Episode 251: What Is The Identity Of The Mariners? + Mailbag

[00:00:00] Tired of the price of everything going up these days? Groceries, rent, you name it, it's all going up. But not at Metro. They've got your back. Metro has lowered their prices and are giving you a five-year price guarantee on talk, text, and data. One line, now 20% lower. Family plans, also lowered. Oh, and you also get a free 5G phone, all with no ID required and no activation fees.

[00:00:24] Stop by your neighborhood Metro store, visit MetroByTMobile.com or call to find out about their amazing offers. Bring your number not available if currently at T-Mobile or with Metro in the past 180 days. Guarantee covers monthly price of on network talk, text, and 5G data for customers activating on an eligible plan. Exclusions apply. Details at MetroByTMobile.com. Welcome to episode number 251 of the Marine Layer Podcast. It's a mailbag episode. We'll open it up and answer your guys' best listener questions.

[00:00:51] We also have plenty to react to as the Mariners get swept by the Baltimore Orioles during the week.

[00:01:31] We'll see you next time.

[00:02:03] June 5th. I'm going to lead this off with a question, Lyle. Do you believe in jinxes? Sure. Tell me why. Tell me why. Tell me why I should believe in jinxes. I don't believe in jinxes personally, but let me give you a reason why some people might think that. Let's rewind the clock a little bit. The date is May 7th, 2025.

[00:02:29] There's probably an intern somewhere at the Major League Baseball headquarters in New York City, and they're sitting there and they're thinking, Man, I need some content today. Who's doing well? Let's see. Oh, the Mariners are doing well. Great. Let's make a graphic about them. So they do a little research on their little graphic, and they're like, Oh, so this is the best start the Mariners have had since 2003 on May 7th. So they say, Lyle, I'm going to put it on a graphic.

[00:02:59] So they slap it on a graphic, spam the social channels, and wait, wait, Mariners best start since 2003. Alert everybody. Alert everybody. The Mariners are 10 and 15 since that tweet went up. That is the best that we're going to tell all day. It's actually, it's actually the media's fault. Let's play a whole manager's role here. Owner's role in baseball say, why is our team struggling? Why are we not living up to expectations?

[00:03:28] Why are people not showing up? Well, it can't be us. It can't be our team. It can't be our players. Let's blame the media. So that's what I'm going to sit here and do. I'm going to blame the media for the Mariners skid here in May. What did we post on May 7th? Let's see. I'm going to go find it. Did we jinx the Mariners? Are we responsible for the Seattle Mariners collapsing and getting swept at home by the Baltimore Orioles? Let's see. What date am I at? I'm at May 8th. Let's see. Still on May 8th. Here we go. May 9th.

[00:03:59] Or no, May 7th. Sorry. Oh, May 7th. Oh, I know what did it, Lyle. Uh-oh. I found it. Well, I need you to speak. So tell us. Lyle, I think I did it. We threw out the first pitch on May 7th. Oh, no. So sources tell me that as soon as that ball left my hand, the Mariners season went down with it.

[00:04:27] Your incompetent throw from the bottom of the mound is what jinxed the Mariners season. Had you thrown a strike, they'd still be winning. I think so. That's disappointing. To all Mariner fans out there, if you're looking for someone to blame, blame me. I jinxed it. Nice job, Teej. Real nice fucking job, buddy. I thought your first pitch would offset that a little bit.

[00:04:56] But imagine if we'd each thrown two darts. Imagine. That's a fantasy land. And it's like saying, Lyle, what if the Mariners made the World Series? They might have if you had thrown a good first pitch. I guess we'll never know now, wouldn't we? Oh, that's funny. This is the story of the day. Blame the media. Blame the media. Yeah. Please blame the media for the Mariners getting swept at home by the Baltimore Orioles. Here's an actually more realistic stat, Lyle.

[00:05:24] The Orioles all season had had one of the three worst pitching staffs in baseball. You and I were so confident on Monday. We were so confident. I sat here in this chair and I said, you know, I'm going to predict on Tuesday Cal Raleigh hits a home run. No problem. He's taking Sagano deep on Tuesday. He did not. But I expected, you know, the Mariners would put up some runs because the Orioles pitching staff this season has been horrendous.

[00:05:51] The Orioles had only scored or only allowed six or less runs, their pitching staff that is, in a series one time all season. The only team they did that to was the Chicago White Sox the series before. Let that sink in.

[00:06:08] The only groups that have been unable to score more than six runs against the Baltimore Orioles all season in an entire series are the Seattle Mariners and the Chicago White Sox, who set a major league record for losses last season. It's pretty elite company, isn't it? Real elite company against one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball. It's not great. What percentage of runs did Cal drive in this weekend? It had to have been over 50.

[00:06:39] Well, he had the two-run homer and the RBI single here on Thursday. So that was all three runs. And the Mariners scored. So at least half. Yeah. Yeah. I don't think he drove in any others the other days, did he? This is great podcasting. I don't think he did. Regardless, it is over half. It is half, period. Yeah. Oh, I'm sorry. It is half, period. I'm sorry.

[00:07:06] He did drive one in on Tuesday, right? Oh, no. Sorry. I'm looking. Yeah. No, sorry. He did. He did. So he drove in over half the runs. So he drove in over half the runs in this three-game series against the Orioles in which they only scored six. Nice. Does that, like, that feels right based on what we've seen from this team, right? Like, Cal Raleigh has been unbelievable. And everyone else has gone somewhere else.

[00:07:36] Well, considering they can't win a game when Cal Raleigh doesn't hit a home run. Yeah, everything you said just checks out. You think we're kidding? No, we're not. Mike Varello of the Seattle Times tweeted this out here on Thursday. This is before the game started, or it was in the middle of the game. But now the stat's been updated. Listen to this.

[00:07:58] The last Mariner win without a Cal Raleigh dinger, that was a 5-1 win over the White Sox on May the 19th, 15 games ago. How is that possible? You want to talk about a one-man wrecking crew? That is the definition of a one-man wrecking crew, with nobody else picking up the slack behind him. I think we're unintentionally making Cal Raleigh's MVP case even better. We're not even directly advocating for him.

[00:08:28] We're more just ripping on the rest of the team. And yet it turns out to be a positive for Cal Raleigh. Here's, I think, the ultimate whammy in all of this. I tweeted this out earlier. Since May 1st, Cal Raleigh has been the most valuable position player in all of baseball by war. Since that same point, the Mariners have a losing record, first of all, 14-17.

[00:08:56] They are also, as an offense, 21st in runs scored, 20th in stolen bases, 26th in strikeout rate, 21st in walk rate. A bottom third offense when you have a player who is the best in all of baseball. That is picture-perfect Mike Trout on the Angels. Is it not? Yes. Like, 2018 Angels, MVP Mike Trout, 10-win season, and the rest of the team is doing that.

[00:09:27] Couldn't have drawn it up any better. At least with 2022 Aaron Judge, they still made the playoffs. They made the ALCS. He had enough around him to get to the semifinals, essentially. Trout, that's the best comparison you can give right now. And I don't like, like, emotional knee-jerk. Like, you know the—we know the dynamic of this podcast, right? I'm Mellow. Lyle likes to rev up a little bit. And Lyle, I think, might rev up here eventually. We'll see if we can unlock him. It's like the Hulk coming out on the podcast.

[00:09:57] We'll see if we can keep him down, though. But May 1st to June 5th is a long time. That's over half the season you've played so far. And in that span of time, the Mariners have not been a good baseball team. What I failed to mention in that last section of talking that I just did was that the Mariners also have a bottom-third pitching staff. Overall, not brush bullpen. Overall, in that span. For over half the season, the Mariners have had a bottom-third offense and a bottom-third pitching staff. That right there is a bad team.

