, yeah. Hilarious. Anyway, this kind of feels like that. I said, Luis Castillo pitches on Wednesday.

[00:16:28] He throws 92 pitches and then starts on Friday. How is he doing it? Well, your obvious answer immediately is, he's not. No starters throwing nearly 100 pitches, resting for a day and pitching again. This isn't the 1910s. But, there are two Luis Castillos now that both pitch for the Seattle Mariners. What a world. How weird is it? Feels a little weird. I did not think this situation would happen.

[00:16:58] I'm going to be honest. I did not think the other Luis Castillo would be starting a game this year. It's interesting. I'll say that. Especially when you go and look at Luis Castillo. Luis F. Castillo I might be referencing, by the way. There's the Rock Luis Castillo and then there's Luis F. Castillo, who will be starting for the Mariners on Friday. You want to know how many starts in the big leagues he has made since 2017? Do you want me to answer?

[00:17:27] Because I already know. Or do you just want to tell the people? Fine, Lyle. He's started zero games since 2017. He has not started many professional games, period, in his career in American baseball. The last two years, for some background context, Luis F. Castillo, that is, pitched in Japan. He started 15 games this last year in Japan and had a sub-three era, which is pretty good.

[00:17:53] But his entire time playing in minor league baseball in America, he has not started at all. He started three games in the minors in 2016. The last time he was a regular starter in American professional baseball was 2013. 2013. It's a long time ago. Let's just phrase it like this. Let's keep it simple. Luis F. Castillo has thrown less than four career big league innings.

[00:18:23] Yeah. Not great. The way this entire Emerson Hancock situation has been handled makes basically no sense to me. I can't wrap my head around it. I can't put my finger on it. The Mariners must have seen something that they didn't love that we don't know. Or they just oversimplified trying to move around their roster and reshuffle their roster. Because Emerson Hancock's been the sixth guy now forever.

[00:18:52] It was known throughout the offseason. It was known throughout spring training. It was made very clear that this is the sixth starter. When somebody goes down or when we need a spot start, he's the guy. I'm not going to sit here and tell you Emerson Hancock dominated in his start against the Tigers because he didn't. We already talked about it on Wednesday. Wasn't a great outing by any means. But there was also some bad luck in there too. Now, this is not me saying he should have dealt six shutout.

[00:19:19] But there were three separate soft hit balls in that first inning that in a lot of worlds get caught. And if they get caught, there's a world where Emerson goes five and three. Maybe four and four. And if he goes four innings with four earned runs, that's not some lethal outing. But it keeps the team in the game. And he's certainly not getting sent back to Tacoma. So the whole way this has been handled does not make a lot of sense to me.

[00:19:45] And if they needed the bullpen help, which they did after the outing, I just don't get why they didn't send down some other reliever to bring a reliever up. There were other relievers who had thrown that day who had options that could have gotten sent down. And not throw your rotation in a wrench. Because of this, Emerson Hancock can't pitch in the Mariners rotation in his turn in the rotation until April 16th on the road in Cincinnati.

[00:20:14] It's April 3rd. And instead of having Emerson Hancock make his next start in San Francisco, huge pitchers park. And then his next start in T-Mobile, huge pitchers park. And by that point, George Kirby's probably getting close to coming back. No, now they've reshuffled the roster. You're bringing up a guy that's not even thrown four big league innings. And if you bring Emerson back in two weeks, which I still imagine they will, now you're having him thrown a bam box of a park. I don't get it.

[00:20:44] And if you need context, I'm not saying everybody feels this way. But on Brock and Salk here on Thursday, Shannon was on, Shannon Dreher. And she was asked a question. And then she said, yeah, I think that surprised some people. Which it surprised us. She made it. I thought she made it sound like everybody was shocked that that decision was made. And to hear her say that, I mean, all the people around the Mariners beat her as tied in as it gets.

[00:21:11] So to hear people say, yeah, I'm pretty surprised they decided to pull the cord on their fifth starter one start into the season as a 25-year-old. Yeah, it just doesn't feel right. And I don't even want to disparage Luis F. Castillo that much, Lyle. Because I was looking at his stats in Japan last year. This dude had a fit barely over two as a starter in Japan last year. A 2-1-1 fit in Japan last year. Season before that, it was also a sub-3 fit, by the way.

