Episode 226: Analyzing Monday's Chaotic Game + Peter Appel (Just Baseball)

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 226 of the Marine Layer Podcast. We welcome on our friend and Just Baseball co-founder, Peter Appel, to talk about the Mariners' start and some of the contenders around the American League. We'll also react to Victor Robles' injury timeline. He's out minimum 12 weeks and the crazy game the Mariners played on Monday against the Astros. Your guys' reminder, if you want to stay on top of all of our stuff, we hope you do, we've got one place for you to do it now.

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[00:01:28] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording on Tuesday afternoon, April 8th, Lyle. And the Victor Robles injury timeline has come out. It is going to be minimum 12 weeks. I think squarely in the middle between best and worst case scenario on this one. In the middle? Yeah. See, I thought...

[00:01:53] Worst case scenario is going to be out for the season. I thought best case is just a dislocated shoulder with no break. Right. I thought there was a world, not a high percentage world, but a world where they say Robles avoided major damage because they said they popped the shoulder back in. So, I thought maybe there could be a small percentage world where they say they popped it back in. He's going to miss two, three weeks, but we avoided a major scare and it wasn't that serious.

[00:02:22] I thought that would be best case scenario. This feels a little closer to the other end of the pendulum where 12 weeks minimum, which, by the way, that's if he doesn't need surgery at any point in this rehab. Because they said for now they think that he's not going to need surgery even though there's a small fracture in that shoulder. But things can unfortunately change. So, 12 weeks is what they expect, but there's a world where he needs surgery and it's all year.

[00:02:50] So, this feels a little more toward the worst case scenario. Do you know where the humoral head is? Nope. Nope. Yeah. I don't either, but that's where he's fractured. Dude, I didn't go to fucking med school. What do you want from me? The only reason I know half of these bones and muscles and tendons is because they're sports-related injuries. I don't know. This is a sports-related injury. No, I know. I know. But this is not a term I've heard before.

[00:03:18] And I'm telling you, I only, if we didn't follow sports, would we know what ACLs are? Yes. Eh. Didn't follow at all. You'd see something. What ACL-related things do you see that aren't sports-related? I think people tear their ACLs in a non-sports setting too. I'm sure they do. Have you ever heard of it happening?

[00:03:41] If we weren't interested in sports, I think there would be a point, there would be a much more realistic possibility that we would have paid closer attention in school and learned these things. I doubt it. Anyway, we're getting- Maybe for you. Anyway, this is a really, really, really tough break for Victor Robles.

[00:04:02] And this is why I think it's more toward the worst-case scenario because, look, it's not the worst, at least not yet, because they are expected to get him back this year. But you're now talking about an entirety of a first half without one of the four guys in your lineup that you're expected to be, that you are expecting to be one of your four best bats. And you won't get him back and you won't know what you'll have with him back healthy until after the trade deadline. So at this point, you sit here and evaluate.

[00:04:32] I think the evaluation does have to be that you need another bat. Like, they already needed another bat, Lyle. But I mean to replace production that Victor Robles is going to be missing out on. Because waiting until the deadline to see, well, do we need a bat? Do we need a bat when we have Victor Robles coming back? If you don't know if he's going to be healthy or not when he does come back or if he's going to hit well when he comes back? Because, by the way, the first week of the season, Lyle mentioned his at-bats were good. They definitely, I think, were good at-bats.

[00:05:02] Didn't look overmatch at all. But the offensive production wasn't there and he wasn't hitting the ball extremely hard through his first sample of games. We can't just go into when he gets back, he's going to come back and be productive and healthy. That cannot be a mindset that happens with the Mariners going into the trade deadline when that's around when he comes back. No, because these things can linger. Shoulders can linger. Those are tough injuries. It's not exactly the same thing.

[00:05:31] But Gabe Spire, we saw what happened when he had a shoulder injury last year. He did come back after missing a good chunk of time. But you could tell he wasn't the same. He wasn't prime Gabe Spire. And it affected him last year. So, yeah, you don't know what you're going to get now out of Victor Robles when he comes back, which is why you're going to need more offensive production. Okay, let me ask you this. Because you made a lot of points throughout your last segment of talking right there.

[00:06:00] Do people need humor today to balance out this news? Or should I just move on and we talk about the facts? Why don't we get some humor, Lyle? We do want the humor. Okay, I'm just checking. Well, TJ, you mentioned how the Mariners are going to need to add offense and go acquire some bats around the trade deadline. They're going to get a bat around the trade deadline. Victor Robles will be a trade deadline acquisition.

[00:06:29] You see how hard I'm laughing? I'm laughing. I'm laughing because there's a real world where we hear that. And I agree with you. I think we could hear that, too. The Mariners can't let that be their mindset. I think they need to make up their mind right now that at the deadline they're acquiring a bat and Victor Robles is not that. That has to be it. I don't know how you can think anything else at this point. In April, it is April 8th. April 8th you can make that declaration right now.

[00:06:55] Because there's not going to be the bats that are going to impact your lineup at the second available. Everyone thinks they're in it. But at the trade deadline, I'm anticipating someone's going to be out of it and you need to, at this point, already set your eyes on who you're going to try and acquire. Start laying some groundwork. Can I one-up you? Sure. They need two bats at the deadline, not one. Yeah, that's correct. I'm glad you said that. Because as I said, as we both said early, they already needed one with Victor Robles. But now that he's out, you need two.

[00:07:26] And if you acquire two bats and Victor Robles comes back and is really good, great. Then that's what a competitive contending roster really... Sorry, let me stop myself there. This is a contending roster. This roster can still make the playoffs. This is still a great rotation. This is an offense that at its best can be a contending roster.

[00:07:45] But to truly be a pennant contender, title contender, yeah, that involves two bats that you acquire and Victor Robles coming back and doing some form of what he did last year. Yeah. Lyle, would you like to talk about Monday night? Yeah, they won. They won. Yeah! Woo! I mean, Jorge Polanco looked great. Logan Gilbert looked great. Ryan Bliss hits a home run. They won, Teej.

[00:08:13] Like, isn't that the story? Nothing to complain about on Monday night? Nothing at all? Well, I wouldn't go that far. Monday night was an adventure. First off, shout out Jorge Polanco. Details that weren't made public until Monday is that what was keeping him out wasn't his knee, which is good. That's, I guess, glass half full, as you said in the injury reaction, glass half full is that it wasn't his knee.

[00:08:43] Glass half empty is that it was actually his side that was bugging him for two days. So a new injury, potentially, for Jorge Polanco. But he came back Monday and he had the clutch hit, which was awesome. In a situation the Mariners tried to manufacture in the eighth inning. Great. Where they actually tried to sacrifice bunt. It did work, though. Because what they did, they moved the runners over and then Polanco hit both of them in. So by the book, technically, that did work.

[00:09:10] But it was far from an uncontroversial game. Do I get to comment on the bunt or do we just have to move on? Sure you can comment on the bunt. Oh, good. You own 50% of this thing. Oh, do I? Well, I guess I do. All right, then let's talk about that. But the Mariners took the bat out of Julio's hands by bunting. Or sorry, they didn't. But the situation called for that they basically should have. This is why I can't stand bunting. It's situations like this.

