Episode 259: Rob Friedman (Pitching Ninja) + What Are We Looking For In The Promotions Of Lazaro Montes, Michael Arroyo, & Brandyn Garcia?

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[00:00:28] Welcome to episode number 259 of the Marine Layer Podcast. We welcome on the pitching ninja himself, recurring guest Rob Friedman to talk about some standout Mariners pitchers, who he thinks will represent the Mariners at the All-Star Game in Atlanta, and much, much more. We'll discuss the Mariners game one win in Minnesota, a couple of prospect promotions within the organization, highlighting Brandon Garcia, Lazaro Montes, and Michael Arroyo, and we have our number eight MLB Draft Spotlight.

[00:00:57] Make sure to stay on top of all of our stuff, you guys. If you want to do that, there's one spot to do it all. That's our website. It's MarinLayerPod.com, where you can check out our merch. Hats are up on the website officially, you guys. We can get into that a little bit more in a bit if you want, but hats are officially up. Get your hats in time for summer. Get your t-shirts if you're interested in hoodies and long sleeves, all up on the site. That's MarinLayerPod.com. We love seeing the merch around the park. We'd love to see you get some of your own, so that's over there.

[00:01:25] You can also see our live show schedule, which includes our next live show this Saturday. That's this Saturday, 12 p.m. at the Hall on Occidental. Again, that's on Occidental Avenue. It's right by the ballpark. It's on the north end of Lumen Field. We can't wait. There's going to be some awesome food specials and drink specials at this event. It's going to start at 12 p.m. for the live show, and then a watch party for Mariners Rangers at 1 p.m. So again, 12 o'clock, Occidental Hall or the Hall on Occidental in Seattle on Occidental Avenue. We would love to see you there.

[00:01:54] Again, that information is all over our website as well. So those two things, all our episodes, our Patreon, etc., it's all over at MarinLayerPod.com. And you can find us all across social media at MarinLayerPod. Let's get it rolling.

[00:02:22] And we welcome you to this episode of the MarinLayer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network. We're recording on Tuesday afternoon, June 24th. We spend time, so much time, trying to think of different subjects, things that people will be interested in, trying to find new ways to talk about the Mariners. And we always end up at the same exact place. We always end up talking about Cal Raleigh every single time.

[00:02:51] It did help, though, and I'm going to give you a shout-out on this one, Lyle. We talked about the MVP race on Monday's episode and the competition between Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge and that Major League Baseball should give Cal the same Goldilocks balls they gave Aaron Judge in 2022. Did extremely well. So I'll hat tip to you there, dog. Good job. Good job. 300,000 views on that clip. And it's been up barely 24 hours at the time of recording this.

[00:03:20] You know what? They say I'm a social media savant. I told you that was going to work. Well, it's safe to say it found its way to New York because there were some people who didn't take too kindly to us just mentioning the fact that Aaron Judge got different baseballs than everyone else while he was chasing the home run title. Oh, I'm sorry. It exists. It's a real thing. Oh, I'm sorry.

[00:03:45] Yankees fans don't like the narrative out there that the Yankees actually do indeed get special treatment from the league. Ha! Who would have thought? And some other people were also mentioning that Albert Pujols got the same baseballs when he was chasing 700. I think. Hmm. That was less reported, though. Okay. Well... To be honest, would it shock you? No. And Major League Baseball should start giving Cal Riley the Goldilocks balls and let him break the record. They should do this every time.

[00:04:15] It's, you know, it's like the steroid chase, the home run chase in the steroid era where Major League Baseball knew these guys were juicing and looked the other way. Why? Because it immensely benefited them. Major League Baseball has full unilateral control over the baseballs that are in these games. They mentioned it. If they want to change the baseball, they can. And apparently sometimes they do it in season. And it works out.

[00:04:38] I don't see who loses out if you give Cal Riley a baseball that travels further in the second half of the season while he chases 62 home runs. Or maybe more. Maybe he's aiming for Mark McGuire or Sammy Sosa now. I don't know if he'll get to 70. But 65? 65? Again, like we said for Monday's pod, he gets to 40 home runs at the All-Star break. We're having a real combo. So he right now needs seven home runs because he... You'll be shocked.

[00:05:08] Homered on Monday. He's probably going to homer again before this podcast comes out, which could potentially put him six home runs away from Barry Bonds' 2001 record of 39 home runs before the All-Star break. Yeah, that'd be crazy. That'd be ridiculous. Yeah, he's now ahead of junior, by the way. I was also looking at this today. Like, he is on pace for the best offensive season a Mariner has ever had right now. Yep. Sorry, A-Rod, 2000.

[00:05:36] Sorry, Griffey and the multiple MVPs he won. Cal Raleigh will pass all of those seasons at this current pace. He'll have more home runs. He'll have more wins above replacement. He'll be playing a more difficult position than those two played, even though those two played premium defensive positions at the time they got those awards. Cal Raleigh, if you go to baseball reference and you say top 50 Mariners seasons of all time, they'll list out by war, by batting average, by home runs, by RBIs.

[00:06:02] Cal Raleigh very well could be at the top of all of those lists at the end of this year. Let me try to find a couple other storylines to talk about, because as fun as Cal is, I feel like we can't just spend every podcast for the rest of the season talking about Cal Raleigh and nothing else. But he doesn't let us, because he always... Last night highlighted the best, right? The Mariners had this awesome win. The bats come out again.

[00:06:27] By the way, they have essentially, I think, vaulted back into the top third of baseball and runs scored this month in just the last four days. So I looked at this. For the month of June, before the road trip started, they were still 18th in the league by OPS in offense for the month of June. So for the month of June, they were 18th in the league in team OPS. Now they're third for the month. This is what we mean by volatile.

[00:06:55] And by Mickey Mouse conditions in Chicago. Absolutely. But I was thinking about it in terms of last night's game. The Mariners played a complete game. Brian Wu dealt. He looked awesome. He looked like an all-star self. Rob Friedman, the pitching ninja, said just as much in our interview that's coming up here in a little bit. The offense looked great. Dom Canzone continues to crush the ball up at the big league level.

[00:07:19] Looking like a piece that could really help this team as they get towards the deadline and could change the Mariners evaluation of their roster. You had Julio finally hitting a home run for the first time in over a month on a pitch that was low to the ground. It was a really good swing. It was not off balance. All the things people have been complaining about with Julio. He crushes that home run. And maybe things are going to change for Julio. Maybe that hot streak is changing. It's going to come along. And he's going to hit for some more power now. And the rest of the offense looked really good.

[00:07:48] And then Cal Raleigh comes up in the top of the ninth inning and crushes the home run. And as you tweeted out, at the buzzer, number 32, steals all the headlines right back. No, he stole all the headlines. Despite it being in garbage time. Yeah. He stole all the headlines right back. This is what happens when you have a historic first half of a season. A couple of the things you touched on there. I'm going to pump the brakes on. I'm going to be real. I'm not doing this with Julio.

[00:08:17] Like, I'm not watching him hit one home run for the first time in a month and say, oh, maybe people do this. Like, I hear people do it all the time. I didn't say he was back. I said it could be the start of a hot streak. And that's what everybody says. Again, could be the start of a hot streak. This could be something. He hit one homer. When he does this for two weeks, I'll start to have the conversation. And I'm fully in agreement with you. But one home run is better than zero. Correct. But look, at some point in time, we're not avoiding it.

[00:08:46] We're just, again, there's other things on the docket to talk about that take precedent. At some point, we're going to dive into Julio again because he is, well, he's just, I mean, he's like Hembo said a couple weeks ago. He's beating too many fastballs into the ground, and it's what's caused another sluggish first half of an offensive season for him. He is a, he's an inconsistent offensive player. Right. That's what he is. Right. And we can dig into that more at a later time.

[00:09:14] But yeah, that's why one home run, I'm going to pump the brakes on it a little bit. But I also like, I'd like to see a little bit more from Dom. Don't get me wrong. What he's done so far since being called up, total shot in the arm for the team. It's been great. I just, I would like a little more sample size to see if this is going to be a flash in the pan or if this is going to be somewhat real. I love the word could, Lyle. I love the word could. I know.