[00:10:28] Yeah, like, you can't pinpoint to anything they're doing well right now outside of Cal Raleigh. You just tweeted it here on Thursday afternoon. Cal Raleigh has been the single most valuable player in baseball since the start of May by F-War. And the rest of the Mariners across the board, offensively and on the mound, rank in the bottom half to the bottom-third of baseball in a variety of categories. It's not like it's one or two. It's everything. It is the definition of a one-man wrecking crew right now.

[00:10:56] It's Cal Raleigh with nobody picking up the slack. JP and Julio, I think, are slightly excused from the conversation. But everyone else, no. JP and Julio have each been about 30% better than league average over the course of that time. Maybe not their best, best, best selves. But good enough. But the rest of the team, like the all-encompassing nature of the lineup 1-9, has not been able to produce enough runs. They've not been able to prevent enough runs. They've not been able to generate strikeouts.

[00:11:25] The offense, which is supposed to be known for its walking, for the last month and change has not been able to walk. Why? That's what the lineup was built on. Well, when Jorge Polanco has about as bad a month as you can have for any player in baseball, when you're not getting on base, you're not going to walk that much. So his walk rate goes down. And other guys' walk rates went down. Dylan Moore, for example, who walks a ton when he's at his best. But he didn't have a very good month of May. It was about league average.

[00:11:55] So he's not going to walk as much either. All this leads me to one big question I have. It was a little more clear in April, but since May started, it has not been clear at all. What is the Mariners' identity? Loading. They're searching for one. Because they do not currently have one. At least in April, you could say, yeah, our identity so far this season is that we hit home runs, we walk among the best of all offenses in baseball, and we steal bases.

[00:12:25] Yeah, our pitching staff's a little injured, our bullpen's a little undermanned because Matt Brash is not here yet. But we have some clear strengths. They don't have any strengths since then. Not at all. They're not good at anything. The identity, unfortunately, is Cal Raleigh, and one player is not your identity. And you can't win anything with one player being your identity. You have to have something else. We thought going into the season, the identity would be rotation. Like rotation, Julio, and Cal. That could be good enough.

[00:12:54] You would think that would be good enough. But they haven't even got all that. Because the rotation is a big contributor to the fact they're bottom third in ERA. If you want to stick on the rotation for a second, how important is Bryce Miller's start here on Friday in Anaheim? Because I got to be honest, I'm not the Mariners. I'm obviously not a decision maker.

[00:13:19] But we just watched Emerson Hancock turn in another really good start here against the Orioles. And he's been really good ever since he came back from that one blip of an outing to start the year after he went down to Tacoma. Since then, he's been awesome. Last four starts he's had is ERA's sub 2.5. It's hanging around 2.2. So if Bryce Miller has another tough start here on Saturday, and we talked about this three-start sample for Bryce, what is he going to look like in the first three starts back from the IL?

[00:13:49] Is that cortisone shot going to help? If it doesn't, and Logan Gilbert's actually getting close to returning, because it made it sound like on the broadcast that he's closer than maybe the general perception believes, given the reports about his velocity. So if Logan Gilbert's actually going to come back in the next turn of the rotation, what do they do here? Because I don't know if Bryce has another tough start on Friday. I just don't know how the Mariners could look anybody in the face, unfortunately, right now,

[00:14:18] and say Bryce Miller is giving us more competitive starts than Emerson Hancock. So what you're saying, if Logan comes back next turn through the rotation, is that Bryce gets IL'd and Emerson stays? If Bryce's VLO is still down, and he's still kind of all over the place, and he's not efficient, yeah, I feel like that's almost what you have to do. I don't feel like they'd send Bryce Miller back to the minor leagues.

[00:14:48] That's what I'm saying. I'm like, so the decision is IL or, yeah, it's like IL or minors, they're going to put him on the IL. They're not. Bryce Miller is not going back to Tacoma. He has nothing to gain by going to Tacoma. Going to Tacoma is not going to increase his velocity. No, not at all. So I don't know. Like, it's going to be a very interesting start, and I think a lot weighs on that start, because again, Emerson Hancock has been valuable to this team this year. He has helped them stay in games.

[00:15:18] His VLO's up. He's missing bats. He's been good. What if the second start of this three-start sample for Bryce is bad, and the third one's good? Does that change anything for you? A little bit, but then what if Logan Gilbert's back before Bryce has the chance to make that third start? That's a good question. I would say, and remember, for an injury, they could send Emerson down, which they've already done this season. They're not burning another option, and then just bring him right back up because of an injury.

[00:15:49] Like, they wouldn't need to leave him down there for 15 days. I mean, that could happen, but again, Logan got asked if he's going to be on this road trip, and he said yes. This road trip's only a week long. Three in Anaheim. Sorry, yeah, three in Anaheim, and then three in Arizona. It's not a long road trip, and Logan Gilbert's going to be on that road trip. That would also be a time window where he can make another rehab start, and he also talked about, he feels like the reason his velo was down,

[00:16:17] which apparently he didn't even realize it was down until he heard from all the media on Thursday that it was. He said the reason was there's not enough space in Tacoma for him to do all his plyo ball work between innings and stay loose, and that's why he felt like his velo was down. So he doesn't sound that concerned about it. And again, if he's going on this road trip, it doesn't sound like he's going to leave mid-trip to go make another rehab outing. To be fair, though, they're not going that far on this road trip. They're going to Southern California and Arizona, which is right in the footprint of the PCL.

[00:16:47] Where are the Rainiers going to be? You can look it up, but I, well, the Rainiers are going to be at home because they're at home for four straight weeks. They have a long home stretch, the Rainiers. So this is what I'm saying. If you're Logan Gilbert, why would you get on the plane, fly to California, and then just fly back to Seattle early just to go make your rehab? He was on the last road trip too, right? Yeah, but he didn't rehab on that road trip. I mean,

[00:17:16] he's mostly on the road trip so the Major League trainers can see him every day. But couldn't you leave a couple of them back in Seattle with him? In theory, yes, but I'm sure the Mariners would rather have everyone just together. It's going to be very interesting what happens with Logan Gilbert on this road trip. And again, it's one or two starts, I think, left in Tacoma for Logan. That's what I think it is. So you think that, but again, the Mariners kind of make it sound like there's a chance he just makes his next start with the big league club and is off the IL.

[00:17:46] So we're going to see. It is going to be, if Bryce Miller, or sorry, if Logan Gilbert makes more rehab outings and this conversation gets delayed. If Logan Gilbert's going to come back and Bryce struggles on Friday against Anaheim, it's an interesting conversation. I think Bryce, we owe it to Bryce Miller to let him do these three starts. Because I think doing what he did last year buys you that kind of leash. Sure, but you do get to wait. But let's, let's remember this three start sample thing

[00:18:15] is an us thing. This is a Marine layer pod thing. It's a, it's a fiction. It's a, like it's a fiction number that we made up for Bryce for starts we want to see. I don't know what the Mariners are thinking for what they want to see. How many starts they want to see. Unfortunately, unless Bryce goes to the Mariners and says, I can't do it. I'm having a hard time thinking they will keep Emerson Hancock on the roster over Bryce if he says he's healthy and feels good and wants to pitch. I think it's as much of a Bryce decision as it is a Mariners decision. That's probably right,

[00:18:45] but I'm just saying it feels like a, it feels like a bit of a tough sell right now. Maybe it doesn't help you win. Yeah, you're right. It might not help you win at all. You'd say actually our odds of winning have gone down if that's the case if Bryce is not 100% and his velo is down and he gets blown up a little bit. Like, yeah, 100%. It's an interesting conversation. that's, they're just going to have to play it out. Like, this is the situation. This is the injury regression. This is all of these factors that are coming in

[00:19:15] that you did not have to deal with last year that because every major league team throws hard and every major league team goes through injuries, like, these are the things you're going to have to deal with and that's what the Mariners are going to have to deal with. If they just, at some point, I'm sure they would like to have some consistency and they would say, yeah, we'd like Bryce to be consistent in that rotation because we know what he does when he is. And then our pitching staff can maybe not be bottom third in baseball anymore. Playing the best pitchers park in baseball and we have a bottom third pitching staff. How does that work?