[00:09:38] Even in a scenario where it makes sense, right? In some factor. Like in some factions. Not in my head. Not in my opinion. But to some people, it makes sense. First and second. Nobody out. You drop down a bunt. You move two guys into scoring position. And you have less than two outs. The other side of that is when it's second and third with one out. And your best bat coming to the plate. I was shocked the Astros let Julio hit. And it worked because they struck him out. But that felt like the easiest call in the world to put him right on first base.

[00:10:06] And if that happens, that is taking the bat right out of the hands of your best player. Like there is a million reasons why I hate bunting. Every scenario that a bunt happens, I can pinpoint something that is a problem with it. And that right there is what drove me crazy. Even though it worked. This is why I can't stand bunting. There is not a scenario that exists where I'm like, oh, this is good. Specifically because it can be as simple as every time you drop down a bunt. As Billy Bean likes to say in Moneyball.

[00:10:35] As Brad Pitt says, they're giving you an out, man. They're just giving it to you. So take it and say thank you. Especially with a team with a lineup like this. Where I know all of us don't trust the lineup to produce. So you take a lineup that you don't trust to produce. And then you give them less outs to work with on purpose. It's playing with one hand behind your back. But it did work this time. It worked. The Mariners scored the runs. Helped Jorge Polanco hit it off of Breu.

[00:11:04] Moved in a different direction and went through. But sometimes you got to be lucky to win these things. But before this all happened, Lyle, there was a situation that happened. Jordan Alvarez is coming to the plate. In the top half of the inning. With two runners on. Dan Wilson emerges out of the Mariners' first base dugout. Everyone I think assumed. The broadcast assumed. All the fans assumed. The players assumed. Gabe Spire, who was hot and ready to go in the bullpen.

[00:11:31] Assumed Dan Wilson was going to come in and get Gregory Santos. Pull him out of the game and have Gabe face Jordan Alvarez. It ended up being that Dan Wilson didn't decide until after he got out under the mound that he was going to leave Gregory Santos in. And essentially turn Gabe Spire around and push him back towards the bullpen. Doesn't eliminate Gabe. That's good. He just goes and sits back down. But it was a decision, I would say. So they decided instead to intentionally walk Jordan.

[00:12:00] And then the next batter comes up. Or Christian Walker. Next batter. Christian Walker came up and hit a ground ball that Dylan Moore fluffed at third base. There's a lot to unpack in this situation, Lyle. Where would you like to start? Because it's causing some stir. I almost feel like I should defer to you to pick. This is how I can go on a long tangent. So why don't I break it? Why don't we try and break it up a little? Why don't we start with the actual decision? Would you have rather had Gabe face Jordan as a lefty or Gregory Santos face Christian Walker as a righty?

[00:12:32] I'm going to go with option C. Because I would have walked Jordan and then still put Gabe in to face Christian Walker. Because, look, Jordan Alvarez is one of the three most terrifying hitters on the planet. Him, Judge, Shohei, that is the podium. I know Jordan's not off to a great start. That doesn't matter. Is anybody on the planet sitting here and telling you they're worried about Jordan Alvarez? No. And I know I'm not. And I take him just as seriously now as I would when he's red hot in the summer.

[00:13:02] So, with an open base, am I okay with walking Jordan Alvarez? Yeah. The lefty-lefty matchup with Gabe Spire, look, it makes some sense. And we know Spire does really well against lefties. But I still wouldn't mess around with Jordan with an open base. So does Jordan. Yeah. Just ask Robbie Ray. Yeah. So, I'm fine with the intentional walk. What I don't understand is continuing to leave Santos in the game.

[00:13:32] Is Gabe Spire better against lefties than righties? Yeah. Gabe Spire can get righties out. He doesn't have a problem getting righties out. We know he gets swing and miss. We know he gets ground balls. We know Walker through 10 games have been struggling. And Gabe, aside from Andres Munoz, is your best reliever right now. So, I would have used Gabe Spire in a situation where that's the guy you trust the most to get the out. Gabe has splits. He's human against righties and dominant against lefties. That's where the splits sit. But I'm with you.

[00:14:01] I was much more comfortable in that moment with Gabe facing Christian Walker instead of Gregory Santos. And let me tell you why. Yes, Gabe has been one of your two best relievers. And Santos did his job, by the way. He generated a ground ball to third base that Dylan Moore for some reason missed. I don't know how he missed it. But he ended up missing it and the Astros scored two runs off of it. Santos has made me nervous this season. He has, in a technical sense, done his job.

[00:14:30] He is struggling how to get the ball to go straight. It is all over the place at this moment. And he showed it in that inning. It doesn't make me feel good when you have the bases loaded and Gregory Santos does not know where the ball is going. Bad recipe. Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad. Yeah. It is a bad recipe. Because what do you even do with a guy like that?

[00:14:54] A ground ball pitcher that's looking like he doesn't know where the ball is going a lot of the time. How do you manage something like that? It's really hard. And this season, there's no threat of a strikeout. Because the situations he's putting himself in aren't good enough to generate strikeouts. So there's two other points I want to make here with this. And they do tie back to Dan Wilson.

[00:15:18] Number one, I'm scratching my head at his post-game press conference answer where he was asked about this. Which, of course, he was. All the reporters were going to ask about it. And he essentially gave a non-answer to it. But he said, essentially, we like the situation that we were in. And then added, Santos was throwing the ball well. He was? No, he wasn't. By my account, he walked two guys and threw 25 pitches in that outing.

[00:15:45] I don't think Gregory Santos was throwing the ball all that great, personally. That night. On Monday night, I do not think he was throwing the ball all that great. So, go ahead. So those are the comments. But again, Dan Wilson doesn't reveal much, right? He has not. He has not, in his time as Mariners manager, in 50-something games, revealed anything. No, he just doesn't really say much. No, he doesn't. So, let's not look into that too much. Let's look at the communication of all of this.

[00:16:12] I think that's where the real debate point lies with this. I think this is where we see the biggest difference, the first big difference between Scott and Dan Wilson. Scott always had his decisions made right away. I don't think he had to think that much. There was no gut-level decisions or anything. Gabe Spire comes into the game if Scott's service is managing it. And why is that? Because before the game has even started, they say if Jordan Alvarez is coming to the plate with runners on,

[00:16:41] at that point it was runners on first and second. Or two runners on. No, it was second and third because I was talking about how you could have intentionally walked Jordan. Right. Anyway, so two runners on. Jordan Alvarez at the plate in the eighth inning. Gabe Spire's coming in no matter what. Scott doesn't have to think twice about that decision. Dan Wilson, on the other hand, I can't seem surprised by this because this is what happens when you go a little bit more of old school in your manager and old school in some of the messaging.

[00:17:09] There's a little bit more gut reaction to things. There's sitting there and thinking about decisions in the moment. And that showed, I think, the big communication breakdown between Gabe Spire jogging in from the bullpen, who was told by the Mariners coaching staff, hey, if Jordan's going to be up late in the game, you're coming in. Now, Dan ultimately decided not to face Jordan Alvarez, and that's why Gabe didn't come into the game.