[00:21:40] In terms of run prevention, he did a pretty good job his last two seasons in Japan. I will say, though, adjusted ERA, we have our WRC Plus stats that adjust offense. ERA Minus adjusts earned run average. His ERA Minus, which goes in the opposite direction as WRC Plus does. Plus, minus stats. Get it? Yeah, it was 99-95 the last two years. So it's like about league average in Japan.

[00:22:10] But the FIP is good. Like the expected numbers for what he has done have been pretty solid as a starter the last two years overseas. You hope that, you know, enough of that can translate over that he's not going to walk a ton of guys. He generates a ton of ground balls. And hope that it works out a little bit. But that also is kind of what Emerson Hancock is at this point. And you have, I feel like, a lot more invested in Emerson Hancock's success than you do in Luis F. Castillo's success. Yeah, you do.

[00:22:40] You absolutely do. Emerson Hancock was a number six overall pick and still has value in the organization. Clearly, they value him as the sixth guy behind the best rotation in baseball. So, doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. I don't think we can spend that much more time sitting here and dissecting Luis F. Castillo because he's never made a start. We need to see him pitch. There's not that much on the guy. But we obviously wanted to inform the people, if you hadn't heard, who's now going to be making these starts the next couple times through.

[00:23:08] And just kind of offer our opinions of this is very head-scratching what happened with Emerson Hancock and how they decided to handle this. I'll tell you why, though, he was not inserted into Emerson's spot in the rotation. Because if that was the case, then Emerson wouldn't be pitching until the 19th if he used to come back in Toronto. Right. Interesting. So, they did this so it worked out with everyone.

[00:23:33] So, Bryce and Brian, if you were thinking about how the math works out, they were going to pitch on regular rest even if they pitched on Friday, Saturday. That would have been fine. And then Logan would have pitched. Yeah, Logan would have been on regular rest. Luis, the Rock, Castillo would have been on regular rest. But then the next time through the rotation, when you're back at home this past week, this next week against the Astros, Bryce and Brian would be pitching on three days rest. And you don't want that early in the season.

[00:24:01] So, you're going to have to have somebody up at that point. But the nice news for the Mariners is they have off days on Thursday the 10th as well, along with Monday the 14th. So, for Miller and Wu's sake, there are more off days built in. So, they will get some rest. So, that's nice. Yeah. But we'll see what happens with Emerson and Luis F. Castillo as now Emerson goes back to Tacoma. Oh, speaking of the Miners really quick because I know we're going to move on here in a minute.

[00:24:27] We were talking about unveiling our new structure of podcast episodes with the Monday, Wednesday, Friday. I'm assuming – we've talked about this a little bit – that we're going to put our prospect of the week and then our Russell Wilson up for the week on Fridays. Those are Friday segments. So, at the end of the mailbag episodes, that's where we'll put that stuff. Obviously, that's not going away. Those will become staples. We like to talk about the minor leaguers, and we certainly like to rip umpires. So, those will be on Friday. Shantaro Fujidami wins it this week.

[00:24:58] Well, can't give it to Neftali, so – I've got to give it to one of my token guys. I feel like it might be Ben Williamson. He's looked pretty good so far. How's he hit? Well, he's had back-to-back two hit days. Oh. And his defense has been good. So – I hear the Mariners in a third baseman. Yeah. And actually, Harry Ford's been off to a hot start too. So, shout out those two. That's a very informal prospect of the week this week. So, there you have it. Go us.

[00:25:26] Okay, now the meat of today's episode, Lyle. What everyone has been tuning in for. How – What? Well, you're right. And that is what we're going to get to after we just talk to you guys for just a minute about our friends over at Pagotch's Pub 85. Because Final Fours this weekend and Mariners season is all back in action. So, if you need spots to go watch games with your friends, head over there. And while you're watching games, you know what you can do? You can play pool. You can play darts. There's a really cool jukebox in there. And there's 20 TVs in the place.

