Lyle and TJ welcome Joe Doyle of Over-Slot to discuss Mariners Spring Training, standout prospects, what the Mariners could do in the July draft, and more.
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00:00 --> 00:04 [SPEAKER_01]: Hey Marine Lair podcast listeners, we're on the lookout for 2026 season sponsors.
00:04 --> 00:09 [SPEAKER_01]: If you own or work for a business, reach us by email, marinelairpod at gmail.com.
00:09 --> 00:19 [SPEAKER_01]: But when episode number 366 of the Marine Lair podcast, we welcome on our friend Jo Doyle to talk Mariners Spring Training, Storylines, Prospects, and a whole bunch more.
00:20 --> 00:49 [SPEAKER_00]: reminder to you guys if you're listening to these episodes do us a big favor just go download them you can also go rate and review five stars on Apple and Spotify it's a huge help to the show if you do same idea over on YouTube go hit subscribe it's the best way to support the channel also drop a like on the video leave us a comment and you can find us on our website marinelayerpod.com or all of our merch is there we love seeing you guys where the merch you can go get it over in our site our patreon's there and then you can go check us out all on social media at marinelayerpod.
00:49 --> 00:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's get it rolling.
01:04 --> 01:27 [SPEAKER_01]: And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Lair podcast part of the just Facebook podcast network recording here on Tuesday evening February 17 There are plenty of fun Maristopics to talk about but we talk about them all with Joe Doyle in this interview of fantastic interview as I mentioned in the episode for those of you that might remember He's our first guest, so he's always always been great to us
01:27 --> 01:35 [SPEAKER_00]: First one, and I'm pretty sure he's got a pretty good track ahead of everybody else in terms of most recurring guests.
01:35 --> 01:35 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
01:35 --> 01:38 [SPEAKER_00]: I think this is roughly his...
01:39 --> 01:45 [SPEAKER_00]: fifth or six the parents on the show maybe more towards six and for good reason he is a great guest.
01:45 --> 01:58 [SPEAKER_00]: I would say the only real storyline we didn't get into with Joe that's pressing right now in spring training and there's not that much to talk about with it is Bryce Miller said he didn't get any surgery about all the with all the bone spurs and his elbow but
01:58 --> 02:04 [SPEAKER_00]: he had already mentioned I think before this that it was seeming like that may not be the case that he just may not need it.
02:04 --> 02:09 [SPEAKER_00]: So we want to talk about that last season at the end of the year.
02:09 --> 02:09 [SPEAKER_00]: Bryce.
02:10 --> 02:11 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, or Joe.
02:11 --> 02:17 [SPEAKER_00]: No, Bryce about that you he had mentioned that I'm not totally sure I'm going to need it or not and he ended up not needing it.
02:18 --> 02:19 [SPEAKER_01]: We do talk about it with Joe a little bit.
02:19 --> 02:32 [SPEAKER_01]: I guess I didn't get to give my take in that My 32nd spiel on that would be like it is Bryce's decision and we're honestly, honestly, no none of us are going to know
02:32 --> 02:36 [SPEAKER_01]: If it's the right decision or not, until they play the season, we see how healthy he looks.
02:36 --> 02:47 [SPEAKER_01]: If he starts his elbow starts flaring up again, and these little bone chips in his elbow start causing him a lot of havoc, then people will be like, okay, well, maybe it wasn't the right decision.
02:48 --> 02:49 [SPEAKER_01]: Right City feels good right now.
02:49 --> 02:54 [SPEAKER_01]: He pitched at the end of the season with the bone chips any city felt fine.
02:54 --> 02:58 [SPEAKER_01]: So if he thinks he's going to manage it, okay, then more power to him,
02:58 --> 03:00 [SPEAKER_01]: only time is going to tell whether or not he made the right decision.
03:01 --> 03:06 [SPEAKER_00]: And Keith Meister, the doctor who has worked with Bryce and is a huge doctor in the game of baseball.
