Episode 250: What Level Of Greatness Is Cal Raleigh Ascending To?

[00:00:00] Tired of the price of everything going up these days? Groceries, rent, you name it, it's all going up. But not at Metro. They've got your back. Metro has lowered their prices and are giving you a five-year price guarantee on talk, text, and data. One line, now 20% lower. Family plans, also lowered. Oh, and you also get a free 5G phone. All with no ID required and no activation fees.

[00:00:24] Stop by your neighborhood Metro store, visit MetroByTMobile.com, or call to find out about their amazing offers. Bring your number not available if currently at T-Mobile or with Metro in the past 180 days. Guarantee covers monthly price of on-network talk, text, and 5G data for customers activating on an eligible plan. Exclusions apply. Details at MetroByTMobile.com. Welcome to episode number 250 of the Marine Layer Podcast. A lot more to react to from this past weekend. Another insane few games of production from Cal Raleigh.

[00:00:53] We're really, really at a loss for words, but we'll try and contextualize what we're seeing from the Mariners backstop through two months. We saw Bryce Miller's return on Saturday. And I think the last few games or last week really as a whole highlighted the needs the Mariners had in the bullpen. We'll take a look at where they're struggling and some potential spots they can upgrade into the next few weeks and next few months of the season.

[00:01:16] Here's your guys' reminder. If you want to stay on top of all of our stuff, it's all over at our website. That's MarinLayerPod.com, where you can find everything. We would love to see you guys go get some merch. It's all over at our website. Keep rolling it out. Keep wearing it around the park. We love seeing it. So go get your merch over at our website. You can sign up for our Patreon. You can find our live show schedule. That's all over there. Episodes are all over there.

[00:01:39] So again, if you want to stay on top of everything we're doing, that's over at MarinLayerPod.com. And you can find us all across social media as well at MarinLayerPod. Let's get it rolling.

[00:02:03] And we welcome you to this episode of the MarinLayer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network, recording on Monday evening, June 2nd. I think the most thankful thing for the Baltimore Orioles today, Lyle, is that Cal Raleigh could not hit a home run against them. Well, we're recording this on an off day, so yes. Right. So that's why they're thankful. Sure.

[00:02:27] I'm going to make a prediction because people are going to watch and listen to this episode after a game's already taken place between the Orioles and the Mariners on Tuesday. But we're recording this on a Monday. I think Cal's going to hit a home run on Tuesday. Again? Yeah. Who's pitching for the Orioles? Let's see this. But at some point, Cal has to not hit a home run in some game. Yeah, you would think.

[00:02:54] And then he faces one of the three worst pitching staffs in Major League Baseball. Dude, the Orioles are... I mean, we haven't really gotten a chance to talk about him yet because these two teams haven't squared off. I guess we've talked about him a little bit in passing. O'Lyle. Oh, is it Cole Irvin? No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Not that. Not that version of O'Lyle. It's Tomoyuki Sugano. So if our friend Peter Apple can get a hit off of him in 10 at-bats, George Kirby's hitting a dinger.

[00:03:25] So for those who either didn't listen to our episode with Peter from a few weeks ago, or if you just haven't heard Peter say this, Peter Apple, our friend of Just Baseball, has pretty famously stamped at this point that he himself, who is now just a full-time podcaster, content creator, co-owner of a business, has said he could take Tomoyuki Sugano deep right now. Now, Tomoyuki Sugano's got like a sub-4 ERA.

[00:03:54] I think it's about 3-3. It's 3-2-3. So, Peter, listen. If you can fly out to Seattle and suit up this week, go right ahead. Because you know what? The Mariners need offense behind Cal Raleigh. And if you think you're taking Sugano deep, I'll take any runs the Mariners can get. I'm guessing you're not going to be very expensive either. No, wouldn't be. I don't think you'd be very expensive.

[00:04:20] Let's just do a quick check of where the Orioles pitching staff ranks as we look at how productive Cal Raleigh can be this week. Right now, the Orioles, Lyle, as a pitching staff, 28th in ERA. Let's see. 28th in FIP. Collectively, as a staff, Lyle, the only staff that has less value war-wise is the Athletics, who are right now as a pitching staff worth zero wins above replacement. The Orioles have only been worth half a win.

[00:04:49] And I only think they got into the positive recently. That is unreal. What's funny about the Orioles, too, is them and the Mariners got clumped together a lot in terms of who had the worst offseason in baseball. The consensus nationally seemed to believe it was the Orioles and the Mariners. The difference is the Orioles actually spent a decent chunk of money this winter. They just didn't spend it very well. They spent a lot of money on Tyler O'Neal. They spent money on Tomoyuki Sagano.

[00:05:18] They spent money on Charlie Morton. It's not like they didn't add people and spend money on people. They did. It just didn't feel like the best use of their resources where the Mariners just didn't spend money, period. But the Orioles used some of their resources and then still run out one of the worst staffs in baseball. Well, Corbin Burns got hurt over the weekend.

[00:05:42] And I think there's not a lot of optimism for Corbin Burns because he mouthed coming off the mound in Arizona. I think my elbow is done. So maybe that wouldn't have been a smart way to spend their money. But, yeah, it definitely didn't work out for the Orioles, Lyle. And I would anticipate this Mariners offense, which didn't have a great month of May collectively, can find a series where they're going to hit.

[00:06:09] Now then again, you and I both said, okay, against the Nationals they're going to hit. They had one good offensive game against the Nationals and two subpar offensive games against the Nationals. And huge shocker. A big reason they were so productive in that one game against the Nationals, Lyle, was because Caleb John Raleigh. Thank you. Two home runs. Yeah. That'll usually do it. So before we get to Cal Raleigh, because he is certainly going to take up a chunk of this episode,

[00:06:37] deservedly so, let's just do a couple quick housekeeping things. Number one, the Mariners did technically trade for a reliever today. It was for a lefty named Joe Jakes from the Dodgers. And that's the end of that segment. Congratulations. And they traded Will Klein back to the Dodgers, who I think some people did want to see. He throws hard. He was doing okay in Tacoma. Like, he was throwing hard. Well, if you look at his Prospect Savant page, which, by the way,

[00:07:05] for anybody listening that likes to use Baseball Savant and is curious to see what guys are doing in the minor leagues, there is a website called Prospect Savant where you don't get the reads on everybody, but it has it for some guys. I want to say it's for AAA only. AAA and high A, I think. Do the other two leagues just not have it yet? Let me see. Let me try looking up time. Like, I tried to look for Colt Emerson. I don't think he was on there. Are you sure? Okay, then maybe it might be low A.

[00:07:34] I thought I didn't see Felney either. I thought it was just AAA. Anyway, we're going to get sidetracked. Will Klein has some very good underlying numbers, and he just didn't really get a chance with the Mariners, and I guess the Mariners feel like they weren't really going to use him, so the Dodgers are going to take their shot, and the Mariners feel like they need another left-handed reliever, so there you go. Again, do you know what's going to get you? The Mariners don't feel like they're going to use you. You have an 18% walk rate.

[00:08:04] Oh, is Klein up that high? Yeah. Yeah, so that's not going to— Everything else is good, but if that number is going to be there, yeah, the Mariners— One of the few things the Mariners have still done really well as a bullpen this year is not walk batters. They tried it with Ryan Stanek last year, and given that they salary-dumped him at the deadline instead of letting him pitch out the rest of the season, sort of tells you how they feel about that. Right. And scene. Lefty Joe Jakes is a Mariner. I just don't want to spend too much time on him

[00:08:32] when we have, obviously, a lot to talk about in this episode. So, that happened. Also, long, long overdue, Randy Johnson is going to have his number hanging in the Raptors for the Seattle Mariners. That was pretty cool. Here on Monday, they announced on Monday morning, this is happening. It's going to be in 2026, and Randy talked about, look, I don't want to overshadow Ichiro's year and his own retirement ceremony, which was pretty nice of him. So, in 26, they're going to retire his number,

[00:09:01] and they're going to have two different 51s retired inside T-Mobile Park. The original idea, though, I think they floated, was to have them both retired at the same time. Yeah, I think that happened. Well, that happened a few years back. That came from the Mariners. See, that came from the Mariners, right? That's not what they wanted. This is the right way to do it. It is the right way to do it. What they're doing right now is the right way to do it. Each were such legends in their own right, have such a history,

[00:09:31] like, have such a mark on the Mariners franchise in their own perspective, or in their own, you know, respects. Don't clump them together. Like, let them have it be separate. And by the way, Alex Mayer tweeted this out today, and it's from the Mariners game notes, but the Mariners are not the first team to retire two guys with the same number. In fact, they're pretty far from it. It's not that uncommon. So, yeah, this is the right way to do it. When you have two guys who are arguably on your Mount Rushmore of all-time franchise greats

[00:10:00] wearing the same number, just retire them separate. That's what they're going to do. That's pretty cool. And Ichiro then came out after this, and he told the story of what, or was it, no, Randy told the story that Ichiro called him to ask for his permission to wear 51 when he came over. Right. I think that's how it went down. So it's going to be fitting that they're right next to each other. I think it's pretty cool. I don't know why anyone would get mad that you retire a number two different times. No. So what?