[00:17:35] But it took the decision on the mound with Gregory Santos, a conversation with him, to make that decision. So Gabe's coming out of the bullpen at this point, not aware that Dan hasn't made his decision yet until he finishes talking with Gregory Santos. Does that make sense? Your explanation makes sense. You're not confusing me. But I cannot, for the life of me, understand the decision process behind this. I just can't. There's two reasons why.

[00:18:05] Well, number one, I want to start here. You, we've been watching baseball 27 years. Have you ever in your life seen a reliever run halfway into the game from the bullpen and then have to turn around and run back? I've never seen anything like that. I've not, no. The second part of this is, if this is what Dan decided was best, and leaving Santos in the game was what was best in his mind,

[00:18:34] why is Gabe Spire up and warming and getting hot in the first place? Because that's a waste. When guys get hot, I know when guys physically pitch in games, that factors into will they be available the next night or two nights after that, etc. When guys get up and get hot and get, you know, throw a lot in the bullpen, that factors into decisions too. So Gabe getting up and getting hot plays a factor into his availability on nights moving forward. I'm not saying he couldn't pitch here on Tuesday night.

[00:19:03] I'm just saying that this all factors in, and those are real pitches that get thrown in the bullpen, and it adds mileage to that arm throughout a season when you get hot. You're right. The two runners got moved, though, on a wild pitch. Yeah, even still. So if Jordan comes up and it's first and second instead of second and third, I don't think he gets walked. And then you bring Spire in. Okay, so that would make a little more sense. Are you sure?

[00:19:33] Oh yeah, was it a wild pitch from Santos that moved him over? Yeah, dude, he was all over the place. I know. You double-checked, but... Double-check while we're looking at this, because if that's the case, then yes, having Gabe Spire up makes some sense. If not, it makes a little less sense. I think, though, the team is getting used to the communication style of how this team is going to be managed. Because, again, it clearly seems like there's a little bit more gut feel,

[00:20:01] whether or not it's going to work or not, within this management. That's how it's going to be. There just seems to be some real levels of inconsistency with decision-making early on. There's been bullpen decisions, there have been pinch-hit decisions, or no decisions. We haven't even really talked about this. Maybe we mentioned it on Monday's podcast. We haven't talked about it a lot, as you're looking. By the way, yes, wild pitch.

[00:20:31] Okay, so then let's retract that a little bit. Yes, then Gabe Spire getting up and warming up. Wild pitch and a steal, that is. So then it makes a little more sense to have him ready. Because then, yeah, you're probably not walking Yordan with guys on first and second. You still could. You still could just decide we're not going to pitch to him in that situation. And if that was the decision, was he was going to get intentionally walked, period, then that goes back to the original point of Gabe Spire shouldn't have been warming up.

[00:20:59] Now, if they were just planning to pitch to Yordan left-on-left with runners on first and second, yes, it makes sense to have Gabe Spire warming up. But there's just been some real levels of inconsistency with how games have been managed early on, and a lot of it doesn't make a lot of sense. We don't have to go back all the way to the A's series with some of the bullpen decisions or some of the pinch hit decisions and no decisions in the first two series of the year with the Tigers, as well as the A's. We don't have to rehash all that. What's a little more recent, aside from this bullpen thing,

[00:21:30] Miles Mastroboni has legitimately pinch hit two of the last four games. That is an example of something I cannot for the life of me understand. And we highlighted it on Monday's episode. If you haven't listened to Monday's episode, I'd recommend you go back and check it out. But we talked a little bit about Miles Mastroboni's struggles as a pinch hitter. He has an 8 WRC+, which actually might be higher now because he walked on Monday in his pinch hit opportunity. But it's not his strength.

[00:22:00] His bat is by far his worst tool. And right now, he is being used as a pinch hitter. Now, again, let me play devil's advocate with this just for the sake of conversation. Dan doesn't set his roster. Miles Mastroboni is on his roster. You can't use Mitch Garver as your pinch hitter because he's either backup catching or he's already in as a DH. And same goes for Cal Raleigh on his off days as well.

[00:22:30] Dylan Moore is already in the field. Rowdy Tellez or Luke Raylier is already in the field. Where was Donovan Solano at this point? Was he already in? The other night, that was who Mastroboni pinch hit for against the Giants. Yeah, that was in the Giants. What about last night? So on Monday night... See you on the bench? On Monday night, it was Ryan Bliss. Which, again, I... This is where the inconsistency comes into place, right?

[00:22:58] That, to me, says Dan's trying to get the left-on-right matchup. So he goes to Mastroboni. Well, number one... Ryan Bliss had just hit a home run earlier in the game off a right-handed pitcher. Now, maybe his splits against Abreu are worse. Or maybe his splits against sliders are worse. Because Abreu throws a really good slider. And we know that. But the inconsistency level is then pinch hitting a guy who is... Just plain and simple. Not only a guy who's never hit in his career in the big leagues. He also doesn't hit as a pinch hitter.

[00:23:28] But then he's trying to get the left-on-right matchup. And he doesn't hit righties. And he doesn't hit righties. So, you add all that in. But then there's nights where you don't pinch hit Mitch Garver to go in against a lefty. And you leave Raley or Rowdy Tellez in the game like he did a week or so ago. There... I just want some rhyme or reason to these decisions. And there seems to be a lot up in the air right now. What it looks like, Lyle, is someone who's only managed 50-something games. That's what it looks like. Mm-hmm.

[00:23:59] And guys go... Managers go through growing pains. Remember, Scott went through growing pains. Like, it happens. The problem is the Mariners haven't set the expectation that he's just a first-year manager. And you don't... As we said at the beginning, before the season started, since you named him the full-time manager right away, you don't get to just say, oh, he's like working through things. No. No. Like, once you name someone your permanent manager, you trust they're ready to make all the right decisions at this point.

[00:24:27] With a contending roster, that is. Yes. So that's where a little bit of the frustration, I'd say, with people comes in. Well, I've got to add to this, too. Especially when you decide no other candidate out there in the stratosphere, period, is worth even interviewing. Yeah. And this part is not on Dan Wilson. Dan Wilson wanted the manager job. He was interested in managing. He got the job. And he is learning. This is not a Dan Wilson thing.

[00:24:52] But when, yes, you decide somebody is so definitively perfect for the job that it's your only candidate and you interview nobody else, this is where some of the frustration is going to come from. Like you're saying, add it on to everything you just talked about. What an entertaining 11 games. 11 games and we have, we couldn't have asked for better stuff to start, I don't think.

[00:25:20] Major injury, managerial talk, roster building talk. It's great. I don't remember us getting this last year. I don't think we did. So. All I ask from the Mariners before we start to conclude this, please find a way to just win some games. Because I hope we're in the trust tree here. All his friends, all his Mariners fans, all sitting here listening to this. Okay, yeah. I'm going to, you know, I'm going to open up here. I'm going to get personal.