03:06 --> 03:08 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he knows a heck of a lot more than us.
03:08 --> 03:10 [SPEAKER_00]: So we will trust his judgment.
03:10 --> 03:11 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we will trust that.
03:12 --> 03:14 [SPEAKER_01]: You'll hear that and a whole lot more with Joe Doyle.
03:14 --> 03:15 [SPEAKER_01]: We won't keep you guys any longer.
03:15 --> 03:17 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's get you to the interview with Joe Doyle.
03:21 --> 03:25 [SPEAKER_01]: Alright, we've got our friend Joe Doyle on with us the OG guest of this podcast.
03:25 --> 03:27 [SPEAKER_01]: Joe, thanks for coming on with us.
03:28 --> 03:32 [SPEAKER_01]: Which baseball season makes you the most excited I'm curious because you do, you do the whole gamut.
03:32 --> 03:39 [SPEAKER_01]: You college, you spend a lot of time looking at the minor leagues, you look at the draft of the bunch, but we also got the big leagueers coming up, so I'm curious which one.
03:40 --> 03:43 [SPEAKER_02]: college baseball gets me more excited than anything.
03:44 --> 03:56 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, like, the storylines that come with college baseball, the freshman that come with college baseball, the new hope for the next draft that's coming up, I always get excited for college baseball.
03:56 --> 04:00 [SPEAKER_02]: And then the other thing is I don't have the like, fan allegiance.
04:00 --> 04:02 [SPEAKER_02]: to schools in college baseball.
04:02 --> 04:12 [SPEAKER_02]: I can kind of sit back and watch it from an unbiased lens, whereas the expectations of the mariners season obviously weighs on me a little bit more than anything in college.
04:12 --> 04:13 [SPEAKER_02]: So I think college.
04:15 --> 04:15 [SPEAKER_00]: I love it.
04:15 --> 04:17 [SPEAKER_00]: And the celebrations in college are second and none.
04:18 --> 04:23 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you know, someone asked me on Twitter why they should get interested in college.
04:23 --> 04:28 [SPEAKER_02]: And I was like, well, it's just like, it's this great product that has a better playoff system than major league baseball.
04:29 --> 04:36 [SPEAKER_02]: It's not bastardized by corporate America and money and revenue and payrolls and collective bargaining and all these different things.
04:37 --> 04:47 [SPEAKER_02]: And so there's still even though the transfer portal and NIL has taken a little bit of the innocence away from college athletics, I still see college baseball as this like,
04:47 --> 04:52 [SPEAKER_02]: a bunch of guys playing for their school, playing for the guy next to them, and that's it.
04:53 --> 04:56 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think there's like an innocence that comes with that that I really enjoy.
04:56 --> 05:03 [SPEAKER_01]: It's sort of like the last major college sport that has not been professionalized, I would say, right?
05:03 --> 05:05 [SPEAKER_01]: I think is that a fair way to put it?
05:05 --> 05:21 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, there's there's not nearly as much money in NIO and like free agency if you will with college baseball like the top programs in the country are spending like a million and a half on their rosters But 95% of the schools in division one baseball are spending less than $250.
05:21 --> 05:28 [SPEAKER_02]: So that delta between the have's and the have's not have not in terms of what teams are paying their players.
05:29 --> 05:31 [SPEAKER_02]: Still makes for reasonably
05:31 --> 05:43 [SPEAKER_02]: level playing field and I think there's still a lot of value that can be had in college baseball when it comes to player development and recruiting and scouting and so because of that it's just it's interesting to me every single year.
05:43 --> 05:44 [SPEAKER_02]: I look forward to it.
05:45 --> 05:52 [SPEAKER_01]: Before we get into any of this mariner stuff while we're on the topic of college baseball, the mariner's will be picking at number 24 in this upcoming July draft.
05:52 --> 05:58 [SPEAKER_01]: Give the people a couple of names to look out for of who they should watch this college baseball season.