[00:10:28] Both guys are too legendary to not get their flowers. They just are. Yeah. No reason not to. So really cool for Randy. He's going to have a really special moment next August, I think. That's when they do this. August. August. And he, I mean, I'll spend 60 seconds on this, but he claimed on Monday during that Zoom call that, man, he has a different memory of how his time ended here. He said, yeah, the Mariners offered me, or the Mariners didn't offer me a contract. I wanted one.

[00:10:58] I was happy to stay, but they didn't. And what was I supposed to do? Yeah. I mean, that was so long ago. Like, there could be some truth to that. I'm not trying to call Randy like a liar. I did. I talked to my dad about this, who was about as diehard of a Mariner fan as you can get, who was, you know, alive and functioning unlike myself before Randy got traded. And he's like, yeah, I don't really think that's how it went.

[00:11:27] Randy was, yeah, trying to get traded. So I'm not going to, I don't know. So I'm not going to claim anything as fact here. I'm 27 years old. I was not coherent or alive. I forget exactly the day he got traded to really register any of this. But yeah, I don't know if I'd make that big a deal about it. It is a funny quote, though, for people who probably are unaware. And they're like, oh, yeah, of course the Mariners would do that. I don't know. It's just interesting.

[00:11:55] It's interesting to hear Randy's perspective on it all these years later. It is. Yeah. Again, I don't know what the real story is. And it's kind of too bad because on a national scale, the fact he won four Cy Youngs in a row down in Arizona, which is ridiculous to say in its own right. But the fact he won four Cy Youngs in a row down in Arizona, sometimes I feel like overshadows what he did in Seattle. But I talked about it in our social post today. Just between he made five All-Star games.

[00:12:24] He won a Cy Young. He nearly won a second. He finished top 12 in MVP voting twice as a pitcher, by the way. So he did that. He had a 300 strikeout season. He had multiple 200-plus inning seasons. And I said it in that video on social. But most of all, I mean, he helped save baseball in Seattle. We're not a 1995 and relive the glory days podcast. In fact, we're far from it. We usually sit on here and say this franchise needs to make new memories.

[00:12:54] I don't want to hear about 30 years ago anymore where they lost in a semifinal. We'll say that pretty often. However, when you are talking about the story of Randy Johnson, it is only right to acknowledge that if he doesn't pitch the way he pitches and performs the way he performs, yeah, we might not be sitting here doing this podcast right now. Because Seattle may not have a baseball team without him. If only they managed to keep him, Lyle. Oh, my God. You and I were sitting and talking about this pre-recording.

[00:13:22] They literally had the greatest, arguably greatest center fielder, DH, shortstop, and starting pitcher of all time on the same roster. At the same time. Yeah. And didn't make a World Series. They didn't make the playoffs one year. I know. In 96. I know. Like, how is that possible? This is why, again, this is why. So we had Adam Ray on back in November.

[00:13:50] And we were up against the clock a little bit with him. So we didn't get a chance to push back on this enough. But Adam was talking about this is why you can't ever forget 1995 because, like, for a variety of reasons. And people talking about how it saved baseball. And it was, like, the first real magic memories in the Mariners' history books and everything. Which is fine.

[00:14:11] The 27-year-old perspective on it, and I'd say the Gen Z perspective on it, is we sit here and say, great, but that was 30 years ago and they didn't make the World Series. Like, they didn't win it. They didn't make it. They lost in the semifinals. Yes, it's technically called the ALCS. But if you want it in lamest of terms, they lost in the semifinals. So, again, when you hear the Gen Zers talk about that they don't want to hear about this anymore, this is why. Because you want new memories to be made.

[00:14:40] But I'll go back to it again. When you talk about the story of Randy Johnson, like, it has to be acknowledged. And that season has to be acknowledged. And the story of the Seattle Mariners franchise cannot be told without Randy Johnson. I think that's where it ultimately all comes down to. And those numbers that are hanging out above left center field, like, that's what that is. Do they have room for two more? Is that what it is? There's three up there. I think there's room for two more. Have they said there's room for two more? Or are we just, like, guessing based on space?

[00:15:10] Well, guessing based on space. Yeah, that's, I mean, that sounds about right. Again, if they need more room, I mean, they would probably put some above the bullpen too. Right? Oh, that could be. Yeah, I'm looking at it right now. They should have room for two more. And honestly, after these two, I don't really know when you're going to need another for a while. At some point, they'll probably retire Felix's number. So, maybe that's one. So, then who would occupy that next spot? Would you put Kyle Seeger there?

[00:15:41] Kyle Seeger put Kyle Seeger there? Look, he doesn't have to show up. But you could still put his number there. I mean, there's a real world. Like, the Mariners would try to tell Kyle Seeger they're retiring his number. And all of a sudden, they roll out the red carpet for his retirement night. And magically, he doesn't show up.

[00:16:07] So, if you look at it just by war, Kyle Seeger right now is number seven. That one's going to take some time. I think it may be a little while before. Like, I don't know if they'll really retire it or not. But even if they did, it's going to take time. And objectively, A-Rod should be up there too. But they're not going to do it. Just so stupid. Again, like, I'm sorry he took more money to play somewhere else? Well, that never happens in baseball.

[00:16:35] Here's a borderline take, Lyle. Is J.P. Crawford going to earn a spot there after the season's over? And he's top ten in war in the Mariners franchise? I don't think so. Again, that's why I still think the Seeger thing is iffy to begin with. Great career, but he doesn't quite feel like somebody whose number you'd retire. Like, isn't he in the same boat as somebody like Jay Buhner? Buhner's number's not retired. 15 wins separate the two.

[00:17:07] So, that's what I mean. You're talking about putting Seeger in a category of Randy, of Griffey, of Ichiro, of Felix. Probably not. So, that answers the question of the only other person you could think of to retire their number would be A-Rod, but they're not going to do it. Right. And Felix. And Felix. I mean, and that's not counting anyone of the current group. Again, if there is probably a leader in the clubhouse right now, it's the guy we're about to talk about. In terms of who would get his number up there. But we'll get to him in a second.

[00:17:36] But yeah, I mean, I feel like those five. The five guys at the top. Griffey, Edgar, Ichiro, Felix, Randy. Feels like a pretty solid five to put up there to get the ball rolling. And then, after they put up Ichiro and Randy's numbers up in left center field, then once they start to retire more, they can find some other space, I'm sure. Tired of the price of everything going up these days? Groceries, rent, you name it. It's all going up. But not at Metro.

[00:18:06] They've got your back. Metro has lowered their prices and are giving you a five-year price guarantee on talk, text, and data. One line, now 20% lower. Family plans, also lowered. Oh, and you also get a free 5G phone. All with no ID required and no activation fees. Stop by your neighborhood Metro store, visit MetroByTMobile.com, or call to find out about their amazing offers. Bring your number. Not available if currently at T-Mobile or with Metro in the past 180 days.

[00:18:35] Guarantee covers monthly price of on-network talk, text, and 5G data for customers activating on an eligible plan. Exclusions apply. Details at MetroByTMobile.com. I'm sure there's a lot of space hanging around the ballpark. I don't think we'll have a problem with that. Yeah. Speaking of that guy that you're referring to on this team, how about Cal Raleigh? Where do we even want to start? I keep waiting for him to get cold because Cal Raleigh's been so hot and cold in his major league career.