[00:25:56] So, if you want to go play around a pool, you're not going to miss the game. TVs will be right in front of you. It's a really fun spot to hang out. There's good food. There's good drinks. There's good drinks, especially during happy hour, which are 2 to 6 p.m. on Monday through Friday. Drinks are $3 and $4. Those are awesome deals, you guys. So, if you want to plan a night or a day with your friends, go watch some games and have a fun time. Go over to Pagotch's Pub 85 over in Kirkland. All right. Now we're ready. Now we're ready? All right. Let's rip the Band-Aid off.

[00:26:25] How worried should we be about the Mariners' offense so far? It's fair to have concern, right? If you want me to put it on a level of 1 to 10, you can't scale it too far in one direction with it being 7 games in. You just have to see a little bit more. I don't think you can really put it past 5 yet, right? I mean, anything more is a little too extreme, I would say. It's not even summer yet. They haven't even played on the road yet in a real hitting environment.

[00:26:55] No. Like, that's a real thing. Look at these first... Let's do some math here. 7... What's the amount of games in the first 5 series of the season? You have 4 in... You have a 4-game series and 4-3-game series. Would you like me to... Would you like me to just read it? Read it. 16? In the first 5 series, you asked, right? Yeah, it's 16 games, right? 7, 10, 13, 16 games. Yes. Woo! Woo! Okay.

[00:27:24] In the first 16 games of the season, they're playing in all of them in two of the worst hitting environments in baseball. Mm-hmm. So, like, yeah, they're going to struggle to score some runs. Yeah. Like, that's going to be a thing. But what's also a real thing, Lyle, is looking at this and just looking at some ranks, I think there is... There are somewhat legitimate reasons for people to be concerned when you look at it and you say, well, Lyle, they're 26th in runs scored. They're 29th in average.

[00:27:53] They're 18th in on-base percentage. They're 25th in slugging percentage. They're 23rd in OPS. They're 18th in WRC+. 24th in strikeout rate. 28th in average exit velocity. And then an expected batting average, which correlates with quality of contact. They're 28th, Lyle. So not only are they not hitting the ball hard, but they're also not making contact with the ball that much. So, Lyle, I do have some concerns in that area.

[00:28:23] For every good reason. I said any concerns about the offense are warranted because people already have their guard up. People saw what this offense was last year and it wasn't pretty. Now, we know it's seven games in and like you said, they're playing in two bad hitting environments and cold weather areas to start the year. But the A's didn't seem to have the hardest time in the world hitting at T-Mobile Park.

[00:28:47] I'm not saying it's easy because everybody struggles at T-Mobile Park and I don't want to miss... And I don't want to skew that. But the A's had offensive success. The Tigers had some offensive success. So each of the Tigers and the A's had one good offensive outing in Seattle. Yeah. And I guess the Mariners had one in their own right. It just came in a loss. There you go. Right. So, like... It kind of works out. It does.

[00:29:15] But all those numbers you laid out, you're not going to read too much into it seven games in. But it does, off the eye test and off the numbers, look very unchanged so far. And just know for this fact, when you consider the run scoring environments, the Mariners have not been a top half of the league scoring team at home by runs scored since 2016. That is a long time. That is Jerry DiPoto's entire tenure. It's his first year.

[00:29:44] And as we've talked about, that was arguably his best team back in 2016. They were a top 10 offense and pitching staff that year by ERA and runs. Right? Do I have that right? It's close. You wouldn't put 2022 ahead of 2016? Well, just by the raw numbers. Okay. To be fair, that 2016 year, both Robbie and Nelly had monster years. Exactly. Like, 2022, you're right. Made the playoffs.

[00:30:13] But, you know, 20... By... Again, by runs scored and runs allowed, it was pretty solid in 2016. That was a good offense they had. It was better than the one they had in 2022. I was laughing because they... In 2018, which is also heartbreakingly one of the best teams we've ever watched as Mariners fans, Lyle. Lyle, they were 28th and runs scored at home that year. Well, the supposed good team. Yeah. Robbie missed a lot of that year, unfortunately. Yeah, he did.

[00:30:40] And it's easy to poke holes through this current Mariners offense, as we highlighted earlier on in the episode. When you look at how the winning runs were scored in three of the games, you had the Polanco and Randy home runs on opening day. You had Julio's go-ahead home run on Sunday in a game where they had zero runners in scoring position. Zero in that entire game. And then you had Colt Keith dropping the ball. You had Kreidler dropping the ball in center, not coming up with that play on Robles. Right? So like, you can easily poke holes in seven games.