05:58 --> 06:01 [SPEAKER_01]: That could be a mariner by the time they pick in July.
06:02 --> 06:03 [SPEAKER_01]: That's a great question.
06:05 --> 06:15 [SPEAKER_02]: With WRC Apple is at right now in their competitive window and with contracts, you guys talk about it all the time on your podcast, despite having Ryan Sloan and Kate Anderson, I still think they're going to go for pitching.
06:15 --> 06:27 [SPEAKER_02]: I still think they're going to try and land someone that they can develop and is reasonably quick to the major leagues and can supplement the team in 2028, 2029 and beyond if some of these arms start to depart.
06:28 --> 06:34 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm falling more and more in love with Mason Edwards, a left-handed pitcher out of USC Southern California.
06:35 --> 06:40 [SPEAKER_02]: Up to 96 tons of carry on the fastball, big, big, breaking ball.
06:41 --> 06:49 [SPEAKER_02]: Like he's the type of guy that I think they've done, well with Owen Kermkowski at Arizona's another name that I would look for, but this is definitely a different year, guys.
06:49 --> 06:53 [SPEAKER_02]: Like Seattle is picking 24th, which is lower than
06:53 --> 06:58 [SPEAKER_02]: from what I can recall, it's the lowest they've picked in a very, very long time.
06:58 --> 07:04 [SPEAKER_02]: So, yeah, they're not going to have as many options as usual, but I still think pitching is where they'll lean.
07:05 --> 07:06 [SPEAKER_00]: Interesting.
07:06 --> 07:06 [SPEAKER_00]: All right.
07:07 --> 07:12 [SPEAKER_00]: This is my last last draft question for you before we get to a lot of Mariners talk and some of those store lines out of spring training.
07:12 --> 07:18 [SPEAKER_00]: But I am just curious and this will be up the alley of anybody that follows the draft and follows college baseball a little bit.
07:18 --> 07:19 [SPEAKER_00]: But,
07:19 --> 07:21 [SPEAKER_00]: Roch Chilowski won.
07:21 --> 07:29 [SPEAKER_00]: He's obviously not going to be there when the Mariners pick, but where does he rank among number one picks or potential number one picks in terms of talent in a draft class?
07:31 --> 07:32 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, a lot of people have talked about this.
07:32 --> 07:34 [SPEAKER_02]: I've talked about this on my podcast.
07:34 --> 07:41 [SPEAKER_02]: He is as surefire a success at the next level as anyone that has come through in a long time.
07:41 --> 07:44 [SPEAKER_02]: As since, you know, Adley Ruchman is one that comes to mind.
07:44 --> 07:47 [SPEAKER_02]: He was a surefire one-one pick in 2019.
07:48 --> 07:50 [SPEAKER_02]: You look back at like Dan's B. Swanson in 2011.
07:50 --> 07:52 [SPEAKER_02]: You go to the Bryce Harper's in 2010.
07:54 --> 07:56 [SPEAKER_02]: He's awesome.
07:56 --> 07:57 [SPEAKER_02]: He is a,
07:57 --> 08:05 [SPEAKER_02]: He is a very, very complete player with power and a hit tool and the only thing he really isn't exceptional at is running.
08:07 --> 08:19 [SPEAKER_02]: So in terms of, you know, the next college performer who is going to go from getting drafted in July and perhaps being in the big leagues within 12 months of his draft date, I think Shalowski's next.
08:21 --> 08:26 [SPEAKER_01]: First Mariners topic is we shift to spring training in some of
08:27 --> 08:34 [SPEAKER_01]: I just got to ask, how much stock can we put in live ad bats between prospects and bigleegers?
08:35 --> 08:36 [SPEAKER_01]: In February?
08:37 --> 08:37 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
08:37 --> 08:38 [SPEAKER_02]: None.