[00:19:04] He'll go on these streaks where he just mashes all these home runs. But then he'll have his spurts where he'll strike out a decent bit and the swing and miss catches up to him. And it just hasn't happened in two months this year. And I thought he had a great home run season last year. And he had 34 bombs. And it was great. He's like 10 home runs ahead of his pace from last year right now. That's insane. Ridiculous. Ridiculous. What's the stat?

[00:19:33] Like, it's Cal and Ken Griffey Jr. are the only American League players with 22 home runs at the end of the month of May? Yeah. Was that the stat? What? I don't even know how that's possible. But yeah. AL players, yeah. How many? I'm going to go. You talk. I'm going to go look at Aaron Judge. What do you want me to say? The guy's ridiculous. I don't know how much you want me to dive into here because I know there's, like, points we're going to hit throughout this segment.

[00:20:00] But if you just want some more Cal numbers, you just mentioned how, yes, him and Junior are the only AL players to ever hit 22 homers before the start of June. If you want one other crazy Cal rally stat, listen to this one. This was tweeted out by Greg Harvey. This was on Twitter. And he said, primary catchers in the last 50 years to lead MLB in home runs outright at the end of the day on June 1st or later.

[00:20:24] So there's three catchers to ever do this, like you said, in the last 50 years to lead Major League Baseball in home runs on June 1st. Salvador Perez, Carlton Fisk, and Cal Raleigh. That's it. Aaron Judge in 2022, when he hit 62 home runs in a season, at the end of the month of May, had 18 bombs.

[00:20:52] I will say, though, that that season did start a week later than Cal's did. April 8th. So, technicality. Well, you know what we need? If Cal starts approaching 60-61, we need the return on Twitter of Roger Maris Jr. to talk about how Cal Raleigh is the second, like, Cal Raleigh is the number two single season home run king in baseball history. It's Aaron Judge and it's Cal Raleigh. That's it.

[00:21:19] He's going to be up there actively rooting against Cal Raleigh because, like, there are only Yankees allowed up there at the top. That's it. It's like, but Roger, you know, there's somebody who hit 73, right? Oh, no. Aaron Judge is the all-time leader. I have the most bonkers Calstead of all time for you. You want to know why he's hitting all these home runs? Remember when Joe Doyle came in and says, no one understands how he's getting pitched quite like Cal Raleigh.

[00:21:47] And I think that has given him the ultimate advantage because he realizes that I know exactly what I need to do to hit home runs and I know exactly how I'm getting pitched. So when I see the exact pitch I need to hit for a home run, it's getting hit for a home run almost every single time. Cal Raleigh leads all of baseball when it comes to pulling fly balls in the air. That is the ultimate recipe for hitting home runs. Get the barrel on the ball.

[00:22:16] Get it in the air to the pull side. Cal Raleigh is doing this 40% of the time. He had been good at it in the past. In his past seasons, it's 27%, 33%, 30%. And this year, it's 40% of the time. It is bonkers. He's getting his foot down on time, getting the barrel out there, and getting in front of it and just whacking it out to right field. He's not messing around with center.

[00:22:43] He's hit an oppo home run this year, but he's not trying to hit opposite field home runs. This dude pulled power in the air. And it is. Until today when Shohei Otani hit another home run, led him to leading Major League Baseball in home runs. You can do an update on the stat we tweeted out last week where Cal Raleigh was pacing for a 9.9 war season, which would have eclipsed 2012 Buster Posey.

[00:23:08] It would have eclipsed 1997 Mike Piazza, 1972 Johnny Bench, and some of the other greatest catching seasons of all time. So when I'm joking around that the Mariners need to make space for number 29 out there in left center field above the pen. When you put together a season like this, it's not the craziest thing ever. If he does this and then he has a few more good seasons, we're talking about Inner Circle Mariner.

[00:23:37] We're talking about someone who went from good Mariner to Inner Circle Mariner in a season. Yeah. Which is nuts. We're going to be talking about him as one of the best players in all of baseball. A catcher. Again, we're not talking about him among catchers. We're not comparing him to William Contreras and Adley Rushman despite the down year or Sean Murphy or whoever. No, he keeps this up.

[00:24:02] We are comparing him to Judge, to Shohei, to Acuna, to Soto, to Harper, to whoever you want to comp him to. Like that's the conversation he's about to be in if this continues. And he's going to be catching. He's catching more than pretty much any catcher in baseball, which we've talked about. He's essentially solved his right-left platoon split. He'd always been much worse as a right-handed hitter. I had the numbers down here.

[00:24:31] OPS by season as a right-handed hitter. 734, 645, 696. 1018. He jumped his OPS 300 points as a right-handed hitter this season. And even his left-handed swing, which had always been really good, had taken another like 60% jump up in production this year. Which is crazy. The right-handed one, I think, blows it out of the water for me.

[00:24:57] And the fact that he has 1,000 OPS from both the left and the right side. And someone tweeted this at me. The last person to do that in a season, to have 1,000 OPS as a switch hitter from each side, was Chipper Jones in 2008. Chipper Jones had a really good season that year. It's a pretty crazy company for Cal Raleigh. Pretty insane. We could sit here and rattle numbers off all day. Like this is what dudes do, right? We just throw numbers out there. Like, oh, isn't that pretty cool?

[00:25:25] I'm about to do something else that dudes do a lot. And it's going to feel... I mean, I'd debate it if I even want to bring this up. Uh-oh. It's a little first takey. But it did get my mind. Okay, Stephen A. I mean, it did get my mind thinking a little bit. If Cal keeps this up, you talk about we're talking about him as an inner circle mariner.

[00:25:50] Like, are we starting to talk about the potential of being a Hall of Famer? He's got so long to go, yes. But catchers don't do this. And if he has a four or five year stretch where it's anything close to this, where he's actually going to be one of baseball's best players, I mean, it's hard to push by the wayside. Here's what I'll say to that.

[00:26:17] But first off, he probably needs eight more seasons minimum. Right? Let's start there. He doesn't need to do eight seasons of this, but he needs to play and be good for eight more seasons at least. That would put him at 13 seasons. Is that my math right? Sure. Close enough. Let's say he needs to get to 13 to 14 seasons. Not all as a catcher, but he needs to do a majority of them as a catcher.

[00:26:43] Right now, this season on baseball reference, he's worth a little under 15 baseball reference wins above replacement. Now, if you look at the threshold for catchers in the Hall of Fame, it is lower from a war perspective because they don't get to play as much. Right. And they don't have the volume and they wear down quicker. My statement on this will be that Cal Raleigh is having a season right now that is of the quality of a Hall of Fame baseball player.

[00:27:14] Well, that does not mean that Cal Raleigh is yet a Hall of Fame baseball player. Well, that's not what I'm saying. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. No, but sorry, like this, even having one season like this does not put you on pace for the Hall of Fame. Hall of Fame requires longevity. Well, of course it does. Yeah. And there's plenty of guys that had one huge year and then just don't do it ever again. You want to use Justin Morneau as an example, like he won an MVP.

[00:27:39] I'm not saying it always happens, but like I'm looking at Joe Mauer's first couple of seasons. So his his war in his first three full seasons, 2.8, 5.8, 3.9. And if you want to go to Cal Raleigh's first three full seasons, it's 3.9, 3.4, 4.7. So if my math's right, Mauer would still be a little bit ahead. But that's what I'm getting at.

[00:28:07] Like like Joe Mauer did not take much. I mean, Joe Mauer was pretty easily voted in. He was a he was a first ballot guy, right? He wasn't second ballot. Here's I think the threshold for Cal. I have the Hall of Fame catchers pulled up right in front of me. The average wins above replacement for a Hall of Fame catcher is 53.7. But I'm not looking at that. I'm going to go actually a little lower. Buster Posey's career wins above replacement is 45. Right. I think that's the mark.

