Episode 261: The Mariners Road Ahead Is Concerning Us.......

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[00:00:49] Welcome to episode number 261 of the Marine Layer Podcast. The Mariners take two of three games from the Rangers over the weekend and overall have a good 10 game road trip, but Lyle and I still have some concerns and we'll air them out here on this episode. We also have our number six MLB Draft Spotlight. Here's your guys reminder if you want to stay on top of everything we're doing, you can find it in one spot. That's right over at MarineLayerPod.com, our official podcast website where you can find everything from your merch.

[00:01:17] We love seeing people wear their merch, their shirts, their hats. TJ's got it on right now. We'd love to see you wearing it around the park. So go get your merch. Our Patreon's over there if you want to sign up and get involved with that. All our episodes are over at our website. Our upcoming live show schedules are over at our website. It's really a one-stop shop. So if you want to stay on top of everything, you can go over there, MarineLayerPod.com, and then follow us all across social media at MarineLayerPod. Let's get it rolling.

[00:01:56] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network. Recording on Sunday evening, June 29th. I think the Mariners just played the weirdest series of the season. It might be the most aggravating series of the season that ended up in a series win. The fact that it came out positive, like we're like, okay, we're sitting here talking about this episode, and we have these things we're thinking about and that we'll talk about here on this episode.

[00:02:25] And it's like, well, the Mariners also won two of three. And they went six and four on the road trip on the start of a 17 games and 17 days stretch where there was weather delays thrown in. They had some really weird weather in Chicago, all these things working against them, and they've been six and four so far. And Lallana are still like, yeah, actually, we still have a lot of things to complain about. For good reason.

[00:02:51] This series did not inspire a ton of confidence in who this team's going to be moving forward. I know it's only one series, but it just adds on to the pile of things we've seen throughout the course of the year that more look one in the same with lack of identity from a team, the struggle to find one facet in one area of the ball club that's particularly thriving. There are some things to dive into in this episode.

[00:03:18] Like, I wish we could just sit here and talk about how awesome the series was. But unfortunately, when you win two of three when all three games go to extra innings, there is randomness involved in that. It's not like the old days where I say old days as if it wasn't just a few years ago. It's not like the old way of extra innings where it's just a normal inning. When you start with a runner on second base, there is such an element of randomness to the game that gets added in that wins become fluky. The Mariners could have just as easily gotten swept that week this weekend as they won two of three.

[00:03:48] So, yes, it's ultimately good they won. Those are more wins in the win column. But long term here and overall process, I think we're going to dive into some things. And they could very well need those wins at the end of the season. I even think of the results on this road trip before we get into my concerns. And let me just state right here. I am going to raise my hand right here. I told Lyle this before we started recording, and I will say it on the record right now. I'm going to do my best not to complain all episode. I'm going to try. I promise. I will try. I'm going to make that statement.

[00:04:16] I'm going to try and be better. I will try. I won't be. I won't be doing that. Okay, good. We need a little bit of balance here. That's fine. That's fine. The other things like this road trip, right? It's like the Mariners win a game against someone else. Two other teams who are competing for wildcard spots as well, which is why I'm like, there has to be some sort of positive in here we can talk about. There's something here that the Mariners, you know, achieved this past week that works.

[00:04:43] But then I go and like look at the last five days and I'm like, you remember how we talked about they jumped in that five game stretch to start the road trip? They started. They went from 27th in runs scored in the month of June to 8th in the span of five days. Well, they're back down to 15th after Sunday. Yeah. And by the way, the six runs they scored on Sunday, it's the fakest number of all time.

[00:05:09] As you said, like fluky with runners on second, they scored one run in regulation. Yeah. You know what? I'm actually going to throw out some positivity here before we even get into everything else throughout the series. And before we really start to get into the weeds of what we watch this weekend, I'm actually going to highlight three positives here. They're just a couple of quick hitters. Number one. Well, you know what? I'm going to go backwards because number one, I want to say for the end. Number three. Shout out Mitch Garber.

[00:05:37] Not only did he carry the team and essentially drag them to a win on Sunday with the way he played and the way he hit, but last 15 games, Mitch Garber's OPS in about 740. I know it's not the player that everybody hoped he was going to be when they signed him last winter. But if you want to look at a smaller sample, he's starting to heat up a little bit. And if you can get some production out of Mitch Garber, that's positive. So that's number three. Number two. Dom can zone, man. That guy keeps hitting on Saturday.

[00:06:05] He hit another nuke of a homer and the guy every time he leaves the yard, their tape measure shots. So how long will this last? Is it just a flash in the pan? We still have yet to see. I don't think enough of a sample size has been accrued yet, but for now, Dom can zones force in the Mariners hand. So he's put like that. He is forcing the Mariners to put him in the lineup most days, especially when there's righties on the mountain. So shout out Dom. And then number one. I'm going to keep saying it. Brian will has got to be an all-star. He has to be an all-star.

[00:06:32] That's another six innings with no earned runs he gave up on Saturday. His ERA is down to 2-9-1. And I'm jumping on the back of Pitching Ninja here. Put the guy in Atlanta. Like he deserves it. He's the only pitcher in baseball this season to go 16 for 16 and going six innings. He's, he's unreal. It's pretty good. Tarek Skool, by the way, who was, as we're recording here on Sunday night, doing some very, very inappropriate things to the Minnesota Twins. Even he hasn't done that.

[00:07:02] Yeah. Tarek Skool did just go seven shutout, one hit with 13 punch outs. But yes, he has not gone six innings. No, not every start. That guy, that guy will not just be in the all-star game. He will be starting the all-star game. He better be. How did the Mariners beat him? Luck. Dylan Moore got one lucky swing on a ball that left the yard. And otherwise, didn't they win that game like 2-1? Or 3-2. They got two runs off of him. Okay. So, yeah.

[00:07:32] I think, I think one came off. Yeah. Like you said, off the bullpen. Anyway, I don't know if they're doing that again when they go to Detroit in a couple weeks. If they face Skool in that series. Ha! Yeah. I, I'm not putting many chips into that game. From where your concerns lie right now, would you rather focus on what you saw over the weekend and how those trends would, would play out the rest of the season or even up to the deadline?

[00:07:56] We can, if we want to small, if we want to shorten what we look at, or do you want to look at like what they have in front of them at this moment? Let's do, let's do the former of that statement first. We can do deadline, we can do deadline stuff and leading up to the deadline second. How about that? Sure. Dylan Moore has to be one of yours. Speaking of the man.

[00:08:20] I mean, which is too bad because obviously like this is a guy who I've been a huge fan of his game for forever. But man, I don't know how much longer this can go on with Dylan Moore. I don't know if he needs a fan of my Elston or they're going to have to resort to something else. But Dylan Moore in his last 15 games is one for 25 with a 151 OPS. No, that's not his batting average. That's not even his on base percentage. He's got a 151 OPS in his last 15 games.