[00:25:49] I'm going to share some inner thoughts with people, all right? So, bear with me. We are recording here on April 8th. I may or may not already be scoreboard watching Nationals losses for how the Mariners can trade for Nathaniel Lowe. Like, this is where we're at. And we're not supposed to be here yet. We're two and a half months away from this period of time. So, I'm really, really hoping they can really get on a hot streak here and start winning. So, I don't have to use my energy toward this in the beginning of April.

[00:26:19] And you don't want to hear me tell you that the Mariners would say they already have a lefty first baseman on their roster. In fact, actually two. You don't want to hear me say that, do you? No, I would like to see them just hit as a unit with the group they do have and start winning. Yes. I'm 100% with you. Yeah. All right. Couple things before we get to our interview, which was awesome with our buddy Peter Apple. You guys, we've got our live show coming up.

[00:26:46] Second live show, which we are fired up about by the time this podcast comes out. It's a week and a half away. Queen Anne Beer Hall in Seattle. Wednesday. Sorry. We're recording and this episode will drop on Wednesday. A week and a half from Wednesday will be our live show. So Saturday, April 19th, Queen Anne Beer Hall, live shows at 11 a.m. And then after that, Mariners play the Blue Jays at 12. So guess what we're going to be doing? We're going to be sticking around to watch the game with all you guys.

[00:27:13] So we're going to have a big watch party over at Queen Anne Beer Hall, have a bunch of time, have some great food, have some great drinks, and watch the Mariners hopefully get a win north of the border. So mark that on your calendars. We're really, really excited about this. Queen Anne Beer Hall, Saturday, April 19th, 11 a.m. Live show, 12 p.m. Game for a watch party. So mark that on your calendars. And a couple of other things as well if you want to find more ways to support us. As we keep mentioning, merch is live.

[00:27:42] And an easy way to find it is to just go to our website, marinelayerpod.com, or if you just want to type it in directly, marinelayerpod.com slash merch. T-shirts and hoodies. People are getting them. People are loving them. Our friends at Mariner Mojo got their hoodies, sent us a nice tweet today here on Tuesday. It looked awesome on Joe. So if you want to see what it looks like, Joe put a picture out there on Twitter of what his looks like. And if you want one like that, you can go to our website and buy one, marinelayerpod.com slash merch.

[00:28:12] And one last thing. We added new tiers on our Patreon. So if that's something you are interested in, you have an option of having a monthly video call with Lyle and I, with a group of Mariner fans. It's fantastic. You want priority on mailbag questions. That's an option now too. All of that's over on our Patreon, patreon.com slash marinelayerpod. Which you can also find on our website. And let me just add a little bit of context to why you should go over to the Patreon now even more than ever.

[00:28:39] If you missed Monday's episode, we're now going to three shows a week, which we're fired up about. And we love to talk ball with you guys. So we wanted to add another show and we felt like it was relevant to Friday episodes are going to consistently be mailbag episodes because we love to get involved with you guys. We want to take your questions. We talk about what's on our minds all the time. We want to more consistently hear what's on your guys' minds. So if you go sign up for our Patreon and it's all in the description if you go look at it,

[00:29:07] Patreon members will consistently and always get first priority on mailbag questions. So if you have questions for us every week and you're a Patreon member, we're taking your questions first. Likelihood is your questions probably getting answered. We will still solicit questions on Instagram. We will still take them from Twitter, all that good stuff. We're not saying we won't take those questions, but if you really, really want your question answered, go over, sign up to our Patreon and send us questions. Again, patreon.com slash marinelayerpod.

[00:29:36] Well, I always love having Peter on. Do you realize how long it's been since we've had him on? Yeah, it's been way too long. It was essentially right after the Paul Seawalt trade. Wow. Yeah, that is a really long time. Here's what I recommend to pay attention for as we talk to Peter and how you listen to Peter. Peter is probably the most gambling-centric person we have on this podcast.

[00:30:02] No, not a lot of our listeners gamble, especially if you grew up here in the state of Washington. It's not as readily available as it is in a lot of other states. But if that is something that interests you, Peter is your guy. We talk about it a little bit at the start. He's a very entertaining follow on Twitter. He knows his baseball. And, you know, that's why we have to have him on. Yeah. The Just Baseball Show is awesome. I know every chance we get to talk about it, we bring it up. It's because we mean it. It is such a good way to consume national baseball content.

[00:30:32] TJ and I stay on top of national stuff all the time. We listen to the Just Baseball Show. It's part of my regular rotation of podcasts because it is genuinely three guys our age that are all friends, that we happen to be friends with as well, that know ball-like as well as anybody you can find out there, that make it really entertaining too. And Peter is a very, very big part of that. So we are fired up to get him on. We're happy to talk Mariners with him. We take a little bit of a 3,000-foot view on things for where the Mariners are at, where the league is at,

[00:31:02] especially the American League. It's a fun conversation. I think Peter provides a little bit of perspective from somebody who does this from more of a national perspective rather than all of us who are, you know, we are living and dying by this team every day. Where Peter, he gets to see it a little bit from a wider lens, and I think he offers some good perspective along with the fact he's really smart. So go listen to the Just Baseball Show if you don't. Go follow Just Baseball everywhere on social if you don't, all of Peter's content and their content in general is there, and stick around for the interview because it's really fun.

[00:31:31] We won't keep you guys any longer. Let's get you to the interview with Peter Apple. All right, we got our friend Peter Apple on with us, recurring guest, host of the Just Baseball Show, co-founder of Just Baseball, and the host of Not Gambling Advice as well. You're on a heater to start this year, Peter. Does it have to do with that hat you're wearing? Key, watch on YouTube. You can see Peter, a Yankee fan, wearing his Mariners cap today. Well, I had to represent Seattle Nation.

[00:31:58] Met you guys finally at the All-Star Game about two years ago now. It's crazy to say it, but it was back in 2023. We were just talking pre-recording about how much I love T-Mobile. And I'll give some credit to the hat for the heater. Why not? I mean, it's definitely not me. I'm just getting lucky, so it's got to be something else. I forget. Have the Mariners contributed to that at all? Absolutely none yet. Nope. So, yeah. Not fading or not betting on, just having... Actually, no, that's a lie.

[00:32:27] Brian Wu under four and a half hits in his debut at home. Six innings, three hits, one run. Absolutely, the Mariners have been helping. Listen, I'm quite literally going to give Not Gambling advice sitting right here because I don't know... I know almost nothing about placing bets, but I feel like a lot of Nerfies on the Mariners' offense would probably hit. The problem is that BetMGM and company, they make them like minus 200 because you're right. Absolutely. They hit all the time and the books know that

[00:32:55] and they're like, well, you're going to have to pay a pretty penny to do so. Fair. For some of our listeners who aren't familiar with the term Nerfy, as Lyle just mentioned, no runs in the first inning, meaning the first inning has to be scoreless on both sides. So you think about it, it makes sense. Well, the Mariners' leadoff hitter just got announced. Victor Robles out 12 weeks. The Mariners have arguably the best rotation in the baseball. It seems like the perfect formula for them to not score any runs. Do you add no runs first inning to this streak?