08:40 --> 08:46 [SPEAKER_02]: Like, I'm so like, hey, at the end of the day, I think a lot of people forget the hitters haven't seen live pitching in four months.
08:46 --> 09:03 [SPEAKER_02]: Like once the last time you guys took two weeks off from a video game and picked it up and thought you were just as good as you were or you know Once the last time while when's the last time you went to the batting cages and just like it you picked it up just like that right like Everyone's very cold everyone's really rusty that all being said
09:04 --> 09:11 [SPEAKER_02]: like Kate Anderson still has really good stuff and you can't fake 99 miles an hour like Ryan Sloan did.
09:11 --> 09:13 [SPEAKER_02]: So does there stuff look great?
09:13 --> 09:17 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, is it is it obviously big lead caliber to a certain degree?
09:17 --> 09:26 [SPEAKER_02]: Definitely, but at the same time I would just caution like these hitters even the all stars, even the Julios, the Cal Rollies, the guys who
09:26 --> 09:28 [SPEAKER_02]: have been to all-star games and played in the ALCS.
09:28 --> 09:32 [SPEAKER_02]: They haven't seen pitching in a lot of cases live pitching since October.
09:34 --> 09:35 [SPEAKER_02]: So everyone's very, very rusty.
09:35 --> 09:47 [SPEAKER_00]: Everyone's just getting their reps. That may be a little bit of a slap in the face and a little bit of a let down for people that were saying, well, the marriage might have to just trade some of these starters so you can let Sloan and Anderson come up in May, June.
09:47 --> 09:50 [SPEAKER_00]: I was like, guys, let's pump the brakes slightly.
09:51 --> 09:52 [SPEAKER_00]: Just slightly on those things.
09:53 --> 09:54 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we'll ask you this.
09:54 --> 10:07 [SPEAKER_00]: What do you think is a reasonable timeline for those guys with TJ and I said was we guessed for both of them at some point in twenty twenty seven with an outside chance they could pitch out of the bullpen in October of twenty six if everything goes perfect.
10:07 --> 10:08 [SPEAKER_00]: But what's your take on that?
10:08 --> 10:12 [SPEAKER_02]: I think Cade could be in the big leagues in twenty twenty six as a starter.
10:13 --> 10:14 [SPEAKER_02]: I think it's probably.
10:14 --> 10:23 [SPEAKER_02]: more dangerous to assume that your starting pitchers are going to stay healthy all year than it is to, you know, just assume that they're going to pitch out of the bullpen.
10:24 --> 10:26 [SPEAKER_02]: So Seattle is going to need good arms.
10:26 --> 10:27 [SPEAKER_02]: Kate is going to go straight.
10:28 --> 10:28 [SPEAKER_02]: This is my understanding.
10:28 --> 10:30 [SPEAKER_02]: I think Kate Anderson's going to go straight to Arkansas.
10:31 --> 10:33 [SPEAKER_02]: I think Ryan Sloan is not going to be far behind him.
10:34 --> 10:36 [SPEAKER_02]: Kate is pitched in the SEC.
10:36 --> 10:38 [SPEAKER_02]: He's pitched against advanced hitters.
10:39 --> 10:41 [SPEAKER_02]: He's obviously a great striker
10:41 --> 10:57 [SPEAKER_02]: But I just think, you know, especially with the luck that this organization has had over the last three years with keeping guys healthy, it started to deteriorate a little bit in 2025 we saw with Logan and you know, Georgia's slow start and Bryce's elbow.
10:57 --> 10:59 [SPEAKER_02]: I think I put it this way.
11:00 --> 11:09 [SPEAKER_02]: I would have a hard time saying there's not three arms that are better than K to Anderson that are waiting in their wings right now to pitch in the big league.
11:09 --> 11:15 [SPEAKER_02]: So I told you guys after he got drafted, the biggest thing that he needed to do was he needed to put on 10 to 12 pounds.
11:15 --> 11:21 [SPEAKER_02]: He needed to get more physical pitching that many innings in 2026 is going to be a workload on the body.