[00:08:49] His last 30 games, he's seven for 61 with a 366 OPS. And by the way, his strikeout numbers are jaw droppingly astronomical. 42% since May 1st. Like 42%. That's what got Luis Urias sent down to Tacoma last year. Remember, he was striking out 40% of the time and the Mariners were like, yeah, like you can't run with this.

[00:09:15] No D and Demos lost his everyday playing time. He's been on the bench. If you go look at his game logs, it's the last handful of appearances. He's all coming off the bench. I don't know why in Dylan Moore's current state, he's pinch hitting. That doesn't really make much sense from a process standpoint to say, yeah, this guy's really struggling. Let's put him in one of the most important situations of the game to hit. That's not very, that's not really great. And it does not work out for Dimo either.

[00:09:45] That miles Mastroboni had one of the more important games of his season so far this weekend to help them win on Friday. He had to go ahead single and then he made this unbelievable catch over shoulder at third base. And yeah, Mastro's not been great offensively, but the Mariners don't expect him to be great offensively. I think they like some of the other things he does and like him as a, as a bench player. And guess what else happens to be in Dylan Moore's organization?

[00:10:12] Leo Rivas, who's been still playing pretty well down in AAA and can do pretty much what Dylan Moore can do at less of the price and probably more production than what he, what Dylan Moore is doing right now. It has been a tough go at it for Dimo. I don't think they want to make like a quick decision on Dylan Moore, which is why it's played out so long, but you've seen the Mariners make moves for guys who have done less.

[00:10:36] Mm-hmm. Yeah, you have, which is tough because Dylan Moore is the longest tenured player on the roster at this point since early, early 2019. I mean, again, they've loved what he's done as a utility player for almost six years now, but we're getting to a point as his contracts winding down here because he's a free agent at the end of the year where it's, you know, it's, it's uncompetitive right now.

[00:10:56] It's totally uncompetitive. We ultimately don't have to spend 20 minutes on a utility player in Dylan Moore, but it is something to circle here because one way or another, it is going to lead to the point where they have to make a decision because it, you just can't have him playing. If he's going to run out a 42% K rate and a 366 OPS over a month. The biggest bummer for me is that his, his first month, his month of April was pretty damn good. It was one of the better months he's had as a Mariner.

[00:11:25] It was in terms of balance, in terms of slug, in terms of strikeout rate and walk rate combined. It was about as good as it got. And you and I sat on here and said, has Dylan Moore evolved a little bit? Has he changed? And then he has gone so far back in the other direction that his numbers now look worse than they did last year, even though he got so far of a headstart, which is disappointing. Yeah. I've got, I've got another, and it's one more player trend.

[00:11:53] And I think after that, we'll get into a couple of team trends because I know there's a couple overall trends that you want to highlight. So, oh, before we even get to the second player trend, you mentioned putting in or not putting in Dylan Moore as a pinch hitter and the decisions that go behind that. Yeah. We're going to be getting into some decision-making in this episode too, because what we witnessed on Sunday was, we'll get into it. But yeah, there are, there are thoughts to be had on that.

[00:12:22] Anyway, before we get to all that, the other one here is, it's Julio. And I mean, this is kind of all encompassing. There's a couple of things here. There's Julio himself, which look, we may spend an entire episode at this point, some point in the next couple of weeks, highlighting just what's gone wrong with his offensive approach this year.

[00:12:46] And, you know, what's trended on for a while now, but it was essentially this time one year ago where we got on this podcast and we had to have a long conversation about who is Julio Rodriguez. And we said, look, this just isn't a superstar. And I think everybody's come to grips with that. But now we're sitting here in it and we're not even talking about what's the right way to phrase this? I wouldn't say we're worried about the semantics of it anymore. No, I feel like that discussion has been had. No, it has.

[00:13:15] It's more about Julio, the offensive player. Like, we know what he's going to do with the glove. We know what he's going to do with his speed. And we know that's going to accumulate war. But Julio hits at the top of the lineup every day. And the organization made a large financial investment in the guy because they expected him to truly mash with the bat. It's not the only reason, but that was part of what has gone into these decisions. And it's obviously part of the decision for him to hit second almost every day. And I know he had three hits on Sunday. I know he had three singles.

[00:13:43] But it more comes back to a bigger picture of he just does not lift the baseball. And we talked about it with Hembo a few weeks ago. And it's been the same thing over and over and over again now. It's like he's a contact hitter. It's like he's, you know, he plays catch with Ichiro every day. It almost looks like Ichiro in some ways except without the ridiculously high average. It is a lot of balls on the ground that do not result in damage.

[00:14:10] If you want to look into a couple of the metrics behind it, I mean, barrel rate, he's in the 39th percentile. Launch angle sweet spot is where it gets his worst. And it's ninth percentile, meaning, again, he's not squaring up the baseball and he's not launching it. It's exactly what it explains. And hard hit rate, he's 51st percentile. So he's barely above league average for a guy that's supposed to scorch baseballs. Like everything about that profile says he's just not lifting the ball.

[00:14:39] He's not pulling the baseball and he's not doing enough damage. And if you just go back year by year by year and you take a look at the quality of contact, it has never been lower than it has been this year. So what it seems like from a general premise is that in an effort to avoid strikeouts, in painting the broadest picture of his at-bats, not looking at every single one, but just a broad look at it,

[00:15:04] he is sacrificing the quality of contact he is making to avoid strikeouts and trying to be a little bit more aggressive. Overall, it has not led to him being more productive offensively. My question then would be to say, okay, so all of that is correct at this point, Lyle. What would you suggest doing? The problem is there's not much of a solution because there's not other... Exactly. And that's what I came back to, right?

[00:15:34] I saw someone tweeted out online today, I forget who it was, said, why is Julio hitting second still? Who else is going to hit second? Well, this goes to the problem with the way the roster was built, doesn't it? Because there's not another solution. They have screamed into people's ears for years now, well, when Julio goes, our offense goes, and that's the way our team's going to be built. Guess what?

[00:15:58] Now, for essentially three straight years, if you take out about 12 weeks time, that has not been the case. In the last three seasons now, 23, 24, 25, Julio's had 10 to 12 weeks time in that stretch where he's gone nuclear. And the rest of it, like, he's barely an above average bat. There's been plenty of points where he's been a below-league average bat in those stretches. So, yeah, there's not much you can do.

[00:16:25] But for a team that's banking on Julio to be great, you're still waiting around to see it. And that's a problem because, guess what? Like, now teams are starting to figure the Mariners out offensively for all the problems they've already had. Cal Raleigh is now getting intentionally walked a lot. I mean, Adam Jude just wrote an article about it in the Seattle Times here on Sunday evening. But Cal's been walked 10 times now intentionally this season. And this weekend against the Rangers, you saw it a bunch where the Rangers just said, you know what? We're not letting that guy beat us.

