Episode 252: George Kirby Dominates The Angels + Are The Mariners Making Good Use Of Their Resources?

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[00:00:28] Welcome to episode number 252 of the Marine Layer Podcast. The Mariners salvage the Sunday game in Anaheim, but end up losing 2-0-3 to the Angels. They've now lost 10 of their last 12 to a really just not very good franchise. That doesn't sound very good. No, that does not. They need to do a little bit better than that. We'll also discuss a couple of performances from the Mariners rotation this weekend, both good and bad.

[00:00:53] And a little bit of a chat about some of the resources the Mariners have allocated to this roster, some of the spots they put it in and how effective it's been so far this season and last season as well. So here's your guys reminder. Stay on top of all of our stuff. If you want to do that, you can just go right over to our website. That's MarinLayerPod.com. You'll find everything over there, you guys. Merch is all over there. Go get yourself some merch. Summer's basically here. I count summer as Memorial Day weekend is when it starts. So go get your summer gear.

[00:01:23] Get yourself some t-shirts. They're all over at our website. There's hoodies and long sleeves too if you want them. We'd love to see you rocking the merch. A bunch of people have already. Patreon signups are over there. Again, would be awesome to have you get involved with that. Episodes are all over on our website. Audio, video, all that good stuff. Live show schedule. All a one-stop shop. It's over at MarinLayerPod.com And you can find us all across social media at MarinLayerPod. Let's get it rolling.

[00:02:01] And we welcome you to this episode of the MarinLayer Podcast. Part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network. Recording on Sunday evening, June 8th. I'm going to do something rare for us, Lyle. We're going to start off on a positive note. Yeah! Positivity! Holy shit, George Kirby's back. Oh, that's where you're going. Okay. You know what? I'm not even going to say one negative thing yet. Because you brought up George Kirby. I'm not going to sidetrack us.

[00:02:30] I'm not going to mention any negative numbers or stats. Or the fact they lost 5 of 6 to the Angels and the Orioles. Alright, sorry. George Kirby. Awesome. Flat out awesome. Stuff wise. Strikeout wise. As dominant as arguably he's ever looked. And you coined that today. The stuff I think is as good as I've ever seen it from him. There's now two outings now that stick out to me. There's the Diamondbacks start from last year. And there's now this Angels start. He struck out his 12th batter today, Lyle.

[00:03:00] With his 65th pitch. Like this. Usually you're at 100 pitches when you strike out your 12th batter. He was at 65 pitches when he struck out his 12th batter. This dude, when he has his problems, he's usually throwing too many pitches down the middle. And sometimes his stuff doesn't play up enough where he can just pitch it down the middle. Because he's trying to throw so many strikes and get these guys out.

[00:03:28] But today, man, this dude is living around the circle of the strike zone. He is dotting that line from the outer edge to the top, to the inside, to the bottom. He was doing a masterful job with that. That was the best start I've seen from a Mariners starter this season. Not even close. George Kirby essentially had that ball hit him in the face last start. And it awoke the beast. Yeah. And he's back. So you're putting this over all of Brian Wu's outings too. Yes.

[00:03:57] Because Wu hasn't racked up this type of strikeout numbers. No one in the Mariners rotation this year has shown this type of stuff. Yeah. So the two Kirby starts that always stand out to me in terms of his best one are obviously the playoff start, seven shutout at home against the Astros. And then that Felix induction weekend into the Mariners Hall of Fame against the Orioles in 2023 when Kirby essentially channeled his inner Felix by going nine innings and the Mariners lost.

[00:04:27] It was nine in, it was either nine and one. No, I think it was nine shutout and the Mariners lost. So that start is always the one that sticks out to me or I guess those two, but that's to do it in honor. Yeah. I mean, I remember us saying exactly that when that Kirby start happened. It's in honor of Felix being inducted into the Mariners Hall of Fame in honor of Felix weekend. What better way to honor him and praise him and bow down to him then throw nine shutout

[00:04:56] and lose because he did that way too many times in his own career. Anyway, that's in terms of results. When you talk about the stuff that Kirby possesses and his best stuff outings, it was that diamond backstart and it was this one here on Sunday against the Angels 14 punch outs. Like you said, that's not normal. Guys don't just go out and punch out 14. That's some Paul Skeen stuff right there. That's Tarek Scooble stuff right there. Kirby went out and punch 14 guys out in this outing.

[00:05:24] And like you said, all around the zone, fastball was dominant, got over a dozen whips. I mean, he just had it all working. And the difference is, is he was able to get the Angels to be really patient in this start. And then when they would swing and miss, it would be, it would be too late because they weren't able to just catch up and, and, and, and get his stuff. Cause so he had 14 whiffs in this start that diamond back start last year. He had 23.

[00:05:51] So they just could, the diamond backs last year straight up could not hit him. This, this start, I mean, the Angels made some contact on him, but he was placing the ball so perfectly that they weren't always swinging at his stuff. And he was able to get some looking punches too. I mean, it was, it was something the Mariners desperately needed. I had sent you a text before we started, uh, before these games started where I was trying to, we were trying to think of ideas of what we're going to talk about for this episode. We got to plan it out.

[00:06:20] Well, I think usually at least a little bit before we, you know, we get going and we, um, and, and we pick our topics. Yeah. And I was like, for people that don't know, for people that don't know. Yeah. We usually plan shows out a day or two in advance and we start coming up with topics. So that's pretty normal. By the way, I was just curious. I went back and I'm looking at Logan Gilbert starts from last year. The most strikeouts he had in a start last year is 10. Yeah. Never struck out 14 batters. Right. He's never done that.