[00:31:09] Let's see how the next seven games look. Maybe it'll be a little bit better. Will it? Or would you like to inform the people who they'll be facing? It's easier to say that when it's context neutral. But when I add in the context that some of the starters they'll be facing over the next week and change include Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Jacob DeGrom, and Nathan Evaldi.

[00:31:42] It's not great, Lyle. In 16 short games, we're going to find out a lot very quick because that's essentially two games out of their next nine where they're not getting a dude on the mound. Now, is there a world where Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, and Jordan Hicks could all scuffle and have bad starts this weekend in San Francisco? Sure. I mean, Verlander's 45 and Robbie Ray still is less than a year removed from coming back from Tommy John.

[00:32:11] And Jordan Hicks can get erratic at times for as hard as he throws and as good as his stuff is. But the other side of that is they can absolutely go out and dominate. Robbie Ray misses a ton of bats, as we know. Justin Verlander's dominated the Mariners for years. I'm glad you mentioned that, Lyle. Would you like to hear Justin Verlander's career numbers against the Mariners? Oh, they are absolutely dominant, but go ahead. 39 games started.

[00:32:41] 260 innings thrown. A 2-9-8 ERA. Yeah, that's pretty good. 260 innings at a 2-9-8. Let's see. I'm curious how that stacks up with some of his other best opponents. While you're looking at that, I think it's fair to say, by the time we do our second Monday

[00:33:07] episode ever, which by the way, if you skip part of this podcast and didn't hear, we're going to three episodes a week. Monday, Wednesday, Friday, starting this upcoming Monday. We're fired up about it. Anyway, at the end of that Rangers series, we're going to learn a lot. Because the Mariners go through a gauntlet here early in the season. They're going to have to face a lot of really good arms. So they're going to be battle tested. We know they don't hit lefties with change-ups very well and the soft junker baller lefties

[00:33:37] all that great. But they're also about to face a bunch of aces. Or if not aces, aces isn't fair. There's not that many true aces in the game of baseball. There's only a handful. But they're about to face a lot of very, very good starters. Good stuff. Very good stuff. And in hitter environments that are not friendly, you're going to play three in San Francisco and then six in a row at T-Mobile Park again against really good pitching. Is Robbie Ray going to break his flair back out after watching what Springs and Sears did?

[00:34:07] Maybe. Remember how good it looked in spring training in 23? It looked unreal. Is he still throw it? I hope he does. Before he got hurt. That thing was unbelievable. Unless the Giants looked at it and said, oh yeah, maybe that was the reason you got Tommy John. Unnecessary stress. Did you see in his first start he had like five perfect innings? Yes. Yes, and I also know there's no room for him on the roster with everyone healthy. It doesn't make sense. Couldn't have made some other moves if they had him on the roster. I get it. I know.

[00:34:37] The Mariners also have Luis F. Castillo starting on Friday. Look at the mood of this. Look at the mood of this podcast on April 3rd. Let me cheer everyone up with a more fun stat, Lyle. You know there's actually a team who he's dominated more and thrown more innings against. One actually. The Minnesota Twins. I'm talking about Justin Verlander. He has a 276 ERA and 267 innings against the Twins. Well. That makes you feel better. Let's give ourselves a pat on the back. We deserve it.

[00:35:07] Not the worst. No. No. I want to actually highlight now throughout the lineup a couple of guys where I'm feeling good about them. A couple where I don't have an opinion yet because I want to see more. And a couple guys where I'm concerned. You down to go through this exercise with me? Let's do it. Okay. Two guys I'm really excited about so far. And I think this is pretty much a consensus. Randy Rosarena. Jorge Polanco. Randy Rosarena's batting average is not going to tell you that much so far. He is hitting 174.

[00:35:38] But his OPS plus or WRC plus is right around the 150 mark. He's hitting balls extremely hard. He's already got a couple of home runs. He looks pretty locked in so far. If you want to use OPS. Randy has an 843 OPS through seven games. He has looked really sharp at the plate. I'll just keep rattling. Okay. And then the second one is Jorge Polanco who missed the last couple days because he was on paternity leave.