[00:16:55] We're going to make anybody else on this roster do the damage, and we're going to live with it if they do. But it's not going to be 29 that beats us. It's the same thing we were pissed about when Aaron Judge hit that homer in the Mariners series, or in the Yankees series, because we said, make someone else on the team beat you. The Rangers and now teams across the league are starting to tell the Mariners, make Julio beat us, make Randy beat us, make somebody else in this lineup beat us. And guess what? This weekend against Texas, they weren't scoring runs.

[00:17:22] Egal, ob sie gerade erst beginnen oder ihr Sicherheitsprogramm erweitern, herausragende Sicherheitspraktiken zu demonstrieren und Vertrauen aufzubauen, ist wichtiger denn je. Vanta automatisiert die Einhaltung von ISO 27001, SOC 2 und mehr, spart ihnen Zeit und Geld und hilft ihnen, das Vertrauen ihrer Kunden zu stärken. Darüber hinaus können sie Sicherheitsüberprüfungen vereinfachen, indem sie Fragebögen automatisieren und die Sicherheit ihrer IT-Infrastruktur

[00:17:50] mit einem kundenorientierten Trust Center demonstrieren. Über 9000 globale Unternehmen wie Atlassian, Flow Health und Quora nutzen Vanta bereits, um Risiken zu managen und Sicherheit in Echtzeit nachzuweisen. Erhalten sie ein spezielles Angebot von 1000 Dollar Rabatt unter venta.com. I would say that's more of a who's behind Cal than in front of that, in front of him. I would not change any of the front three in the Mariners' order.

[00:18:20] I think you keep it the exact same thing. And I think you hope, at this point you have to hope that it will turn around and the lift will come at some point this season. You'd have to think so. Because you don't have a better option. I'm not hitting Luke Raley second. I'm not doing lefty-lefty at the top of the lineup, or potentially three straight lefties at the top of the lineup. I'm not putting Randy second. A little too streaky. More streaky than Julio is second. And no one else is good enough to hit the second. Yeah. So just leave him up there. Right. So we can complain about the ground balls.

[00:18:49] And it's definitely right. He needs to do more damage with the baseball. And we promise we will do a Julio episode. We will take a lot deeper dive into this subject than we're going to do right here on this segment. But yeah, he needs to hit better. He does need to hit better. We've realized now that we have three months of sample that just not striking out is not valuable enough to him. There needs to be damage that comes along with it. It can't just be reducing how you get out.

[00:19:19] It also needs to be doing... It also needs to be what you do when you don't get out. And right now it's been lower than what he did last year. His WRC Plus right now is six points lower than it was at this point last season. And that... It should not continue to trend down. Hopefully in the second half, that number will trend above the number he had last season. Yeah. I'm glad you brought up the Cal point. The last... Yeah. No, okay. Finish up on Julio. The last quick Julio thing I was going to get to is just to give a little preview

[00:19:49] into what we'll eventually talk more about is if you want to look at two areas for Julio Rodriguez where the production just hasn't been there, even past some of the peripherals with like the hard hit rate and the ground balls, he is not hitting right-handed pitching. He's got a 692 OPS against righties. So he's hit lefties fine. He's got about an 800 OPS against lefties. Hasn't hit righties. And I think the more concerning thing is now what he's doing at T-Mobile Park and he has a 645 OPS at home.

[00:20:18] That's not good. Julio plays half his games there. He's going to be playing the next 8 to 10 years there at least. And he's not hitting at T-Mobile Park. We know the problems that T-Mobile has for hitters. And Julio all of a sudden is not beating the ballpark factors that he was hitting through in his rookie year. Yeah, not at all. And that's about right in line with what the Mariners have done at home this year. There's about 100 OPS difference. 100 points of OPS difference. Road and Hope. 771 on the road.

[00:20:48] 671 at home. He's not hitting at home. Nope. He's got to hit at home. I'm glad you brought up the Cal Raleigh point though. I do think the strategy of this is going to be a big part on whether or not the Mariners' offense can be consistent in the second half of the season. Because what we have complained about especially since the start of May is that the Mariners' offense has been so reliant on Cal Raleigh driving in a majority of the runs. What's going to happen

[00:21:17] when the bat gets taken out of Cal Raleigh's hand like this weekend and the Rangers intentionally walked him, I believe, four times? Who then is going to step up and produce after Cal gets intentionally walked with runners on base? Who's going to step up and do that? You can just, first of all, look at the fourth and fifth spots in the Mariners' order this year and the production that's come out of those spots. Unfortunately, when I went to go look, huh, who's been the most productive members of this spot of the lineup? Do you want to guess who the most productive member

[00:21:46] of these spots of the lineup has been? At the number four spot in the lineup. I don't know. Enlighten me. Cal Raleigh. Oh, good. Can't protect himself. Do you want to guess who the most productive, albeit actually, this doesn't count. It is technically Cal in the five spot too, but he has one at bat. And he, no, he didn't hit a home run, but he drove in two runs. Um,

[00:22:16] so the big problem is the Mariners need more production out of this spot. Overall, if you go look at the four spot in the Mariners' lineup, it has an over an 800 OPS, but Cal does a lot of heavy lifting there. It's going to need to be somebody else besides Cal Raleigh. The first person you go to look at is Randy Rosarena, but Randy Rosarena, when he's been hitting cleanup this year, has an OPS about league average, which is not good enough really for a cleanup hitter,

[00:22:45] especially not one when Cal Raleigh gets intentionally walked that you're going to rely on consistently to drive in runs. You'd want that number a little bit higher. Maybe even high enough where Randy, what Randy does in the five spot, which is closer to 800, which is great. But when he's been batting in that four spot, it just, it hasn't really been, been the same. And that's where I think the concern lies because then when you get past Randy and you look at some of the other names, at least the Mariners have Luke Raley back now, which can help this out, especially when you're facing righties.

[00:23:15] But if Luke Raley's not in the lineup, not as many consistent names. Who else would it even be? Again, I know Dom Canzone's had a nice flash in the pan here, but I don't think it's gotten to the point where you're hitting him cleanup. The unfortunate thing about, especially this fifth spot, the guy with the second most played appearances in the five hole, whose name is not Randy or Rosarena, do you want to take a guess? Are you going to tell me this is Demo? No, that can't be right. Oh,

[00:23:45] I know who it is. It's Jorge Polanco. And Jorge Polanco, oh, it's not Polo? It's not. Donovan Solano? It's Mitch Garver. Again, he's been up a lot. The guy that until, like the last two weeks has performed, but until then had essentially been, you know, just relegated to the backup catcher because he could not, because the only home run he'd hit all season was off a position player. And this is what

[00:24:14] it comes back to, man. We're going to keep talking about trade deadline stuff over the next month, obviously, but can Ryan O'Hearn alone fix this team? I don't know. I like, I have my doubts. And by the way, you guys, Ryan O'Hearn just OPS 590 for the month of June. Ryan O'Hearn just had a really bad month after two hot ones. So we're about to learn, was this a total flash in the pan of two months for Ryan O'Hearn? And if that's the case, then the Mariners would acquire him just to not hit.