11:21 --> 11:23 [SPEAKER_02]: It sounds as though he's gotten bigger.
11:24 --> 11:41 [SPEAKER_02]: So I think he's going to be first up if there is a we're not first up, but I think he would be reasonably quick choice if there's a couple of injuries in the rotation and then, you know, depending on where Ryan Sloan is with his fast ball value in terms of, you know, commanding both shapes obviously the sweeper and the change up for awesome.
11:42 --> 11:43 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't think he could be far behind either.
11:43 --> 11:49 [SPEAKER_02]: I think both of these guys could pitch in the rotation for the Seattle Mariners late in the summer if they deal with injuries.
11:50 --> 12:02 [SPEAKER_01]: is slung and have enough innings at that point like my wonders like he's still he's still I think has more developing to do than kanderson i think because he just hasn't thrown as many innings in his adult life is kanderson has
12:03 --> 12:11 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, he's going to throw like 120 innings this year, 120 innings even enough for him to be ready to pitch in the big leagues.
12:11 --> 12:12 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he's going to throw more than that.
12:12 --> 12:14 [SPEAKER_02]: He threw 82 last year.
12:14 --> 12:16 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he could make the jump to 135, 140 innings.
12:17 --> 12:24 [SPEAKER_02]: And one thing Seattle has been really, really good at and purposeful at over the last few years is,
12:24 --> 12:26 [SPEAKER_02]: April and May, these guys are only going to pitch four and a third.
12:26 --> 12:28 [SPEAKER_02]: They're only going to pitch five innings.
12:28 --> 12:30 [SPEAKER_02]: They're going to throw 80, you know, 80 pitches.
12:30 --> 12:33 [SPEAKER_02]: We saw it with Ryan Sloan all year in 2025.
12:33 --> 12:34 [SPEAKER_02]: Like it was 80 to 85 pitches.
12:34 --> 12:35 [SPEAKER_02]: We're not going to throw stress pitches.
12:35 --> 12:36 [SPEAKER_02]: We're going to keep the arm healthy.
12:36 --> 12:40 [SPEAKER_02]: We're not going to, you know, put his back up against the wall and some of these starts.
12:40 --> 12:49 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he could throw 120 to 135 innings and we've seen this organization, you know, stress tests, some of their guys that didn't have innings loads.
12:49 --> 12:50 [SPEAKER_02]: Brian Wu is a great example.
12:50 --> 12:53 [SPEAKER_02]: Brian Wu did dot-throw a ton of innings and I'm trying to get the year right.
12:53 --> 13:04 [SPEAKER_02]: I want to say in 2023 and then in 2024 down the stretch in a playoff race and it might have been 2025, trying to remember the exact year, they just kept their own them.
13:04 --> 13:08 [SPEAKER_02]: They just said, hey, we need you, we're going down the stretch here, we need the wins, we need the innings.
13:08 --> 13:10 [SPEAKER_02]: I think they could do that with Ryan Sloan.
13:10 --> 13:11 [SPEAKER_02]: He's six foot, what is he?
13:11 --> 13:15 [SPEAKER_02]: Six foot, four, six foot, five, two hundred and thirty five, two hundred and forty pounds.
13:15 --> 13:16 [SPEAKER_02]: It's like it's a workhorse body.
13:17 --> 13:23 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't think you would be going out of your way to pitch him up to a hundred and thirty five, one hundred and forty and in twenty twenty six.
13:23 --> 13:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Are you thinking about Brian Wu's rookie year when they needed him at the end?
13:27 --> 13:37 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think so yeah, like I think what what was he coming off of you guys might have to remind me Maybe it was like I think he threw like 45 or 50 innings the year before and then they stretched him up to like what?
13:37 --> 13:40 [SPEAKER_02]: One 18 125 the next year.