[00:06:48] And I think Logan Gilbert has better stuff than George Kirby has. He's never struck out 14 batters. Logan has had some great swing and miss days, but he's never had swing and miss results like 14 strikeouts, which is just insane. Anyways, since the Mariners were on such a overwhelmingly positive trend, the first five games they played this week, I prominently turned aloud. I'm like, so when George Kirby doesn't look good again today, we're going to talk about how concerned we are with the starting rotation.

[00:07:17] And I could not have been any more wrong. Thank goodness. Because outside of Brian Wu and some starts from Emerson Hancock as well, man, we just can't say that with how this rotations looked. And they, they need like outside of Wu, they need some, another alpha to step up and say, yeah, not only am I not getting results, but I'm like, I'm dominating. I'm in control. Yeah. So I'd say two things. You mentioned the hard contact. He didn't really give up much hard contact.

[00:07:47] He didn't give up much contact at all. To be honest, it wasn't hard con. It was just like contact period. Sure. But he only gave up two hits, which came all in one inning on a two strike, two out single the opposite way by Mike Trout. And then Taylor Ward got him on one pitch. He squared it up and hit a pretty, you know, a hit a pretty decent sized homer. It went about 430 feet. He hit it really hard. But other than that, it was really just one pitch that got Kirby today.

[00:08:14] If that doesn't happen, if he gets Trout with that two strike, two out at bat, we're sitting here actually talking about that being potentially the best start of Kirby's career. Because there's a world Kirby could have gone, if he doesn't go nine, he goes eight shutout with 14 punch outs, 15 punch outs. And that absolutely would have been the best start of his career. I think of it as, you know, he had a 30% lift rate today. Usually, usually the best starts are a little higher than that. That's, that's what I'm referencing. Right.

[00:08:44] So foul ball, contact, meaning foul balls, we contact, etc. Regardless, we're sitting here nitpicking the fact that the Mariners got essentially a savior of a start. Yeah. That's what they got. The other thing I'd say here is, is it that surprising that we're seeing this from him now? And here's what I mean by that. You cannot expect any pitcher to go out and throw 14 punch outs up on the board on a regular basis. That just doesn't happen. In terms of George Kirby finding his regular form, are we that surprised?

[00:09:12] Because what I mean by this is we've documented it plenty before. Let me just do it again. George Kirby had essentially no spring training. He did not get to build up. Usually, starters get about six starts in spring training. Now, obviously, the first couple are very short. They're two-ish innings. They're maybe 25, 30 pitches. But then you start to build up as the spring goes on. Kirby got none of that. He was rehabbing. And then once he was ready to go on a rehab assignment, he made three rehab starts.

[00:09:42] This was his seventh total start here on Sunday of the year, if you count his rehab outings and if you count his big league outings. So, in a normal buildup where you get about six spring training starts, your seventh start of the season would usually be your first of the regular season.

[00:10:00] So, in other words, if George Kirby had had a normal buildup and let's say his last start back against the Orioles, which was five and two, was his first real start of the year, would sit there and say, all right, his first start of the year, he went five and two. And then he turns around in his second outing and he goes with 14 punch outs across seven innings. What I mean by all of this, as I tie it all in, is George Kirby is now built up.

[00:10:26] Even when he was making his first few starts back off the IL, he wasn't that built up. It had only been a couple rehab outings. Now that he's fully built up, you're seeing George Kirby. And so, let me go back to what I said at the start. Are you that surprised? My answer is no, because I think now he's finally had enough pitches and enough sample size and enough workload to say he's back.

[00:10:50] I'm going to say I was a little surprised on the just outlier results he had today, but I'm not complaining. I just mean there is a lot of people out there. Sorry, there are a lot of people out there. Proper grammar, whoever his first couple starts, put out some takes that really just want to make you bang your head through a wall. People are ready to trade George Kirby after two starts when he's, oh, you've got an 11 ERA. Yeah, he's made two starts this year and he had no spring training.

[00:11:19] Guys, this is what happens when George Kirby gets built up. I'm not saying he's going to go punch out 14 guys over seven every time out. He's not. But you're seeing what George Kirby is at his best and when he's fully healthy. And now he's had the build up to be fully healthy and I think he's all systems go. Until he shows us otherwise too. He's going to have more starts like he had earlier on when he was just getting back because he is if his stuff plays down and he's not perfect command wise like he was today.

[00:11:48] He is going to get hit a little bit because that's just how it works. But if he keeps doing what he did today and essentially live around that ring of the strike zone, he's going to be pretty good. And that's what George wants to do. It was it was great. I'm very I was very happy watching that from Kirby. I did give an oh shit when I watched that ball leave Taylor Ward's bat. I was like, here we go again. Second time through the order. Offense has not been good this series. Mariners starters have been bad this series. I'm like, here we go.

[00:12:18] Here we go. And then George Kirby essentially puts it on lockdown for the rest of the game. I mean fabulous fabulous turn of events. I mean, to be fair, the offense was not good again here on Sunday. Now they got 11 hits, but they didn't drive anybody in. They got three runs fairly early. I guess I got two in the fifth. There's not a lot of add on. I got to tell you. I'm Charissa and my advice to all entrepreneurs is to start with Shopify successfully. I already use Shopify since the first day.

[00:12:47] And the platform makes me no problem. I have many problems, but the platform is never one of them. I feel like Shopify is constantly optimizing. Everything is super easy, integrated and linkable. And the time and the money I spend with that, can I invest in other ways. Especially in growth. Now to be free on shopify.de. Alright. Wow. We made it ten minutes of positivity. Oh, my bad. No, no, no. It's good. We do have more things we need to talk about too.