[00:09:41] Because it's like, if you get to July in Dom Kinzone, he's probably not going to be hitting this well. But if he's going to be a productive offensive player on July 24th, it gives you a little bit more confidence. Like, think about how this shovels out your roster. And by the way, I was thinking we talk about some trades on Friday. I was thinking before the mailbag on Friday. There are a lot of trade targets out there.

[00:10:06] Jeff Passon of ESPN put out an article today on Tuesday that had some pretty big names on his trade list that I think would be interesting to talk about on whether or not the Mariners, who have been among the most aggressive teams when it comes to trading for players, potentially could swing at the deadline. So I think that'll be a good topic for Friday. But, like, say Dom continues to hit in right field as a left-handed hitter. Well, then you don't need to put Luke Raley and force Luke Raley out into right field.

[00:10:34] They would instead then feel much more comfortable about putting him at first base more because they have a right fielder who's going to produce more offensively. And then how does that change how they're going to approach the deadline? And I'm not even saying that's the right move to do because then you still have two months to play after the trade deadline. I'm just thinking about it from I know how the Mariners think. And when they watch those players play and produce at the positions that they put them at, then it changes their priority list for how they're going to go out and they're going to shop at the deadline.

[00:11:05] So if you're coming at that as how are the Mariners thinking up in that front office, sure, I can buy into that. If you're asking what the two of us sitting here on this podcast would do, even if Dom is still hitting by the all-star break, even if Canzone, again, is still hitting by the time the trade deadline rolls around, that I feel like is, I don't want to say malpractice, but not the world's greatest strategy.

[00:11:31] If you were going to go into that deadline and say, we're not going to address first base, we're not going to address right field, and we're just going to let them run with it. No, like let them be pieces. But if there is proven star talent out there, go get it. So not the right way to approach it. That's what I'm saying. That's why I said not the smartest way to approach it. But even though, as Jeff Passan released his article with 50 names on it, not all 50 of those names are going to be available.

[00:11:58] In fact, I would guess that most of those names are not available, and most teams are not going to want to trade players at the deadline. That everyone thinks they're in it right now. We looked at the standings last week. How many teams are out of it right now? Not a lot. Right. That's why you sit there and be like, if we're going to go trade for somebody and there's only so many players moved and we're going to have to overpay for somebody, I think it is better if the players on our roster in positions of need are performing.

[00:12:26] So we then can go focus our resources on areas where the guys are not performing and we absolutely have to trade for. Like bullpen. Sure. Sure, and I get that. And that's a fair argument. I would just be more interested to have this conversation even at the All-Star break.

[00:12:45] If Dom Canzone is still hitting by the time we get to All-Star week, yeah, I'd be interested to have that conversation because then that feels like enough of a span and enough of a sample where you have some idea of what he can be. So, yes, I would just like to see a little bit more. Not that what Canzone's done so far hasn't been a good thing. It has. He's given this team a total shot in the arm, like I said. I just want to see a little more. Funny enough, the storyline I was even going to touch on that we didn't get to, that you didn't get to, that I haven't brought up yet, was having Luke Raley back.

[00:13:14] He didn't take long to make his presence fell. He crushed that three-run homer. It has been nice to have that kind of thunder in the lineup. Because the way the Mariners have scored runs this year is they've mashed home runs. And Luke Raley's come back and he's mashed home runs and he's hit the crap out of the ball, which is what they need. And now you look at the lineup, third in the month of June in OPS, and you look one through nine and you're like, all right, there are spots you could make an argument are weak.

[00:13:43] But how many spots do you look at the lineup and say, all right, below average right now with a healthy Luke Raley? Sure. I mean, if you go around the diamond and say you're going to have a day where Solano's DH-ing and you put Raley at first, let's go that route. So if you have Cal catching, Solano DH-ing, you have Raley at first, you have Cole Young at second, JP at short, Williamson at third, and then left to right in the outfield, you go Randy, Julio, and we'll call it Canzone for as long as he's hitting.

[00:14:09] Yeah, I mean, it's better than what it was a couple weeks ago, that's for sure. The below average spots offensively are third base, which again, Ben has swung it better lately, and so is Cole. At second base, you would say it's the other below average offensive position based on how they've hit for the season, but besides that, you have above average at every position, which is what you want in a lineup, and you get a little bit more consistency, and there's not this dead pocket in the lineup.

[00:14:38] Where people's biggest complaints, especially in the month of May, is that you get to the bottom of the Mariners lineup and there is no juice. There's no on base, there's not a lot of slug outside of a little bit from Rowdy Tellez at that point. It just doesn't offer a lot. Right. But now in June, it's offering a little bit more. That's great. I hope it keeps up. I mean, just think about the swaps.

[00:15:00] You're adding Luke Raley, and then you essentially swap Solano for Tellez, and you swap Laody Tavares, who was the worst player in baseball while he was here in Seattle. That's a fact by the numbers. And then you put Dom Canzone, who's hit, when he's come back up. Yeah. Pretty big impact. Very big. Again, I just hope it keeps up. I hope it's real. Well, that's my big thing. We'll see. And it's important for him to do that because he's got a few cups of tea in the Mariners. And if Dom's going to provide value, he has to hit.

[00:15:30] It's not going to be defense. Even though they're playing him in center in Tacoma, which I think is funny. He's not really a center fielder. And the Mariners won't need him to play center field at the big league level, as long as Julio's healthy. I'm Charissa. And my advice to all entrepreneurs start with Shopify.

[00:16:10] To our somewhat main subject besides Rob today, there are some promotions within the Mariners organization, Lyle. Laz, Laz, Lozaro Montez, and Michael Arroyo finally promoted to AA. Let's start with Laz. Why did he earn this promotion? And what do you want to see from him at AA? Well, he earned the promotion because the guy's torn the cover off the ball in Everett. And it's amazing what he has done at every level of the minor leagues.

[00:16:35] Just in terms of, look, he is a polarizing prospect for a lot of reasons. But when you just look at the overall results he's had as a hitter, every stop he's made, way above league average. And he was doing the same thing this year in Everett. So I think between the time he spent with the Aqua Sox last year, the amount of time he's accumulated in high A again this year, they had seen enough to give the guy the promotion and put him up in Everett. I mean, the guy was leading the Northwest League in home runs. His OPS is way over 900.

[00:17:05] That's the type of thing, even at 20 years old, that earns you the call up to AA. Okay. You know what? I'll stop there because you asked why did he earn the promotion. That's why he earned the promotion. We can get into some of the pros and cons here in a minute. But that's why he earned it. Because he has been tearing the cover off the ball and was the best bat in the Northwest League. The power is elite, and he's still four months away from being 21 years old. That's what's amazing about this whole thing. He's so young.

[00:17:32] He's struck out a bit at every spot he's been in. But even despite those strikeouts, he has managed to be wildly productive offensively. He's managed to walk still at an insane rate. So, therefore, you say, okay, if he's going to be limited defensively, whatever level he's going to be at, he's going to have to hit to provide value. And so far, through the Complex League, through the Dominican Summer League, through Modesto, and now through Everett, he is produced at an insanely high level offensively, despite that thing lingering.

[00:18:02] But the strikeouts might continue to linger going up to AA. And strikeouts might always be part of Laz's game if you want to sort of shift what we're looking for Laz to do at AA. First of all, the power to stay up, to produce offensively at some point, and to see where the strikeout rate ends up. Because his strikeout rate in high A this year is 27.5%, which is pretty high, especially in high A.

[00:18:32] You're going to guess when he goes to Arkansas, at least to start, that strikeout rate starts at roughly, what I say, 30% to move up a level? Is that fair? Yeah. That's pretty high for a hitter at AA. Luckily for the Mariners, because he's four months away from turning 21, you can just, right now, you can set a clock for one year for Laz in AA. And then check back on him. And he'll be a young 21 years old at that point. Mm-hmm.

[00:19:01] And then you think, all right, now what do we do? Do we promote him to Tacoma? Is he ready for the big leagues at this point? And he'd be one of the youngest players in AA still. He'd be one of the youngest players in AAA. And he'd be one of the youngest players in the big leagues one year from now. So you let him worry about his swing and miss issues in AA, which he'll almost certainly have. See how the power keeps up when he's there in Arkansas. And then go from there.