13:40 --> 13:55 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I think you're thinking of his rookie year, which was 2023 when him and Bryce both got up because they needed him out of all the injuries with Robbie Ray and others But yeah down the stretch him and Bryce Miller were they were still pitching they didn't have other options And they kept throwing them late into the year.
13:55 --> 13:57 [SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I think that was the rookie year in 23
13:57 --> 14:02 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and Sloan's got a more durable frame than Brian.
14:02 --> 14:05 [SPEAKER_02]: He's got a better track record of health than Brian.
14:06 --> 14:09 [SPEAKER_02]: They've been very, very diligent with him over the last two or three years.
14:09 --> 14:18 [SPEAKER_02]: So I think Brian Sloan could come up and pitch 135, 140, 145 innings for the organization, especially if they kind of slowly play him in April and May.
14:18 --> 14:20 [SPEAKER_01]: Do you think the Mariners have enough pitching depth?
14:20 --> 14:25 [SPEAKER_01]: Like with these guys, let's say if they're injuries piling up by June, do they have enough depth?
14:27 --> 14:31 [SPEAKER_02]: I think the correct answer to that question is nobody ever has enough depth.
14:31 --> 14:42 [SPEAKER_02]: Like, I know it's a cop out, I know it's kind of a hedge, but I think if you assume that the Seattle Mariners believe that Kate Anderson could be ready to pitch in the big leagues by the All Starbreak,
14:42 --> 14:45 [SPEAKER_02]: And they feel similarly about Ryan's loan.
14:45 --> 14:49 [SPEAKER_02]: They could pitch him in August or down the stretch if they needed him.
14:49 --> 14:52 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think they probably have enough pitching that what is that?
14:52 --> 14:58 [SPEAKER_02]: With Hancock, that gives them nine good trustworthy arms to pitch innings.
14:58 --> 14:59 [SPEAKER_02]: I think that's enough pitching.
14:59 --> 15:01 [SPEAKER_02]: If it's not, they're going to be in trouble either way.
15:01 --> 15:10 [SPEAKER_02]: If you feel as though to make a deeper run in the playoffs, you need 12 quality starting pitchers and you're planning for five to six injuries.
15:11 --> 15:34 [SPEAKER_02]: uh... this team is going to be in trouble no matter what i i can't think of a single team in baseball as twelve quality starters maybe the nodgers maybe the dodgers but they're perfect example like yes they won the world series and they did it with like the very very back end of of their pitching reinforcements but they were beat to high hell in twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six from a pitching staff a perspective
15:34 --> 15:36 [SPEAKER_02]: and they spend $500 million on their payroll.
15:36 --> 15:43 [SPEAKER_02]: So they're probably the outlier, but I think they're the only organization that can say they feel confident that they've got the arms.
15:44 --> 15:46 [SPEAKER_00]: I was fascinated to ask you this about Ryan Sloan.
15:46 --> 15:53 [SPEAKER_00]: And I my own take on this, but yours is gonna be much more informed, which is why I wanna hear yours first, which is,
15:54 --> 16:09 [SPEAKER_00]: I know you can't put too much stock into spring training live abats in February, but when watching everything you did last year, the stuff that he's unveiled, the potential that he has, all the buzz that he started to generate even more and more and more as time's gone on.
16:09 --> 16:13 [SPEAKER_00]: Why do you think he fell as far as he did in the drafts?
16:13 --> 16:17 [SPEAKER_00]: And I don't mean to the second round where the Mariners worked out a deal to over-slot them.
16:17 --> 16:31 [SPEAKER_00]: It's what it teams not want to take in the 10 to 20 range in terms of the profile on them, that would have slipped them down to the value of a picket, 22, 23, 24, 25, etc.
16:32 --> 16:36 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, so the first thing that I would say is he did get $3 million.
16:37 --> 16:42 [SPEAKER_02]: So he got like top 25 or 26 money, like he got first round money.
16:43 --> 16:45 [SPEAKER_02]: But to your point, like why did he not go in the top 10 to 20?