[00:13:15] But yeah, shout out George Kirby. It's great to see that. If him and Wu, while the other guys work through whatever they're working through, can anchor this rotation, that's going to mean an infinite amount of things. Let's talk a little bit about this offense. Then, well actually, let me propose this question to you, Wyle. What would you like to talk about next? Would you like to discuss Bryce or the offense?

[00:13:44] Well, is this excluding our big, probably overarching topic of this show? Or does that circle back to the offense? The overarching topic will be at the end of the show. Second half of the show. Alright, let's just talk Bryce Miller and then we can do a little bit of offense. Okay. Bryce did not look good again on Friday. There were some positive signs. His velo stayed up in this outing, which was good. And that's a positive. But results wise, yeah man.

[00:14:11] Five innings, five earned, only two strikeouts. We said this three start threshold is what we'd reevaluate him on after he got off the IL. We're two starts in. And I guess if you want to look glass half full, there are pieces to be excited about and pieces to sell yourself on. In terms of the fact his velo stayed up, got through five innings, and didn't drop down to 91 miles an hour.

[00:14:38] But again, he's just, he's lacking the dominance very much so that he had last year. And they might say, okay, since his velo is up, we feel more comfortable that the results will eventually turn. Now that you can consistently hold 95 through five innings, now the command will work its way back and you're going to throw it in the right spots. And you're going to be able to generate a little bit more swing and miss. And that could be a selling point, I think. Because it's a step, technically.

[00:15:06] One of the steps besides the results getting better was him holding his velocity for longer, which he did. So okay, you have to give him that. But it's hard to look at anything else as anything positive. Some startling numbers since the start of May, if you look at his earned runs by start. Four, seven, three, five. Not great. He has not struck out more than three batters in a start since April. Three, three batters in a start. That's not a very high number.

[00:15:36] The Angels, by the way, are one of the two worst teams in baseball when it comes to striking out. And Bryce had two strikeouts against them. After George, today on Sunday had 14. That same lineup struck out only twice against Bryce Miller. Perhaps that comes back when he gets better feel of his splitter. And he feels more comfortable commanding his fastball. But until that is, man, what Bryce Miller is putting out there right now is not enough to stay in the rotation.

[00:16:06] It is going to have to get better at some point. If he does what he does, like what he's done his last four starts, what I've read since the beginning of May. Again, his season ERA will be over six. And where this all comes back to is I think the next week is going to be not just very telling, but for some very tough conversations within that building in the Mariners front office.

[00:16:31] And what I mean by that is if Emerson Hancock, who I think has proved more than enough this year on his own, but especially if he goes out this week against the Diamondbacks and has another good outing. I mean, how do you yank him out of the rotation at this point? I don't know how. I understand that he is the quote unquote odd man out in a rotation that's been tabbed as the best in baseball when the main five guys are at their best.

[00:17:00] Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Wu, Miller. But like it is a results based league. Unfortunately, it is a what have you done for me lately league. And Emerson Hancock has pitched in a way that has forced this team's hand in his last four starts as ERA is sub to five. How different? How different do you think this is?

[00:17:24] If it's not public knowledge now that there is something wrong with Bryce's arm like that, he has a bone spur. What how do you think changes if that doesn't that bone spur doesn't exist? Honestly, I wonder if it changes things even more in terms of favoring Emerson Hancock, because if Bryce Miller was this if Bryce Miller really was healthy fully or just wasn't known what he was dealing with.

[00:17:51] I think then even more we'd be sitting here on June 8th, 9th, looking at each other and saying, OK, it's been two months. If everybody's fully healthy and we're looking at results, especially if you wipe out Emerson's first start of the year. I mean, everything favors Emerson Hancock right now. He is. He has given them better chances to win games since his first start to begin the season.

[00:18:17] It like it's unfortunate, like like I don't enjoy having this conversation one way or another because like it's tough because we love Emerson Hancock and watching him thrive has been awesome. But we also love to watch Bryce Miller. We love Bryce Miller's game and like and you know, he's a fan favorite for a very good reason. So it's a hard conversation to have because you want both guys to thrive. But if you're going to sit here and objectively talk about who's had the better results and who's kept the team in games more this year right now, it's Emerson Hancock.

[00:18:47] It would be harder if there was nothing wrong with Bryce's arm elbow because then we'd be asking who gets sent down. And you would think as we've talked about in previous episodes after what Bryce did last season, you can't really send him down like that. It that just doesn't seem like it would help anybody. So when the Mariners have to make their decision here because Logan Gilbert's gonna get one more rehab outing this week.

[00:19:11] I believe it's gonna be on Tuesday after that when he is presumably ready to go again, which would roughly be Sunday Monday. Well, they have an off day Thursday, so it would be Monday against the Red Sox. Yeah, Monday against the Red Sox.

[00:19:30] Sometime within the 48 hour threshold leading up to that game, the Mariners are gonna have to make a tough decision because you are either gonna have to tell Emerson Hancock he's going back to AAA, which you might do. But I think it's gonna ruffle some feathers one way or not. I'm not saying it's gonna ruffle feathers in the clubhouse. It just it'll ruffle people's feathers in the fan base, which the Mariners are obviously not thinking about in any way, shape or form, which is totally reasonable and what they should do. They got to make decisions based off their own process.