[00:19:27] I think we are about to learn in the next calendar year who Lazaro Montez really is. And I tweeted that from our podcast account yesterday afternoon. Because I think it's true. This is the level where the men get separated from the boys. Where the guys who are really going to make it get separated from the guys who don't. AA as a jump from high A. Many already know this, but in case you don't, it is the biggest jump throughout all of minor league baseball.

[00:19:53] If you exclude AAA to the big leagues or the guys that make the jump from AA to the big leagues. That jump from high A to AA is the toughest and biggest jump in all of minor league baseball. So to see Laz make this jump at 20 years old and to see him roughly spend the next year plus in Arkansas. We are going to get a real evaluation on who this guy is. And what I mean by that is we are going to learn if Lazaro Montez is a guy who can truly hit 30 to 35 home runs in the big leagues.

[00:20:22] And be a middle of the order type bat. And drive in a lot of runs. And continue to draw walks. And be somebody that can truly slug as a big leaguer and make a difference. Or is he going to be the guy that can't keep his strikeout rate down? And as a result, it's not the perfect comp. But is he going to be a little bit like Adam Dunn? That's what we're about to learn. Can this guy be a true middle of the order bat? Or is he going to have swing and miss problems with just hamstring him? And for some context too.

[00:20:52] The reason AA strikeout rate matters is because you can use it a little bit as context for how his strikeout rate is going to look at higher levels. Most importantly at the big league level. So I wrote down four guys that the Mariners currently have on their big league. Or had at least at one point on their big league roster. Who have struck out at an above average. Meaning higher than 22-23% at the big league level. Julio's strikeout rate in AA was 18%.

[00:21:20] Jared Kelnick's strikeout rate at AA was 18.5%. Cal Raleigh is a little bit of an outlier here. Didn't have the biggest sample size in AA. He also then got a year off. Essentially because of COVID. And then came back and struck out a significantly lower rate in AAA. In 2021. But in 2019 in AA. Cal Raleigh's strikeout rate in AA was 29.6%. And then Cole Young's strikeout rate in AA last year.

[00:21:48] Cole Young's striking out about 26% of the time right now on the big league level. Even though that number will probably go down as his career goes on. Strikeout rate last year was 16%. So those are guys that were elite at not striking out in AA. If Laz is starting at 30%. That number's going to have to avoid the strikeout rate at the big league level. Which you hope he eventually gets to. That number's going to need to go down closer to those other blue chip guys.

[00:22:17] Yeah, because look at where all those other guys you just mentioned have run in terms of a big league strikeout rate when they've gotten to the show. Julio up in the high 20%. Or up in the high 20%. He'll strike out 27-28% of the time a lot of the years. This year he's brought it down a little. But still, Jared Kelnick's running over 30%. Cal Raleigh's running up close to 30%. Cole Young, it's going to come down, like you said. But even right now, 26-ish percent. And those are guys that just did not strike out in AA.

[00:22:46] Had great approaches back when they were in Arkansas. If Laz is going to run a 30% strikeout rate for a whole year in AA, that makes you worry that if you get to the show, it's going to be closer to like 36-37%. And that just isn't going to fly. Like you can't be a successful big league hitter striking out that much. And those guys all have defensive tools to make up value in other places.

[00:23:11] And Laz, based on everyone we talked to, will likely not have defensive tools to make up for it. Things can change. Like we won't say anything definitively, but that is the consensus right now. So everything relies on his bat. And everything really relies on his power and his ability to walk. A.K.A. the two ways in which the Mariners get all their offense these days. Walks and home runs. So with Laz, this is what I mean by we're about to find out who he really is.

[00:23:39] Aram gave us a really good comp for this. Aram Layton of Just Baseball, who I think we're going to have on at some point in the next couple weeks. But he used this for Laz. He said that the high-end upside of who Laz can be in his career is somebody like Kyle Schwarber. Which, great. If Laz turns into Kyle Schwarber, that would be awesome. That would be unreal if the Mariners had a guy like that. Walks all the time, hits tanks. Fine, he strikes out a bit, but you live with it. Is he going to be Kyle Schwarber?

[00:24:06] Or is he going to be somebody that just cannot translate the tools to the big leagues because the swing and miss and the strikeouts just hold him back? There's another guy that got promoted with him in Michael Arroyo that faces some different questions, but still some similar positional and offensive concerns as he goes to AA.

[00:24:27] Michael Arroyo, in his three seasons in the Mariners minor league organization, has a 128 WRC+, a 146 WRC+, and now a 150 WRC+, in high A before he gets promoted. He's got a 422 on base percentage. He's right behind Laz in home runs. He's been incredibly productive offensively, but he runs into a similar issue as Laz, that he doesn't have a defined defensive position, and that he's also going to need to hit at this rate to provide value.

[00:24:55] What do you more look for with Michael Arroyo at AA? I think it's still the ability to hit because that's what's going to carry him as a prospect, and when he gets to the big leagues, carry him and who he could be as a player. Because, look, I know Arroyo's not the biggest dude in the world in terms of height.

[00:25:12] He stands at about 5'9", 5'10", but he could either play a below average second base defensively if he really had to, or if he had to, he could play some first base too and just be a smaller first baseman. Again, Donovan Solano's 5'8", and you're running him out at first base. If Arroyo had to play first, he could play first. So I think more with Arroyo is, is he going to hit? And he is a little bit safer of a bet to hit in terms of floor than Laz. Laz has the much higher ceiling.

[00:25:41] We know that because of what he can do with the power potential. But Arroyo has, like, in terms of the boomer bust profile, it's a little bit safer because he doesn't strike out at the rate that Laz does. But, yeah, it's going to be, can he continue to hit as he makes the jump from high A to AA because it is such a big transition? And can he find somewhere to regularly stick with at least a little bit of value defensively? Even if it's just replacement level value, league average value as a defender at second base?

[00:26:11] Can he at least be that? So I think the biggest thing for Arroyo is, yes. Is he going to hit? And can a little bit of power translate to Arkansas? The power is the big one for me. He's not a big dude at all. But he is hit for a lot of power in the minor leagues. He's also a thing about where he's hit. He's hit at Modesto. Good hitter environment. He's hit in Everett, which plays in an objectively high school field. I could safely say Funko Field's a high school field.

[00:26:38] Now they're going to one of the toughest hitting environments in all of minor league baseball at Dickie Stevens Park in Arkansas. Is he going to be able to hit for the same amount of power in AA? And if he's not, is that going to affect his on-base skills? Because pitchers have to be a little bit more careful when he's hitting for power about where they throw him. But if he's not going to hit for as much power, are pitchers just going to start throwing him more strikes? And therefore, all of a sudden, that on-base skills goes down as well.

[00:27:06] So I think that's what I see with him. But as you said, he'll probably still have some doubles power. He'll hit for a decent average. He'll get on base at least an above average rate. But will it be at an elite rate like he's been doing it at high A if he doesn't have the same power profile? Again, people, if we haven't drilled it into your brains by now, I'm going to try and do it again. This is why you look at WRC+, at weighted runs created plus.

[00:27:33] Go to Michael Arroyo's Fangraphs page as he makes his way through AA. And when you want to check in on his numbers, look at the WRC+. Because, yeah, could Michael Arroyo finish the year in AA with four to five home runs to his name? It's possible. Because that's a really big ballpark that does not favor right-handers and does not favor hitters in general. So is there a world he's not leaving the yard all the time? Sure.

[00:27:57] But if he's hitting a bunch of doubles and walking and ends with a 120 or something WRC+, in AA for 2025, that should show to everybody that Michael Arroyo's a really good hitter who's got a chance to stick. So look at that. Last promotion we got to get to before we talk about Billy Carlson, our number eight MLB draft spotlight. And then get to our awesome conversation with the pitching ninja Rob Friedman. Our guy BG's in AAA. And here's what this signals to me.