[00:28:35] Do we think Buster Posey has a little bit of help because he has three rings? Is Buster going to get in? Yes. Probably. He's an MVP. He has the greatest right now, the greatest catcher season of all time in 2012. Mm-hmm. Right. So. Okay. Yes. Again, this is why I preface this with it being a little first take ish and why I threw this out there. I'm not saying I'm not saying like end his career today and he's going to Cooperstown.

[00:29:05] I'm just saying if this is like so here's what I'm getting at. Right. This is why I asked the question. If this is going to be somewhat of a trend and not a one-off, like you can't just push the conversation by the wayside. I know it's been two months. He has to finish the season. He has to do it for multiple seasons in a row. So, but even if he doesn't put up the numbers he's put up this year all the time, even if he's not going to put up near a 200 WRC plus every year.

[00:29:35] I mean, if Cal Raleigh has a four-year stretch where his OPS is 880 or something like that, that's a Hall of Fame catcher. And that's not even factoring in what he does on defense. So, let me try and encompass what you're saying. Cal Raleigh essentially this season went from what was a very good baseball player to what then in your eyes as you watch him get better,

[00:30:04] transform into a type of player that could eventually with enough longevity make the Hall of Fame. That's what I'm getting at. Yes. Gotcha. That's a good way to put it. So, you're like, okay, Cal before Cal was going to be the best catcher in franchise history already. Bar was not very high. But he was playing very well, very productive, lots of home runs, great defense behind the play. He was playing a play. He was playing a play. But now this season, he takes the step to say, I have more than just that.

[00:30:31] I'm better than just being the best in franchise history. I have the talent and the ability that I've shown here through two months to be one of the best catchers of all time. If I keep this up and I do this because I show that I have the talent and I have the ability to do this. Right. Because look at his numbers by year, his first three full seasons, which is what got him the extension, which is what has made him a fan favorite, which is what's made him beloved in this city, which has made him already the best catcher in franchise history, like you said.

[00:31:01] The numbers through the first three seasons, if you just want to use OPS, 774 in 2022, 762 in 2023, 748 in 2024. It's a really good player. Like by WRC+, he's well above average each of those three years. He hits 30 bombs. He plays great defense.

[00:31:22] He would be, if that trend continued, one of the game's five best catchers, give or take, just about every season, which is a really good player. But you look at him now and again, 10-16 OPS, crushing the ball from both sides. I mean, like again, WRC+, that's near 200. He's second in MVP voting right now.

[00:31:50] I mean, he's second in the MVP running right now behind Judge, who's having a historic year. Yeah, that's what I'm getting at. Like the 740, 750 OPS type seasons are really good seasons, especially for a catcher. But this, this isn't great for a catcher. This is legend stuff from any player across the game. Just think of all the other stuff he has to take on because he's a catcher. That makes this that much more impressive.

[00:32:18] Cal's not going to get pissed at this because he needs to focus on playing every single day. And I know players don't focus really on awards that much until they've won them. But I'm going to get mad for Cal Raleigh that the American League, the way it is, the way that baseball has these two just inner circle, top tenth of a percent of all-time baseball players in Aaron Judge and Shohei Otani in each league, essentially blocking the MVP from anyone else winning it. Yeah, I know.

[00:32:48] Isn't that a little unfair? A little. If Aaron Judge wasn't Barry Bonds, Cal Raleigh would be the MVP favorite right now. And I still, I flat out believe that there is no more singular valuable player in all of Major League Baseball than Cal Raleigh. Because Aaron Judge playing right field is not as valuable as being a platinum glove defender behind the plate. There's no way you can argue that. But Aaron Judge is that much better of a hitter than everyone else in Major League Baseball. And that's why he'll win the MVP award if he doesn't get hurt.

[00:33:18] And I understand that. But that doesn't mean I'm happy about it. Because Cal Raleigh will put up an MVP quality season if he keeps this up and have nothing to show for it. If somebody were to try to make an argument for why Cal could be the MVP over Aaron Judge, and this is not me saying this. Again, Aaron Judge is having the best offensive season we've probably seen since Bonds right now. If you were to try to make the argument,

[00:33:42] I would say that your talking points would have to be that Aaron Judge plays right field with a short porch behind him. Cal Raleigh is squatting down behind the plate catching and dealing with, when healthy, one of the best rotations in baseball every day. Andy's switch hitting. Andy's doing it in one of the toughest parks in baseball to hit in. Like, there is some argument you can make. Now, you can make an argument.

[00:34:09] I don't think that's going to change the fact that Judge, unfortunately, at this point, will probably still unanimously win it. But, like, if you wanted to try to make the argument, that would be the argument. Again, plays the more taxing position. Far more. Plays in the pitcher's park. And, like, when it's at its worst, the worst pitcher's park in baseball. And the fact he switch hits. This is where the modern age and the statistics we love so much will come back to bite Cal Raleigh.

[00:34:38] Because let's say if Cal Raleigh, the only thing he beats Aaron Judge in all season is home runs. Then if this was, like, the 90s, he would have a legitimate chance. Well, yeah. But Judge's WRC+, which, as we all know, park neutral. Again, like, well, takes park factors into account. It is about 250. I need to remind you, to use a Mariners example of this, of the 1996 MVP race.

[00:35:06] And look at how, like, someone like Cal who will, I don't think outside of home runs have a single advantage across the board statistically to Aaron Judge offensively, which is really unfortunate. Even with his platinum glove defense, I still think Aaron Judge is going to clear Cal Raleigh by two to three wins, which is absolutely ridiculous. But remember 1996, Lyle? The Mariners had the two most valuable players in the American League that year by war. Ken Griffey Jr. had a 9.7 war.

[00:35:36] He finished fourth. Alex Rodriguez had a 9.4 war. Finished second. And the winner of the MVP award that year was Juan Gonzalez because he hit 47 home runs. Not even the most in the league, by the way. But he still won the award despite the fact he generated 3.8 baseball reference war. You probably can't say much about his defense, can you? No.

[00:36:01] That's the other thing that gets slept on about Judge, too, because he's so big and he plays a corner outfield spot. He's actually a very, very good defender. And it just doesn't get talked about enough. Because what gets talked about with Aaron Judge is his offense. Cal Raleigh right now is the second. Let me make sure I have this right. Second most valuable player in baseball. By wins above replacement, 3.8. Aaron Judge is already worth over five wins. Dude, I saw that today.

[00:36:30] I hadn't checked his war in a couple weeks. It's June 2nd. There's no. Unfortunately, there's nothing Cal Raleigh can do about that. I mean, Judge is on pace for over 15 wins. How? Find an answer for you. And Cal had an answer then. Yeah, I don't know. Look how far these two are beating some of the regular MVP candidates in baseball by. So Cal's at 3.8, right?

[00:36:58] Bobby Witt Jr., he has cleared by a win. He's, Shohei Otani's at 3.2 right now. Francisco Lindor's at 2.6. Freddie Freeman's having an unreal year at another corner position. It's only worth 2.6 war. Your guy, K-Tuck, is only at 2.5. Will Smith, another catcher, probably the second best catcher in baseball this year based on how he's hit, is worth 2.3. Like, it's not even close.

[00:37:25] And yet, Cal Raleigh is still a mile behind Aaron Judge. It's not fair. No, it's not. But that shouldn't take away from the fact that what he's doing this year is unprecedented for basically any catcher since the turn of the century and maybe any catcher ever when it's all said and done.

[00:37:47] If we're going to keep talking and comparing Judge and Cal Raleigh, I had a comp for actually for how this Mariners lineup has shook out with Cal Raleigh's production. Do you feel like this lineup's a little bit like the 2022 Yankees? Yep. I was just thinking that. One guy carries the entire load of the offense and you look at everybody else and you're like, well, there's a guy here who did okay and there's a guy here who had some hot streaks.

[00:38:13] But there's kind of one guy who is overarchingly miles better than the rest of his team. It matches up almost perfectly. So Matt Carpenter had an unreal Mickey Mouse 50-ish game stretch during that season where he was unreal. He was actually just about on a rate stat basis as good as Judge, but it didn't last all season. Because if you remember, he got hurt in the series he played with the Mariners. Didn't he foul ball off his foot? Right? Yeah. And that ended his season. Rizzo was good that year.