[00:19:46] Shouldn't work. No. Especially when your rotation is supposed to be this good. Yeah. The last thing... had been really good. Logan's been... Logan Evans has been really good in his short stint in the big leagues. But the rest of it, some of these other guys you relied upon, it's been some hot and some cold.

[00:20:16] Luis has been good. Yeah, Luis has been good. Got to give Luis his flowers. He turned in another good start over the weekend. Mm-hmm. Tired of the price of everything going up these days? Groceries, rent, you name it, it's all going up. But not at Metro. They've got your back. Metro has lowered their prices and are giving you a five-year price guarantee on talk, text, and data. One line? Now 20% lower. Family plans? Also lowered. Oh, and you also get a free 5G phone. All with no ID required

[00:20:45] and no activation fees. Stop by your neighborhood Metro store, visit metrobytmobile.com or call to find out about their amazing offers. Bring your number not available if currently at T-Mobile or with Metro in the past 180 days. Guarantee covers monthly price of on-network talk, text, and 5G data for customers activated on an eligible plan. Exclusions apply. Details at metrobytmobile.com The other topic I want to hit on here before we get to the mailbag is, again, getting back to the offense.

[00:21:15] Are we ready to have the conversation? Because I know there's a layer or two to this. Let me just start with this. Because you talk about the Cal Raleigh effect and what the rest of the team has done as a result aside from Cal. You also said you want to give Julio and JP a pass. That's fine. I might even give Randy Rosarena a pass. Getting past essentially the first four in the lineup or the guys that should hit is the first four in the lineup but sometimes Jorge Polanco still hits second after having a 400 OPS in the month of May.

[00:21:45] But I guess that's... Well... We could talk about the lineup for two hours. I mean, aka deciding that Cal Raleigh actually shouldn't hit in the first inning and should get less at-bats. Cal Raleigh is guaranteed less at-bats than Jorge Polanco who's been among the worst hitters in baseball for over a month now. Does not make any sense at all. Well, I would love to think that people are going to get answers on this but friend of the pod Adam Jude

[00:22:14] certainly had a tweet the other night that kind of displays all of this in the sense of I don't think we're going to get an answer. His exact wording on Wednesday night after the loss was this. He said, the formula for the Mariners recent slide remains much the same. Not enough offense early, not enough relief late, and not much of an explanation from Dan Wilson about any of it. Find me the lie. Dan, why is Jorge Polanco hitting second after having a 400 OPS

[00:22:43] for the month of May and clearly is not fully healthy? No answer. Well, Thursday after the game, I understand Dan may be of the mindset that he wants to criticize privately and preach publicly, but man, talking about like continuing to talk about after losses about like seeing a lot of good things and like liked our fight today and then doesn't really give answers to any real questions during postgame press or is it yeah, it

[00:23:14] it can be a little jarring. Yes, but well, it's bugging all of us bugging everybody. It's a little jarring. Like it's like I don't know. Maybe maybe this is the wrong road to go down and it's a waste of time. But yes, like some of the answers in the media are jarring, I think. But how much better would you feel if you had answers? I'm curious. Well, at least there'd be some transparency at least like people could somewhat resonate with the thought process of what's going on. This is something Scott Service I thought was always pretty good at. Maybe you didn't

[00:23:43] always agree with his decisions. Maybe you didn't always agree with how well the team was playing, but you could follow along with the thought process of the team and how they would go about their business. So there was more of an understanding and more of a connectivity between team and fans or team and media and the media connecting it to fans than whatever in the world is going on right now because again, there's no identity and you've got maybe the most proficient reporter on the beat. Certainly the most proficient independent reporter

[00:24:13] because the Seattle Times is independent feeling what reads from this tweet frustrated that people cannot get answers and there's there's a lack of results since the month of May. Should throw a question in there to Dan on why Jorge Polanco is bunting with two outs and the base is empty. Good Lord. And then Tavares tried it in the ninth. Oh my God. Anyway, all right. Let's let's stay on the let's stay on the topic of the offense here and then we'll get to some mailbag questions. Okay.

[00:24:42] This offense since May has been a nice way to put it is disappointing. The other side of this is an abomination. They have they have like they have severely struggled once you get past the main four JP Julio Cal a Rosarena. I mean you can just read the OPS is going down in the lineup man. If you just want to read through them Polanco's technically at 787 but this is a guy that was anchored by April and then had an OPS barely over 400

[00:25:12] in May. That's Polanco. You have Rowdy Tellez at 683 playing a premier offensive position at first base. Solano by the way is even worse. He sits at just above 400. Then you've got Leoti Tavares at 552. You have 579 but again another guy who was anchored by April and then put up about a 680 OPS for the month of May. You want to keep going? You want to read a couple of the names that weren't in the lineup on Thursday?

[00:25:42] Ben Williamson 575. Mitch Garver 569. It just right now is a non-existent offense once you get past the first four in the lineup. I'm sorry man but it's time to bring it up here on June the 5th because we've had enough of a sample size. You are seeing the results of this offseason now punch you square in the face. The lack of urgency and the lack of transactions and the lack of impact that you added to this

[00:26:11] offense is punching you right in the face. You are 28th in the league since the month of May in batting average. Or I'm sorry an on-base percentage. You are bottom five in batting average. You are bottom five in Woba. If you take away Cal Raleigh's home runs you are 28th in the league in home runs hit since May 1st. This is an offense that has flat out been bad, non-performative, and the worst part about it

[00:26:41] is I don't know if I have any confidence in any of these guys except for the main four to turn this thing around. Like you pinpoint the guys on the roster not named JP, Julio, Cal, or Rosarena. I right now severely lack confidence in any of the remaining nine position players on the roster to help anchor this thing in the right direction. Cole Young we can leave out of it because it's been five games for him and again there's going to be some adjustment period for Cole Young. So when I say nine

[00:27:11] it's eight. Take him out. He's a different project on his own. You've got to let him have some time. But this is a problem, dude. I don't see this getting any better until the trade deadline and we've got a long two months to go before that trade deadline ends. You won't be able to float until the trade deadline if your pitching staff is doing what it's doing on top of that. Because even if the Mariners didn't transact with their offense all offseason and say they also expect will be a bottom third

[00:27:41] offense this year. But if we have one of the three best pitching staffs in all of Major League Baseball, then we can make it to the trade deadline and then go add when people want prospects. Because that was one of their big beefs with the offseason. On top of the fact they set an arbitrary budget of what they were willing to spend, they did try and go trade for guys but people don't want prospects in the offseason. Like, no, we want to get better. We don't want to trade for prospects. But at the deadline, teams are a little more willing to go trade for prospects like going and getting Randy or Rosarena. So yeah, I

[00:28:10] wouldn't fret over... So here's the thing. If they're in position, I think they're going to go out there and they're going to add at the deadline. I think they will be aggressive. I think they will trade prospects if they need to go acquire whatever impact is out there at the deadline. But you have to make it to that point. And another mailbag question, again, that will tie into this nicely, is like, all right, you're, what, four games over? Three games over right now? What's your record going to be on July 25th when the deadline's closing in?