16:46 --> 16:49 [SPEAKER_02]: I got to see Ryan a couple of times when he was in high school.
16:49 --> 16:55 [SPEAKER_02]: The breaking ball was pretty unpolished when he was high schooler and he had a lot of weight to you and he had to get more physical.
16:55 --> 17:03 [SPEAKER_02]: That all being said, he's also a, I should throw in, he's also a high school right-handed pitcher, which is a demographic nobody wants to draft.
17:03 --> 17:09 [SPEAKER_02]: With their first pick, you saw with the Mariners, they took him with their second pick and they were, they were thrilled with it.
17:09 --> 17:13 [SPEAKER_02]: But you don't want to take a high school righty with your first pick, they get hurt a lot.
17:13 --> 17:24 [SPEAKER_02]: Uh, but to answer your question more succinctly, the breaking ball needed to come along, he was a cold weather arm that got a late start that, you know, a lot of times those guys are untapped potential.
17:25 --> 17:37 [SPEAKER_02]: So I'm sure looking back, there's 29 teams that had a shot at taking Ryan's Sloan before he was selected that might regret not making that selection, especially in a 2024 draft that outside of the top, what?
17:38 --> 17:38 [SPEAKER_02]: eight picks.
17:39 --> 17:43 [SPEAKER_02]: There was a lot of opportunity for talent with Sloan in that range.
17:43 --> 17:43 [SPEAKER_00]: Right.
17:44 --> 17:47 [SPEAKER_00]: And I was going to say that the other part of that too is when you look at that first round.
17:48 --> 17:54 [SPEAKER_00]: Cam Cam and Eddie was the first high school arm off the board in that entire draft and he was taken in the early to mid 20s.
17:54 --> 17:57 [SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, if you're looking at what you're left with.
17:57 --> 17:58 [SPEAKER_00]: right and electy.
17:58 --> 18:05 [SPEAKER_00]: So I guess if you're looking at where teams are valuing high school arms in general in that draft, he was the first one and it took a little bit in the first round.
18:05 --> 18:08 [SPEAKER_00]: So that was part of my take on it.
18:08 --> 18:10 [SPEAKER_00]: It's like maybe that played another factor too.
18:10 --> 18:16 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, like, look, I personally had Seth Hernandez as the top prospect in the 2025 draft.
18:16 --> 18:18 [SPEAKER_02]: Like, he was my, he was graded out as my top prospect.
18:18 --> 18:23 [SPEAKER_02]: He went six because there was five teams that said, oh, you know, I think it was six.
18:23 --> 18:26 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't want to take the high school right hand or the high school right hand or scares me.
18:27 --> 18:29 [SPEAKER_02]: It's going to take four or five years to get to the big leagues.
18:30 --> 18:33 [SPEAKER_02]: I probably won't be in this job when he arrives, right?
18:33 --> 18:36 [SPEAKER_02]: You're going to get fired or you're going to take another job or something like that.
18:36 --> 18:52 [SPEAKER_02]: and then to your point yeah like cam cam in it he goes before Ryan's loan cash may field went before Ryan's loan in that draft like right after that to the pod rays you know i think the left hand it's starting pitcher is a more sought after demographic than the right hand starting pitcher and
18:52 --> 18:55 [SPEAKER_02]: It just goes to show what good player development does.
18:55 --> 18:56 [SPEAKER_02]: You get Ryan into the organization.
18:57 --> 18:58 [SPEAKER_02]: You tack on 20 pounds of good muscle.
18:58 --> 18:59 [SPEAKER_02]: You work with his mechanics.
18:59 --> 19:01 [SPEAKER_02]: You work on the breaking ball and now look at him.
19:01 --> 19:08 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, four or five pitches, buckets, and buckets of strikes as sure fire or starting pitcher is you're going to find in the minor leagues.
19:09 --> 19:14 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think once he starts unleashing that change a little bit more this year, thrown at first strikes, commanding it or he wants.