[00:38:43] They had a handful of guys who were solid. I think Labor was solid that year. And there was a couple other ones. But the rest of the lineup was objectively not very good. If you were to look at that in the Mariners' perspective, you'd be like, alright, Cal's going to be unbelievably great. Julio's going to be really good. And everyone else is probably going to be good to average to bad. Well, Julio's been really good overall. Offensively, he's been above average. Right.

[00:39:10] Rizzo that year was a 131 OPS+. I wouldn't be shocked if Julio ends the season at 131. That's not unreasonable for him. Sure. Yeah. It would be nice if they could pick up some of the slack behind Cal, though. Because this is what makes it hard. What happens this weekend if Cal doesn't hit those homers? I mean, they get swept. Yeah. And Cole Young walks into a clubhouse first weekend like, this is fantastic.

[00:39:37] And it's like, the Mariners put up five runs, I think, all weekend. Or no, sorry. They would have scored six runs without those Cal Raleigh homers. Right. Crazy. Man. I mean, we could talk about Cal forever. And it's not going to be the last time we talk about him either. We do have some other topics to get to. The only thing I would say as we wrap this up is, one, I hope the offense finds some production around him. Because that would, I mean, do wonders for this team. And if other guys can start to get going even just a little bit.

[00:40:08] Number two. Man, I hope they find some ways to get him off his feet from time to time. Which is so hard to do because he's the best player on the team. But you run the risk of running him into the ground if he does not get off days. Because at the end of the day, he is still a catcher. And that's where someone's going to come up to you and say, that is why you bring Harry Ford up. Right. Even if you don't agree with it, it is an active way to get Cal Raleigh off his feet.

[00:40:36] Because I don't think, if I will speak not hearing direct information from the Mariners, I don't think they have any interest in playing Mitch Garver on days that there's a righty on the mound. At all. Whether it be DH or it be behind the plate catching for Cal Raleigh. They need someone where they can essentially force Cal to DH and not catch. Yeah. And that would probably, the only player in the org that you could probably make the case for that would be Harry Ford.

[00:41:05] Okay, but even DHing, that's still not a real day off his feet either. It's not, but when he's the best player on your roster, you can't. Are you going to give him a day off? I mean, you could give him a, you could probably give him a day off. Well, I'll take that. But even if you give Cal a day off, you know what's going to happen? He's going to pitch it. And that's fine. But when you think about a full season of this, especially, or even just the longevity of a career,

[00:41:32] like if he doesn't get days off, look, Cal may just be built different and beats every narrative that's ever been out there about catchers. But history does show catchers need some days off their feet. I would like to see Cal Raleigh be really good for a long time. It's a good problem to have, but this is the problem when your catcher is your best hitter. Yeah. If you need him in the lineup, he needs days. I still feel like we may not see Harry Ford until August.

[00:41:58] The reason I say that is because if he's not traded at the deadline, then sure, at that point he may be called up. Right. But again, it just depends what the objective is. Is the objective give Cal days off or is the objective to maximize Harry Ford's trade value? Right. Right. I mean, if they're actually going to keep Harry and they could even get him to play the outfield once a week, then there's an actual way he could play because Harry could catch twice a week. Cal could DH one of those days. He could get a day off one of those days.

[00:42:27] And then you could have Harry play a day in left field. I know it didn't look great in AA, but if he develops a little bit with it over time, that's another day. Then maybe DH is a day. Then Harry Ford's playing a few times a week. His development isn't stunted and you get Cal off his feet. There's a way to make it work. It's just about what do the Mariners want? Right. And they will answer that question for us if Harry keeps raking down on the minors and they keep this show going. Right. All right. We got two other stories to talk about.

[00:42:56] So before we do that, let's take a quick pause. Let's talk to you about our friends over at Pogaccia's Pub 85. If you want to go watch Cal Raleigh hit a homer, which happens almost nightly at this point, if you plan a night out with your friends and head over there and watch the Mariners on one of their 20 TVs, you'll probably see Cal Raleigh hit a home run. So you should go plan an outing because it's a really fun spot to hang out. There's pool. There's darts. There's great food and great happy hour drinks, which stem from 2 to 6 p.m. on Monday through Friday. Again, those are the happy hours.

[00:43:25] And you can get drinks for $3 and $4 during that time. It's an awesome deal. It's a really fun spot. Go check it out with your friends. That's Pogaccia's Pub 85 over in Kirkland. What did we think of Bryce Miller's first start back from the aisle? Well, it's not. So the reason I give that answer, it's not about the final stat line. He went four innings, gave up three runs.

[00:43:54] He was on about a 70-ish pitch count. At least that's what it felt like because he didn't go beyond that. It's not really about that. And it's more about where that velo still sits coming off the IL and getting that cortisone shot. That's where I'm just a little bit nervous. Again, it's not the fact Bryce went four innings, gave up three runs. If he had done that, but his fastballs had been up in the mid to high 90s, I'd say, all right. Like, it was his first start back. He's working through some stuff.

[00:44:24] At least we saw the stuff play up. That fastball was still at 91 miles an hour in the fourth inning. And I think that's where I get a little nervous. It looked like pretty typical 2025 Bryce Miller. I thought that was the best way to put it. It didn't look like much changed at all. Dan and Bryce came out after the game and said they didn't really like where some of the off-speed pitches was. Or off-speed pitches were. That's correct grammar there.

[00:44:52] And that, they felt like, was part of a reason, not just the velocity of why Bryce wasn't great. But you and I, I think, are pretty focused on that fastball velocity. Because Bryce Miller's bread and butter will always be his fastball. And if he's throwing his fastball hard, that really helps all of his other pitches. On top of that, his splitter has not been a really good pitch for him this year. And they said he threw a couple splitters and didn't really like what they were doing with them. So he had to go to some of his other pitches.

[00:45:21] Within the outing as well. Note that there was the 10-minute delay with the fire alarm on that Saturday. Right before that fourth inning. Whereas velocity really did dip down a little bit. And Bryce talked about, hey, my arm usually kind of tightens up on a cool night. If I'm not moving around. I'm not throwing. I'm not active and in the game. So, you know, I can believe that. Right? You just took two weeks off. You come back. You throw really good in the first inning. He looked great in the first inning. Like, velocity was up.

[00:45:51] Stuff was moving. Looked great. But the first inning really hasn't been a problem for Bryce Miller. It's been more the second time through the lineup when his velocity starts dipping a little bit. And he comes out for the fourth. And then he has to sit there and wait as they figure out the mechanical fire in the elevators. Which required you and I to walk down the stairs wherever we were going. Because the elevators weren't working. So, he's going to have a couple more starts. Like, you and I know. He's going to have a couple more starts.

[00:46:19] And whether or not it's really his arm being tight. His next start will be in Anaheim. So, it'll be nice and warm down there. I would imagine he's going to have no problem staying loose pitching against the Angels. One of his best starts of the season came against the Angels already. So, I'm sure he'd feel pretty decently comfortable. But eventually, he's going to have to get to a point where he's at 90 to 100 pitches. And his velocity is not down to 92, 91 miles an hour. Like, I think that's where we have to see it.

[00:46:49] And that's from what I'm looking at. Not what the Mariners are looking at. What I want to see from Bryce Miller to be effective is that. And I didn't say the first start back. Didn't offer up much of that. Again, we talked about let's look at a three-start sample for Bryce Miller once he gets off the IL. And then let's reassess. I don't want to jump to too many conclusions after one outing. Which is why I'm not going to do that here. And that's why when you asked me what did you think of his start.

[00:47:14] Of the one start, yeah, it was a little concerning that fastball Velo is still not back up. But, if the next two starts are different and he works into the fifth, sixth inning and his fastball is up to 94, 95 in that time. Then great. We can come back here and say, different storyline. Maybe it really was the cold weather. Maybe it really was the delay that caused his arm to get a little bit tight. Maybe it was some extenuating circumstances against the Twins. That's why I'm not going to draw any conclusions right now.

[00:47:44] But, again, we keep talking about this three-start sample. If he has another couple starts where it looks more like this, then I think we're going to have to have some real conversations. I hope we don't have to. Because I would love for Bryce Miller to just be peak Bryce Miller, get healthy, get right, and get back to who he was last year. Because when Bryce Miller's at his best, not only is he a great watch and a really fun pitcher to put your eyes on, but he's vital to this team. And that's why I hope when it's all said and done he just figures it out.