[00:36:07] But in the games he's played so far, he's looked really comfortable. So to see those guys who had their struggles at points last year. Obviously Polanco probably the highlight of that. But to see them really clicking early on, that's a good sign. You're going to mention a couple of these other guys. But let me do a broad stroke statement here. Because I was a little surprised when I saw this. Based on the Mariners run productivity through the first seven games. I was kind of surprised when you click through WRC plus and look at the Mariners roster. The core for the most part has hit.

[00:36:37] Right? Yeah. Most of your solidified core. has been good to great. I'd say by WRC plus standards offensively this season. Right? In a very small sample. But that's been the case. Now there are going to be two of these other guys that you're about to highlight. I'm not going to spoil it for you who have not. Two specific names. But the rest of the core. You mentioned Julio. You mentioned Randy. Those two. Those guys have hit. Like they've hit pretty well.

[00:37:06] Raley's hit. His WRC plus is pretty high this year. Like you know again small sample so things skew. But you expect the Mariners core to hit. They would be productive offensively. They haven't been productive offensively. But their core by some of the advanced metrics has produced. However by the standard metrics. If people are interested in that. It is funny to look at. So Jorge Polanco is hitting 400 so far. Which is awesome. Again he has missed a couple games. But he's hitting 400.

[00:37:34] The next highest batting average on the team right now. Is. Well Dylan Moore if you count him hitting 375. But among the regulars. I'm looking at the regulars. The second highest average after Jorge Polanco would be Victor Robles at 214. And aside from him there's nobody even hitting 200. Speaking of Victor Robles. Of guys who have not been producing offensively. By again advanced metrics. You would think Robles would be hitting better. But he's not. No.

[00:38:04] But him and Cal are the second bucket of this. And they go in the category of. Guys that. One I just want to see more out of. And two I'm not overly concerned about yet. Cal Raleigh. Is a little bit of a slow starter. I don't know if it's been highlighted a bunch in his career. But he does start a little bit slow. That happened last year too. Am I worried about Cal Raleigh? Not in the slightest. I think we know exactly what he's going to be. And who he's going to be by year's end. And I think we know that he's going to heat up as time goes on. Cal Raleigh I'm not worried about.

[00:38:33] Victor Robles. There's a little more variance there. Because obviously he doesn't have the track record that Cal does. And we know that until last year. Hadn't had much offensive success in his big league tenure. But. I have liked Robles' at bats for the most part. Yes. He hasn't had a ton of hits fall yet. But. He's had two doubles. He almost left the yard for a home run in the first weekend. He came up clutch in the Tigers game against Tarek Skubal of all people. So. You're right.

[00:39:01] The metrics don't favor Robles yet through. Again. Seven games. But. Robles isn't up there striking out a bunch. And putting together bad at bats. He doesn't look overmatched. And I think that's important for him through seven games. For a guy that they're really depending on at the top of the order this year. I think he is going to be alright. Let me hear your last two guys. Because I have some more I want to say on Robles. But I don't want to take away any of your time. Okay. You sure you don't want to just do it now? Or you want me to.

[00:39:32] Well. I mean. It's part of like a separate point. I would say. Okay. Not about his overall offensive productivity. More of like the team philosophy. Okay. I'll. I'll separate these guys a little bit. Julio is one. And I know by the numbers. Especially by OPS. And WRC+. He's been good. Look. He had the big home run on Sunday. That won the team the game. And it's probably boosting his early season stats a little bit right now. That's helped him.

[00:39:59] But there's other things you have to look for in a seven game sample. You have to look at how the bats look. You have to look at how comfortable they look. Because there's just not a big sample to go off yet. And what worries me about Julio is. We are seeing some repeat habits already. Specifically that off speed stuff. Off the plate. He is still chasing. And I'm not saying Julio is never going to strike out. He will probably always have some strikeout. And some swing and miss in his game. Just might be who he is. But.

[00:40:29] It can't climb up to 28% or that level. In 2025. It has to come down. And two. The chase just has to come down. He swung. Like. He didn't just swing at bad pitches last year. He just swung at a lot of pitches. He had a tough time laying off pitches last year. And it's happened throughout his career a decent bit. And you see those breaking balls low and away. And he just continues to bite at them. And chase after them. And if he doesn't. Like I'm sorry. If he doesn't learn.