[00:19:59] I'm just saying it could ruffle some feathers because Emerson's been really good. So either that's gonna happen or they're probably gonna have to put Bryce Miller back on the I.L. if they choose to stick with Emerson Hancock. Mm hmm. Now that it's been publicly known what is wrong with Bryce and what he's been dealing with. It's just it's almost this gonna be unfair pressure on him every time he takes the mound. If he struggles, people are gonna just sit there and say, man, I wonder if it's the elbow.

[00:20:28] I wonder if it's the bone spur that's affecting him. What if this is all just like a cascading effect? Oh, you had to take time on the I.L. You had to be a little bit more careful with your ramp up. So now you don't have the great command of the pitches you want. You haven't been able to pitch the volume of innings you've wanted. So you haven't been able to to throw enough pitches to feel comfortable. All of these things sort of stacking on top of each other to get to the point where we're at right now, where Bryce can't just roll through a turn in the rotation as consistently as he did last year,

[00:20:58] because there's other things he has to think about and deal with as he's getting ready for this season. And unfortunately, it has affected the team from a results basis in a negative way. And it's just that's just how it is. I don't want to say this, but I'll just say it anyway. What Bryce Miller is doing right now is not big league quality pitching. It can't stay in the rotation. Again, this is this is such a tough combo. It is tough.

[00:21:28] But again, he's gonna have a six ERA if he does what he did again. That's why it's hard because you know, this is not who Bryce Miller is. I know we should probably make that abundantly clear. And I'm not saying you. I mean, everybody. We know this is not who Bryce Miller is. We know right last season. Yeah, we know Bryce Miller at his best is, you know, his peak can be one of the best pitchers in the American League. We saw it for an entire half of a year. This guy's an all star quality pitcher when he's at his best.

[00:21:57] The problem is he's he's just not at his best right now. And whether that's injury or whether it's something else, it is probably that elbow and it's probably that bone spur. But he's just not getting those results right now. And the Mariners do have to think about just plain and simple winning games. Nobody was gonna yank Bryce Miller after two starts. No one's gonna yank him after three starts anything like that.

[00:22:20] But as we sit here get into the middle of June, and you know, he's dealing with some stuff and you know, Emerson Hancock's pitching well, and you know, you're have to you're about to be forced to make a decision with Logan Gilbert coming back. Yeah, it's gonna be very interesting. Maybe in the end, they just send Emerson back to Tacoma. Maybe that's what happens. But I think it's gonna be a very interesting choice one way or another. You can look at the rate stats too. He's not striking enough guys out his strikeout rates 18% and his walk rates 11%.

[00:22:49] Like these are these are things that people pay attention to and look at when you observe like the quality of pitches coming out of your hand and how effective you are getting guys out those those are not good rates. Well, the last thing I'll add on this is that it would be a lot easier to deal with if you have the Mariners rotation last year, and you had Bryce struggling because at least you know, you would get the other four guys would be quality to elite all the way around and they do it every single time.

[00:23:16] And Bryce didn't have as much pressure on him to say all right, like people are relying on you now. Like it wouldn't be the case. But the Mariners rotation this year has been far from elite. So you need results out of this rotation. And especially given how the offense is performed recently, you need you need to find ways to give yourselves opportunities to win you games and the Mariners have not been doing that enough. Whether it be their rotation, whether it be their offense, whether it be their bullpen. Whether it be their bullpen.

[00:23:43] So unfortunately tough decisions do need to be made at some point in order to put emphasis on winning games in and see hey, we're at a first place already in June. We need to take a step towards getting back into first place by August and September. Yeah. And again that 11% walk rate. I'll say it again. That's just not Bryce Miller. That's not him. That's not what he does. That's not what he thrives on. He's not a guy that walks the world by any stretch. In fact, he barely walked anybody last year.

[00:24:13] So yeah, I'll say it again. I think it's going to be a very interesting decision that's upcoming here in about the next week. Let's you know what I'm gonna make a decision on the fly here. Let's save offense for Wednesday's show. We can do a little bit a little of it before our interview because we have some other stuff to get to. There's not going to be that many games in between recording this one and the next episode. So let's save offense for Monday. That's fine. Can I just read one stat? Sure. That is currently still true. Yeah.

[00:24:41] Over the last 16 games, Cal Raleigh has 10 times as many home runs as the next closest Mariner does and five times as many are sorry four times as many RBIs as the next closest Mariner does. Somebody get this man some help. Please. Well, TJ, I gotta be honest. I think that's our offensive segment for the show. I know we said we were gonna shorten it. I don't know if there's anything else to say. It's a one man anchoring crew right now.

[00:25:07] If you need any more description of the Mariners offense, go look at what we tweeted out on Saturday when Cal Raleigh hit another homer. And then when we retweeted it again, when he hit another homer a second for the game later in the game, it is Squidward literally attached to a boat lying down on the ground, just like crawling and anchoring a boat behind him. That is what Cal Raleigh is doing right now for the Mariners offense because it is essentially non-existent after him.

[00:25:35] We can get to our main topic here of the show, which will include some offensive numbers past and current. But before we get to that, Lyle, let's hear a word from our friends over at Rhythm. If you're betting on baseball this season, you need to check out Rhythm's newest feature, Power Trends. It's like an advanced stat dashboard, but instead of looking at expected ERA and whiff rate, it shows AI-detected model patterns where bets have consistently won and have a high return on investment.

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[00:26:27] Try it for free for seven days and bet smarter with Rhythm. This discussion, Lyle, had popped up a little bit on Mariners Twitter over the weekend, and we had thrown in a couple of comments on Friday's podcast about some of what we thought repercussions were of a very bad offseason on what this current Mariners roster looks like. But there's another way to look at this as well, different from the way we approached it on Friday.