[00:48:15] So we'll see. I'd say his next start will be a nice, good indicator. And then we'll see where Logan Gilbert is at as well after Bryce Miller's third start back. And then the Mariners can assess what to do. You haven't changed your mind on a six-man rotation yet, have you? So I heard on Monday at least, I know you guys will be listening to this on Wednesday on Brock and Salk, Shannon sounded like she was a fan of the six-man rotation idea.

[00:48:39] She was, and she made a good point, which I don't know what you thought about this because you've been very against it. But she did make the point of how often are they even using that eighth guy in the bullpen? I mean, it was Blas Castano for a while, barely pitched. Whoever the eighth guy has been at other points in the year, barely pitched. Casey Lawrence, Jonathan Diaz, whoever. I don't know. They don't use that last guy very much. And if you get, you know, so let me outline it like this, right? Let's take all five pitchers here into account.

[00:49:09] You have Luis Castillo, who's got a clause in his contract that revolves around a potential elbow injury. So clearly, like, there was some concern levels from one side or the other because that wouldn't be in his contract if it wasn't. That's one. You have George Kirby, who just missed essentially the first two months of the year with a shoulder issue. You've got Logan Gilbert, who's going to be coming off the IL at some point after dealing with a flexor strain and forearm tightness.

[00:49:37] You have Bryce Miller, who was just on the IL with some elbow inflammation and had to get a cortisone shot and is still working his way back and trying to get back to who he was last year. And then you have Brian Wu, who's now apparently dealing with a blister and he's dealt with it basically all year. And he said that, look, like in a blister, it sounds small, but those things can be hard to recover from. And when you grip a ball the way a pitcher grips a ball, it can really bother you, especially because you never get more than a few days to try to let it rest and let it get right.

[00:50:06] Right. So all five guys to some level or another are dealing with something and you don't use that last spot in your pen that much. I don't know if I'm fully all in on the six man rotation yet, but the more I think about it, the more I have my mind wandering that way a little bit. I thought Justin Hollander was pretty blunt when he was asked about it on Tuesday. Oh, he was blunt. He said no. Okay.

[00:50:36] He said no and he gave a reason. He didn't just say no. He said, you know, the way he explained it, and I think this makes sense, is that starting pitchers especially, even if they're dealing with things, are such creatures of habit that once you change the clock on them, it screws everything up. Well, so now we're talking about two different things. There is what the Mariners would do and will do and what I would do. This is like that. And that's kind of what Shannon said on Brock and Salk here on Monday, too. She said, I would go with the six man rotation.

[00:51:05] Now, the Mariners don't seem to have any indication that they want to do that. But she said she'd be interested. Right. And but I agree with what Hollander said as, you know, sort of my opinion. Right. I would rather the pitchers be pitching normally because I think that will get them back to better health more than pitching in a six. Six man rotation. These guys have all pitched in five man rotations essentially the entire time they've been up at the big league level. Do you think now all of a sudden they want an extra day or two to rest?

[00:51:35] I don't think so. I think they would rather just keep their normal routine. Like, what if you have two extra off days? And what do you do? What do you mean? Like, literally, what do you do? If Bryce Miller gets two extra off days, he has his pen right in the middle of his start. What does he do for those other two days? Like, he's used to starting one of those days. Yeah. And this could be why they might not do it. I'm just saying.

[00:52:01] Bryce then would come out after and say, yeah, man, these extra days are like they're screwing with me a little bit because I'm so used to throwing on this schedule that when I'm not doing that, it's you know, it's it's messing with me. And I would rather just be on my normal schedule. That's how I feel like I'm going to get back to normal. And ultimately, this just may be nothing more than a conversation because the Mariners may not change anything.

[00:52:24] I'm just saying for you to keep in mind, for everybody listening to keep in mind, all five Mariners starters are dealing with something. So they may not they might not always speak out and say, yes, we need the extra day in the six man rotation. But it's just something to think about. I also don't think this is going to help the bullpen out at all in the bullpen as injured as the rotation is Lyle. This is going to be a nice transition into the subject.

[00:52:52] The bullpen needs all the help it can get. Well, yeah. Yes, it does. Yeah, this bullpen's got me real worried. I can't even I can't even sugarcoat it. This bullpen and we saw it on display this weekend. And, you know, it's got its issues right now. I mean, we highlighted we sorry. Go ahead. No, I was just going to wrap up and say it's got its issues through the first two months.

[00:53:17] We've highlighted a couple different times that the biggest issue with this bullpen is not being able to strike guys out. And how did those two extra inning debacles unfold? Because you had to sort of pitch to contact guys. On the mound. Pitching to contact. Contact. Runners on base. Run score. And then you sit here two months into the season. We talk about how great Cal Raleigh is. And then we look at the Mariners bullpen right now.

[00:53:48] They're 15th in ERA. They're 21st in FIP. They're usually great in FIP. They usually get a lot of strikeouts. A lot of ground balls. Don't allow home runs. Don't walk guys. But the FIP is telling us the opposite story. They're 26th in strikeout rate. They're 22nd in WIP. That's not a winning formula. The Mariners weakness last year. Besides the offense. Was the bullpen. And the bullpen now has regressed even further. And if you just pull up a stats page. And look at who has thrown. And how productive they've been. This year for the Mariners.

[00:54:18] This stat I think highlights it the most. The guy who's thrown the most innings in this Mariners bullpen this year. Is Edward Bizzardo. He's thrown a little over 28 innings so far. He's been worth zero wins above replacement. He has accumulated zero value above a replacement level player for this Mariners bullpen. Replacement level players. Cannot be. The guys most used in the bullpen. It cannot be the case.

[00:54:46] If you throw the guys that are not the best. The most. Then you're going to get those results. The results will match right up with that. And that's what we've seen. And Bizzardo has not been able to carry over some of the success he had last year. He had a high strikeout rate. Walk rate wasn't out of control. Got a little unlucky with some of his runs allowed. This year. It's like a 20% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate. That doesn't cut it for a reliever. And by the way. They're top 10 in the league in home runs allowed.

[00:55:15] And not in the good way. They've allowed the 9th most home runs as a bullpen in baseball. So. Let me. Let me speak this into existence as. Oh my. I can't even talk. Let me say this as loud and clear as humanly possible. This team needs multiple leverage bullpen arms at the deadline. Need it. Need it. Need it. Need it. Need it. You want a hot take? I would rather see them get two leverage bullpen arms than a single bat. I would.

[00:55:45] I would. I would give up them getting a single hitter at this deadline. If they are going to go get multiple bullpen arms. Leverage bullpen arms. Because that's my level of concern with this bullpen right now. When you get past Andres Munoz. Matt Brash. And Gabe Spire. You get past those three. And my concern level is pretty high. Let me ask you this. You get past those three. Is there one guy of the remaining five. That you feel comfortable watching right now?

[00:56:16] In what situation? High leverage? A close game. Hmm. I think Carlos Vargas is on top of that list. But it's not. Not very. Not very high up on the totem pole. So, the guy who just chucked the ball into right field this weekend and kept the game going. That one. You'd be correct. If that's your number four guy in your bullpen, you need more leverage arms.

[00:56:44] And look, I know that was one play for Carlos Vargas. And he has done some things very well this year. I don't want to totally take away from that. Because I understand he's got a sub three ERA. The guy's whip is also one five. So, if that's your fourth arm, I'm sorry, but that's an issue. And Carlos Vargas is two seven nine ERA. The expected stats say it probably shouldn't be that low.

[00:57:11] I'm going to circle back to the strikeout rate and how the issue of that can pop up. The Mariners right now have three regulars who have an above average strikeout rate. And they would be who you expect. Gabe Spire, Andres Munoz, and Matt Brash. That's it. The problem, and this kind of ties back into some of the decision making with this bullpen and how they're deployed. If those guys are only pitching with the lead, ever, when are you going to have someone who you feel confident to come in and shut down a game?