[00:40:59] And doesn't adjust. And can't lay off those breaking balls. There is going to be some cap to who he is as an offensive player. And I saw a couple people on Twitter make this same point. So. I'm not the only person to notice this. But there is going to be some cap on him as an offensive player. If he can't lay off those pitches. Because that's always how he's going to get pitched. It's because he needs pitchers to throw him balls in the strike zone. If he's going to constantly swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. Then pitchers just have less intention of throwing him a ball in the zone.

[00:41:27] I'm going to use the most extreme example possible. But why is Javier Baez falling off so much? Because pitchers realize they could throw him a pitch anywhere. And he'll swing at it. And his offensive productivity. While he used to be able to get away with that. When he was a little bit younger. I'm sure his bat speed was a little bit faster. Now that he had gotten older. Those habits caught up with him. And now he's bad. It's a bad habit to have. That's why players cannot. For the most part. Sustain themselves being undisciplined at the plate. Especially the best ones.

[00:41:57] And we expect Julio to be the best. The Mariners have paid Julio to be the best. So that's why you kind of look at him with a different lens. I agree with you. I did see the same thing with Julio a little bit. That is something though when he's hot. He adjusts to a little bit. Not. Even though the WRC plus reflected it in the first week. Wouldn't say he was the hottest guy at the plate. Right. Didn't look the most locked in. We've seen him. And he's held to the highest standard for every reason. He's paid like that. And.

[00:42:27] Unfortunately. By the way the roster has been constructed. So much of the offense goes through him. And so much pressure is put on him. Fair or not. If he goes. This offense goes. If he's not hitting. This offense is going to have problems. So yes. He's held to a very high standard. And looking. Looking at him. Because he gets looked at the closest. He is not laying off. Balls off the plate so far. And he's just going to have to do that. Or he's not going to get enough pitches to hit. And he's going to continue to chase.

[00:42:58] And your second guy. Who. J.P. Crawford. That. Has been. A bit of a tough watch. Through seven games. And again. Let's preface all this. With it's seven games. J.P. Crawford didn't get off to a good start in 2023. Either. And then he had the best season of his career by far. So. Not to say it can't turn around. But. It hasn't looked pretty. Seven games in. He's going to.

[00:43:27] He's going to need to find a way to hit for some. Some sort of power. He's going to need to. He's going to need to find a way for there to be an argument to move him out of the nine hole. Like that's a win for this season. Right. We're having a discussion. Of where he could better help the team offensively. Besides. Sticking him in the last place in the lineup. I know he essentially gets. Treated as the second leadoff hitter right now. But as it sits through a week of. Productivity. The guys hitting in front of Julio. Are two of the least productive players on your roster. Technically.

[00:43:57] In Victor Robles and JP Crawford. It's not a. To help Julio be the best. Having those guys on base in front of Julio. Takes a lot of attention off of Julio at the plate. Speaking of. Guys throwing him pitches in the strike zone. If you have JP and. And Victor Robles on base. Causing havoc for the pitcher. And they're thinking. This entire time. There's less focus on the dude at the plate. And you're more prone to get mistakes. There's less worry with that. And there's more focus on how to get.

[00:44:26] The most talented player. In the opposing lineup out. At this point. And at this point for JP. He has. Been a below average big league hitter. For over a year now. Right? Like that's. That's now the reputation he's had. Whether or not he had earned. His past reputation. As one of the best hitters in baseball. Which he was in 2023. When you have a season like he had last year. Despite there being some good underlying numbers. The productivity wasn't there. So. You know. He's got it. I hope the pressure doesn't get to him.

[00:44:56] I hope he just. Relaxes and goes through a month of. Figuring things out. Or better yet. Just producing. That'd be great. Remember Church was on here a couple weeks ago. And he was saying. Look. Like we saw JP had a bad year last year. But. Some other underlying numbers said. It really wasn't all that bad. He just got kind of unlucky with injuries. I think we're going to learn a lot this year. About whether or not that was realistic or not. Yeah. And I was going to add that too. He obviously spent a lot of time hurt last year. But through seven games.