[00:28:40] Can you make it to July 25th with a bottom third offense and a bottom third pitching staff above 500 and in position to buy? Like, hoping what happened to the Tigers last year who were well below 500 at the deadline, trade Jack Flaherty away and then go on this insane run to make the postseason. That's not a strategy. Like, I hope that's not the thought, the thought process here. And again, if you make it to the trade deadline as I put out in the offseason and you're below 500

[00:29:09] and you're selling, then, you know, the 10 years have been good, but it's probably time at that point. resurgence to put themselves in a position to continue to add at the deadline? I certainly hope so. I'm not going to definitively say no, but to the point that you made, since May 7th, they're 10 and 15. They've lost 7 of their last 10 as we're sitting here recording. They've also lost 10 of their last 15. And as we know,

[00:29:39] most of their wins have come from in April when the offense was really good and on a tear. It has disappeared and evaporated since then. And you have to bank on the fact it's going to come back with all the guys that I listed past the first four names to find a way to come together and pick up the pace once you get past the first half of the lineup. You have to have confidence in these guys to do that. Like, do you? Right now, like, is there somebody you point to? Take J.P. Julio Cala Rosarena

[00:30:08] out of it and take Cole Young out of it. Is there somebody in the remaining eight or multiple guys in the remaining eight that you look at and say, like, I am confident they're going to help spark this thing again? No, I'm not. But this lineup's not going to win on depth. It's going to win on its highest paid and biggest star players playing out of their mind. What if, let me present three players that start playing extremely well down the, over a month, two months, or even from now until the rest of the season. Julio, Logan Gilbert when he

[00:30:38] comes back, and George Kirby. Let's say those players play, let's say Julio plays like he did in 2023, and Logan Gilbert and George Kirby just do what they did last year. You're buying at the deadline. That's enough, right? Even without, even the rest of that lineup. Like, that's enough? I would say maybe it's enough. But that's not even the most, that's not even very unrealistic to ask for, because Julio does this every season. He did it in September last year, he did it in August, July and

[00:31:07] August of 2023, he did it all of 2022. That is not unrealistic to ask. Logan Gilbert did it for an entire season last year. George Kirby has essentially been the same pitcher since he debuted. Like, it's not unrealistic to ask for those things. And we've seen that combination prop up mediocre to bad players elsewhere in the roster. Because this is a common theme, they always do this. Okay, so two responses to that. Number one, you do have to bank on that. You have to bank on Logan Gilbert getting back on the field relatively soon.

[00:31:37] I think there's a chance he makes his next turn in the rotation, but if he's just making the trip to continue rehabbing and recovering, let's say it's another couple weeks and it's toward the end of June that he doesn't get back on the field. It's still a long time. Let's say George Kirby still takes some time because he didn't have a spring training. He still may need some additional starts to build himself back up. What if he is not at full strength till the end of June? What if Julio doesn't hit his hot streak until August again, like last year? And by the way, you factor that all in.

[00:32:07] That's one scenario. The other scenario is what if those guys do everything that you said they're going to do? But Cal Raleigh from now until August puts up an 800 OPS combined. Really good two months if he has an 800 OPS. That's not a 1200 OPS. That's not carrying a team and that's a 400 point drop off from where he just was in the month of May. How much different is the winning percentage? So we're saying uncertainty with Logan and George, Julio waits until August and Cal has an 800 OPS until the

[00:32:37] deadline. I'm just saying all those factors are possible. Like what? So, but that's the scenario you're laying out. Uh, you could factor all of them in at once. I was honestly trying to do two separate ones. Let's say every guy you named in the three of Julio, George Logan take more time, but Cal continues to go off or Cal just has an 800 OPS. But those guys start to play how you're describing they're going to play that they're going to hit their stride. Like are the Mariners that different from

[00:33:06] where they're at right now? If Cal goes back to being an 800 OPS hitter, very good. But Julio, Logan, George pick up the slack. I don't know. I would say, yeah, I would say there'll be better than what they're doing right now because what they're doing right now is clearly not good enough. Well, like Cal has a 1200 OPS, but clearly it's not enough. How much better? Are they going to be a 500 team until the deadline? They might buy if they're a 500 team. They just can't be five under. This is not a fun conversation. No, it's not a fun

[00:33:36] conversation. And there's a reason we have so much time before the deadline to figure it out. And the fact we're having this conversation and throwing these scenarios out and you're giving the names of Julio, George, Logan is because I think I can speak for you when you say you're not confident in the rest of the offense carrying much weight. like you are yet. Like you said, you are banking on the stars of this team. You are banking on a very specific group of players to really carry

[00:34:06] a 26 man roster, which is fine. And star players do carry teams. A lot of teams have more star power than the Mariners do. But the other side to this is asking your role players to play roles rather than be negative anchors. And what the consensus I'm picking up from the two of us is there's not much faith in the rest of this lineup to turn things around. Yeah, but what if all of your star players just play well?

[00:34:34] It's still like I mean, is it not a black hole five through nine in the lineup? It is. But we just need to get to the deadline. That's what this conversation is about, making it to the deadline. I mean, can they even do enough at the deadline to seriously change the course of this team? Well, we know what it's going to take for them to seriously change the course of this team and they're not going to do it. But in terms of actually adding up the deadline? Sure. Oh, like Randy Rosarena was about as good of an addition as you could have possibly had at last year's deadline. Did it mean shit?

[00:35:05] By know what it takes, you mean spend actual money. Spend more money or make the decisions that need to be made when hiring people to run the team. That's the other part of this too. Again, obviously this can all come back to the fact of an arbitrary budget that gave them absolutely no wiggle room and no power to work with all offseason to bring in significant talent to upgrade your roster. But even the guys that got brought in, the two moves right now are Donovan Solano with an OPS barely over 400 and Jorge Polanco, a guy with an OPS barely over 400

[00:35:34] since the start of May. So even the resources they did use are not helping this roster right now. Yeah, and some people would say, well, they had to make those decisions because the budget was so small. But there are teams out there with similar or smaller budgets that don't mess up that much. And again, when you get 10 years of runway to put your implant, put your stamp on a team and have a process and all this kind of stuff and build a successful team and these are the things

[00:36:04] we're talking about in year 10, like we're having the same conversation we had in year 5. Wrap this up by reading the quote and then we'll get to mailbag questions. February 3rd, 2025. Tweet from Ryan Divish. Miss him, by the way. We're halfway done with this sabbatical. Really, really miss him. I can't wait to see him again. Jerry DiPoto says after they signed Jorge Polanco and in their essential postseason, their offseason wrap-up press conference, quote, it's been a pretty quiet offseason and I

[00:36:34] think that's reflective of a team that didn't have a whole lot of holes to fill. And you know, we feel great about our farm system. We feel great about the stability of our team and we feel like our offense doesn't get enough credit for the things they do well. Yeah, I'm looking at that tweet here on June 5th. Doesn't line up. A lot. In fact, I'll take it a step farther. I read that tweet and I say, false. Incorrect. There are holes on this offense. In fact, you can point out a whole lot of them right now.

[00:37:05] So, look, all right. I promise I wasn't going to do this. So, let me come back down to earth here. I caught myself. There are 101 games left in the year at the time of recording this. Things can change. The offense could get hot again. Maybe Rowdy and Demo and some others get back to what they were doing in April. Maybe Cole, you know, Cole Young starts to pick it up and he starts to play his role. Maybe there are some ways that this thing can change.

[00:37:33] However, as we sit here on June the 5th and we read that quote back from February, we have enough of a sample size to right now, say at this point of the year, as we're over a third of the way through the season, that is not true. There are massive holes in this lineup and in this offense, much like a lot of people predicted would be the case all winter. Yep. And your rotation is unable to offset at this time because they've not been good either. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:38:04] All right. Ready for the mailbag? Let's do that right after we take a pause and talk to you guys about our friends over at Pogaccia's Pub 85. It's an awesome spot to hang out, you guys. If you want to plan a time with your friends, head over there. There's great food, drinks, games. There's 20 TVs in the place if you want to go watch some sporting events and there's plenty throughout the summer, plenty of baseball games to go watch. And if you go during happy hour, you can get three and four dollar drinks. Awesome specials throughout happy hour on Monday through Friday. That's from 2 to 6 p.m. And once again, drinks are three and four bucks. Awesome deals.