[00:26:56] How would you like to lead this in? I don't know if there's a perfect way to lead this in. There's so much to get to with what we dug up here over the last couple days in terms of what this topic's going to consist of. And what it mostly consists of is money allocated versus results. So if I'm just going to set this up for everybody, we have done more than our share of time on this episode

[00:27:24] talking about the money that is not being spent and refusing to be spent and choosing not to be spent, often what we feel like is against better judgment. What this is more about is the money that has been spent and what it's resulted in. And I got to tell you, it's not pretty. So that leads into discussion, Lyle. Do the Mariners, when they get money to spend, spend it wisely? The short answer is no.

[00:27:55] So then the other side of the argument, when you said on Friday, we're now seeing the results of giving no, when you give no resources for an off season and refuse to upgrade your roster. This is what you get. Well, maybe just maybe hear me out. They were thinking of avoiding. They were thinking of not spending money for it to result like this. See, I cannot buy that argument. Here's why.

[00:28:21] If you are going to choose to not spend money because you don't trust your front office to spend it, then you need a different front office. If you believe in the front office you have, you need to give them every resource that they need. Within reason, fine. If you can't spend $800 million on Juan Soto, fine. But you need to give them every resource within reason. This is more about, however, again, what the front office has spent over the last couple of years and what it's resulted in.

[00:28:48] So, yeah, I can't quite buy exactly what you just said because in most cases, in terms of winning ball clubs across the league, if they have a signing or an acquisition go badly, they turn around and do something else and try again. For example, Jose Abreu with the Astros. That was a disaster. The Astros haven't stopped spending money after that. Let me be a little bit more direct with our subject matter here. Okay.

[00:29:14] Over the last two seasons, you and I, and the results for themselves, say the Mariners have not spent their money wisely when they have used money to acquire pieces outside of their organization. We're not talking about extensions with players on your own team. We're not talking about prospects. We're talking about people added off the roster starting the offseason of 23 to 24 and then throughout the last two seasons. Yeah. That is what we're talking about.

[00:29:42] The 2024 season and the 2025 season, the Mariners have not done a very good job when they've had money to spend on spending it on useful players that bring value to your team. And that is another reason why the Mariners roster is the way it is right now, because they have, they have essentially gone out and gotten the wrong players over and over again. Correct. And that's why here this offense in 2025 over the last five to six weeks has been really bad.

[00:30:11] How we talked about at the start of this angel series that they were bottom five and on base, bottom five to six and average, bottom five to six and Woba, bottom 10 and OPS. You take out Cal Raleigh. They were 28th and homers entering that weekend. Not good since May 1st. Yeah, not good. And we've talked about it is two different lineups right now. It's the first four in the lineup, give or take, and everybody else. And a lot of that result of everybody else is a result of how certain resources were allocated.

[00:30:41] It's absolutely right. We'll, we'll break down the two different seasons as a whole, but right now, in terms of the roster that's out on the field today. Yeah, there's a result of that. Here's example 1A, just, just, just one player for the example of, of spending money wisely. The Mariners on May 7th. Yeah, it was May 7th. Middle, first week of May.

[00:31:06] Put a waiver claim on Laoti Tavares and picked up essentially $4 million for the remainder of this 2025 season. Hoping he could help solve their Victor Robles issue because Robles had been hurt and was going to miss most of the year. Since they acquired Laoti Tavares, Laoti Tavares has been the second worst position player in all of baseball. They spent $4 million for the second worst player in baseball.

[00:31:34] And that was after an off season where they spent $3.5 million on another one of the 10 worst players in Major League Baseball. See how it kind of adds up a little quick? And by 10 worst players that they spent for in the off season, you mean Donovan Solano. That is correct. Adds up fast, man. Again. And that's just two small contracts. Right. Let me, let me, do you want the total number? For 2025 or for the two seasons as a whole? The two seasons combined.

[00:32:02] And then we can go down and break it, break it down a little bit. Yeah. Explain what we're talking about. I would tell people to brace themselves for this. So this is every player outside the Mariners organization that they've either acquired and taken on salary through a trade or they've signed in free agency. The last two seasons. And I totaled it all up combined. And then calculated the war those players have generated as Mariners in this time frame as well. The total.

[00:32:31] The Mariners have spent $108.45 million for .6 Fangraphs wins above replacement. That is $54 million a year for a third of a win above replacement for players outside their organization and spending money. $54 million is a lot of money. Do you know how many position players in Major League Baseball make $54 million? Sorry. Players in general.

[00:33:01] Zero. You've essentially taken a chunk of cash that could buy you any player anywhere and used it to generate a third of a win above replacement. It's not that easy because these aren't all free agents. Some of these are trades to swap salaries to players you already had on your roster. But let's play with this number to start. $54 million for a third of a win above replacement per season the last two years.

[00:33:30] I mean if you just want to use the brain dead don't factor in all the scenarios type argument here Tiege. You can just do this. So you're telling me instead of the team having Mitch Hanager, Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Ryan Stanek, Rosarena, Turner. I know those guys were good but still they have to factor into this. Those two along with Solano and Leody Tavares. Like all those guys combined over the last two years.

[00:33:57] Because you're telling me you could just take them aside and have Shohei? Yes, Lyle. Problem solved. So, man, wouldn't that be nice. Okay, we can't quite do that. But there are some ways to break this down. And if you want to do it for 2025, what we looked at in terms of where money was spent and where it could have been allocated elsewhere is this.

[00:34:24] If the Mariners had chose in this hypothetical scenario to not bring back Jorge Polanco, to not sign Donovan Solano, to not claim Leody Tavares and his $4 million off waivers, and to not give Rowdy Tellez about $1.5 million, you're telling me you could take all that money and have signed Paul Goldschmidt, who signed on a one-year $12 million deal with the Yankees and is currently hitting with a...