[00:45:25] There's things to work on. And the things he's. Done well throughout his career. He's doing well through the first week. His bread and butter has always been. Good approach. Draws his walks. Doesn't chase. Doesn't strike out a bunch. He only has five strikeouts so far. And he's walked five times. So that he's doing. But like you said. There has to be some source. Of extra base hits. Attached to his name. Because otherwise. It's going to be very hard for him. To have much offensive output. It's either that. Or his defense isn't going to need to come.

[00:45:55] All the way back. And he needs to be a. Supreme defender at shortstop. But if that supreme defense. Isn't going to be there. It's about finding some value. Somewhere in your game. For the Mariners to justify. Paying him the $11 million this year. And the $12 million next year. Otherwise. They're going to be sitting here. Talking in the offseason. About. Could the Mariners better utilize. That $12 million. Because that's what we had to do. This offseason. Because there's no budget. Right. Right. It's true. Any other.

[00:46:25] Go ahead. I was going to say. So I. So you did. Player specific things. I had some more broad stroke points. On what the Mariners. Decided. They wanted their emphasis. To be offensively. This year. The number one thing. I felt like. With the new. Hitting approach. With Kevin Seitzer. With Edgar Martinez. With Dan Wilson. Their first point of attack. Lyle. Is that they were going to try. And cut down strikeouts. How did they do. In their first week. In cutting down strikeouts. As I mentioned earlier. 24th in baseball.

[00:46:55] In strikeout rate. Over 27%. Through seven games. They did not achieve. Their goal there. Again. I will. I will. Also. I will acknowledge. They're in the park. That is. The highest strikeout rate. In baseball. Players. Of both teams. Strike out more. In that ballpark. Than they do. In any other ballpark. In baseball. So that. That part's true. But a part of their mission. They didn't get there. Number two. They were going to. Not say. Deemphasize. Homers. But they were going to. Take the approach.

[00:47:24] That Kevin Seitzer. I think laid out really well. When he was on with Brock and Salk. During spring training. Where they were going to. You know. They're not going to try. And hit home runs. They're going to sort of. Accident their way into home runs. They're going to put a really good swing. On the ball. And if the ball leaves the yard. That's. You know. That's going to be the most successful. Thing possible. But the goal is to hit the ball. Just. You know. Really hard on the line. That's. That's the goal. Right? Yeah. And. And. And with that. How have they won their game so far. Teej. With the home runs. Yeah. With the home runs. They have.

[00:47:54] Clearly with the home runs. They have. They have won games with home runs. And they have struck out a bunch. It's last year. All over again. I didn't even bring up the home runs though. I wanted to say. So. We wanted to see more doubles. I think doubles were a pretty big emphasis. That. The team was lacking a lot of last year. They only had five doubles through the first seven games. And three of those were from. Were from Victor Robles. Who by the way. As we talked about. Didn't have a good offense a week. And that is partly the park too. Even more than home runs. What T-Mobile Park really does.

[00:48:24] Is it suppresses doubles. But. If they want to score runs. They're going to have to try and find something. It'll help going to. San Francisco will help. That's a doubles park. Big gaps in San Francisco. But I'll just note. They only had five doubles this past week. Not great. Another thing they were trying to. Sort of emphasize slash build. Well. I was looking at first base. Well. They've gotten zero. Got zero productivity. At a first base. This past week. Like. Rowdy.

[00:48:53] Was put on the roster to hit. Didn't hit this past week. Donovan Slotto. Does not have a hit. In the Mariners uniform. It is going to be really tough. Even if Luke Raley hits. Which he did. He's one of those core guys. That have. Hit through this first week. It's going to be hard. For your. One of your premier offensive. Positions. To be. Productive offensively. If two of those three guys. Are not productive offensively. And that's what we saw this last week. That's. Wasn't able to produce.

[00:49:23] Neither was Donovan Solano at that point. And then the last point. You already mentioned. It was just Cal. Cal hadn't hit. So like. There were a few key points there. That I think the Mariners were trying to. To hammer home. About. About. This is what we're going to prove on offensively. And I just don't think we saw it in this first week. That's not to raise the fire alarm. But that's just to say. You know. They. Did not. It didn't. The. Fruits did not bear. In the first. Full week. After an off season. Of understanding this new regime.