[00:38:33] Go get yourself involved. Go check it out. That's Pogaccia's Pub 85 over in Kirkland. Yeah, I'm ready for the mailbag. All right. So let's get to the mailbag. First up is Corey. Shout out to Corey. Sends us in a question on Patreon. A reminder to all of you who want your questions answered on these mailbags. The best way to do it is to go on over to our Patreon and sign up. Then you'll get priority for mailbag questions just like Corey does. So thank you, Corey, for supporting us. Corey's question is, I want you guys to have a little bit of fun with this.

[00:39:04] Each one of you give me one former Mariner that has not won any major award or made an all-star game that you would add to this team to make them better. And that's no awards or all-star game for their career, not just with the Mariners. Curious to see what you guys come up with. Wait, did I read this question wrong? I thought Corey just said it can't be an all-star with the Mariners. Nope. Period. Let me reread this question. All right, you go first because I could have sworn it was phrased differently. So you go. Okay. I do have a, I

[00:39:33] literally have the perfect addition. And what we complained about, like one of the Mariners' bigness weaknesses on, on Wednesday was the bullpen. And more importantly, the lack of good to elite middle relief in their bullpen. I present to you, Lyle, Tom Wilhelmsen. Wow. Is that not perfect? Tom, here's a stat. First of all, like, dude appeared in 73 games. I mean, he's his 2012 season, his best year. 73 games, a 2-5 ERA,

[00:40:02] a 2-9 FIP, 27% strikeout rate, a 9% walk rate. Really, really good season for a reliever. Threw upper 90s, had a great breaking ball for his time, was really fantastic. This dude in 2014 threw in every single inning as a reliever. Let me repeat myself. Every single inning, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. Every single inning he threw in in 2014. Is that not exactly what they need? Like, if a starter gets blown up in the fourth,

[00:40:32] Tom Wilhelmsen comes in and gives you an inning in two-thirds and locks it down. Is that not perfect? That'd be great. That'd be awesome. They could use it. And he fits, yeah, he fits on this team. He fits exactly what they need. There's a power arm in the bullpen. Reliable, high upside, pitch him on back-to-back days, durable, can go long. I mean, it's great. He's awesome. Okay, so I'm gonna have to change my answer on this. Who'd you choose?

[00:41:01] Well, I thought the idea with this is you just couldn't be an all-star with the Mariners. So my answer for this was gonna be Adrian Beltre and you just put prime Beltre back on the Mariners and have him play third base. Yeah, that would be pretty good. Yeah. That would be pretty good. It's hard to do with position players, though, because whenever the Mariners have a good position player, more often than not, they're the sole representative of the team. Right. You could pick a lot of that 2014 bullpen, Lyle. They need more bullpen arms.

[00:41:31] Yeah, they do. You could do, like, 2014 Yorvis Medina. Well, I was trying to think of something different because you picked a bullpen arm and you're right that most of the really good position players made an all-star game at some point. Like, I was trying to remember if Tino Martino's made an all-star game and he did. He made two of them. In fact, in 97, he almost won the MVP. I was gonna say Daniel Vogelback, too, but he made the all-star game the one year he was really good in Seattle. Yeah, they need somebody better than Vogie. I'm sorry. Oh, I mean, he's better than what they currently have. Right?

[00:42:00] I mean, Daniel Vogelback had a good, like, couple of months and then that was the end. Oh, here's an idea for you. 2020 Kyle Lewis. That is a good one. Oh, wait, no, he won an award. Just kidding. Yeah, he won an award. Damn. All right, hang on, hang on. I can do this. I was gonna say, no, wait. Yeah, this is, this is harder if I'm trying to think of a position player here.

[00:42:29] Because like you said, all the good position players probably made all-star games at some point. Gene made an all-star game. Kyle Seager made one all-star game. Hanager made an all-star game in his prime. I mean, like, all the positions the Mariners could really use, and obviously their first base track record over the years is, is not stellar. So, I'm trying to think through this a little bit. Like the entire 0-1 team made the all-star game. Right.

[00:42:59] This is tough. Why don't we come back to this one? Why don't you think a little bit as we go along? All right. Again, I thought the question was different and they just couldn't be an all-star as a Mariner. In that case, it's, it's Beltre in a heartbeat. Because that would be. Did Pineda make an all-star game? I think he did, right? Yeah, but they don't need a starter. I'm trying to think of somebody else. A rotation. That's bottom third doesn't, couldn't use a starter. Prime Michael Pineda. You know the Mariners are not focusing on adding to their rotation. So, I'm not either.

[00:43:29] He did make it. He was a, when he was a 22-year-old rookie, he made the all-star game. I do remember that. JJ Putz made an all-star game too. That one season in 2007. Right. All right. Like, here's one for you. What if you got, oh, he made an all-star game too. I was going to say Brandon League adding to the bullpen. Jeez. What about David Artsma? Yeah, he was good. Right. I don't know if he was great. I'm like, is there not a better name? I mean, he already had a

[00:43:58] really good year in 09, but is there not a better name of somebody that's been a Mariner position player? All like not an all-star, but really good. Hmm. Oh, how about this? Here's one. Wait. Damn it. He's been an all-star too. I was going to say Tao. Get Dodgers Tao on this team. Hmm. Yeah, that would be really good. I got it, Lyle. Got the perfect one. Oh boy. Abe Toro? He's versatile. Plays multiple positions.

[00:44:28] He can even DH if you need him to. Abe Toro. Yeah. Do you want to talk about the numbers he's rocking in Boston right now? No, not really. Oh, I think you do. No, I don't think so. Oh, I think he's been pretty good. I think we can go on to the next question if he can't figure anything out. Fine. We can move on. I'll keep thinking on it. Sorry, Corey. I thought I read it a little bit differently. Tanner on Patreon asks the question of if you're stranded in a jungle and you have to pick a position player, a pitcher, and a

[00:44:58] coach to survive with, who are you taking and why? The pitcher, I'm going to choose Jackson Coar because he's from Florida and he's a big human being. We have a very good friend, Jeremy from Florida. He's awesome. If there was ever anyone you would trust to fight a snake or a gator, it would be someone from the state of snakes and gators in Florida. So yeah, I'm choosing Jackson Coar, big human being, looks pretty intimidating. I wouldn't want to fight him if I was an animal. Just say it.

[00:45:27] You're trying to say Florida man, a Florida man. He's a Florida man. Yeah, he is a Florida man. Grew up in Florida, went to Florida, and now is up here. He's like, yeah, it's Tama up here. Position player, I don't know how you can't choose Cal, like he's a mountain, and he's great, all around great. He's like the goat at everything. So yeah, I would want Cal. Cal could probably, it's pouring rain and we need a fire lit. Cal's making a fire, no problem. It's perfect. I'm sure he's got elite outdoor skills too. And then the coach, this is a bad group of coaches to choose from.

[00:45:57] I don't, I don't know who I, who I would choose. I went with Eric Young Jr. Cause I think he'd just give us the best chance to survive. Not like, he's not old and he's not like, like Pete Woodworth, for example, not old, but he's like super skinny. Like is Pete, is Pete going to fight a gator? So we've got, we've got two of the three same answers on here. I have Cal because one, he's really smart and two, he's like you said, he's great at everything and he's just, you know, he's a physical dude.