[00:34:53] and currently has an 836 OPS and a 136 WRC+. Is that what you're telling me? So the total is about $15 million you get with that? Goldschmidt costed $12.5 million. Yeah. It's not great. And first base, by the way, it's a pretty big need. And it will probably, if there's a first baseman available at the deadline, attempted to be addressed. Yeah. So you can't quite... That is, you know, that's one example how this stuff adds up.

[00:35:23] And you don't even... We didn't even factor in here, Lyle. Well, the two guys who are taking up the biggest chunk of outside cash this season in Mitch Garver and Mitch Hanegar, who have combined this season, the two of them, for negative 0.2 F4. It's $27.5 million they're paying those guys this year. Yep. Yep. I mean, do you want to do one more example about coulda, woulda, shoulda? Sure.

[00:35:54] So this goes back to 2024 a little bit now because we just used the Paul Goldschmidt example. But let's say Paul Goldschmidt had been signed. And he had been... And he was signed this offseason and he was going to be the first baseman. Let's fast forward a winner ago. You signed Garver for $12 million. Polanco can't factor into this because one way or another that money was going to be on the books, whether it was Robbie Ray, Anthony Descalfani, or Polanco.

[00:36:24] Some way or another that money was going to be on the books. But you spent $12 million on Garver last year. You spent $2.5 million on Ryan Stanek. That's about $14.5 million. Matt Chapman, last winner, signed a one-year deal for $18 million with the Giants with two player options after that. I remember specifically the Mariners were linked to Chapman a decent amount throughout the winter, especially when times got later on.

[00:36:51] Chapman was still unsigned and was looking for some type of multi-year commitment. I remember Divish talking about he thought if the Mariners could go three or four years with that, he may turn his head and sign. They didn't do that. Chapman signs for $18 million for one year to go to the Giants. But if you instead take that $12 million from Garver, $2.5 million from Stanek, and look to Chapman and try to sign him, I'm going to guess they had an extra $3.5 million somewhere

[00:37:21] lying around to make that deal happen if they had wanted to. They did because they acquired $6 million in salary at the deadline. Right. Now, maybe you say this team still needed a Rosarena. They still needed Justin Turner, which is fine. And that's why I'm leaving those guys out of this. But I'm just saying if you have the $14.5 million available to you that you hypothetically wouldn't have signed to bring in Garver and to bring in Stanek, and you could have found a way to up it to $18 to $20 to go get Chapman, which I'm guessing was in the budget some way

[00:37:51] or another. It's not that much extra money. Yeah. I think they could have used Matt Chapman. And then you fast forward to right now. And instead of sitting here talking about the gaping holes they have at first base and third base, we're sitting here saying they have Paul Goldschmidt at first and Matt Chapman at third. Now, everything doesn't work out perfectly. Maybe they would have chose the wrong guy. Maybe they would have signed somebody else, etc.

[00:38:16] But what TJ and I are getting to here is, look, we are not going to shy away from the fact the Mariners should spend more money. They should. When things do not go right in terms of an acquisition, you don't just sit on your hands. You've got to turn and pivot and find the next solution. And sometimes that does come from outside the organization. However, what we're saying here is the money that's been available to them and they have allocated.

[00:38:42] Man, I wish it had been reallocated in some other places using a little bit of hindsight. And with your Chapman hypothetical, if they had offered him three years, you're not paying him $18 million for three years. You'd pay him 15. You maybe even get him at 14 and you wouldn't have to find that three and a half million dollars. It could work out because Chapman's getting a bigger total paycheck than he's getting from the Giants. And hey, by the way, when Chapman signs with the Giants, he's like, man, your guys' state income taxes are going to take a huge chunk out. Can we raise the number a little bit?

[00:39:12] Guess who doesn't have income tax? Hello. Yeah. So like there's a, there's a lot of ways to go about this. So yeah, the Mariners have not spent their money wisely when they have the money to spend, which is again, unfortunate, but that is if you're looking for, Hey, how are we going to divvy up? How we're going to talk about why this roster is where it is. Sure. You can go up top to the ownership and say, yeah, you guys, we're not getting enough,

[00:39:39] given enough money to spend, but also you can say, yeah, when, when you were given money to spend, you don't do anything with it. And in fact drags this team down. Let me read you. I'm just going to read off all of the names of the guys. They have, they have, they have gotten, I'm not going to do, I'm just names. Yeah. Well, the last two years quickly before you do that, just so people know the reason I bring up Matt Chapman, he had a five and a half win season last year. Right now he's got a one 30 WRC plus is on pace for a six win season. That's why we bring him up.

[00:40:06] The last two seasons, the Mariners have brought in from outside their organization, Mitch Hanegar, Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Ryan Stanek, Randy Rosarena, Justin Turner, Donovan Solano, Leody Tavares. Um, and that's all of them. How many of those players have you said and made the team better? Two. And it would be the two they got at the deadline last year, Randy and Justin Turner and one month of Jorge Polanco. Yeah.

[00:40:37] So when you have that many players that you're spending money on and they're not contributing to your team and making you better. Yeah. It's going to be really hard when you fill up all these spots of players who really just aren't producing at this level. Then you can get to like the argument of here, Lyle, where it's like, okay, well, Mitch Hanegar's money was going to be on the books no matter what, because of Robbie Ray's contract. And then you get into the whole, oh, okay. So would you have rather had Robbie Ray on the roster and just let him rehab?