[00:33:24] Is that part of the strategy? I don't bet Nerfies at all. They're foolish bets. They're coin flips. I mean, yeah. So much fun. Everyone loves them. My opinion on it is I like winning more than quote-unquote fun. I feel like people have just been ingrained to think that bets that rarely hit are fun because they're quick and short. I don't really like that. I like my bet to unfold over an entire game. So I don't parlay. I don't do home run parlays. I don't even bet home run hitters. No Nerfies. None of that.

[00:33:53] You guys know baseball is a long season. It's really hard to cap those coin flip type bets. And over the entire season, I hope to be sitting on a pot of gold. But the way to get there is not by betting Nerfies, not home runs, not parlays. I think what the most fun bet is is just winning. That's the best. If you want to know the difference between Peter and I when we gamble, I don't gamble that much. I think all of our listeners know I don't gamble on baseball.

[00:34:18] But the last times I have gambled on baseball, I believe the last time was at Yankee Stadium. Peter, in your stomping grounds, it was Yankees-Astros. Me and I believe one of my other friends, maybe multiple other friends, bet the Nerfie in that game. We're like, okay, why not? There was just a no-hitter the day before, right? I think the Astros were coming off a no-hitter. This was 2022. So we put that money down. Jose Altuve within the first three-pitch home run in the first inning. Exhibit A.

[00:34:47] It's brutal. Yeah, I will say for anybody that wants to check out Peter's gambling content, if you haven't already, it's all across all the Just Baseball socials. He's doing it every single day. And whether he wins or not, there is logic and really well-thought-out logic behind all of the picks you make. And you make sound decisions with these things. Yeah, you're not doing the crazy daily parlays or prop bets or anything like that. It's usually picks throughout a game that make logical sense with facts behind it.

[00:35:16] But that being said, before we wrap up the gambling part of this, have you changed your strategy at all this year? Or have you just rode with what you continue to know and it's just changed for you early on? Kind of. Like a little bit of both. I think it's the same type of system that I've been using the cap. This year, different than last year and in previous years, is I've just wanted to stay more disciplined. Less picks. Only going with my absolute best bets of the day.

[00:35:44] There is this feeling that people want to get out more picks. And bet more games. Because people enjoy it. And if you enjoy it, good for you. Right? I don't necessarily enjoy that. Again, I'll go back to my first point. I enjoy winning much more. I hate to lose. Hate to lose. So for me, going into the year, knowing that it's a seven-month season, like so many people put so many bets on the board, because they almost treat it like basketball or the NFL, where they only have a certain amount of time. There's 15 games on a board. It's seven months straight.

[00:36:14] And it's every single day. So I don't have to overextend myself. If I don't love something, I just don't bet it. Over the previous years, I might see a small edge, because I run a model and, you know, I get my projections and then compare those to the books. And I make bets based on how big of an edge my projection has versus what the book's projected as. And in previous seasons, I would be like, uh, not a big edge, but doesn't matter. I want to make the play anyway. I stop that. I have to show a big edge.

[00:36:43] My brain has to fully agree with it. And then I'll make the play. If my model likes it and I don't, I don't bet it. If I like it, my model doesn't, I don't bet it. So I think the biggest difference between this season and in other seasons, discipline. Now, Peter, because you bet a lot, you have to bet all the teams in baseball. You have to talk about all the teams in baseball on the Just Baseball show. It means you watch a fair amount of Mariners baseball as well, even despite us being all the way over here on the West Coast.

[00:37:11] What have been your observations from what you've seen from them here through the first, at this point, 11 games? I think there's plenty of observations, but one that I'm really excited about is Julio Rodriguez. Because Julio Rodriguez is a player that stirs the drinks for the Seattle Mariners. He's the guy that everybody keys in on. And when Julio is not going, this team doesn't hit. Now I know they're not even off to a great start, but Julio is. And I think that's good to see.

[00:37:39] So that would be probably my number one takeaway. Number two takeaway is how good Logan Gilbert looks early. And number three takeaway is how good Brian Wu looks early. I know he's coming off a bit of a tough start against the San Francisco Giants. I know that. But his first start was awesome. And you can clearly see improvements year over year for a guy like Brian Wu. And the command is still impeccable there. So I would say the top stars are doing well. And that's about it, unfortunately.

[00:38:08] I mean, four and seven, there's not a lot of great takeaways. This team has not been that entertaining to watch as shitty as that might sound, right? They're just, you turn on the game, you're hoping for a good outing from the starting pitching because the offense just doesn't put it together consistently. And this is a trend that you guys have experienced now for a long time. And it's got to stink year over year to expect something new

[00:38:35] because the lineup on paper is not that bad, guys. It's really not that bad. But yet they just underperform. And it's tough when you do play 81 home games in the worst park to hit in in Major League Baseball. Where do we want to start with this? You know what, I'll start with the positives because you did highlight a couple of positives. And I'll stick on the Wu thing. He gave up the home run Sunday to Jastrzemski. Honestly, it was basically that one pitch

[00:39:05] that derailed the whole outing. Like the first four innings of that start, he was cruising. And then that one pitch, Jastrzemski, there we go, just happened to hammer. So on your point, like yeah, Julio's been great. Logan's been great. And I think people more or less expect that. But to see Wu continue to develop is awesome. Because I think that guy's upside is an all-star. And like a top. Yeah. Through the roof.

[00:39:31] It says he's as talented of a pitcher as there really is. Now, of course, he's still young. And we do remember that drafted out of Cal Poly, this guy was not a top prospect. The Mariners bring him in. And you can just see it's getting better and better and better. And for him to stay healthy, I think, is the most important part. Because you know when he's on the mound, he's going to give you guys a chance to win every single game. Even if you only put up three, he can allow one or two. And the bullpen. The bullpen has been good for Seattle. Except for one thing.

[00:40:00] They're not striking anybody out. Like I don't think Gregory Santos even has a strikeout yet. I think I saw a tweet from you guys. And I noticed watching the game. And like Andres Munoz has that strikeout stuff. But seven walks per nine in his first couple opportunities, that's not something we want to look at as well. So yeah, I think the bullpen is good. It's going to get better. They're going to start striking people out. But that is something that I noticed kind of early. Where's Logan Gilbert's ceiling at now? I mean, you can't name it.

[00:40:29] It's like when these guys are this good, the ceiling is whatever they make it. Because as long as Logan Gilbert stays healthy, I mean, it's 100. Starting pitchers don't just do that like normally. He is one of the few pitchers in the league who could throw a 100-mile-an-hour fastball with two elite breaking balls. What is that AL Cy Young field like this year? How do you stack it up? So it's hard not to say Scooble's number one. Right? Fair. Won it last year. I think Garrett Crochet is number two

[00:40:59] because I think it's arguably the best stuff in Major League Baseball. DeGrom, if he stays healthy, we see how talented he is. I could hear Gilbert at number four. Absolutely. I think that's probably where he'd stack in right now. Sure. And at least Logan, I'd assume Logan's going to get over 200 innings. I can't see DeGrom getting anywhere close to 200 innings. DeGrom would need to be, he would need to be his, what, 2021 self, essentially, to have less innings. Yeah.