[00:46:27] So, and he, you know, he can take a lot of punches. He obviously takes a lot of, you know, he takes a lot of baseballs off the chest and off the knee and wherever else throughout a year. Like he's tough. I had Eric Young Jr. too, because I don't know, I picked him cause he's really fast. And I figured maybe that could help you get off an island or find some tactics to escape or something like that. But I went with Eric Young Jr. Also pitcher. I went with Kirby cause he feels like the guy that if something was standing in your way and you had to fight an animal or something, some impending

[00:46:58] object that he just gets super pissed off and fight him for you. So those would be my three. Wouldn't it be a little weird though? Like, cause Kirby's not the most, he's not the biggest social bug in the world. No, there'd be some, there'd be some quiet times, but maybe, maybe that'd be good for you. Yeah. Although that may not matter in the end. Okay. All right. Let's go to the next question. This comes from Xander on Patreon and Xander has a trade proposal for us.

[00:47:27] Xander's idea is that the Mariners trade with the Diamondbacks. They acquire Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor. They send back to the Diamondbacks, Tyler Locklear and Hunter Cranton. The Mariners have to take on roughly $13 million in salary and both those players are rentals and will be free agents after the season's over. Xander. Clap it up. Clap it up for this one. The Mariners acquire Josh

[00:47:56] Naylor and Geno back at this deadline. How could you not be fired up? How could you not be fired up? Impact first baseman, slugging third baseman who's still hitting in Geno. That solves your infield if you go and do that. Sign me right up. I'm in. Count me in for this. Like again, the only thing you'd have to do is convince Mariners ownership to take on $13 million in season. That's it. That's the hurdle of this. Maybe the Diamondbacks

[00:48:26] would eat some of it. We'll see. And you might have to give up a little bit better of a prospect then. I guess maybe a little bit, not a ton, but for half a year, both. I don't know. Well, for two players. Yeah. Because you're right now you're trading someone who is stuck in AAA, not hitting currently in AAA. And you have a reliever who has yet to pitch this year and is going to be 26. All right. So maybe it costs a little bit more. Regardless, they pull off that in a heartbeat.

[00:48:56] Like the Mariners have to jump on that. And this is not to be a disrespect to Tyler Locklear or Hunter Cranton. This is about the Mariners needing to upgrade their lineup. And that being two pieces that absolutely upgrade their lineup for all the, for all the talk we just gave about the offense. If you get those two guys and your lineup on August 1st looks like this as follows. How do you feel? Cal at catcher, Naylor at first, Cole Young at second, JP at short, Gino at third, Randy and left,

[00:49:25] Julio and center, and Luke Raley, who should be back by then and right with somebody else. D Hing. Do you feel better? I do. Sounds pretty good to me. Yeah. Now you also still have to go trade for two bullpen arms after doing that, but still sign me right up for that trade. But if that's the cost for those two, yeah, you can absolutely go afford to overpay for a bullpen arm from someone else. Yeah. Also like convincing the Mariners they have to take on that money at the deadline. Like, yes,

[00:49:56] take it on. Isn't this what you allocate your funds for things at the deadline? Yeah. And on top of that, you don't, you don't owe them money next season. It's just this year. Correct. Otherwise you're fine. You signal to everybody that you are fine rolling out the same lineup you currently have, which we just spent the first half, not the whole first half of this podcast, but a good chunk of this podcast talking about is a real issue. Pick what, as Trevor may like to say in that video, this off season, our buddy Trevor may, he goes, yeah, pick one.

[00:50:25] So pick one. All right. Next mailbag question, Lyle, you want to read this one? Sure. This is from Robert, also on Patreon. He asks, did George Kirby show enough in his last start this past week? Still look better than his first couple starts, but to me it looked a little shaky. And he adds in at the end of it, meanwhile, Logan Evans is ready to go, just saying, as a sort of hint of the reasoning

[00:50:54] of this question. Did I see enough? I've, objectively, no, I have not seen enough from George Kirby, but it's not seen enough to stay in the big league rotation, it's seen enough for him to get back to where he was before. George Kirby could suck the rest of the year and he'd stay in the rotation. Fully believe that. He's not going anywhere. Like, I just hope he gets better, and I think he will get better because the stuff is too good, and the more repetition he'll get in,

[00:51:23] he will get back closer to where he was last season and the season before, but, he's not getting sent down for Logan Evans. I love, love Logan, he's pitched great at the big league level, but that's just not happening. Well, they're just, it's not about Logan Evans, it's just, they're not going to send George Kirby down in general. They're just not going to do that. He's too, he has too much talent. Yeah. I personally,

[00:51:52] while it was not a perfect start, did like some of the stuff that he showed back on Tuesday. Again, not perfect, giving up eight hits is not great, but, I think five and two is a perfectly okay outing. It keeps you in the ball game. I think the big thing here to remember, even before I get to some of the other numbers, is, and I don't think we can harp on this enough, George Kirby did not have a spring training. He had no starts to just build up

[00:52:21] and work through things and, you know, basically have a platform to fail if he needs to fail in exhibition outings before pitching in real meaningful games. He did not have that the way everybody else did. And I think that's made a big difference. You're seeing him work through some things early on here, which is fine. It might just take him a little bit of extra time. Now, what he did in this past start, if you want reasons why I liked what I saw, number one, he generated 11 whiffs. So guys were missing at the stuff he was

[00:52:51] throwing at him. 11 whiffs is not an overwhelming number of whiffs, but it's not nothing either. So he started to miss some bats, especially on the four-seam fastball where he got seven swing and misses. That was up toward 98 miles an hour as well, so the stuff is there, which is a good sign. And while he gave up hits, like he's around the strike zone like always, he only gave up one walk, so he's around the strike zone, fastball velo's up, you've seen him miss some bats. I think you're seeing pieces of this starting to build back up, and five and two is not

[00:53:20] some egregious outing, where I don't think we're that far off from seeing the normal George Kirby again, but I do think you're seeing him make up, like trying to make up for some lost time in meaningful regular season games for what he didn't get to do in spring training. George Kirby has also always given up hits, so if you say, oh, he's giving up a lot of hits, he led the American League in hits and given up last season. That's not something that he has not done in the past as he's working his way back. The runs allowed aren't great, but yeah, the hits,

[00:53:50] it happens when he throws as many pitches as he does in the strike zone. This is a little tease for next week, just if you're curious on more of George Kirby talk. We had Hembo from ESPN on, and that episode will be out next Friday. He has some opinions on George Kirby. Yeah, Wednesday. Oh, you say Wednesday? Sorry. Wednesday, next week, that episode will drop. He has some takes on George Kirby. Yeah. So, I'll leave it at that. Pay attention to when he talks about George Kirby.

[00:54:19] And Hembo was great. We'll talk about it more next week, but you should listen to that one. He knows his stuff. Knows his stuff, and it was very fun. We'll talk about it more on Wednesday, or more for Wednesday's podcast. But, you know what? To Corey's question, I think I might have found the player. Position player, never made an all-star game that could help this team. And it is not some flashy answer, but I do think it would help. They could use Seth Smith. He never made an all-star game? Never made an all-star game.

[00:54:49] Never won an award. I think that guy would absolutely help this lineup. Because you know what he is? In the most basic, lamest of terms, he's a professional hitter. He's not going to wow you. Sure. Yeah, he's boring. But you know what? This team needs some boring. Because he is not going to wow you with anything. But he is going to be 10-15% above league average as a hitter just about every year. That's basically what he was in Seattle. He's going to hit a few home runs. You know, he's not going to strike out a ton.

[00:55:18] And he's going to give you professional at-bats all the time. And by the way, like, or never mind, sorry, I was going to say. Is he DH-ing? Yeah, he could DH. He could also play some right field because right field with Rayleigh being out hasn't exactly been totally smooth sailing. So there's some different things he could do. Not a, again, flashy answer. But would he help this team? Yes. There are not enough guys WRC plussing above 100 right now. Solid answer. He's the man.