[00:24:43] There is not slam dunk solutions on this trade market. And the other thing about this situation, if we're just going to like narrow in on who else you would expect to hit behind Cal Raleigh in this lineup, the other guy we would think of, as you said, was Jorge Polanco. But Jorge Polanco, since May 1st, it has been a little bit better than it was in May, but not that much better. And they got him back in the field this week, actually, again. And it was

[00:25:13] not great. Yeah. It was not great in the field. So Jorge is still kind of limited. It's limited on where they can insert him in. And his offense has been among the 10 worst in baseball since May 1st at this point. When those are your options to hit 4th and 5th behind Cal Raleigh, if teams are going to start throwing up four fingers after those top three in the lineup hit, and then it's like, all right, we're going to let these guys try and beat us instead,

[00:25:43] and they're not very consistent, then you're going to continue to get the offense that you've had all season long. This changes if you call the Arizona Diamondbacks exactly, say, one month from now and give them an offer they can't refuse for Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor. Then you have your 5 and 6, or 4 and 5 hitters, maybe 5 and 6, depending on how you want to structure it. But that works out a whole lot better. But then what if the Diamondbacks say no?

[00:26:12] What if those guys aren't on the table? The D-backs aren't totally out of the wildcard race right now. I'll just say the same thing to you when you propose this question to me before we even started recording. I'll be as transparent with the listeners as I was with you before we hit record. If the Diamondbacks say no to that, they're fucked. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Where do you go? What if the Orioles want to send Ryan O'Hearn to a team not in the American League? Or just not the Mariners.

[00:26:42] It could be anybody. What if the Yankees want them? Mm-hmm. Yep. Yankees or... Astros? Yeah, that's another. Christian Walker isn't a great... No. And there was reports today that the Astros have been calling about Cedric Mullins. O'Hearn plays a little bit of outfield too. He could play a corner. He could DH. Oh boy. Yeah. I don't like how this looks. No. I don't. Regardless, we're going to have to watch the trade

[00:27:11] deadline play out before we can properly sit here and either complain or praise. Because right now all we can do is speculate. But here's what I will say. The Mariners went 13-14 in the month of May. After a great April, 16-9 in April, 13-14 in May. If they win tomorrow on Monday when this podcast episode comes out against a Royals team that is 30th in baseball and runs scored. Yes, they are last in baseball and runs scored.

[00:27:41] The Pirates this upcoming weekend are 28th in baseball and runs scored. Playing in one of the hardest parks to hit in in Major League Baseball. The pitching should look great this weekend. This week. Entire week. It should be awesome. Anyways, if the Mariners win against the Royals on Monday, they will also be 13-14 in the month of June after a hot start in April. If the Mariners go 13-14, well they can't go 13-14 in July because the All-Star breaks in there. But regardless,

[00:28:11] the equivalent of 13-14 in the month of July there will be 500 at the deadline. They'll be right in the pack but they'll be pretty much 500 at the deadline if they just do what they did the last two months and that's not where you want to be. And again, like you have a tough schedule coming up like you just talked about. So let's highlight the schedule for people. you know what? Sorry, you didn't highlight it yet. What am I saying? I'm getting ahead of my go. If you watched our social post here on Sunday, I did highlight it a little bit.

[00:28:40] So let's lay out where now more of the concern comes from when you take what we're seeing on the roster and then look at what the schedule comes up next for the Mariners as they approach the deadline. So let's go in order here. Starting with this week, you have a homestand that should be favorable to you. You should probably win four of the six games if not five of the six. Can I add something to that too? Sure. They're also getting lucky in this homestand because not only do the matchups favor them, not only are these two bad offensive rosters,

[00:29:09] but the Mariners miss Chris Bubich in this series who has been the Royals' best starter this year. Now, the Royals are throwing out some really good starters in general. The Royals pitching and rotation has been really good. But you do miss the best of their guys in Bubich in a four-game series. So you just got pretty lucky. And then this weekend against the Pirates, you also happen to miss some dude named Skeens. So those are two aces that you do not have to face. It's all the more reason you should be handedly winning these series.

[00:29:40] On top of, this subject came back up this weekend where I forget who it was, re-pointed out the fact the Mariners have now dropped to 20th in rotation ERA on the season. And now they're going to get a stretch here at home against three or two of the three worst scoring teams in baseball in a very favorable home environment and you would expect those guys to go out there and dominate. And again, at least win four of those games. I mean... Actually,

[00:30:11] sorry, I have my math wrong. They're playing seven games. They should win five of them. Let me say that. Yeah. And realistically, a six-in-one homestand should be absolutely in the ballpark. There is no reason they can't have a six-in-one homestand and you need one right now to get yourself back on track. But I will say, again, this Royals series, it's not going to be some cakewalk. I know they don't score, but you're getting Michael Walk on Monday, you're getting Noah Cameron on Wednesday who's been very good, and you get Seth Lugo

[00:30:40] on Thursday, who I know Bubich has been the best starter, but Lugo the last two years has been a hell of an arm in his own right. So, the Mariners aren't getting any cakewalks in this Royals series. I mean, I guess you get Michael Lorenz in Tuesday whose ERA is near five, but that's it. The rest of the Royals' arms are really good. The reason winning this week is so important is because if you go look at the series directly after this, that's where my worry starts to creep up at this point. After you play the Royals and Pirates

[00:31:10] at home, the Mariners will finish the first half after a much-deserved off day. Oh, and by the way, you're playing these seven games at home with a bullpen that is wiped out. There is no fresh arms available. They might have to DFA someone again this week. It might have to be a legit person if, like, if on Monday, who's starting tomorrow? Would it be, is Emerson starting tomorrow? I think it's Kirby. Or Kirby. So let's say Kirby, Kirby goes only five innings on Monday and you have to cover four more innings.

[00:31:40] It's, it's not good. That would not be good right there because the bullpen got way overused this weekend and barely had anyone available on Sunday to pitch into the 12th inning. Get through those seven games. You have an off day and then you're going to go on the road against the two best teams in the American League. You start with three against the Yankees and then you finish up with three against the Tigers where, if my brain math works out right here, you will be facing Tarek Skubel. Good luck. That's going into the All-Star break. Then you have the four days off.

[00:32:10] Off for some. Not for Cal Raleigh. He's going to be winning the Home Run Derby. Then right after that, you start the second half with the Houston Astros who, by the way, in the month of June have gained seven games on you. You started this month half a game up in first place. They are now six and a half games up on you. So you have three at home against the Astros and then you have the Brewers who are also having a good season in playoff position for three more at home.