[00:28:26] I think they saw enough, and I think he is now next in line. Or, sorry, he's second in line in Tacoma now, I think, to come back into the big league bullpen. I think Jackson Cora is first, because he's already been in the big leagues. I think Jackson Cora's really good stuff. I think BG's second now. Brandon Garcia. We should probably just say the full name in case anybody didn't know. But, yes, Brandon Garcia goes from AA to AAA. Our guy BG is one call away from the show.

[00:28:53] And I think the expectation has been for a bit now that at some point this summer we will see him up in Seattle and pitching out of the Mariners bullpen. Look, he was just about the last guy off the major league spring training roster who was sent back to minor league camp and reassigned to minor league camp. He was essentially the last guy off that roster.

[00:29:15] Because I think the Mariners wanted to see every bit of him and how he'd fare in big league camp for how close he'd be to a big league spot out of spring training. Now, he didn't end up becoming one of the eight guys that made the bullpen out of camp, the big league bullpen. But that doesn't mean he's not going to play a role this year. And I think now with this promotion to AAA, we're seeing that he could very much do exactly that.

[00:29:42] He had a little bit of the Matt Brash thing, I would say, early on, which is totally normal in that being you move from a starter to a reliever. It's not a seamless transition, you guys. There is some real adjustment period that comes with it. If you remember, they made Matt Brash a reliever basically in the middle of 2022 when they realized the stuff as a starter just wasn't going to work in their eyes long term. So they sent him back to Tacoma to learn how to be a reliever. And it took him some time. He had some tough outings.

[00:30:10] He had some outings where things got away from him. He had some ups and some downs. But then once you gave him three or so months, he locked it in. He was ready for the second half. And the Mariners put him in that bullpen in 2022. And we all remember how vital he was in that playoff run. Well, Brandon Garcia went through a little bit of that. There were some outings where he looked really good in AA. There were some outings where it was a little bit up and down for him. But now in his last nine appearances in Arkansas, he's run out of one ERA and in nine innings has punched out 15 batters.

[00:30:38] So now you're seeing the Brandon Garcia that the Mariners envisioned as a reliever starting to really come to life. And I think this move to AAA does two things. Like TJ's point makes him second in line to get the call up. And number two, it says he may not even need that many appearances over in Tacoma. He may make just a handful. And if the Mariners deem him ready, they'll call him up. I think they're – honestly, like they probably think the older hitters will help him develop a little bit. But honestly, I think it's just to get him closer.

[00:31:07] Physically closer where they need to call him up. He's 30 miles away instead of – instead of how many thousands of miles is Arkansas away? A while. It's not close. So if they need to call him up, he can just drive up I-5 instead of needing to get on a plane for four hours across the country. Honestly. But the peripherals, like he has a 30 – even just – he had a couple rough outings in the first couple of weeks of this season in Arkansas. And then he had one rough outing since then essentially where he gave up four earned runs. Besides that, I mean he has been dominant.

[00:31:37] He's been striking out batters at a 30% clip. The walk rate's a little high, but you can manage that if you're striking out a third of the batters you're facing. Interesting. I'm excited to see this dude. He will be up in the big leagues at some point. I think this call-up to Tacoma means he's ready. I honestly think. I think he's close. I'm getting excited. And you know what? Him and Logan get to be on the same team again. So maybe people remember us talking about this with either of them or just the two of us talking about it in general.

[00:32:03] But the two of them are extremely close friends, Logan Evans and Brandon Garcia. So to see those guys on the same team again, it's cool for them. It's cool for us to see. And hopefully they're both in the big leagues together this summer because that'd be sick. Let's get to Lyle before we get to Rob Friedman. Let's get to our number eight MLB draft spotlight. Who are we highlighting today? So we've got Billy Carlson, a two-way player in his high school days.

[00:32:32] He comes out of Corona, California. Same high school as Seth Hernandez, who we may or may not get to later in these profiles. But Billy Carlson, again, right-handed hitting shortstop, 6'1", 180. He is known for his plus defense. He's on the older side, if you're going to look at sort of on the age spectrum. It's interesting how the scouts look at this. But he will be 19 shortly after the draft is over. But that's not to take away from any of his tools.

[00:33:00] If you're looking at the elite tool he has. The Mariners are picking at number three and they're going to pick Billy Carlson at number three. Why would they pick him at number three? What tool jumps out a lot from Billy Carlson? He's a borderline elite defender. He's a 70-grade fielder. He has a 65 arm. And that plays up a big reason of why he's been a two-way player in high school. He's up to 97 on the mound. He's got a curveball and a changeup. But I don't think scouts really see him as a pitcher at the next level.

[00:33:28] They see him for the value that his fielding and his bat are going to bring to an organization. Think about what being a good fielder does to your floor. If you're a plus defender at shortstop, your bat is going to get a lot more runway to develop. You're going to get a lot more flying up at multiple levels wherever you might be because you are so dang valuable up the middle. Even think of a Mariners example. Think of Brendan Ryan. Dude could not hit at all. Period. Point blank. Could not hit.

[00:33:57] but he started for years on the Mariners because he was a three-win player just because of his defense I'm not saying Billy Carlson's gonna be Brendan Ryan but the way he grades out he his glove will be providing value at a very important position whichever team drafts him uh coming up his bat here's the comp for his bat you might be familiar with Jordan Beck he made his debut for

[00:34:22] the Colorado Rockies last season he's a former first round pick out out of Tennessee Carlson's bat compares a little bit to Jordan Beck's so my question here is what makes him more intriguing to draft if you're the Mariners than say Steelhall because you've got a bank on a tool here with one of these guys you've got to try and draft an elite tool and hope some other things develop because again Billy Carlson's a dude who great defender I think he's a little more hit over

[00:34:51] power at least for now is that a guy you take it your third pick somebody who you may have to see a work in progress with with the bat I guess there's two sides to this because when you drafted Colt Emerson you didn't know exactly what his bat was going to be and it looks awesome so far but with somebody like Carlson do you go with defense and just average hit over power well the power I think is supposed to be there for Billy Carlson I think he's going to grow into it a little bit the bat speed

[00:35:20] is there and bat speed is the biggest correlator to power he's just got to consistently lift the ball and he's a teenager so of course he's got to grow into it of course he's got to develop whether he decides to go to college or decides to go pro he's going to have to grow into his power a little bit but just reading the breakdown that our friends at Just Baseball did I mean they're saying he's beginning to lift the ball a little bit more and there is robust power into the bat thanks to his

[00:35:47] bat speed he just needs to get the right combination of hitting the ball in the air and hitting it consistently on top of that there is not a lot of concern with him whiffing a ton at the plate that's a good combination right there not a lot of swing and miss and has the ability to hit the ball for a plus and a plus power profile so he is a better defender pure defender with the glove than steel hall but he doesn't have the speed that steel hall does and hall is still a good defender

[00:36:16] even if he's not a billy carlson level defender but that's not to say billy is not a plus or he's a 55 runner which is above average yeah yeah he is I guess ultimately what it comes back to here is is this the guy you want to take the swing on I'm just I'm just going to continue to hammer this home if the mariners are going to make this pick at three for full slot value and if they're going to especially go with a high schooler take the swing take the swing bank on the tools bank on somebody

[00:36:45] who can be a true difference maker billy carlson looks like he could be a really good player but when you tell me it's a jordan beck level offensive tool I don't know if I sit here and say that's who I'm jumping for joy over to draft at number three jordan beck may end up being a good hitter and jordan beck went decently high when he was drafted I just don't know if that screams number three

[00:37:09] pick to me I see it but jordan beck is a big leaguer you can at least say that sure I mean he went in the first round to be exact he went 38th so he went in the compensatory picks in the first round I would just like to see them I guess aim a little bit higher than this I think like there's going to be some other high school infielders we get to later in these profiles

[00:37:34] who I think I would be a little bit more intrigued on than carlson and this is not a knock on billy carlson it's just where you're picking and the value you have I think I think this is where I land he could be a good player but I don't know if he has a huge tool that steel hall has and I don't know if he has the skill set offensively that makes me want to just jump for joy to take him at third overall

[00:37:59] yeah that's fair so that's our number eight mob draft spotlight billy carlson will be counting these down we'll do one every episode leading up to the draft as as lyle said we're hoping to have arm on to talk dive a little bit more into the draft and who the mariners could potentially take at number three and then I would hope some options at 35 as well for how the mariners are going to shake this out and we lyle you and I are what two and a half weeks it's two and a half weeks from