[00:55:48] Yeah. All right, let's get to our next mailbag question. This comes from Mill3013 on Instagram. And the question is, so Julio has a 52% ground ball rate this season. Can he ever be an elite hitter with ground ball rates so high? Yes, but it's going to be difficult. If you want some names that are ahead of Julio in ground ball rate this year, when you look at the league leaders in ground ball rate among qualified bats, Julio's in the

[00:56:18] top 15, but some names ahead of him, Christian Jelic, he's number one, hasn't been a great year this year for him, but he's actually had a pretty high ground ball rate most of his career. Eli De La Cruz is ahead of him. Fernando Tatis is ahead of him. Gunnar Henderson is ahead of him. Carlos Correa is ahead of him. Juan Soto is even ahead of him. So it's not impossible. If you just want the names of guys that are hitting ground balls at a higher rate than Julio Rodriguez, it is not impossible to do

[00:56:47] that and to be a star player. TJ will dive into more of the nuts and bolts of why it's going to be difficult, but to just wrap up my thoughts, I would say when you are Julio and you beat fastballs into the ground as much as you do rather than elevate them, that's what makes it hard. Julio hits balls very hard on the ground often rather than elevating more baseballs in the air. And when you do that, it is much more difficult to

[00:57:16] constantly do damage. So my answer is not impossible, but difficult. I went back and I looked at the past 10 seasons. I took the question, I was like, alright, how many players have had a good season, or sorry, an elite hitting season, which I said is a 150 WRC plus is higher, with a ground ball rate above 50%. So I went into fan graphs and I looked. There have been five seasons in the last 10 years where that's the case. There's an MVP on this list. 2018 Christian Yelich won the

[00:57:46] MVP doing that. The other four seasons, Yelich has done this twice. He did it in 2024 as well. Juan Soto's done this twice. He did it in 2021 and 2023. And Yandy Diaz also did it in 2023. So after that, I went to go look at what everyone had in common with this besides just overall offensive production. So the WRC plus is again all over 150. So that's incredibly productive. But here's things all of these hitters did well. To remain productive

[00:58:16] offensively even though they're beating a lot of balls into the ground. Number one, and probably the most important one, you have to walk a lot. All these guys walked over 10% of the time. The median was more like 12 to 15%. Like a lot. And then you have Juan Soto who had a season where he was 22% walk rate. You have to do that. On top of that, you have to keep your strikeout rate 20% or lower. The highest strikeout rate of that bunch was Christian Yelich at 21%, which was still

[00:58:45] below the league average. Everyone else was under 20%. The home run to fly ball rate, which means the percentage of your fly balls that you hit over the fence for a home run needs to be over 17%. And for a lot of these guys, it needs to be much higher than that. You essentially need to be efficient when you hit your fly balls so that you do the most damage possible and you're not just popping it up. Yelich's MVP season this year, he had a 35% home run to fly ball rate, meaning over a third of the balls

[00:59:15] he hit in the air were home runs that year. That was just an insane number. The league average is 11% this season. And on top of that, you need to bat up a 360 or higher. Batting average on balls in play, 360 or higher. Four of those five guys did that. Julio is only hitting one of those parameters right now. And that's his strikeout rate being below 20%. His walk rate right now is not high enough, 7.5%. His home run to fly ball rate is 15%, above league average

[00:59:45] but still not good enough. And then his 276 Babbitt is also not high enough. Yeah. If that was a lot to digest for anybody, the short way of saying that is it's very hard to hit the ball on the ground that much and be a consistent like a threat in your lineup. True threat. Julio can still be very good, but a true threat it's going to be difficult. So yes, he needs to lift the ball more. All those guys had on-base percentages over 400 as well,

[01:00:15] which Julio has not done. Right. And they don't strike out a lot, most of those guys. Which Julio's strikeouts are down this year. Let's give him credit, but it's got to stay that way. And there's still a lot of swing and miss in Julio's game. There's still a lot of chase. It's a good question though. So it is possible, but it is very, very specific scenarios where it does work. Yeah. Okay. Final mailbag question. This comes from Feats2Fitted on Instagram and he says, what would it take for the Mariners

[01:00:44] to be sellers at the trade deadline? Who would they sell and why? So this is Luke. Shout out to Luke Lyle. We saw him at the ballpark yesterday on Wednesday. Luke's, so the answer to your question, what would the Mariners need to do to sell? They need to be five games below 500 at the deadline. So that's a start. So then who would they sell if they decided to sell? It's not a lot of good sell candidates. Number one would be Randy because he's got a year and a half control. I think another team

[01:01:14] would have great interest in Randy or Rosarino to hit in the middle of their lineup. And I think Dylan Moore, who's a rental at this point, he's going to be a free agent after this season. Another team could plug him in at a number of different positions, hits for a little power, can steal some bases, play solid defense. So that would work out. But everyone else either is not good enough or has too much control for people to want to shell out what it would cost to get them. I think that's right. Nobody's going to take much interest, I would have to

[01:01:43] assume, in any of Polanco, Solano, or Garver. Maybe if Polanco really turns things around here in June and July, somebody might. But yeah, it would be Randy or Rosarino, it would be Dylan Moore. If you want other names to just throw out, I'm sure teams would call about Brash and Munoz. The Mariners can't sell those guys. They just can't do it. There's way too much club control and the bullpen needs way too much help already to begin with. So you can't sell those guys and I don't think the Mariners would sell those guys. So it really comes down to Randy being

[01:02:13] the big one, maybe Dylan Moore. But let me ask you this and turn the question in a little bit of a different way. Luke asks, what would it take for the Mariners to be sellers? And you're right. It would have to be something pretty drastic, especially in this version of the American League where it's just not very good and the American League West isn't very good. Let me ask this question. If the Mariners are in a position in this version of the American League that is so down down in talent and overall wins that they were in a position to

[01:02:43] sell. Are the Mariners even going to let this regime and this front office operate that trade deadline? No. Nope. Yeah. Sorry. Let me revise my question. They shouldn't. By that point, it feels like that's the end of the road. If you are out of it by the trade deadline here in year 10 when you really need to win this year, I don't know. I like like I would that would be a little head scratching to me

[01:03:13] if they were that far out of it where they needed to sell and they still let this front office work the trade deadline. It would make any sense. It would be essentially how the Colorado Rockies operate. Right. Who wrote the art? It was Jordan Schusterman, friend of the pod, wrote that article, right? Yeah, I think. Oh, no, Jake or Jake write that. Story on the Colorado Rockies and you'll get the parallel I'm drawing there that they essentially don't fire anyone ever. Passan was on Pat McAfee recently and

[01:03:42] talking about that, too. He said they're decades behind the rest of baseball and the way they operate. And the Mariners cannot do that. That should not be allowed. If you're going to operate on a budget like you do, you need to be as ahead of a curve as possible. Right. Have to. But yeah, I think that I totally think that. So whoever would be making the decisions at that point would be selling, I think, Dimo and Randy at that point. And then you recoup. You still have a somewhat talented roster and you go into next season.

[01:04:12] And for those for those who would ask, by the way, sorry, last thing, Lyle, and you wouldn't trade Luis Castillo at the deadline. I have a hard time thinking middle of the season. He's going to pack up and leave. I have a really hard time thinking that. No, that's more of an offseason thing for sure. Right. And January 4th. Probably. Well, the no trade clause expires January 1st. Anyway, now if I can get this thought off and say, if you do trade Randy and Demo and reallocate and get some funds off the books, you set yourself up to go sign Kyle Tucker this winter. Woo!