[00:49:53] And it being implemented into a fresh. Season at this point. It does get to the point though Lyle. There will be a point this season. It could be May 1st. It could be June 1st. It could be July 1st. Where we look at this offense. And say. Well you can only expect. Essentially 12 of the same 13 players. To change so much. From last year. It's only so much you can expect from that point. Right. You can still hold out some optimism. Because.

[00:50:23] It's only been seven games. But there could be a point. Where we will have to arrive at that conclusion. With this roster. And I think that point is always Memorial Day. And they say that in baseball. Memorial Day is. Usually a good benchmark. For where you can judge your roster. And say. Who are we? What do we need to change? What can we potentially fix? Etc. Speaking of fix. It really is unfortunate. There was nothing they could do. About the first base position. There just wasn't. There was absolutely nothing they could do.

[00:50:52] I was sitting on that joke. Through that whole spiel of yours. Well it's good. I'm glad you let me finish it. I just couldn't. If you saw the smile. You interrupted me. Yeah. If you saw the smile on my face. Through that whole thing. That was me. Just. Just willing myself. To hold back that joke. Deep breath Lyle. Just couldn't. There's just. There's just nothing you could do. You just couldn't upgrade. First base. There was nothing you could physically do. I mean. It's sad.

[00:51:19] I'll tell you what won't allow the Mariners to be productive offensively. If they are 28th in average exit VLO. And 29th in average this entire season. That's not going to work. To summarize my point. Can't hit the ball soft and not make contact. There you go. That's my points. Can I read you one final stat and then we'll end the show? Yeah. I love stats. I'm going to read you a slash line. And. You do what you want with it. But. 286 average.

[00:51:48] 423 on base. 667 slug. That is a 1090 OPS. And a WRC plus above 200 through the first six games of the year. To go along with two homers. Now what is that? It's not a Mariners slash line. I'll tell you that. Was this Gino? Oh wait no. He had more than. More home runs than that. Yeah. You know. I wish I could tell you it was dog. But I'll just tell you. I think Gino slash line is better than that actually. But anyways. Go on.

[00:52:15] Oh I mean we could make a whole podcast episode about Gino at this point. Anyway. That would be one Pete Alonzo. Who signed a two year deal with an off doubt. This off season. Yeah. I heard it's something for the first point. He was looking for a six year deal. But then it got to a point where he was essentially asking the Mets for a contract. Yes. Dude. Dude. When this Gino trade comes to a close.

[00:52:43] Because I do not think Carlos Vargas is going to be on the roster all year. That's going to lead a podcast episode. I'll say. If there's one positive this week. Lyle. At least the Mariners finally got some value from that trade. This week they finally did. Yeah. Carlos Vargas threw a couple good innings out of the bullpen. So yeah. He threw some of the best relief inning we've seen this season. In seven games. It's true. Yeah. That trade is going to be a headliner of an episode at some point. I don't know when it's going to be.

[00:53:12] But it's going to be at some point. Yeah. It's like a Ken Fels or Jay Buhner trade. Oh. Look at you picking up on that reference now. Good for you dog. This is a good way to tie that in. I couldn't tell you what the lines of it was. But the premise. Yeah. No. If you would like Gino's slash line before we end the podcast. Oh no. He's hitting .238. On base is .360. Slug is .952. Going for an OPS that sits at .1312.

[00:53:42] With an OPS plus of .256. And he also leads baseball in both home runs and RVIs. This is where I make the joke about the Mariners needing more RBIs. But I think that just made it for me. And on that note. That just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to find all of our stuff. It's in one spot now. All in one spot. Marinelayerpod.com. It's our website. TJ did a great job putting it together.

[00:54:12] It has everything you need. If you want to watch the episodes. If you want to listen. If you want to review. If you want to go sign up for our Patreon. Which we really hope you do. We're going to be rolling out a bunch of stuff there. As time goes on here. Very, very soon to be honest with you. So get involved over there. You can also go buy our merch. That's all on the website. Again, that merch is rolling in. It's been really cool to see people getting it. So if you want to get involved. We think it looks really cool. If you want to get some of your own. Go do it. You can go do it all on our website. And if you want to find us on social media. You can do so everywhere.

[00:54:42] Across socials. At Marinelayerpod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.