[00:38:26] atlanta I can't wait yeah it's gonna be great exciting oh I can't wait all star weeks one of my favorite weeks of the year it's a blast I mean we're super busy during it but in the absolute best of ways if you're gonna be there by the way anybody listening let us know hit us up send us a dm and listen to this interview with rob by the way in atlanta a guy who lives in atlanta he has some recommendations for you at the end of the interview yeah before we get to rob there's two things I want

[00:38:50] to do number one just to talk about the live show again that is saturday this saturday june 28th at the hall on occidental in seattle right by the ballpark on occidental avenue north end of lumen field it's your first chance to check out the new spot by the way guys we've been it's sick so we'd love to have you guys see it for the first time yourself I'm sure we'll be hanging out there a bunch after games on weekends moving forward but for this saturday we're doing a 12 p.m live show with a 1 p.m watch

[00:39:20] party after and you guys know we're gonna give a bunch of stuff away and do trivia and take all your guys questions and hang out with you guys and watch the game with you guys so we'd love to have a bunch of you guys get out it'll be a blast and we'll we'll also be there on friday too not not our live event but we are taping a an episode of the top step with hyphen yeah right with ryan roland smith so that'll be fun we think that's gonna air on root sports so we may be on root sports that'd be pretty cool so gonna behave enough for it to be on root sports

[00:39:50] well we'll see how badly do I want to be on tv I guess we'll find out um I guess we will find out but yeah seriously guys saturday is our live show 12 p.m at the hall on occidental we'd love to have you there's gonna be some food and drink specials too so if you need any more incentive to get out smash burgers are great their whole menu is great and there should be some pretty cool drink specials too so we'd love to have you out of it that's number one number two let's take a minute here and tell

[00:40:17] you guys about our friends over at pagatcha's pub 85 that's over in kirkland another great spot to hang out if you guys want awesome food specials and drink specials and a spot to go watch some games with your friends we'll plan a time over there it's awesome if you want to go during happy hour you can find drinks from 2 to 6 p.m monday through friday that are three and four bucks yeah those are awesome happy hour deals you guys again two to six p.m three and four dollar drinks monday through friday and there's also pool there's darts again the food's awesome there's 20 tvs in that place

[00:40:44] it's got everything you need to plan a good time with your friends watch some games and just hang out have some fun so if you want to get in on any of that and plan a good night out or a good evening out with any of your friends or you can go during the day too whenever whenever your heart desires you can go over to pagatcha's pub 85 that's over in kirkland this is our third conversation we've had with rob on this podcast and if there's one thing i want people to pay attention to in this interview because this is something i was curious to ask rob about and i thought he gave us a very good answer

[00:41:13] on this subject everyone remembers when hembo talked about george kerbic as man did we get a lot of comments about that hembo had his opinion on throwing too many strikes so we had to ask the pitching guru himself the pitching ninja rob friedman is there such a thing as throwing too many strikes and having concern with a guy who's worried about giving up uh in the opinion of hembo giving up would rather give

[00:41:41] up a hit instead of give up a walk and rob had a very interesting insightful answer on the subject along with a lot of other things talking about some mariners he thinks are going to be in the all-star game some of the guys he's looking at why some repertoires have changed what's the most effective lots of very good insight from rob and we will see him in atlanta in a few weeks and if you're there you might see him as well yeah he's great he he's one of our favorite guests too so we've really had a run of awesome guests here in the last few weeks not that all the guests we have aren't great but

[00:42:09] especially the last few weeks we've had some of our some of our favorites to have on if if we were asked to pick favorites by people so rob's always great as you guys know when we have rob on we like to hit on all the pitchers and get his insight on basically all these guys so anybody you're probably interested in to hear about from the mariner staff we ask him about so and and he breaks it down great as always we won't keep you guys any longer let's get you to the interview with rob friedman

[00:42:39] all right we got the pitching ninja on with us rob friedman rob thanks so much for taking some time to join us recurring guest i know you're excited for all-star week this year because you don't actually have to travel at all last year we ran into you in texas last year but now you just get to roll out of your own bed and go cover the all-star game here in a few weeks so i'll lead off with this which mariners are joining you there that's a great question i've been on like today in my video i was

[00:43:05] saying brian woo's got to be an all-star right like he has to be an all-star you would think now i don't know who else is going to be joining me from the staff because the staff is comprised of all stars who haven't been all that healthy but uh knock on wood i would love to see brian woo there i i would too the problem is in june he's had a few rough starts and like if the era goes up closer to three five and even as dominant as he was as recording here on tuesday as he was on monday night voters and

[00:43:34] players might sit here and look at his three five era and be like yeah i mean he's been really good it would be good as a one or two representative of a team but unfortunately for him there's going to be some position players on his team on the all-star game as well so therefore you don't have to like bend the rules as much for him yeah i mean unless cal doesn't decide to go or doesn't get voted in and because you know he's not having a like every freaking day man i love the dude as a catcher like

[00:44:01] he automatically gets props for me because he's a great catcher but i am i'm getting tired cal of these of these home runs just chill out on my pitchers my man you're just killing everybody uh but no like i was just interestingly enough i was in as at the mlb combine and was asking everybody like what pitchers do you idolize what pitchers do you model your game after brian wu's name came up a ton more

[00:44:26] than you would think like of a guy that is not a household name other than among our households um he's really well liked by the next class of pitchers and they should be he's a great dude with great stuff but i found it interesting how many how many times his name came up so i think it would be entertaining for especially like a younger fan base too that just likes him for whatever reason his name the way he pitches whatever it is he's a very well-liked pitcher i've been a big brian wu

[00:44:55] fan since he was in the minors so to see him have all the success he's having i think has been awesome if it's up to me i am banging the drum for him to get in the all-star game i hope he has another couple really good starts because his era as we sit and record this is at about 3-1 if he brings it sub 3 by july i mean he's gonna have a serious serious case to get his name in there but let me ask you this on your topic of prospect or guys at the combine and draft prospects bringing up wu's name

[00:45:21] how unique is it to throw 70 fastballs like he does and just be as successful as he is i mean it's really it's very unique and it's a bunch of things that is planned like he knows his arm slot he knows why his pitches play up well he has all his stats the mariners do a great job of maximizing you know what a guy's strength is and i think cal this is one of his many strengths other than hitting a home

[00:45:48] run every day is uh knowing like he views the game as what he would hate to hit against so as he's watching a guy pitch he's like oh they can't hit this fastball and he loves calling fastballs so it's really a lot of it's him um he makes the pitchers better which is you know makes the pitchers on the other side worse of those pitchers you talked about at the at the draft combine i'm

[00:46:14] curious any of those guys at the top of the draft that the mariners might be thinking about at three share similar characteristics to woo that you think that kind of aligns with what he does yeah i mean a couple of guys were talking about it um really the thing that i was looking for out of the guys i was talking with that might fit with the mariners is the philosophy of just filling up the zone like attacking in the zone be good beat beat the other team with your stuff in the zone and who

[00:46:39] is going to do that now they can take a chance on i mean one of the guys i talked to was seth hernandez the high school kid is stud like you would want him on your team um jamie arnold really good pitcher um little quirky good stuff nice arm angle lower arm angle he might be a guy that that could play up in that way so uh i mean i i think there are a number of choices

[00:47:06] they can uh where they can go liam doyle loves filling up the zone he's one of those guys that would attack and i think a fan base would like him because he's colorful so there's a number of guys um that that people would like to that you that y'all would like to pick and that would do well in in the rotation a couple years so did you not mention kate anderson because you didn't talk to him or because he's not getting or because he's not getting to three yeah i didn't talk to him you

[00:47:33] know honestly any of those guys go ahead of them or behind them i think there there's there's a it's very hard to choose it's going to just depend on what you need and what you want kate anderson's a stud obviously everybody would love having him but so is like hernandez physically for a high school pitcher and his makeup seems really really good and he touched you know touches 100 change up he says is his best pitch um and that's unique out of a out of a high school kid