[00:41:29] And be over Logan Gilbert, I would say, at that point. So I would say that's the case right there for Logan Gilbert to be at least on the podium. And then, you know, we talked about preseason, Logan Gilbert's key to winning a Cy Young this year. Just give up less home runs because that's what Tarek Scooble did last year. The difference between Logan Gilbert and Tarek Scooble on a volume basis, on a strikeout basis, was the fact that Tarek Scooble gave up 12 less home runs. If that can be the case, then it's, you know, I think it's a toss-up at this point. And I think the only time when,

[00:41:58] and you guys correct me if I'm wrong because you've watched more Logan Gilbert than me, but when I've noticed that Logan Gilbert is giving up those home runs, it's when he's like maybe down in the count and he's like, screw it. I'm going to test you with my fastball at 100 and they clip it. That's like that. That is something that can be changed. You know who has a problem with that? Pablo Lopez with the Twins. I haven't seen him all the time where they just clip these 95-mile-an-hour fastballs. The difference with Gilbert and why I understand he's like, screw it. I'm challenging you. It's because he throws 100

[00:42:28] and he has confidence in his stuff, right? And maybe I'm wrong about that. You guys correct me if I'm wrong, but I do feel like those are the times when those home runs are allowed. So it's just about getting ahead in the count and he ain't allowing shit. Logan's always going to give up home runs. It's been a thing his entire career that he's been hit hard. That was his biggest problem when he came up as a rookie and it continued really up until last year. I mean, last year, he laid off his fastball the most, but he gave up, I think, just as many home runs on his slider. It might just be part of his game

[00:42:57] because he's going to pitch up in the zone and guys are going to get to elevate. He's not out there chasing ground balls, which I think is more of, I'd say, a difference between Scooble and not that Scooble's chasing ground balls, but he generates more of them than Logan Gilbert does. More of a fly ball pitcher, but when you pitch in T-Mobile, like you can get by that. And it's like, you know, we talk about this on the Just Baseball show, like we hold these guys to different standards. So like Logan Gilbert has a home run problem compared to the best pitchers in the America League, right? So it's like he doesn't actually have

[00:43:27] a major home run problem that we got to fix because he's still going to pitch to an ERA under three, but that would be his one weakness. And going back to the DeGrom point that you were talking about the innings, totally agree with you. There's like, I think that, right, if you look at the data, Logan Gilbert's better. He just is. He's more available. He's been incredible. I think there's just the allure of DeGrom. Like we know what he can be. And I know that's a division rival, so maybe Mariners fans in the comments watching this are like, no, Logan Gilbert's better.

[00:43:57] I'm totally fine here in an argument that Gilbert's better. Tell me if I'm wrong on this. I feel like if DeGrom were to win a Cy Young this year, and it's certainly in the realm of possibilities because who's ever going to doubt what that guy can do? It would almost have to be a 2021-esque Corbin Burns season, right? Where he doesn't throw that many innings, but he's just absolutely lethal and dominant in the innings he does throw. I mean, think about it. Paul Skeen's almost won the Cy Young last year. I mean, almost, but he was close. And he had 130 innings. So I think if DeGrom is pitching to,

[00:44:27] you know, a 2-1 ERA in 150 innings and he's striking out 30% of batters and the Rangers win the division, yeah, I could see that. That would be the way that DeGrom is winning a Cy Young. But I totally agree with your point. That's the way he's going to do it. It's not going to be the Gilbert way where it's innings after innings and domination. I mean, not to the 2-1 ERA level, but a 2-8, it's well within his future. Sure. Peter, when watching Julio from the Mariners fan base perspective,

[00:44:56] there's some relief watching him get off to a hot start and hit these home runs early, something he has never done in his career. He's never hit three home runs faster than he's hit three home runs this season. That's how Mariners fans feel. Do you feel that same relief? Do you feel like others around baseball who aren't Mariners fans feel that? Absolutely. That's why it was my first takeaway. Right? Like, that's immediately first thought that came to my head is when I've been watching Mariners games, seeing Julio and seeing it from the power, that's got me excited.

[00:45:26] Because Julio is such a good hitter that it could be us three batting behind him and he can lead us to some wins. That's how hot he can get. Now, it hasn't gotten to the fiery level so far this season that we've seen, but to get off to a hot start, right? It just, you can take a step back and be like, I think we're going to be okay. Right? Four and seven is a bad start. Whatever. It's so early. Everyone in the American League West has a negative run differential right now. It feels like, oh, you know,

[00:45:55] we're starting so slow. People got to relax, of course. Like, we'll check back at the All-Star break to see how the Mariners are doing, but to see that going well, to see Gilbert, to see Wu, even to see Castillo be pitching well. Right? Like, Kirby's going to come back. We're going to be okay here in Seattle. This is exactly why we bring you on, to have the bird's eye view, 3,000 feet up national perspective, because I shit you not, the consensus around town is 11 games in, season's over.

[00:46:25] I totally get what you're saying. I'm a Yankee fan. We're 6-5. Carlos Carrasco just gave up four home runs. I'm ready to fold in on the season. We're 6-5. Like, the fan brain makes no sense. You know, it's boom or gloom. I don't even know the saying. So I totally get where you guys are coming from. But what I will say is, like, looking at watching all the games, right, because I just, I love baseball more than the Yankees. So I love watching all 30 teams, big inning on every single second.

[00:46:55] Right? I bet on the White Sox-Guardians game today. Like, I'm watching all baseball. So when I watch the Mariners, I still see one of the better teams in the American League. I do. I do. So we still got Raleigh. We still got Julio Rodriguez. I think Luke Raley is going to heat up. I still think Randy is a good hitter. Sucks what happened to Victor Robles. But Dylan Moore is off to a great start. The pitching is great. And the bullpen looks good. We will be fine. Where on this Mariners roster would you say you're disappointed?

[00:47:24] I mean, Rowdy Tellez is horrible. I mean, like, I guess, like, that would be the one. But I wouldn't say, like, I'm disappointed with anybody. I guess you could say the Emerson Hancock experience has clearly not gone well for both the Mariners and Emerson Hancock, a guy who's just gone kind of up and down. Rowdy Tellez would be one. I wish they would just say Mitch Garver learned first. I know Mitch Garver's not off to a great start either, but that's what I wish. But no, like,

[00:47:54] I wouldn't say there's any disappointment so far. You could just be disappointed in the results, but it's early. Okay. I mean, that's probably, like, the reasonable take to have. I will say, like, yeah, I mean, the first base thing's warranted because that's what was circled basically all winners as is this going to get addressed? And that is going to be a revolving door for them this year if something doesn't change, whether it's Garver, whether they call Locklear up, et cetera. Yeah, like, they're going to have to find

[00:48:23] some production out of that spot. So, no, you're right on with that. So, like, yeah, yeah, I get it. Yeah. I mean, it's, oh, go ahead. I was going to say, so I would say some of the other storylines, I guess, coming out of the early part of this season. From a spending perspective, I know everyone loves talking about spending, so we can talk about spending. The Mariners did spend a little bit, and they extended Cal Raleigh. Where do you, and I'll add on context to that, is that I think they bought themselves,

[00:48:52] at least in their eyes, a little bit of a positive reputation when it comes to spending. I'm curious where you would rank the Mariners in terms of spending frustration in the league. Top three. I mean, you guys know that. Okay. I mean, how can you not? Because, you know, number one is the Orioles, because we even talked about this a little bit before we started, before we pressed the record button. It's one thing that, like,

[00:49:21] you guys knew going into it, probably not going to spend. Maybe, but probably not. The Orioles fans got a new owner who came in and said, we are really going to start to spend here. Imagine that. Imagine someone buys the Mariners, gives you guys hope, and then doesn't spend again. So they're number one. The Pirates are probably number two. Now the Mariners are probably number two. Because it's the same conversation. You have this rotation.