[00:41:05] Would you have, um, would you, should you have given Robbie Ray that contract in the first place? I mean, you can snowball. I still think they should have, but I mean, you can snowball this in a lot of ways based on the decisions you have made to get this money on, onto the books in cents and not help this team out at all. And it's disappointing because if that money was better, better allocated, Cal could have a whole lot more help right now. And there couldn't be all this pressure on the top four guys in this lineup.

[00:41:32] And then just a gaping massive hole after them. I don't know how many Mariners fans have done this this year. And if I'm going to bring up wounds, I'm sorry, but I'm going to do it here. Has anybody checked Robbie Ray's numbers this year for you listening? I know, I know you have, I know I have, but for anybody listening, has anybody checked Robbie Ray's numbers this year? If you haven't, let me just fill the people in. Robbie Ray's made 13 starts this year. He is a 244 ERA.

[00:42:03] He is a 303 fit. His whip sits at 107. He's punching out 10 batters per nine and his ERA plus is 156. He has been 56% above league average as a pitcher this year. It's pretty good. Yeah. Yeah. Worth $24 million. That's absolutely worth $24 million.

[00:42:28] Like I know, I know people disagreed with us to some extent when we posted our clip from a week or so ago talking about some of the worst contracts given out. And what it turns out is us versus other people were basically just arguing semantics because we put Robbie Ray on that list and people said, well, how are you going to do that? That wasn't a bad contract. It was never about Robbie Ray. We never had a problem with the Mariners giving that contract to Robbie Ray. What we factored in is everything that happened after that and what resulted on the roster.

[00:42:58] And that's why the contract factors in as it does. Because Robbie Ray turned into having to take on Mitch Hanegar's money and now having him pitch for another team and thriving. And have Anthony Desclefani's $8 million of dead money just sitting there on the books last year. Well, it was flipped for Jorge Polanco. Yeah. Well, dead money for somebody. It was still used to offset. Right. Yeah, man.

[00:43:27] Tough sledding to say the least. Let's contextualize it like this in most basic of terms because we've broken down a bunch of the different players. We've broken down a bunch of the different scenarios and where they could have allocated the money. Let's just do this. One war is worth about $8 million, they say, right? They say roughly one war is worth about $8 million. The $108.5 million the Mariners have spent on all these guys the last two years essentially

[00:43:56] should have produced them about 13.5 wins above replacement. If all these guys combined had put that up, that would be getting a bang for your buck with the money you spent. 13.5 wins. This group in two years has put up .6 wins above replacement. As TJ put it, $54 million a year have been allocated the last two seasons to .3 wins above replacement. And just think of how much weight the developmental side of this organization and the homegrown

[00:44:26] players are carrying on the fact that outside the org players are doing the exact opposite. They are able to offset so much of what has been a clear weakness of this regime, which is bringing in talent from the outside to perform and make this roster that much better and to ultimately win a World Series, which is the whole point of this thing, right? Yeah, the draft-developed trade is the strength of this organization because it really is the only thing

[00:44:54] that has generated you what you've wanted out of big league baseball players because the other stuff is not. There's already been Cole Young discourse, which is ridiculous to say in its own right, that seven to eight games in, people are already having Cole Young discourse about, oh, he looks overmatched and he's striking out. Really not liking those swings I'm seeing from Cole Young. Like, guys, can we please, please take a deep breath?

[00:45:21] This is exactly what we told people not to do when he gets called up. Cole Young, like any prospect, is going to take a little bit of time to get his feet under him at the big league level. It's normal. It's fine. But to your point, TJ, about needing guys from outside the organization to come in and do what they're supposed to do, if they were doing that, people wouldn't have to harp so much on Cole Young, and they shouldn't. Because like we said at the start, Cole Young's not going to save this offense.

[00:45:48] He can help. He can play a role. There's no doubt about that. It is not fair and not realistic to ask him to save it. And instead of channeling that energy toward Cole Young, like, it's more about the guys that are being paid the real dollars and have the expectations to produce that aren't producing. And those guys are making some real dollars. That's what it's more about. You shouldn't be putting it on Cole Young, especially not seven games in.

[00:46:19] It is a number of... There are a number of issues with how the Mariners are where they currently are right now and places that you can place blame. No one really is escaping it right now. Simply put, Mariners do need to play better. So this conversation turns around, and maybe some of these guys we listed off can play better down the stretch and really help this team out and don't have to be part of this discussion.

[00:46:47] Randy Rosarena, by the way, I hated I had to put him on here. But since he's actually been very productive since the Mariners got him, but since he qualifies, you have to put it on it. Without Randy Rosarena, this list would be producing negative war. That... You'd pay almost $100 million to lose your team games. Think about that. That's not a mark of a successful process...

[00:47:14] Successful, if I can pronounce correctly, process at all. It's not. That's terrible. Like... And think about this. This was also brought up this weekend, Lyle. Who have been the two big-name free agents that the Mariners have been closest linked to but didn't sign? Do you mean Santana? No, bigger. Bigger. Chapman? Nope, bigger. Oh, I did see somebody bring this up. You mean Chris Bryant and Trevor Story.

[00:47:41] Who have been two of the worst contracts possible given out in the last decade of free agency. Our buddy Scotty Gange, who's on 9 News in Denver, the NBC affiliate. Last year, he had a clip go viral because he called Chris Bryant one of the biggest bank robbers of this generation. That one still gets me. Because he was making like 20 million bucks to play in 50 games or something.