[00:48:02] so i mean i just i i can see bits and pieces of all of them while you would take him but it was nothing i didn't talk to kate at the combine um i'll talk to him at some point definitely a guy i like watching throw so rob you talk about the mariners pitching philosophy and filling up the strike zone and getting ahead in counts and i think there's one guy who embodies that more than anyone and the mariners didn't have him for the first bit of the season and george kirby but i want to get your take on something someone an opinion someone brought up to us

[00:48:29] on how george kirby pitches and if it really is the peak effectiveness of a pitcher and just and just hear it out yep the rationale he used was that um that when pitchers throw too many strikes and they're chasing strikes on say like a 3-1 count in an effort to not walk guys the the paranoia of not walking batters at all and in turn you might give up a hit uh a hit in retrospect and he said i think

[00:48:58] that actually hurts a pitcher if you're trying to chase strikes a little bit too hard as opposed to like if you're chasing chasing only pitching in the strike zone in an effort to not walk batters thinks he thinks it hurts batters and he used the terminology i'd rather my pitcher create strikes than throw strikes is there a point where you throw too many strikes yes there's definitely a point where you throw too many strikes and i've actually talked to hitters about it where they know somebody's going

[00:49:27] to be in a zone so they're comfortable getting off their a swing a lot more um now you as a pitcher your job is then to move there's a difference between commanding the zone and just having control where you're not leaving the zone kirby can command the zone he can go up down in out that should be fine generally um guys that fill up the zone but don't really have command of the zone may have a

[00:49:52] little bit more trouble unless their stuff plays up tarik skuble does not have amazing command like he can't throw the ball exactly where he wants to but he will throw the ball in the zone the entire day and shove and he also can touch 103 um so like his stuff just plays up anyway and the fact he he's not afraid to throw in the zone makes him even harder to hit kirby i do think i've thought he needed to

[00:50:19] leave the zone a little bit more but he also can vary his his pitches in the zone and just i think cole learned that where his fastball is getting teed off on sometimes because people expected a fastball in the zone and then he started moving it around the zone and started being more effective so i you know it's just a matter it's it's a matter of just being savvy as a pitcher he he'll be fine over the long run but it you know he'll take some bruises too because of exactly that how much does george

[00:50:48] kirby's stuff vary because i've always thought of this like there are points where george kirby's stuff plays up like his 14 strikeout outing he had against the angels a couple of weeks ago but then he'll also have outings where he'll serve up 12 hits and it's not like he's i feel like he's pitching that much differently because as we've talked about he's almost always living in the strike zone but sometimes you'll see his stuff play up to 99 and he's getting almost all the swing and miss and sometimes sometimes he's just getting hit around the park is he a guy whose

[00:51:17] stuff varies a little bit i think so i haven't studied it to that level yet but i can tell there are some days where his command is just absolutely dialed in and he can dominate a lineup when he is when his command's a little bit off and he has spots where he's more comfortable going so as a hitter you can probably say oh all right well he can nail this spot all the time he's probably going to go there in a stressful situation i'm like high high and outside to a right-handed hitter

[00:51:46] it's a hard pitch to hit anyway but if if you know it and you think that's a tendency maybe you can hit that um but he does like you can assume if he's behind an account he's attacking you in the zone like you know you're going to be swinging and that gives an event a little advantage to a hitter right like if you don't have any doubt in your mind that this guy's going to be in the zone so i'm swinging even if it's not where you exactly think it's going to be you're you know you're going to put off a

[00:52:12] good swing on it so that could be something um or it just could be some days when he's not exactly dialed in it it doesn't play as well we're bouncing around a little bit here but to go back to woo and tie in the topic of kirby last time we talked to you i want to say woo was about a calendar into his big league career from the time he debuted in june of 23 he walks less guys at this point than kirby does which is crazy because kirby is known as the king of strike strike throwing and

[00:52:41] very rightfully so but i feel like one of the most slept on storylines is since year two and on brian who just doesn't walk anybody i mean that's fascinating right it is i think he's one of those guys that fills up the zone a little more where he's thinking about like he's less trying to data dot a nat's ass and more trying to throw it in the zone because he knows his stuff plays well in the zone so more of a school type mentality then kirby is a nine pocket guy where he'll be like i'm gonna

[00:53:08] hit square one i'm gonna hit square three this time i'm gonna hit square seven and he'll just vary it around kirby's still the king of command command doesn't necessarily mean fewer walks necessarily because you can also command and throw the ball out of the zone intentionally like you want it you want to be just above the zone that's command and if it leaks in the zone that's not command

[00:53:31] so uh i still think kirby is even though woo would walk fewer i think woo's doing it a different way where he's just not afraid to attack the zone and he can live in middle middle if he can get away with it because of his arm slot and the way his pitches play up what has been the biggest reason why logan gilbert in context when we talked to you last year logan gilbert was in the midst of his real breakout

[00:53:57] elite ace like season and now in the year plus since he has just continued to show why he is what he is what has been the biggest reason why he's gotten to that point is it a certain pitch is it how how he is pitching where where do you see that to me it's his splitter like i i think his splitter is one of the best pitches in baseball period when it's on it is a like this creature that is pretty unique it has very low spin rate because of his monster hands and it just dives and it can be

[00:54:27] unpredictable too so to me that was the pitch that really took his game to the next level because he can exert full effort so you're seeing it and he's throwing it with fastball intensity like he throws everything i mean that dude is is dialed in when he throws he's fun to watch his mannerisms are fun to watch um but i think it's that i think it's being able to throw that splitter that starts out looking like a fastball and then ends up doing whatever it does that's one of those pitches that

[00:54:53] even if you're in swing mode what are you going to do like i don't i mean that's that's not a hittable pitch when he when he's throwing it well it doesn't matter where it goes but then you have a slider that he throws more than his fastball yeah and he throws 99 miles an hour which you feel like should be backwards if you should want to attack with 99 and then use your slider to get the out pitch but the last you know calendar year and a half he has thrown his slider more than his fastball it's different than lance mccullers though right in terms of strategy because mccullers only really

[00:55:22] threw that slider right and if i'm mcculler mccullers doesn't care mccullers can spin a baseball with anybody and he could throw a full game and never throw a fastball um gilbert does use his fastball i think that is a cal raleigh thing because i taught what i was asking cal to break down the pitchers i think i think logan was the only one where he didn't say his fastball was his best pitch i think he said splitter um so i think he's shying away from the fastball because it's

[00:55:52] metrically not that great a pitch even with his extension and everything else cal just feels like he could hit logan gilbert's fastball so he doesn't call it as much um that's my theory and i'm not and i'm sticking to it so he'll be a slider splitter guy and have to live with it as long as cal's back there or or in someone's ear those two have a really funny relationship and they love that yeah yeah like they've been good friends ever since they kind of came through the system together

[00:56:20] because they've been at basically every level together and i heard this story in spring training which i thought was hilarious and logan being logan and wanting to throw 14 different pitches and basically be like seth lugo to another level or whatever is always tinkering around with stuff he was trying out a splinker in spring training and i think toward the tail end cal basically puts a hand on his shoulder he's like hey buddy that splinker's staying in arizona that's the way they are like

[00:56:48] that is that is cal to a t i think he is the unsung hero of the pitching staff or maybe sung hero now like everybody's talking about his hitting no one's talking about his catching anymore and he's such a good he's a stabilizer with the pitching staff because of his attitude he has a firm opinion on folks but he's also a calm calming guy and i don't know that the pitching staff needs that much calming because most of those guys are kind of chill other than logan who might eat somebody's

[00:57:16] head um but i i do think a lot of it has to do with with cal again and i love that relationship between the two because they're kind of logan off the field is pretty mild-mannered logan on the field is not a guy that you want to you want to mess with if you're on the other side of him like he's just not no logan on his non-start days is one of the nicest people you'll talk to yeah logan on his start day like i wouldn't want to be within 100 feet of that guy no like you can just see all of

[00:57:46] his mannerisms he wants to kill somebody and even when he k's somebody just like go away for me get away get out of here you're not good enough i know he doesn't feel like he's doing that he actually said i hope people don't think that's what i'm doing i'm like dude own it you're just missing everybody just do it you mean with the really like subtle wave for people watch on youtube when he kind of follows through and it's yes that follow through dismissal wave thing he does