[00:49:50] How often do teams have a rotation where one through five can be an ace on any given day? The Dodgers, the Phillies, they spend, right? You have a bullpen with Andres Munoz closing. You have good arms in there. You have an offense that clearly needs help. And you couldn't even make the Pete Alonso deal? I mean, Pete Alonso wasn't paid like a ton. Can you go above and beyond? I still think about that Andrew Friedman quote. Like,

[00:50:20] if you, if you, you know, I forget the actual quote now that I'm thinking about it. I'm like, I love this quote and now I'm forgetting about it. But basically, if you don't find the market correctly, like, you're going to finish third on every single free agent, right? Or if you value a free agent correctly, you're going to finish third on every free agent. So go above and beyond for one bat that you know you need out of position that you know you need. Yeah. So, yeah, they're probably second. Yeah. Let me play devil's advocate on this for a second though. Like, you're completely right, Peter.

[00:50:50] Like, contact with the context of the situation. Totally agree with that logic. But let me lay out, like, the Mariners had spent, they now extended their catcher in Cal Raleigh. They extended Julio Rodriguez. Two pretty sizable extensions for their own players. I know there are teams in baseball that would not even do that. Clearly. The Rays, the Pirates, giving, like, would the Rockies do that? But, you know what? Before you even answer this question, let me cut you off.

[00:51:19] You don't believe this at all. You're just trying to play contrarian. I'm generating conversation. Like, it's true, right? The Mariners need to spend more money. But they're not the worst. No, they're not the worst. Okay. Let me ask you guys this. Do you want me to hold the Mariners to the standards of the Rays and the Pirates? No. Absolutely not. So if you want to be held to the standards of one of the best teams in the American League, somebody that can make some noise, I'm going to hold you to those standards. And deservedly so. I'm not just pulling it out of my ass.

[00:51:48] You guys are a good team. You have a great staff. You have a great fan base. You've got a great stadium. You have a history of winning. I mean, the Dodgers are going after your record. 116 wins. So we're just supposed to be like, oh, well, the Pirates have a lower payroll. So we shouldn't be blamed for not spending. Are you kidding? Yeah. Yeah. What standard do you want to be held to? Because I can just be like, yeah, I mean, the Mariners are a fun little team. And like, hopefully you guys finish fourth this year. No, we want to win the division.

[00:52:19] We want to spend. So I'm going to hold you to those standards. Yeah. Good. Okay. You should. And I'm glad you clarified. And that's what you meant by the history of winning. Oh, they won 116. And it's like, yeah, you know, the rest of it. Well, that's another story. It's not me carrying water for the Mariners not spending. Just, you know, pointing out, I guess, the rest of the league. And to your point, Peter, like you mentioned the Pete Alonzo thing. I mean, you're spot on with it because the two guys we circled basically all winter. We circled Pete

[00:52:48] and we circled Christian Walker because they needed a first baseman and those are veteran first baseman. And then I know Walker through 10 games is not off to a good start. I'm not really worried about him, but he goes right in your division too. So like another gut punch. Exactly. Like I'm not saying, like if Vladdy became a free agent, even though he just signed that extension with Toronto, I wouldn't expect you guys to pay 500 million for that. And I wouldn't, you know, be like, oh, why didn't the Mariners get in on that? I understand that's not in your market. Pete Alonzo's in your market. Christian Walker's in your market. I won't hear anything about that.

[00:53:18] So that's why I just get upset at the Mariners. And to your guys' point about, well, they did extend Cal Raleigh and they did extend Julio. Of course they did. What do you mean? Like, you need to extend somebody. How about the catcher who has been a platinum glove winner and hits 30 home runs every year in a park that nobody hits 30 home runs in or the five tool generational center fielder? Mm-hmm. So those shouldn't be just, hey, we signed him so I know we spend,

[00:53:48] you're better. Like, that should be a, that should be the floor. That should be the absolute floor for Seattle. Right. Like, you're right. That's what I said. Like, the Raleigh extension is a good start. It's a good gesture. Yeah. But it, and while everybody loves that Cal's gonna be around a long time, it doesn't move the needle that much on opinions around here because I think it's, you need to do more. That is a guy that's already on the roster and I'm glad he's gonna be here but you gotta add from outside. I'm glad you said that because two things can be true.

[00:54:17] Good extension and the Mariners still need to spend more. Mm-hmm. Like, both of those things can be true at the same time. So, I agree with you. Great that they locked him up. Good for the fan base. Good for Cal Raleigh. Good for everybody in Seattle. Still, you need to spend after that. Let me, let me transition just a little bit before we actually get on to another subject here. Where would you rank Cal especially from somebody who covers this nationally among catchers in baseball? I'm kind of putting you on the spot. Third.

[00:54:47] Okay. I'd go William Contreras one. I still think Adley's two and then Cal Raleigh's three and like, definitely three. And I could hear an argument for two. Mm-hmm. Not one. I just think William Contreras is too damn good. But, I could hear it over Adley after a rougher season last year but he again, like Cal Raleigh's been putting up these five wins season lately. That's what Adley did out the gate and then had a down year and it was a four win season. So, I'm still going to put Adley two but Cal Raleigh definitely three.

[00:55:17] Where do you think the Mariners stack up in the division this year? Second. Behind. I still do. I mean, I think Texas is number one and I think the Astros are going to take a step back. Like, the Astros can't hold a candle to your guys' pitching. They can't. And it's not like the offense is as scary anymore without Bregman or Tucker. I mean, we were just talking time in, I don't know, a decade or something where I'm not afraid of the Astros. So, like, I had the Mariners going into the season winning 86 games and I still believe in it.

[00:55:47] I got the Astros at 85 and I got the Rangers at like 88. So, I don't think any team is going to win 90 games in this division but I think the Mariners will have a shot at the playoffs. What's the separator for the Rangers? Is it the rotation? It's not exactly the rotation. I mean, it's that, like, they're 8-2 and they haven't even hit yet. Their offense can get crazy. And then again, I have much more faith that they're going to go out deadline time and add, right? They need some bullpen arms and they're probably going to do it.