[00:57:40] Like, you can use the two tenth innings for examples. When Legamina and Snyder gave up a bucket full of runs because they weren't able to miss bats in extra innings. And especially when you have those guys on second base, you need to be able to miss bats to get out of situations like that. And the Mariners don't have guys consistently like that. So those are only three guys, Lyle, who have an above average strikeout rate that are regulars. You know what I think of as a really good Mariners bullpen? 2023.

[00:58:06] That was a fun, really good group of guys out in that bullpen. Justin Topa, Gabe Spire, Matt Brash, Andres Munoz. Sauce. Yes. Taylor Sauceda was really good that year. They had plenty of good guys who had really productive years in that Mariners bullpen. I set some filters for innings minimums. But even still, that group had eight guys with an above average strikeout rate.

[00:58:34] And that doesn't include Topa or Sauce, who were two of the better relievers in that pen that year. But when you have eight guys you can trust to go in there and get a strikeout, and then you have two more ground ball guys on top of it, that is a better strategy as opposed to having three elite strikeout guys that you only throw when you have a lead, and then some more ground ball guys, or even not ground ball guys. Not all these guys are like this. And it just makes it really tricky.

[00:59:01] And when you're pitching in these small samples and these high-levered spots, you need to be able to miss bats. And if you can't miss bats, it's a disaster. And the Mariners have found that out the last year and two months. That, yeah, their offense has been a problem, but their bullpen has been just as big of a problem. And it's been, I think, in my opinion, because they have tried sort of the same strategy that got them the 21, 22, and 23 bullpens, which were a massive success.

[00:59:28] But their resulting bullpens after that, after those guys have kind of left and gone away, have not been as successful. So maybe it does require a little bit of a reevaluation of how you're going to go about acquiring guys to put in your bullpen. Well, it starts with making trades at the deadline. That would be a great start. I just don't want them to be spooked by what happened to Stanek last year. They signed Stanek for real money, expect him to be a big part of the bullpen,

[00:59:56] doesn't fit their philosophy at all, and then they trade him at the deadline. I don't want that. Well, yeah, my response to that is too bad. Try again. As it should be. Try again. That's what I'd say. Because guess what? While you've got three absolute dogs in that bullpen right now, you are going to run them into the ground if you do not get some more leverage guys to help out. Because these guys should not have to throw in every game where they've got a close lead.

[01:00:24] By the way, this weekend they didn't, and they blew the game in the ninth inning because they did not have those guys available. So when those guys are unavailable, you need others to step up. And right now, it does not exist in this bullpen. So they're going to have to go out at the deadline and find these guys. Because again, all... Well, Matt Brash is fairly new back off the IL. But Spire and Munoz have already thrown a lot. And we saw last year when Munoz got worked really hard,

[01:00:53] he looked a little different at the end of the year than he did at the start of the year. I do not want to see these guys get run into the ground. And as a result of that, you're going to have to go find more leverage arms. Who are they going to go find? I've got three names down. And you can look at more. But the three I've got down, Pete Fairbanks of the Rays, Kyle Finnegan of the Nationals. I've talked about him a lot. And sneaky one, Dennis Santana of the Pittsburgh Pirates,

[01:01:21] who's had an awesome year so far. There are other guys you could circle. The three I'm highlighting, those three right there. Fairbanks, Finnegan, Santana. The latter two, more realistic because of how those teams play. And those teams aren't really good, right? Unless they play the Mariners, of course. Nationals. This is who I'm referring to. The Pirates stink. Rays right now are about 500. Like, they're right. They're floating.

[01:01:51] But the Rays always do cycle guys out because Fairbanks is a free agent after this season. And obviously, they're not planning on re-signing him. So they might want to just get some value for him. Here's another problem with how the Mariners approach acquiring relievers. Like, they love control, right? As any team should. They love having multiple years of cheap control of baseball players. But when you start trying to go acquire, like, really good ones that have multiple years in control, well, that's how you end up giving up, you know, Jared Kelnick for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano.

[01:02:21] And I'm going to be frank. As great as Edwin Diaz sounds right now, I don't know if I want to give up a Jared Kelnick prospect for a reliever. Doesn't sound like a smart strategy for doing that. Well, right. And to use that as an example, we floated out pre-recording and the two of us just kind of talking back and forth offline over the past week about the idea of Felix Batista because the Orioles are struggling so badly. Felix Batista's got two and a half years of club control.

[01:02:48] And I know he's not off to the start this year that he's, in terms of the guy that he's been in years past. But to trade for Felix Batista in two and a half years of a guy like that with that upside, you know, you'd essentially be talking about giving up Colt Emerson or Johnny Farmello for a reliever. That's the equivalent of giving up a Kelnick. I don't love that idea. Here's some other ideas for you. The Diamondbacks, by the way, not having a great year. Side note, trade back for Gino.

[01:03:19] I think Jerry DePoto would rather resign from his job than admit he was wrong and trade back for Gino. Other options? Tell me I'm wrong. Okay, well, Jerry DePoto wants to make good on something, Lyle. Here's another idea. Ready? Ready? Kendall Graveman. Could you imagine a trade deadline where they bring back Gino and Kendall Graveman? They're just running it back.

[01:03:49] Dude, that would, like, I will not exit Twitter for 72 hours if they get Gino and Kendall Graveman back. Well, Kendall Graveman's pitching on the Diamondbacks this year, and the Diamondbacks are not very good. So, I really wanted Kevin Ginkle to have a better year. He has been just terrible. His stuff is really good, but his ERA is, I think, 12. That would be a tough sell.

[01:04:18] Shelby Miller has had a good year for the Diamondbacks, Lyle. Emilio Pagan, if we're getting the group back together for the Reds, he's a rental. Adrian Hauser for the White Sox has had a good season. Greg Weissert with the Red Sox has a higher strikeout rate than a lot of the guys in the Mariners' bullpen do right now. Dylan Lee has a lot of control, I think, for the Braves, but he's, I think, 30 years old. And then two other options that I think are a little bit more higher profile.

[01:04:47] David Bednar with the Pirates, and Ryan Helsley with the Cardinals. Well, Helsley's going to be tough because the Cardinals are winning a ton right now. I don't know if they're going to sell. And then Bednar, Bednar hasn't been good in a while. I mean, last year he was abysmal, and this year he hasn't been that much better. This is where you bank on the fact that your pitching strategy blows Pittsburgh's out of the water. Lyle, this is the same organization that made Garrett Cole throw a sinker.

[01:05:19] Well, that's true. Garrett Cole was not exactly on his way to a Hall of Fame career in Pittsburgh. No. I just, I think I would rather look at some guys other than David Bednar. But you listed out a lot of guys, so that's fine. Kendall Graveman sounds great to me. The problem here is with the expanded playoffs, there's so many teams that are going to be so reluctant to sell off any pieces. This is what's going to make trading for bullpen arms hard.

[01:05:47] For example, like a team like the Blue Jays, right, who have been a fringe team all year, and now they're above .500, but they're still just hovering around. There's a lot of really good guys in that bullpen for the Blue Jays that I like a lot. The issue is the team's above .500, and those guys all have way too much club control. Do we all remember watching Brendan Little over the course of two series with the Mariners and Blue Jays? That guy is disgusting. The problem is he's not a free agent for a decade. I mean, I'm exaggerating, but he's not a free agent for a long time.

[01:06:18] Fluerty, not a free agent for a long time. The guys that are really good in that bullpen are not going anywhere. So this is what makes it hard. Fine, fine, fine, fine. The Mariners are going to trade back for Jimmy Garcia. Dude, let's just bring everybody back. I mean, while we're at it, Teej, Abe Toro's actually hitting a little bit in Boston right now. Uh, no. Oh, he's hitting. No. Would you like to hear his numbers? No, I don't, actually. Well, I think you do.

[01:06:46] Abe Toro has a .132 OPS plus with the Red Sox right now. I'm going to ignore that and go on to another reliever. Is Paul Seewald healthy? No, he's not. He's on the IL. He's hitting .310, Abe Toro. Oh, great. I'm glad. I hope he gets sent down when they call up Roman Anthony. Well, instead of sent back down, what about traded to the M's? No.