[00:58:10] garrett cole does that um but but logan definitely does that maybe more than anybody right now is there anything left for him to continue to do in terms of his game as arsenal to take him to another level or is he at the point where he just has to maintain what he's doing i mean i'd like to see his fastball make cal's list as a pitch that's hard to hit so maybe there's some tinkering he can do with

[00:58:36] that but other than that no like again i think if he can figure out a way to harness that splitter and keep using his slider i think right now you have the splitter slider effect where it goes opposite directions which is useful to do he can attack up down um yeah maybe i don't know if he's a sinker guy i just some guys can throw it some guys can't who knows um yeah i mean i think he's a

[00:59:00] pretty he's a cy young talent like he any year that he's healthy if you told me he was going to win a cy young award if you picked him to win a cy young award any year he's healthy i wouldn't argue with you because he's got that type of stuff do you have to be a lower release or side release guy to throw a sinker and for it to work well because logan's is kind of like in between he's so tall but then when he's throwing he gets down lower and sort of throws from three quarters now it can definitely help

[00:59:28] to have a lower release to get a little bit more run on it um it really depends on the gyro spin of the fastball itself and it's all uh seam shifted wake stuff so some of it just depends on how you're releasing it but a lot of those guys are lower arm slot guys too about a guy who does have a sinker in louis castio he's now in his fourth year with the mariners where is he at for what you see with

[00:59:52] him right now he's at times spectacular he's very inconsistent to me there are times where you're like how does anybody ever hit this guy and then times where he's hittable i haven't seen as much of his you of his you know i love when he's going and he's feeling and he's giving me the the la piedra arm pump stuff fist pump stuff and like that's the stuff i love watching from him he's a fun guy to

[01:00:18] watch pitch um yeah i liked him more at 99 consistently and stuff like bumping 98 99 but he's still the lower arm slot guy it plays i think there may be some things he can optimize a little better but other than that like he's had some sinkers that were just disgusting this year so it's just a matter of him putting together full games and he's capable of shutting down anybody he's also capable of

[01:00:45] giving up a stinker every once in a while as are most pitchers but i find him maybe a little more than some i'm trying to remember if we've asked you this over the last couple years so if we have that's on me but i'm gonna ask you again yeah sure is is there anything in your opinion to what's happened with his change up over the years because change up like a change up with a lot of guys is a pitch that ages like fine wine and just stays the same over time and for whatever reason

[01:01:13] with him it feels like it's lost a bit of its effect it has and and i think a lot of it is so max scherzer describes his change up as a mid-range jumper which is all feel so if you're thinking about it you know it's like a mid-range putt or something like that you have to have some feel and sometimes good sometimes it's bad when he was dominating with his fastball and you're throwing like fastball effect you it may be harder to dial in the feel a little bit with the pitch you're going away from it

[01:01:39] and then it's just not there when you need it even if you've thrown it your whole life there is a feel portion of that pitch that is hard to replicate unless you're throwing it a lot and he was a change up first guy that's how he became known and then he became a fastball low arm slot guy that just lives up in the zone and no one can hit it that's typically a better pitch if you're gonna if you can do it then you should be throwing that a lot because it's a very valuable pitch to throw but it also means you

[01:02:07] may sacrifice some of your other pitches and i think that that's what happened is the key to just throw it more yeah probably um just get a bet just get that feel back i've seen him throw some really good ones he does have the ability to do it just not that consistent and then you go away from it so you it's hard to find it during a game because you may throw that one but if you go back to it over and over again and it's not there you're gonna give up on it pretty soon if it's getting hit right like

[01:02:34] you're gonna be like hey let's scrap this the change up today um where it just may be a matter of throwing it a little more you're probably not gonna want to do it and you're not gonna have the opportunity to dial it in because it's you don't have the patience to deal with it getting hit so um i think he just went away from so much that i don't think of him as a change-up guy anymore you're right even though he was he had legitimately a top three change-up among starting pitchers in

[01:02:58] baseball before he came to seattle last time we had you on we said to you is there a big hole in your heart with the loss of matt brash that was right around the time he got to tommy john well now he's back so i'd have to imagine you're pretty happy to see him back on the mound like the rest of us right he's yeah i mean he's another guy you talk to hitters around the league what's the pitch

[01:03:21] they hate to hit the most and matt brash's slider comes up all the time because he throws it so hard it doesn't drop and it just takes off and you think you're swinging at it you end up it ends up off your bat people hate it and he is a you know his pitches have that cartoon nature that when he's on good freaking luck man that guy is so nasty well have you seen a sinker what is that have you seen a

[01:03:49] sinker yeah well it's i was gonna say it's change up too that he rolled out like was really good well so that's what i was gonna ask you and follow up with you here is for as good as he already is he looks a little different now off the surgery right because he's essentially ditched that four seamer but he's throwing that change up more he's got the sinker i mean it's matt brash just continuing to be matt brash but in a slightly different way i like him with the same like number one for for my

[01:04:18] purposes east west attacks are way better for people visually going like oh my god how does anybody hit this pitch because it broke so much um up down is a little harder although curveballs that fall off are kind of fun fastballs at the top of the zone people just like oh it's a fastball you should be able to hit it but they don't understand that so for me having matt brash and for overlays stuff like

[01:04:43] that's showing how a sinker and slider play together makes it more fun but also it makes it harder for a hitter because if you're thinking you see a ball down the middle it may be all the way off the plate one way or all the way off the plate the other way it's it's a tough choice for a hitter so i think it's a good move for him and it's a good move for me and that's all i really care about is is the sinker or change up a more important addition for him i probably the sinker because you're going to throw

[01:05:11] it more um but that change up like you know it's it's a very very good pitch and i'm not gonna i'm not gonna diss it but i like the idea of the of the sinker i think it also allows you to get the thing i like is and why you're seeing a lot of pitchers go four seam two seam two is number one if you're guessing velocity and you see velocity you don't know where it's going to end up still because it could be a two seamer or four seamer hunter brown's been dominant with that combination um and then just

[01:05:41] the ability to spread you know to spread east to west is huge terrick scoogle throws a ton of a ton of two seamer sinkers and it's not neither not necessarily even a sinker it's a two seamer that lives up in the zone that gets more movement than a four seamer so to me there's a reason why pitchers are adding both of them and i it's a very good addition for for brash it also allows you to get out of an inning quicker because hitters are swinging you tend to center up a sinker a little

[01:06:10] worse and you know they put it in play doesn't get k's but it can get you ground balls would get you out of innings is this the most complete repertoire speaking of repertoires that we've seen from andres munoz probably so and as a reason yeah i mean i would say he just tinkered a little bit like you the whole staff seems to tinker like there's guys are just adding random stuff and i love it like give me guys that constantly try to get better but yeah i i do think it's the best we've

[01:06:39] seen of him um and i'm not saying there's not even another level he can get to but right now confidence wise as well as stuff yeah that's the best you've seen and here's how i think about this rob because i'll always like to compare to his 2022 season his 2022 season is one of the best mariner relief seasons the mariners have ever had in their franchise's history but he did it with primarily two pitches and only one of the pitches was really dominant he threw his fastball really

[01:07:04] hard but he got hit around a little bit now it's more he's gonna limit the damage when guys do make contact the strikeout rate's not gonna be quite as high but he's gonna be giving up less damage overall would if you're looking at a reliever do you perform more whiff or less damage if you were to choose one more whiffs because whiffs are something that that is replicate replicatable you can replicate how about that i'll just change the form um whiffs whiffs get you out of innings

[01:07:34] i'd rather whoever's up not hit the ball that is my philosophy and i think i think that's just an overall good philosophy for a reliever you come in in a basis loaded situation you're not really you don't want you want to strike everybody out so to me that's better i like the whiffs but if it's consistent weak contact and it's because people are just scared to hit against you that's a little