[00:32:40] Then you go on the road for four games against the Angels in Anaheim, a place you have not won a series in two years. Two years! You haven't won, you haven't won, you haven't won the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Anaheim in two seasons! That's crazy. Once that series is over, the deadline's four days away. There is a real world this team is under 500 at the deadline and I hate to say that

[00:33:09] but we're trying to be realists here. There is a real world this is a sub 500 team at the deadline which is all the more reason when we say they need to go six and one on this homestand, they do because they've got to find some way to get some cushion for themselves before they go out on what's going to be an incredibly tough stretch leading up to the deadline. Again, you're going to see good arm after good arm in these series. This is what happens when you face playoff teams. You talk about the Yankees, you're going to like again, Freed, Rodan, etc. Like we don't know

[00:33:39] how exactly it's going to match up yet with start days but Yankees have a good rotation. You talked about seeing Scoobal. Lord forbid if the Mariners have to see Jacob Mizorowski Mizorowski. I mean, good luck with that. Or when you get to the Astros, you could face Frambo and Hunter Brown. When you get to the Brewers, yeah, like Mizorowski's. He threw a slider at 96 miles an hour last week. Yeah. So anyway, the point being with all this, yeah, he's, I mean, for those who haven't paid attention to Jacob Mizorowski yet,

[00:34:09] who's a rookie and he's only made a couple of starts, I mean, he's insane. TJ and I saw him at the Futures game two years ago here in Seattle. We talked about it with Pitching Ninja on our interview. We said, who the hell is this? And now we're seeing exactly who it is. Well, he matched up with Paul Skeens and made Paul Skeens look small. Dude, yeah, he, the Mariners do not have an easy road in the month of July is what we're getting at here. So this is why they really, really need this homestand to put together some wins and build themselves

[00:34:39] a little bit of ground because again, otherwise, there is a serious world. They're a sub 500 team at the trade deadline. And guess what? Like you've said, TJ, a bunch. This is year 10. It's year 10 of this regime. You can't be under 500 at the trade deadline. I want, I want them to be a defined buyer and contender at the deadline. I want them to believe in themselves that they are a winning baseball team and want to go out there and push for the playoffs. I can't, I can't again get to the deadline and they're like, oh,

[00:35:09] we'll buy and sell. We'll stock a couple of controllable pieces. We'll sell off someone who could bring us back something auxiliary. Maybe we'll buy someone for next year as well. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. That is, that is not allowed to happen. I, I don't want to get mad a month in advance. I don't want to do it because they go out there and they could trade for Suarez and Naylor. They could do it. They have more top 100 prospects than anyone. Please, please don't do that. When I looked at the schedule,

[00:35:39] I'm getting the PTSD that this might happen. And you're not unfortunately. Yeah. And you're not supposed to be getting mad on this podcast. You're the one that's supposed to balance me out. Imagine that post trade deadline show between the two of us if they do nothing and you're mad and you know I'm going to be mad and it's just going to say not just the recording day, a recording day where I'm guessing we will hop on right after all the moves have

[00:36:09] been made and there is going to be emotions flying if there is not significant like mountain, not mountains moving, but if there's not significant transactions at the deadline. And what I've said before is that if the Mariners are in position to sell for next year, in my opinion, I don't feel like if you're giving up on this season or even half giving up on the season in a buy or sell scenario that the people currently in charge should be making decisions for next year because frankly I didn't don't feel like

[00:36:39] they would deserve it at this point, but I'm looking at the month of July and this is where the draft like the draft throws another wrench in this and why they're not trades earlier. This works in a couple of different ways. Number one, the front office isn't thinking about trades right now. They're thinking about the draft in two weeks and who they're going to pick at number three overall and then they're going to go worry about trades and who they're going to go acquire for the final two months of the season. And I would imagine ownership is thinking the same thing too. It's like why would we make a decision on next year? We're focused on the draft for

[00:37:08] two weeks and then oh all of a sudden are we going to make a decision for next year based off of two weeks of play in action? Like if we were to make that decision before the deadline why would we also let them draft for us as well? You see what I'm getting at here? This is what like it's all like sort of chaotic into like a worst case scenario for me where it's like you get under 500 by the deadline and then all of a sudden it's like that's passed off as okay. I mean remember 2023 where it literally came down

[00:37:38] to a matter of games. The Mariners were in winning the series against the Diamondbacks. I was going to say so you beat me to it. They were in limbo about what to do and a matter of a couple of games was going to determine their entire trade deadline. Dom Canzone hits some C&I single back up the middle is all fired up beats the Mariners and that leads them to trade away Paul Seawals for Dom Canzone and Rojas and Bliss but like Dom Canzone essentially forced the Mariners to

[00:38:08] sell at that deadline. Well they would have sold harder remember if they lost that series. They thought about trading to Oscar. I thought they did lose that series. No they won two or three. Well okay. Yeah I mean thought about I think they tried to trade them and didn't get the package back they wanted. Yeah. At least they had a playoff appearance the year before to rest their hat on. They don't this year. Again

[00:38:39] we talked about at the beginning of the episode like they said the roster was good enough at the beginning of the season and if you're under 500 at the deadline it answers the question for us. Yeah. that the roster wasn't good enough but it's fine we were told there's no holes to fill or not many holes to fill so there wasn't. It seems like more and more like the more this expanded playoff format kind of goes along year by year

[00:39:08] the trade deadline just cannot be something you rely on anymore. There are not enough teams that are selling. No. Go look at the standings. Go look at the American League wildcard standings right now. There's like seven teams within three games of each other. Who the hell is selling? Again do your bulk work in the offseason. Don't don't spend ten million dollars say a coaching staff's going to change the whole roster and then you run this out there.

[00:39:38] Again it's funny that we're doing this when they just won a series but again this highlights the trends that we're seeing and the direction we feel like they're on and even winning two of three this weekend like we are just seeing too many red flags pop up again and again and again where it is leading to these conversations. Guess what? You mentioned how in 23 they had a playoff appearance the year before to hang their hat on? Yeah that's true. One it's also been

[00:40:08] three years since that and guess what? Like I ain't listening to that anymore because I'm not doing this 1995 thing all over again with 2022. Guess like I hate to be I hate to be blunt here but I'm about to be blunt. You got fucking swept out of the quarterfinals in the playoffs. Let's not throw a parade. Like people were fired up that year because you broke the drought and it seriously looked like the start of what was going to be a perennial contender and a team that was going

[00:40:37] to be extremely exciting. Instead you've gone backwards every single year and I don't want to hear anymore about getting swept out of the ALDS getting swept out of the quarterfinals. That ain't good enough in a five-year stretch when you've been in your competitive window you've made the playoffs once and it wasn't even a serious run. Like so don't tell me 2022 anymore because again this isn't going to be some reincarnated 1995 thing. I ain't having it like and the and on top of it the irony of like we're trying

[00:41:07] to wait the Astros out so you have your chance and now the Astros are just traded got rid of all their best players and are just as good. Think about it. Kyle Tucker gone. Bregman gone. Altuve starting to look old. Jordan barely played all year. Christian Javier has had Tommy John. They have had injuries in that rotation. Lance McCullers McCullers has come back and looked cooked. He doesn't look like he has much left in him anymore. But the

[00:41:37] Astros have found new life. Isak Paredes because he plays in a Mickey Mouse ballpark is hitting the cover off the ball. Cam Smith's been awesome. Their offense has been very good since May 1st and their rotation and bullpen have been lethal. Their bullpen is one of the best bullpens in baseball since May 1st. They strike the world out. They have totally reincarnated themselves from what they've lost in the old guard and are still sitting way on top of the Mariners.