[00:48:08] What would this discourse be if they'd signed Trevor Story? Which, by the way, we're never going to have full proof of this because it was discourse between the two of us and some of our friends before we ever started this podcast. I was never, ever, ever in on that idea. Because you knew the Coors Field effect was real with him. You saw it the last couple seasons before he hit free agency. There was a lot of people out on Mariners Twitter that really wanted him. I wanted no part of that. Mariners offered him the same deal the Red Sox did.

[00:48:37] From everything we understand and have heard, yeah. Exactly. And I don't know if they got to the same level as Chris Bryant, but I do believe they were in on Chris Bryant too. The Rockies just offered way more money. And that looks like a terrible investment. So think of that. The Mariners, for the guys they've already gotten on their roster, have spent their money poorly. The two biggest name free agents, publicly, that we know of. There could be more that were actually good that they were in on and didn't get.

[00:49:05] Carlos Santana this year, for example, has been very good. He'd be a good Mariner if he was on the team this year. But the two biggest name guys they've been linked to have been two of the biggest free agent disasters in the last 10 years. There's talks this week about Trevor Story getting cut. To be fair to the Mariners, from everything else we understand about that offseason, I think the guy they really wanted was Marcus Semien. But from everything we understand, Scott Boris wouldn't even let the Mariners and Semien have a conversation.

[00:49:33] He manipulated that whole market around all of his guys and said, yeah, you're not talking to him. It's like, can we show him our offer? No. From everything we understand, Scott Boris had no intention of letting Marcus Semien have any type of discussions or conversations with the Mariners. And if Scott Boris' clients never signed with the Mariners in free agency to this day, from everything we understand, too, Scott Boris does not like the Mariners. Does not like them. I think we've talked about this on the podcast before. I think there's bad blood there.

[00:50:02] So that plays a factor into it, too. Yes, after that, the Mariners pivoted in that offseason, we presume, toward Bryant and Story. But yeah, couldn't get Semien. And they didn't get either of those other two either.

[00:50:14] Point being, what this all comes back to as we wrap this conversation up is, look, the majority of the blame and the majority of the, I think, criticism is not going to change in terms of where the frustration is going to go for the lack of winning. It is the people who make the decisions at the very top of this organization. And this doesn't change that the budget that was set this winter was absolutely brutal. This doesn't change that at all.

[00:50:45] But there is also now a very real conversation to be had, again, about the money they have used and where it's been allocated. That's all we're saying. I'm not saying pecking order of blame has been changed. But what TJ is saying is nobody's really free of it. When you get money to spend, you do have to spend it well. You can't just waste it. Yep, for sure. And then you get stuck in a situation like the Mariners are in with their current roster. If they had this money freed up, they could go acquire good players like Pete Alonso.

[00:51:14] Or, for example, the Trevor Story contract with the Red Sox, Lyle. Like, they signed Bregman. Like, they did change their course for Bregman. But for a couple of years there, they were not content at all on spending any money because they'd spend it on Trevor Story and he was awful. Yeah, and how did Red Sox Nation react to that? They hated it. If you've read any Red Sox discourse over the last few years, despite this being a team that won four titles in 15 years, they had a couple of mediocre to underwhelming seasons in the early to mid-2020s.

[00:51:43] And people were furious. Yes. But just think of, we're not here to explain why the Red Sox should or shouldn't spend money, but their reasoning was, yeah, we spent it on Trevor Story. Right. So we're not going to go spend out on anybody else. That's not a mistake. The Mariners, where they significantly have a smaller budget, can afford to go do. No. So you need to, when you do spend the money, you need to spend it correctly. And they have not spent it correctly at all.

[00:52:10] It's in fact been nearly a net negative on their team. So they spent it on Robbie Ray. They spent it on Mitch Garver. They spent it on Jorge Polanco this winter. You know what that says to me? If they're going to take the Red Sox route for a couple of years, they stood pat, didn't do much. And then this winter, they're going to sign Kyle Tucker. Kyle Tucker. All right. And that, I think, is a perfect way to end the pod. Genuinely. Genuinely. But that was a very fascinating conversation. I am interested to hear what everybody's thoughts on this are.

[00:52:40] You should absolutely drop some comments and let us know what your thoughts on this are. You can DM us and let us know what your thoughts on this are. It's a very, very fascinating conversation with a lot of levels to it. So, yeah, let us know. This may not be the last time we talk about it either. It may come up in future podcasts too. But we were looking through it. We decided it was long overdue that we talked about it. And we hope the breakdown was interesting to people and gives people some things to think on and some opinions to formulate. So, yeah. Hope you enjoyed it. All right. I think that wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer Podcast.

[00:53:09] You guys know the drill. If you want to find all of our stuff, you can go to one spot. It's marinelayarpod.com. You'll find everything over there, you guys. All of our merch, which go get yourself some with summer right here. I mean, it's basically already here. By the way, Lyle, let's make sure to look at something that could potentially be in the store soon. Yeah. If you're watching on YouTube. Check it out on YouTube. If you're signing to go check it out on YouTube. Look at TJ's hat. Soon? There may be something in store soon. That may not be the only version of certain hat in store soon.

[00:53:39] Not just color, but design, brand, et cetera. There may be more coming. So, anyway, if you need summer apparel, whether it's t-shirts, potentially hats, et cetera, that's where you should go, marinelayarpod.com. You can find it all there. You can find all our episodes there. You can sign up for our Patreon there. We would love to have you get involved with us and get further involved with the podcast because it's been a blast so far. You can find our live show schedule there. Everything. Again, audio, video episodes, everything you need over at marinelayarpod.com.

[00:54:06] And then you can find us all across social media, Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, YouTube shorts, at marinelayarpod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.

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