[01:07:58] different i thought i'm miserowski the other day he was getting swings on stuff that like they were just putting their bat out hoping to hit it and putting the ball in play like there's a 102 mile an hour pitch at the knees and he whoever it was just hit the ball straight into the ground it got an easy out i'm like all right that's weak contact that you can replicate um so i i love seeing that but generally i'm not a weak contact i don't mean to get sidetracked here but because you bring up jacob

[01:08:25] miserowski we were at the futures game here in seattle in 23 and and the two of us follow prospects pretty closely i i didn't know a ton about miserowski but i watched that inning he threw and i just turned to everybody sitting with us including tj and i go who in the hell is this and now we know exactly like this is what makes what i do so much fun is when you get to show guys that that are just outliers

[01:08:51] way out like you've never seen anything like this before and you get to show that to the world that one thing can make my day and he is absolutely one of the guys i've made the year so far because just ridiculous stuff off the chart stuff and uh extension stuff makeup like he's a chill dude you watch him he's he just seems like he's enjoying himself and the command has seemingly knock on wood

[01:09:17] been really good so yeah love love love that dude yeah do you remember where you were when you saw muñoz's kick change for the first time and how you reacted yeah i was in front of a computer probably right sitting in this seat and somebody was somebody put it up uh on x and i was like i was looking at brian woo's reaction to it and i was like all right if if woo's reacting like that to this

[01:09:43] pitch i need to pay attention to it i'm like what the hell is that that sounds about right that's kind of how we reacted yeah like it's one of those things if he dials that in constantly what do you get like he's already hard to hit it's unfair so i want to ask you about bryce miller because he's been sidelined on the injured list and he's been dealing with elbow inflammation he's got a bone spur in his

[01:10:10] elbow when he has tried to pitch this season there's been a number of things that haven't been going right he's been getting hit harder he's been getting less strikeouts he's been walking more guys essentially the opposite of what we saw from bryce miller last year i think the biggest thing we saw is that his velocity was down and the stuff was not playing up as much why for bryce does his velocity need to be up for his stuff to work hey he relies on that fastball that kind of lives above the same reason why strider when strider's

[01:10:39] velo dropped off his stuff he was doing everything right he wasn't number one his confidence was down hitters can tell i could tell from both i mean bryce miller very confident pitcher quiet confidence like he is spencer strider very confident pitcher when they don't have their calling card which is the velocity it's it takes a toll on their confidence they don't feel like they can get someone out because that's how they've always gotten people out by throwing fastballs by people at the top of the zone

[01:11:07] and when you don't have the velo to do it it becomes a little bit more batting practice-y that you just you know it just doesn't feel right you eventually get it back i mean you see what happened with strider he got it back and he's been back to being unhittable but it was really like somebody just took the power out like it's like the monstars stole their talent when you see that happen to a guy when they drop a few miles an hour when they're a guy like bryce who lives like i

[01:11:35] when i talked to bryce it's like you remind me of strider with that fastball and living at the top top that's somebody that you can model your game after but when you lose that velo and you lose a little bit of command all of a sudden doesn't play that well um he'll get it back he's he's a hard worker no no doubt last one i got for you is with all the talk about these big league arms i am curious for how close you may pay attention are there any mariner's arms down in the minors that may have

[01:12:04] caught your attention like have you bought into any gerangelo sangea fever yet dude gerangelo is the man like he's another i interviewed him last year at the at the combine number one most times somebody can throw with both hands it's a it's a gimmick i mean he legitimately can throw hard with both hands that's different like it's not just getting it over but also he can throw 99 from the right side i

[01:12:29] mean it's still like at his lower height he's like and he's got a confidence about him great you know just great my makeup like he's got a great makeup about him definitely a gerangelo fan um and i want to see him up trying to think of anybody else there was a one of the mariners accounts posted a minor

[01:12:54] league and i'm trying to remember who it was i was like wait a second y'all clone matt brash who is a guy matt brash no it was a guy that looked like that was filthy um same east to west attack east west attack sloan that might be it right yeah he's pretty nasty and he's only teenager still yeah somebody i it came up on my in my feed and i just replied to it like what am i watching like when i first saw

[01:13:22] brash it blew my mind like i was like this this is somebody that is like carrie wood nasty 20 strikeout game nasty and you don't see that you don't see pitches that break that way and it was like i think my reply at that point was what in the carrie wood is this and this was and then i was like wait y'all clone matt brash when i saw i think it was sloan well let's do some digging we'll get back to you on and yes i mean if you can find it it was i i'll see if i can find it real quick and you reply to

[01:13:52] it yes yeah okay yeah we get we do some digging on that okay last thing from me rob you live in atlanta we're going to atlanta for all-star weekend i imagine some of our listeners will also be in atlanta to go celebrate all-star weekend do you have any recommendation for the people on on what to do when they're down there dude we're gonna be we're gonna be great hosts like the stadium itself has a lot of places you can go but also there i mean the whole buckhead area is great um virginia highland's a great

[01:14:21] place to hang out pretty much any place you'll be in good shape in atlanta we're gonna put on a good all-star game and and i think it's very well set up for a bunch of festivities around the all-star game it's a self-contained mall almost outdoor mall with a lot of good i think everybody's gonna have a great time it'll be hot as hell though so oh i'm sure we're gonna bring something to the cool off it's gonna be terrible we're gonna bring a lot of water and a lot of sunscreen especially for lyle

[01:14:47] we need to watch out for yeah for lyle any food recommendations for people like in general i mean we're known for like barbecue here it depends how much you want to spend but i would say definitely go grab yourself some barbecue um ribs really good um anything southern like you know even chicken and various like we're we're known for a bunch of different things here so i told lyle we're going to waffle house waffle house of course like but you have to do it like three in the morning be drunk

[01:15:16] so that's one of the rules yeah um there's like there's so many different things you can do if you want if you like oysters there's a place called the kimball house that and i know seattle they bring in they fly in seattle oysters every once in a while you've got oysters from all over the place pacific northwest um east coast everywhere and it's a long menu of stuff go during happy hour and and eat a lot of seafood it's a good place to go and great drinks well thank you for those

[01:15:45] recommendations rob i hope people listen to them and go check those places out because that'll be a lot of fun rob thanks again for taking some time for us we always appreciate your analysis and we look forward to seeing you in atlanta awesome i can't wait rob was great we always love talking to um hopefully you guys got all the breakdowns you wanted on a bunch of different mariners arms hey by the way sounds like he validated you waffle house is worth it question mark 3 a.m have you never

[01:16:14] been to a waffle house at some point maybe we'll have to go to waffle house it it's a 24 hours dog southern hospitality there's nothing better than plate of eggs and bacon and waffles at three in the morning so given given the way our all-star weekends sometimes go with the like how late we end up staying up at these events and things like that that might be the time we have to eat and we we allocate

[01:16:39] for ourselves to go sit down and have a meal at so sure wobble house at 3 a.m and we did joke about since we fly out so early on wednesday and we might need somewhere to like hang out until the flight wobble house will be open dog it's true this is true well we will update you guys but i'm glad we got rob's approval and i'm glad we got to hear him break down all these mariners arms because he's he does a great job with it and it's so fascinating to always hear his opinions so awesome to talk to rob

[01:17:06] hopefully you guys enjoyed and with that that just about wraps up this edition of the marine layer podcast you guys know the drill if you want to find all of our stuff it's all over at our website marinelayerpod.com you can get everything from our merch again hats are now on the website we're fired up for it we're going to unveil more as some weeks go on but for now our first edition of the hats the dad hats up on the site with summer right now not not even around the corner anymore it's right here you can go get your hats you can go get your marine layer pod t-shirts you can get

[01:17:35] your hoodies and long sleeves if you're still interested in those as well it's all over at our site you can check out our patreon at our site which we'd love to have you get involved with we'll give you one more reminder our next live show is this saturday 12 p.m at the hall on occidental on occidental avenue in seattle right by the ballpark we'd love to have you out we'd love to have you get involved it's going to be a blast of a show we'd love to see you there so that's all over at our website as well if you want some information on it and then you can find all our episodes there

[01:18:02] again that's all at marinelayerpod.com but again youtube and audio it's all there for you guys so check that out and then follow us all across social media at marine layer pod that's tj i'm lyle as always we thank you guys for tuning in we'll talk to you soon

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