[01:07:15] Thank goodness for Cole Young. Nowhere for Abe to play. Mitch Garver DHs, Harry Ford DHs, Cole Young plays second, Abe Toro's banished into the ether. I thought he could come off the bench. No. Oh, he's hitting well. He's hitting well. No. No. No. Oh, I think they got to explore it. Also, I forgot Paul Seewald's not on the Diamondbacks anymore. No, he's not the Guardian. And the Guardians are playing pretty well, so he's probably not available.

[01:07:45] Okay. The issue here is that we're highlighting there is not a lot of options. We highlighted some and we hope the Mariners bounce and like, sorry, pounce is the right word. We hope they pounce on some of those guys and actually, you know, get aggressive and trade for some bullpen arms because they need them. But we'll see if they do. The Mariners problem is not unique. There's a lot of teams in baseball that need relievers, unfortunately. Yeah. So there's going to be probably 15 teams that want to leverage reliever.

[01:08:14] And there's going to be about six teams that have one to sell. Right. Which is where it's good you have all your prospects, but then it's like, all right, how many prospects do you want to give up for a reliever? Different when you're going for bats, but a reliever? It's like when Lyle and I sat on this very podcast in the very early stages of it and said, Eric Swanson for Teoscar Hernandez is a massive success. Anytime you trade a reliever for a position player, it is a win from a value perspective.

[01:08:42] That now the Mariners are the other side of the coin. This deadline where they're going to have to judge how much they're willing to give up for these arms because they need them. They want to win anything. They need better bullpen arms. They roll this bullpen out and somehow make it October. I'm not not making it. This bullpen just feels like if something does not change with the guys four through eight in this pen, we may have to see a lot of things get reshuffled.

[01:09:09] If they want this bullpen to be a playoff caliber bullpen, when you get past Mooney, Brash, and Spire, we may have to see a big turning over of a new leaf or reshuffling. And that could be something like, I mean, I'll throw this out there. You keep the big three. Vargas stays. And it feels like the Mariners do like him, so he may stick around. But then after him, you may need to trade for two leverage relievers and get multiple guys at the deadline,

[01:09:39] which would be six guys in your pen. And if you want to keep reshuffling, then you look down to the minor leagues at a couple guys that are in double A. I still think we're going to see Brandon Garcia at some point this year. Now he's on a little bit of the Matt Brash trajectory right now where, look, it's actually much harder than people want to give anybody credit for to transition from a starter to a reliever. And Brandon showed a little bit of that because it's, again, like it's a big adjustment.

[01:10:05] He's had some outings where he's looked really good and he's had some outings where he's clearly still working through some stuff. The reason I still look at Brandon Garcia is because he's punching out 10 per nine. His expected numbers say he's gotten a little bit unlucky. And I think once he has a good stretch here, I think once he has a stretch of five or six good weeks down in double A out of that bullpen, you'll see the Mariners call him up. So between him and a guy like Michael Hobbs,

[01:10:32] this may be what you're looking at in terms of reshuffling a potential bullpen. Do you think Hobbs would get a chance over Troy Taylor? I feel like the Mariners want Troy Taylor to be part of his bullpen. Like they want him to pitch a little bit in Tacoma, find himself, and then come back up. Yeah, it's possible. I mean, obviously we know the Mariners like Troy Taylor, so that could be part of it. But, you know, what if Troy proves he needs some more development time? And that's fair.

[01:10:59] And they, at some point, like Michael Hobbs, for example, for people who are unfamiliar, he's dealing in double A right now. He's got a 160 RA in 17 appearances, 22 innings. He's got a high strikeout rate, 30%. He is walking 12% of his batters. But he's been really good. The problem with Michael Hobbs is that on July 10th, he's going to turn 26. Once you reach 26, it's let's see what you got or we're going to move on. Well, I'm just saying Paul Seewald figured it out at 31.

[01:11:28] Topa figured it out at 31. Guys figured out late. But Paul Seewald was in the big leagues at that point. Michael Hobbs is in double A. Okay. Well, I'm just saying that may be a guy they looked for because he's striking guys out. He's got a low ERA. Again, like you're going to need to shuffle. I'm not saying they're going to cut. I mean, they would put him in the bullpen to see what they got in Michael Hobbs. Because it's like, all right, we see you can dominate double A at 26 years old. Either you prove it in the big leagues or you don't.

[01:11:55] I would also note, it doesn't mean everything, but right now in 14 appearances in Tacoma this year, Troy Taylor's got an ERA near six and his whips about one six. How many of that is specific outings or is it consistent? I mean, he is punching guys out down there. Like he's punching out about 12 and a half per nine, which is a good sign. But, you know, it hasn't been smooth sailing down in Tacoma so far either. It's going to be really interesting, man.

[01:12:24] I like, again, if something does not change very soon with the guys they currently have in this bullpen, I think they're going to have to reshuffle a lot of things. And I think, again, I'll say it again. I would at this point rather see them trade for two leverage bullpen arms than a single bat. Like I would address that first at this point before anything else. And I know that sounds crazy because you can argue they need a first baseman. You can argue they need a third baseman. You can argue they need a right fielder.

[01:12:51] I would get the bullpen arms first because they really, really need bullpen arms. To make people feel better about Troy Taylor, he gave up six of the eight earned runs he's given up in Tacoma in the first week of the season. All right. So that's a good sign that he's starting to figure some things out now as he's been down there for a little bit. But yeah, hopefully at some point Troy could factor into this because that'd be great. Maybe they value him over Michael Hobbs and that's certainly possible. Well, they are just going to think his choice 23. Right.

[01:13:21] And he pitched in some real leverage last year in the big leagues, but they're going to have to find a way to get creative with this again. More than anybody down in the minors. I'd keep watching Brandon Garcia. I know it's been a little up and down for him through the first two months. Again, I don't think that's totally unexpected when you change roles into a relievers role. Let's see what he looks like in the summer. Once he's got his feet under him a little bit and he's starting to now again, he's had two months. Once is a reliever. Troy Taylor got up in August last year.

[01:13:51] I wouldn't be shocked if around that time, that's when we could see BG and we could see Brandon. Regardless, they're going to need to change something in this moment. Right. And I think first and foremost, it has to be trading for established, proven higher end arms. Like some of the guys we highlighted. They're going to have to do it. Loaded episode, huh? Lots to talk about. Shout out to Cal, man. Dude's a content factory. I know. Tell me about it. Man. Also, shout out to Justin Topa too. We didn't talk about it on Monday.

[01:14:21] Oh my God. While we, great scene Topa. I was going to say, while we mentioned Topa here about this 23 bullpen and here on this show, we hadn't seen him since in person since the end of 2023. He was on the podcast with us two weeks before he got traded last year and he was hurt last year. So when Minnesota made the trip, he wasn't here. And he was always, always like one of our favorite dudes, like one of the best dudes you'll find in baseball.

[01:14:48] And when we got to see him this weekend, I was pretty fired up to see him because he's, he's awesome, man. Great conversation. And shout out to Ty France too. It was great getting to see him too. He got a lot of love around the ballpark. Yeah, he did. He did. And it was great to catch up with Ty a little bit, but I think we always knew Topa a little bit better. So to actually get to stand and like catch up with them for a good while there was really fun. So yeah, it was cool. All right. That just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast. You guys know the drill.

[01:15:15] If you want to listen to the full form podcast or check out any of our other stuff, it's all over at one spot. MarineLayerPod.com. Go get your merch, you guys. Again, summer's right around the corner. I mean, it's basically here already. Say you're at a hoodie season and you just want a t-shirt. We've got MarineLayerPod t-shirts. They're sick. I have one. TJ's got some on the way. Like, go get yours. Wear them around the park. We'd love to see it this summer. We'd love to get photos of you guys and all of us together in the merch this summer. So go get your merch. It's all over at the website.

[01:15:45] Check out our Patreon. We'd love to have you join. Check out our live show schedule. That's all over there. Episodes are all over at our website. Audio, video, whatever you prefer. Whatever type of platform you prefer to listen to these episodes, you can get it all over there. MarineLayerPod.com. It's got everything you need. And you can find us all across social media. Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, YouTube shorts, at MarineLayerPod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.

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