[00:42:06] Like here we are. From a pure talent perspective, the Mariners should not be seven games back from the Houston Astros at this time next month. No. No way. But they may be because they have a ridiculous schedule coming up. And let me say this last thing before we feel like we're starting to reach the tail end of this combo. When I say the Mariners have gone backwards every year, that's not an exaggeration.

[00:42:36] I mean, in 21 and 22, you won 90 games. I think everybody knew 21 was a bit of a fluke. 22 was much more real. 23, you missed the playoffs. You win 88 games. That team had talent, but they just missed because they got too hot too late. They didn't do enough in the first three months of the year. Honestly, four months. And they had bad luck in extra innings because of the way they were constructed and they struck out too much. Right. But you know what? That was an offense that had some very good traits to it, a rotation that was

[00:43:06] very, very good, and a bullpen that was lethal. They just happened to have some bad luck that year in what was a very good AL West and a very good American League that year and missed out. 2024, you had an elite rotation, but the rest of the roster had a laundry list of issues and you missed the playoffs. You win 86 games or 85 last year. Yeah. Now in 2025, you're taking another step back. There is no defined premier facet of

[00:43:36] this roster. There's no part of this roster that's anchoring the team aside from your catcher, and that's not a whole part of the roster. That's one player. It's going backwards and backwards and backwards. Again, we're in year 10 of this regime. Right now, the best unit on this team, ironically, Lyle, for what we have said and what we talked about actually a lot with hyphen, hint, hint, on our upcoming podcast on Wednesday, by the way, we had a fantastic time with Ryan

[00:44:05] Roland-Smith on this past Friday. The day before we had our live show at the Hall & Occidental, we went to the Hall on Occidental with Ryan Roland-Smith, we recorded an episode of The Top Step, we believe it will air on Rootsports, don't know when on Rootsports it will air, that episode that will drop this Friday, so that'll be really fun over on his channel, but we also taped an interview with him for us, that will be out on Wednesday, and we talked about the Mariners need for a bullpen arm, but ironically, the best

[00:44:35] performing unit this year for the Mariners has been their bullpen, I think it's 11th, they're 11th in ERA as a bullpen right now, that's the best right now, a above average, still outside of the top third though unit in all of baseball, and then you look at the rest of the roster, and this is a credit to you because we were talking about it before we started recording, but I'll read the numbers for you, since May 1st, the Mariners are 18th in run scored,

[00:45:05] they're 20th in rotation ERA, they're 9th in bullpen PRA, so there's that area of the team pulling its weight and being the best part of the roster right now, but it's not elite, no, it's not elite, it's solid, we know it's not elite, because we've seen what happens when you get past Brash, Munoz, and Spire, so yeah, it's above average, but that's the only facet of your roster that's really above average right now, because then when you get to defense and you look at outs above average, 22nd, so let me

[00:45:35] say it again, 18th in run scored, 20th in rotation in ERA, 9th in bullpen ERA, 22nd in outs above average, mid, mid, mid, mid, mid, that's what I can say about that. And that's not even factoring in, I will, let's give you a couple minutes on this, because I know you have some stuff to fire off about this, and it was some of the decisions this weekend were also not good. The process behind some of the decisions on utilizing the roster is also not good, so when you combine the

[00:46:04] stats with how the stats are used, it doesn't work out that well. It is struggling to, again, find a strength in any facet that you can. Add on to all those things, it's like, alright, we would think at some points during Scott Service's tenure, not all the points, but some points, especially during 2022 and 2021, his decisions were really good. Him and the front office worked really well together to put guys in positions to succeed. That's not

[00:46:34] happening as much this year, I don't think. And that is another area where you say this is also just not good enough. It might be average, it might be below average depending on who you ask, but it's not helping you at all to lift up any of the other parts of your teams that are also not pulling their weight. Where do you even want to start with this on Sunday? I mean, I know they won, but dude,

[00:47:03] when they got to extra innings, I don't know what on earth we were watching with some of the decisions that were getting made. So, first off, you get to extra innings, Cal's out there on second base. Keep in mind, Cal Raleigh is DH-ing here on Sunday. He's not behind the plate, you don't have to burn your catcher, he's DH-ing. He gets to second base. You have a chance to push a couple runs across. And again, it's the 10th inning.

[00:47:33] If you're playing to win, you're not expecting Cal Raleigh to get up again and hit in the 12th or 13th inning anyway. So you have Miles Mastroboni sitting on your bench, they don't pinch run him for Cal, so that was head scratching in its own right. Then there's a single to left field where Julio does score. Christopher Negron sends Cal around third and heading home on a ball that was hit to very, very short left field. So that wasn't even Dan Wilson, but that was head scratching in its own right to send

[00:48:03] Cal on that, who we know doesn't really have speed. But he gets sent home, he gets thrown out at the plate, which, again, that's like a coaching staff thing combined between Dan not pinch running Mastro and then Negron still sending Cal. But then to add on top of that, they show the replay, and if Cal Raleigh wasn't safe, the replay showed that it was pretty damn close to the point where it would absolutely warrant a review. But the Mariners didn't even challenge it. Now, they did use a

[00:48:33] challenge earlier in the ninth inning, don't you get one challenge back in extra innings, or am I wrong on that? That I don't know, but whether or not you have a challenge, you can go to the crew chief and ask if they will do a crew chief review. Without challenges, you can go to them and ask. Do you have a challenge in extra innings, MLB? In Major League Baseball, teams do not receive extra challenges in extra innings. Okay, so anyway, you didn't have the extra challenge, but you made the point that you could go ask for an umpire review.

[00:49:03] Also, you used that challenge in the ninth inning that wasn't very close. Now I'm blanking on what it is, but why am I blanking on what the challenge they made was in the ninth inning? Whatever they were looking at, it wasn't close. Oh, it was when Cole Young didn't get the tag down on the stolen base. And they missed the tag. They missed the tag, they challenged it, it wasn't close, they don't win the challenge, and they burned it. So when they could have used that challenge in extra innings, they didn't on a play that wasn't very close. I don't know

[00:49:33] if the Mariners thought that, oh, let's just burn it because it's the ninth inning, you might as well use it, but then there was a situation you needed that challenge and didn't use it. That is point number one. point number one as he talks for three consecutive minutes. Okay, point number two. Corey Seager ties the game on a nuke the opposite way in the bottom of the tenth when it's 3-0. You could just put the best hitter on the team on first

[00:50:02] base who's already hit multiple home runs in this series, but no, he got served up a cookie and tied the game. I don't know why in that situation you're bothering pitching to the guy. I understand it puts the tying run on base and puts the winning run at the plate. I'm still taking my chance with Marcus Semien who's had a tough year and anybody else in that Rangers lineup coming up. Adult East was next who has also had a tough year and are both right handed. Very tough year. Favors the righty-righty matchup.