[01:04:43] So you save yourself. How much is Demo making? I mean, Randy's going to make 18 next year. Yeah. So 18 plus, what is it? Five or 3 million for Demo's 21 million on top of a 15 million dollar budget for the offseason would be, what's that, 36 million dollars? If you stretch it out long enough, that should work. And if you get rid of some of Castillo's money this winter too and you're planning for that in advance, I don't know. You could make it happen. I think a wintertime

[01:05:12] hike might be in order. I need it. As much as I hate hiking, I need it to be in order. God. Hopefully, in your case, they don't close the mountain when they trade for him. Then either I just hike up regardless or we find another day. Well, we'd have to find another day because I don't, I physically, do you want to scale like ice sheets? I mean, not entirely, but does it mean they get Kyle Tucker? Well, you would probably like die.

[01:05:41] But how much am I willing to pay price wise to get Kyle Tucker on the Mariners? I didn't say the Mariners were winning a World Series, Lyle. Just said they're getting Kyle Tucker. Well. You think that one over you give us an answer on Monday's podcast. All right. Well, they're signing them this winter. They're getting them and they'll do whatever it takes to make it happen. Anyway, that was a good set of mailbag questions. And yes, shout out to you guys for sending it in. God, now I'm on a Kyle Tucker wavelength here and that's all my brain's going to.

[01:06:10] Well, let's get off the subject. And just a reminder to everybody, if you want to send a mailbag questions in and you want priority, Patreon's the place to go. Go to our Patreon, MarineLayerPod on Patreon and you get priority. If you sign up for our Patreon and we really appreciate the support. Well, let's go down on the farm. Who's your standout Mariners minor leader of the week? I think I'm going to inform some people about a fairly new name and a name that not everybody knows, but he's somebody that we got to talk to in spring training.

[01:06:40] We were a big fan of we actually learned he's a pretty big fan of us, which is super cool, but shout out a guy by the name of Matt Tiberia. So for those who don't know who he is, he was drafted this past summer, 2024, 18th round at a Lynn University that's in Boca Raton, Florida. He's down pitching in Modesto to start the year. He has been awesome so far in nine starts across just under 41 innings.

[01:07:09] He's got a 221 ERA. His whip is right at about one and he's striking out almost nine batters per nine. He's been really good and obviously you've got to find some arms in the system at times that are kind of diamonds in the rough. It's probably too early to know exactly what he's going to be. I'll tell you what, man, through nine starts of his pro career, he's looked really good and just for from a personal like note

[01:07:38] from us here on the podcast, we're fired up for the guy because that's a really cool start to have. So shout out to Matt. Again, he was awesome in spring training when we got to meet him, talk to him and man, I hope he gets moved up to Everett soon so we can go see him in person and catch up with him because he's been great. Sources say Marine Layer Pod merch helps your performance. Tiberia does have a sweatshirt, I will say. Hmm. I don't know if it's a coincidence. Sources are saying so you bought some merch at

[01:08:08] MarineLayerPod.com and started excelling at your job. You thank us. You know who else? It's a win win. You know who else has a Marine Layer Pod hoodie? Logan Evans. I was going to say there's a few. There's a few. Logan Evans has one. He's been pretty good. I don't know if it's a coincidence. Maybe maybe you listeners will have to buy some of our merch and find out for yourself. Shout out Matt Tiberia though. That is that is really cool. When you see stories like this guys who were slept on

[01:08:37] and pick late and again he's a guy who bounced around a little bit in college like he pitched at St. Rose which was in the NE10 and then he went to Lynn and then he gets drafted in the 18th round to do what he's doing so far is really cool. I hope he keeps thriving. The guy I'm going to highlight this week. I don't think we've talked about him yet this season but he's he has been since he signed in the Mariners organization one of the most consistent prospects they have at every single level and that is Mr. Michael Arroyo. Lyle he's back up to a

[01:09:07] 145 WRC plus this season just as he had a 146 last year. Consistent as an 18 year old 128 as a as a 19 year old it was 146 and as a 20 year old this year it's 145. It's pretty consistent. It's really good. Him and him and Laz both are crazy consistent at every level they play at. So Arroyo's done that. I mean you look at Laz at

[01:09:36] every level just to draw the comparison for two guys who are just going off in Everett right now. Laz at 17 years old in the in the DSL puts up a 10.07 OPS. He puts up a 994 in Modesto in 2023. He put up for the year an 881 OPS in 2024 and now he's got a 976 OPS in 2025. Laz and Arroyo just continue to hit and they hit and they hit and it's awesome. I would have to imagine at

[01:10:06] some point in time here barely soon you'll see those two guys up in Arkansas. And they are going to be the youngest players in that league by or close to the youngest players in that league by a pretty sizable amount. Right. I mean we're talking about 220 year olds at this point and those two guys have spent more time in Modesto sorry in Everett than Colt has than Johnny has than some of the others have. So they feel like they'd be the guys that would move a little faster especially given their track record of offense so far.

[01:10:36] But yeah pretty cool. Michael Arroyo shout out to him. One of these guys that's always hanging around the top 100 sometimes is the forgotten about top 100 guy in this system with how good the rest of the field is but just continues to hit pretty awesome. Let's close out the show Lyle and get to our Russell Wilson umpire of the week. I'm pleased to announce we have a new record holder. So there are some Laz's we really like like Laz Montez and

[01:11:05] there's some we just despise like Laz Diaz. It was about a year ago where Angel Hernandez himself set the record for the worst missed call in umpire auditor the account that we love to reference so much history. But Laz Diaz yesterday rang up Jake Mangum or not yesterday it was I think Tuesday regardless earlier this week. This pitch that was rung up for

[01:11:33] strike three was outside by 6.8 inches nearly half a foot off the plate. Then the broadcast goes like sky view of the plate to watch it. I mean it is just like so clearly outside and Laz is like whoa. And you can see Mangum is just like oh my god. You could read his lips. Oh my god. So Laz Diaz has to have vision problems right? I feel like most of these guys do.

[01:12:04] Again it's just how humans age. The average umpire is somewhere between 50 and 70 years old. I don't know. Sorry I'll say 40 and 70 years old. People start having vision problems then. I don't know how these guys are not forced to pass vision tests to keep umping games. I really don't know how. Yeah you would think. Maybe when we're commissioners. Losers. That's what I have to say about Laz Diaz. Loser. Sorry.

[01:12:34] Sorry about it. But like you were on a Mount Rushmore bad umpires in baseball. So. They used the Rays used the reference of the I think it was at leave on her. They referenced that that Marlins playoff game in the 90s. Was it Levon? Was he pitching? Yeah. Hernandez. Yeah. Where he was pitching and he was constantly like throwing the ball foot off the plate. The home plate umpire was like you're out. And they specifically referenced that and I was like oh that's pretty funny.

[01:13:03] What a time. What a time. Shout out Laz Diaz. Constant winner of this award and he wins it again. So. Alright. I think that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full form podcast you can do so wherever you get your podcast or an even easier way to go find it is just go over to our website. Marinelayerpod.com. It's got everything you need. Like TJ said. You wear Marine Layer Pod merch and go get yourself some merch. You're probably going to up yourself in production at your job.

[01:13:33] Work for Matt Tiberia. It's work for Logan Evans. Work for some other guys. It can work for you too. Go over and get some merch. It's like we love seeing people wearing it around. We love seeing people tag us in it. Go get some. It's over at our website. You can go sign up for our Patreon over at our website if you want priority on mailbag questions or you want to do some monthly Zoom calls with us. A bunch of other things. We'd love to have you get involved. Live show schedules over there. Like I mentioned you can find all our episodes over there. That's audio, video, whatever you desire all over at

[01:14:01] MarineLayerPod.com and then you can find us all across social media. Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Pod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.

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