[00:56:16] I'm not so confident that the Mariners are too. So, it's not even just about the roster today, it's about what the roster will look like when games start to get really important. What do you think the consensus is with people that are all of a sudden very, very high on the Rangers this year? Like, for example, I heard Jeff Passan just recently say the Rangers are his pick out of the American League. Two years ago, they won the World Series, right? And, like, all credit to them. Last year, they also took a big step back and, like, their offseason was fine. Like, yeah, Jock Peterson, yeah,

[00:56:46] Jake Berger, those moves are fine. But, where do you think it comes from where people are, like, way back in on them again? I think, well, the team won the World Series in 2023 and it's mostly the same squad, right? And now you have DeGrom and you still have an offense with Seager and Simeon backed up by Jock Peterson. You say the offseason was fine. I thought it was a pretty damn good offseason. Like, even getting Robert Garcia in that bullpen as well. I mean, this offense from one to nine can really, really hit and he's probably,

[00:57:16] a part of his point passing is probably Wyatt Lankford taking that big step and it's hard not to watch Wyatt Lankford and totally agree with him. So, if you have Seager and Simeon and Lankford taking a leap and Jock Peterson being one of the best bats against righties and with a super deep lineup and a rotation with a lot of boom potential and we're two years removed from them winning a World Series, I get it. I get it. I'm not as high. Like, people are calling the Rangers the best team in the American League.

[00:57:45] I'm pumping the brakes. But, in this division, I do think that they're slightly the best team. There's not that much separation between the top of the American League and the Mariners, right? I'm just rolling the teams out right here. So, it sounds like you're not a believer in the Astros, so that would include the Rangers, the Yankees, the Orioles, anyone from the Central? I mean, I still think the Royals are a good team. I think the Twins have, I mean, the Twins are either the best team you've ever seen

[00:58:14] or the worst team you've ever seen. I mean, like, you say being a Mariners fan is tough. Go ask a Twins fan how they're doing. I mean, they get hurt every single year they get. They're having a tough time over there, too. I mean, the Guardians, you can't count them out. I think the Red Sox are still good. But, yeah, it's the LeBron East without a LeBron, if that makes sense. those Eastern Conference standings or whatever, I don't follow the NBA, so I don't know the lingo, but the East, like, was an objectively bad conference for a very long time.

[00:58:44] I kind of view that in the American League, but there is no LeBron running through it. There's just a lot of teams that are like, maybe. Is it the Yankees? No. We're not that good either. We're okay. Why not? I mean, the rotation, have you seen it? Like, you guys can go five deep. We're like one and a half deep right now with Garrett Cole not pitching, Luis Heal on the mend, and Clark Schmidt's going to come back soon, but it's like, I mean, we got Stroman and Carrasco

[00:59:13] in our rotation right now. I like the offense. I mean, the offense has been good. I think the bullpen is good. We're still a good team. I'm being too hard on my team, but anyone can beat us, like, 100%. All right. You're telling me those bats didn't save the season. I'll buy into the narrative for fun, but no, I got to see it extrapolated over 162 to actually have an opinion on it. Fair. Are they going to trade for Sandy, by the way, just while we're on the topic of your favorite team? We don't have the prospects

[00:59:42] to trade for him. It's three years of a cheap Sandy. Like, to give you a perspective, someone put out a Will Warren, George Lombard Jr., and Spencer Jones. That's like the best package we can put together. Yankees Nation was no, never. How could you even offer that? And I'm like, that doesn't get it done. Like, that's our best offer. I don't, that doesn't mean the Dodgers offer. That doesn't beat the Mets offer. That doesn't beat

[01:00:11] the Orioles offer. That doesn't beat the Red Sox offer. So, our wildest offer finishes sixth. I mean, Arm's saying we have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. What are you supposed to do? Well, you make a decent point. All right, last one I got for you to tie it back to the Mariners. I'll leave it pretty open-ended. The Mariners have a successful season moving forward if they do what? Make the playoffs. Okay. And for them to make the playoffs, they've got to do what? You've got to win 86 games, I would say.

[01:00:42] And I think, I mean, you could say you guys might have higher standards, I don't know, but, you know, you want to win that playoff series. That would be like a stamp success on the season. But if they make the playoffs, I think Mariners fans should be like, all right, good season. Yeah. Okay. Do they need to add somebody to the roster? Yeah. They've got to add offense. They have to. I mean, the thing is, I still think

[01:01:11] they can make the playoffs without it, but if you want to make real noise, of course you've got to add a bat. Okay. Well, Peter, they're going to add Victor Robles at the trade deadline. Perfect. That sucked. I love watching that guy play. That really stinks. He's awesome. Peter, appreciate it as always. Again, you can check out everything Peter does on Twitter, co-founder of Just Baseball, host of the Just Baseball show. And if you need some not gambling advice, Peter's your guy. So Peter, thanks so much.

[01:01:41] Thanks for having me, boys. We always love talking to Peter. If you want to stay on top of all his stuff and all of Just Baseball stuff, again, you can listen to the Just Baseball show. You can find them across social media, Instagram, TikTok. They're huge on those platforms, YouTube, et cetera. And you know what I took away from Peter? Mariner season, stamped, not dead and not over. Really? Well, that's good to know. Well, glad some people

[01:02:10] can keep us in check. Yes. Contrary to popular belief in this city, season's still going and we're only 11 games in. As I said to Peter while we were recording that, that's why it's nice to get some national perspective from a little bit of a wider lens sometimes. Sometimes, sometimes you can just take a little bit of a step back. This is why we make it an emphasis for you not to only hear us because it would be a different narrative. Yeah, a little bit. Just a little bit. All right, let's take a quick pause here. We're going to talk to you guys about our friends

[01:02:40] over at Pogaccia's Pub 85. That's over in Kirkland. If you need Mariners games to watch, season's in full swing now, you guys. We know you don't just sit and watch the games at home all the time and when you're not at the ballpark, you're probably looking for fun places to watch. So head over there. Plan an outing with your friends. There's great food. There's drinks. It's a great environment. There's pool. There's darts. There's a big jukebox in the place. It's a really fun place to hang out. The people there are great and if you go during happy hour, drink specials are three and four dollars. Three and four bucks from two to six p.m.

[01:03:10] on Monday through Friday. So maybe you're planning to show up for a 640 game and you want to get in on some happy hour deals. You show up a little early. You get some great specials and then you hang out to watch the game. All of that is over at Pogaccia's Pub 85 in Kirkland. All right. That just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to stay on top of all of our stuff, it's all on our website, marinelayerpod.com. Whether you want to listen, you want to watch on YouTube. If you watch on YouTube, by the way, please hit that subscribe button.

[01:03:39] Drop the video a like. You can leave a review. You can go buy our merch. The merch is flying off the walls. We, you guys are the best. We appreciate you. We hope it keeps trending that way. That's over on our website. And a couple more announcements. Again, a couple more reminders for you guys. First live show of the regular season and our second live show period, April 19th, Saturday at Queen Anne Beer Hall in Seattle. Again, Saturday, April 19th at Queen Anne Beer Hall. Live shows at 11 a.m. So show up for that

[01:04:09] and then stick around. We're going to do a big watch party at 12 p.m. for Mariners Blue Jays. It's all at Queen Anne Beer Hall. We cannot wait. So go do that. Go subscribe to our Patreon if you want first priority on mailbag episodes because we're going to three episodes a week. We're doing mailbags every Friday. So go sign up for that. We would love to take your questions and would love to interact more with you guys and see you guys get involved. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.