[00:50:32] And again, it was already 3-0 to Seager. So either you're going to be pounding fastballs right in his wheelhouse to try to get back in the count or you're just going to put him on first base and say, okay, let's have somebody else beat us. No, instead you let Corey Seager swing because you gave him a cookie and he tied the game. So there was that. There was the Cal decision. There was a decision to bunt J.P. Crawford in the 11th inning when essentially the Mariners have, are we going to call it, I mean, how many reliable bats do we want to call

[00:51:02] the Mariners is having right now? Is it two, three? Cal and J.P.? J.P.'s one of them. Reliable. Let's say four. Okay, Cal, J.P., who Julio, Randy. Julio and Randy. All right. Occasionally, sometimes Luke Raley, sometimes Dom Canzone, but we'll do four. Point being, I think Canzone's got to play a little bit more before he earns it, but that's fine. I would stick with what you originally said. I was also the one who

[00:51:31] came on this podcast last week and was like, well, when you get to the trade deadline and you're looking around the Mariners diamond, you're looking at the bats, it's like, are they bad? No, and I went to about seven positions and said, no, they're not bad, so I don't want to totally turn that on myself. I see. Okay, anyway, it is one thing. As everybody knows, I don't want to see a single bunt dropped in the game of baseball ever. However, the one time I will not scream and curse and throw

[00:52:01] things is if you are bunting with the bottom of your order in extra innings in the bottom half of an inning when you're at home and want to get the runner from second to third. So Mariners example. And the game's tied. And the game's tied. So for a Mariners example, if it is tied at home in the tenth inning, you have Ben Williamson up in the ninth spot and there's a runner on second with nobody out, you bunt him over to third and that brings up JP, Julio, Cal, et cetera. I don't love it. It's the one time where I'll

[00:52:31] put up with it. When you are on the road and trying to score runs and build up a serious lead against the team that's given you fits all weekend, you are trying to play for the big inning when you're on the road. It makes no sense in any way whatsoever to try to manufacture a run in general in extra innings when you're a road team and trying to get the runner in from second because the other team gets a runner at second anyway too. But when you are the Mariners,

[00:53:01] you have one of your best hitters up, your bullpen is wiped out to use your terminology, and the Rangers have the good bats of the order coming up later in that inning. Well, oh, maybe it was the inning before whatever. Forget that last part. When you are on the road, you have one of your best hitters up and you are trying to play for a serious lead and you bunt the guy over? No. No. That, like, never. Never, ever, ever, ever, ever.

[00:53:31] Like, I don't understand or comprehend that strategy in any way. Playing for one run in extra innings when you have a cooked bullpen who's been heavily taxed and runs have come at a premium all weekend, why on earth would you play to manufacture a run? By the way, they didn't score that inning. It was the next inning they scored. I don't have an answer for you, dude. Like, these are mind-boggling decisions. Again, I know not everybody loves Service's decision making always,

[00:54:01] but like you said, 21, 22, and 23, he really did put guys in some very good positions to succeed. And, even if you didn't always agree with what Scott did, we keep talking about this, there was always a process behind why. Usually post-game, you would get an explanation from Service on what he was thinking, and you can make out some of the logic behind it. I don't have any rhyme or reason for what's going on.

[00:54:30] I don't know if it was Dan that called that bunt, or JP did it on his own. Either way, not good. At all. Doesn't feel like the appropriate process and message got into the strategy of the moment and what's at stake. this team has literally won all its games when they hit home runs. When they walk and hit home runs, they win games. Why is one of your best hitters dropping down a stupid bunt? I don't know. Is there anything else on your list? Because we do have

[00:55:00] a spotlight to get to. I mean, they also could have pinch hit Mastro Boney for Williamson in that 10th inning too, but they didn't do that. We don't have to spend that much time on that. That was not as big of a difference. No, and that's why I'm not going to spend that much time on it. But the other three between not pinch running Mastro for Cal, between letting Seager have a cookie 3-0, and then trying to bunt J.P. Crawford in the 11th inning, I don't know. I've got nothing. I legitimately have nothing. Well, we can end

[00:55:29] this episode on a bit more of a positive note, Lyle. Let's get to our number six MLB draft spotlight. Perhaps the best college bat in this entire class, which I think will raise people's eyebrows. Yeah. Yeah. How about Ivor Arquette? 6'5", 220, Oregon State shortstop. Go Beavs. Go Beavs. I said Oregon State. I said go Beavs. Oh, you said go Beavs. Got it. Well, yes, go Beavs. Also, go Huskies, because he played for

[00:55:58] two years at UW. Yeah. So once Jason Kelly, the old UW coach, left, Arquette transferred to Oregon State, where he had his biggest year. He blasted 19 bombs for the Beavers this past year. He had exit velocities that were pretty ridiculous at times. Now, that'll come down a little bit once he switches to Woodbat. But, hits the ball hard, very projectable, in a lot of ways. 6'5", 220, like, really good build for a shortstop and has a pretty strong arm. So, there is

[00:56:28] some groundwork here that sticks out immediately. It's a very well-rounded profile from a hit, from a defense, from a physicality standpoint. You do see his size, and you would think, okay, he's probably a future third baseman. As of right now, it seems like scouts think he'll stick at shortstop, that he has the mobility, he has the fluidness to play shortstop. And it's been shown that you can do it. We've talked about Corey Seager plenty this episode. Corey Seager's that big.

[00:56:57] Carlos Correa is pretty big as well. Troy Tillowiczki was that big. It's possible. I am naming some of the best players in baseball when I mention that, and I don't want to put Iva Arquette on that pedestal just yet. But if the Mariners take him that three, at three, and they decide his bat is the one that's worth it, that's what they probably think he's going to be when he makes it up to the big league level. Hey, we would want this guy at either shortstop or third base, and he's going to come up and he's going to absolutely mash because he has the profile to be among the best

[00:57:26] offensive players in baseball. He walks. There is some swing and miss in his game, but he's also got, remember, the bigger you are, the bigger strike zone you have, so it's sometimes a little tough to totally control all of that area. That's what makes what Aaron Judge and John Carlos Stanton for the past 10 years that impressive because they have this enormous strike zone, and yet they're still able to be very quality offensive players for it. Iva Arquette's not quite that, but it's still very

[00:57:56] impressive what he's able to do from such a well-rounded offensive profile. Do you think his ceiling is actually one of the best players in baseball? No. Okay. But I'm not a scout. I don't really buy that either. So what I was going to say here about Iva Arquette is ultimately this feels like what would be a pretty safe pick. If the Mariners take Iva Arquette, you are banking on a high floor, you are banking on a guy that should put up

[00:58:25] some level of production at the major league level and should help a roster once he gets there in the long term. My question here is as we really get into the nitty-gritty of this now, like we previewed on the last episode, when you get into the top six, there's not that much of a gap between all of them, and it gets into a conversation of the Mariners could seriously take any of these guys. The Mariners could seriously take Iva Arquette. This is a real name and a real potential here at the third pick. I guess my only question

[00:58:55] here with Iva is, for as good a year as he had, for the fact he does have power potential and could be a 25-home ring guy in the big leagues, how high is the ceiling? I think you know the floor is pretty safe, and ultimately this would be a pretty safe pick if you make it. Is it as high as some of the guys we'll get to in the next, in the upcoming episodes leading up to the draft? And that's where I start to have the question, because I don't think his ceiling is quite as high as some other guys. I think if he had been in

[00:59:24] some other drafts in years that the class was a little heavier, I think you'd see him more go in the 15-ish range rather than the top five range, and I just wonder if there is more of an opportunity to take a true swing on somebody else like we keep talking about with this pick. I feel like there would be a pretty decent swing with Iva Arquette. Like, he is the best college bat in the draft. If the Mariners want a college bat, he's the bat, he's the pick. But are there high school bats that we're going to preview later here that may have an even higher ceiling? They might be better

[00:59:54] athletes, and they might accumulate more war and be a more well-rounded baseball player than Iva Arquette, but if we're just talking about him stepping in the batter's box, it's pretty well rounded. Yeah, he's going to be older than, say, like an Ethan Holiday. He's going to be older than Eli Willits when he's stepping in the box, and he's a few years, quote unquote, behind them. Because he went to college, and those guys are going to go straight from high school into pro ball. But it's a pretty

[01:00:22] ridiculous all-fields power profile, a plus-hit tool, backspins the ball, high exit velocities. What else do you want? What else would you want? It just feels like there's some reasons he's not the consensus number one pick, and I think some of it has to do with the swing and miss. I don't think he's an overly ridiculous athlete. Like, again, he'll stick at shortstop. How great will his shortstop defense be at the big league level? Again, only time will tell. If the Mariners take

[01:00:52] Ivar Kett, let me be very clear. I will be happy with the pick. I will not be mad in any way, shape, or form if the Mariners take Ivar Kett with their third pick. Because it's a good pick. I just keep talking about this idea of truly try to shoot for a star with this pick. And I think if you were to do that, there are a couple upcoming names where you might have a higher floor, or sorry, a higher ceiling potential than what Ivar Kett might bring you. So it just becomes about if the Mariners would rather draft for lower potential

[01:01:22] floor and higher potential ceiling, or a higher floor with Ivar Kett with a ceiling that might not be quite as high. And that's a fair point. A lot will depend, as you know, who's going to be around at three. And maybe the Mariners only think one other guy has a higher ceiling than Ivar Kett that they'd be willing to take at three. If they take our Kett at three, this is likely a full slot value pick. Again, when you get to these top six, we're getting in the range of this is who the Mariners could seriously take.

[01:01:50] If they take our Kett at three, they're not really going to be under slotting him. And if they did, it would be very, very minimal. They're not making some big splash at the end of the first round. Like Ivar Kett's their pick at three. That means that's their guy. And look, anytime someone can come to the University Washington and hit at that ballpark and put up a 900 OPS and hit the ball as hard as he did. I mean, it is impressive. You and I have been to that ballpark. I don't know how anyone hits at that park. They play on the water. The wind blows straight in.

[01:02:19] It's freezing cold most of the year. I don't get it. Yeah. You want to talk about T-Mobile being a tough park to play and they're way farther than the water compared to UW. I mean, you clear the fence at Husky ballpark and you are what? A hundred feet from the water? Yeah. And there's no stands or triple decks to block out the wind. Not at all. So yes, again, let me say it. We are now getting into the very nitty gritty of this profile or sorry of these spotlights.

[01:02:49] They, these are all intriguing names where if the Mariners took any of these six guys upcoming, I think we're going to be pretty excited. All we want to do is present both sides of what each player could bring. And with Ivar Kett, look, there may be some guys with slightly higher ceilings, but if the Mariners make him their pick, he's got a chance to be a 20 to 25 home run shortstop in the show who's six foot five and has the chance to develop into even more power than he's got. So yes, of course, it's an intriguing profile. Gosh, I can't wait for the

[01:03:18] draft two weeks away, two weeks. I can't wait to be there because we'll get to see a live and react live. I'm sure we'll do a post about it right after they make the pick. That is, that is going to be fun. And that is our number six MLB draft spotlight. Unfortunately, no, uh, no switch pitchers to react to this year, but that's all right. Still fun. Not this year, but that's okay. Maybe post post talking about Durangelo last year after the draft did, did pretty well. No, it was great. People loved it. We had a buddy who was

[01:03:47] staying in our hotel room with us and he was like, what am I listening to right now? You guys just got all fired up and like yelling into the mic for 30 minutes about some switch pitcher. It's like, yeah, it's like dude, it's not even on the Mariners yet. It's like, dude, have you watched Durangelo? Dude's an animal. He's a stud. Like, yeah. So I can't, I can't wait for this pick. Like if we were hyped up about Durangelo last year, picking in the mid teens, how are we going to be at the third pick? I guess we'll find out. It depends on who they pick.

[01:04:17] I would say. Anyway, that's Ivar Kett. Now we're going to, we're getting into the top five. We got five more episodes before the draft. Yeah, it's exciting, man. We're getting really close. And the further we get down on this list of profiles, the more excited we're going to get. So yeah, that's Ivar Kett at six. And that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to find all of our stuff, it's over at our website. All of it. Marinelayerpod.com between our merch.

[01:04:47] Go get your merch. We've got brand new hats on the site, which TJ is wearing. We've also got T-shirts, sweatshirts, long sleeve shirts, bunch of different stuff, bunch of different colors. We'd love to see you wearing it around the ballpark. We'd love to see you wearing it around town. It's been awesome to see it so far. So go get your live show. Come wear it at the live show. Come wear it at the live show. Oh, that too. That too. Yeah. We had people wearing it at the live show this week. This weekend. It was great. It is so cool to see. Yeah. So, hey, go get your merch. We've loved wearing it. And I genuinely, this is, this is talking straight from the heart.

[01:05:16] I think it's really good quality stuff. Like we genuinely enjoy wearing it. So yeah, that's all over at our site. Patreon's all over our site. If you want to get involved, you want to subscribe, you want to get on some monthly calls with us, send some mailbag questions. Those are some of the perks. Again, MarinelayerPod.com along with all of our episodes, audio and video. It's all a one-stop shop. You can also find us over on social media everywhere at MarinelayerPod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in.

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