19:14 --> 19:19 [SPEAKER_02]: He might be the top pitching prospect in baseball by June 1st.
19:19 --> 19:41 [SPEAKER_01]: That's crazy and love that we're talking about when he eventually gets stretched out to a full Starters workload what about 180 innings and it could be next year when he's 21 years old or it could just be your after when he's 22 years old where the dude is he's built he's humongous he has great stuff and he's 22 years old
19:41 --> 19:53 [SPEAKER_01]: and he's like behind five other legit big league starters sitting in the rotation and he has one another top prospect right behind him and starting pitch and it's it's really good problem half it's great.
19:53 --> 19:54 [SPEAKER_00]: I know what you with Mariners are going to do.
19:54 --> 19:54 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
19:54 --> 19:55 [SPEAKER_00]: No, he's 20.
19:56 --> 19:56 [SPEAKER_00]: He's 20 right now.
19:57 --> 19:57 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
19:57 --> 19:57 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
19:57 --> 19:59 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, I mean the future years.
19:59 --> 20:26 [SPEAKER_02]: the way this usually works itself out and it's not really what people want to hear is it usually works itself out by itself right like Brian Wu and I'll put this in quotes quote unquote wasn't ready to come up and pitch in the big leagues right they called him up because everyone got hurt he makes his debut against Texas he struggles in that first inning but now look at him one of the best right-handed pitchers in baseball and he figured it out um so usually these problems
20:26 --> 20:28 [SPEAKER_02]: through attrition of some way.
20:28 --> 20:34 [SPEAKER_02]: And because of that, I just think Ryan Sloan might see the big leagues in 2026 in Seattle.
20:34 --> 20:36 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I'll tell you what the attrition is.
20:36 --> 20:45 [SPEAKER_01]: Unfortunately, I feel like someone's going to get traded at some point because we're sitting here on Tuesday, February 17.
20:45 --> 20:48 [SPEAKER_01]: And not one guy in that starting rotation is signed an extension yet.
20:49 --> 20:53 [SPEAKER_01]: One of them is two years away from
20:53 --> 21:13 [SPEAKER_01]: And this is where the Mariners have a question where they if they have premier Prospect starting pitching in their system and guys they don't think are gonna sign an extension to them You have to answer a tough question on whether you think it's worth it to you know keep growing out the big leg guys to or probably gonna be better
21:13 --> 21:16 [SPEAKER_01]: But you could also get a lot back form if they're not willing to stay for you long term.
21:16 --> 21:23 [SPEAKER_01]: So I like I don't know what they don't do Joe like one year from now I don't know looking over it will have one year left before free agency.
21:24 --> 21:25 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I don't know.
21:25 --> 21:30 [SPEAKER_02]: I think Seattle is in a really precarious place for a number of reasons
21:30 --> 21:33 [SPEAKER_02]: Like one, you would love to sign Logan to an extension.
21:33 --> 21:37 [SPEAKER_02]: And if there was a guy in the rotation, I think everyone would choose that you would want to sign.
21:37 --> 21:38 [SPEAKER_02]: It would probably be Logan.
21:38 --> 21:39 [SPEAKER_02]: Like it's been here the longest.
21:40 --> 21:41 [SPEAKER_02]: He's performed.
21:41 --> 21:43 [SPEAKER_02]: He's taken to the city, taking to Cal, obviously.
21:45 --> 21:46 [SPEAKER_02]: But I look at it like this.
21:46 --> 21:48 [SPEAKER_02]: Like if you go into 2027,
21:48 --> 21:51 [SPEAKER_02]: And that's the off season that you need to trade Logan.
21:51 --> 21:54 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, the doors get locked on November 1st.
21:54 --> 21:58 [SPEAKER_02]: You can't make trades when there's a lockout, at least that's my understanding.
21:59 --> 22:06 [SPEAKER_02]: So let's say this lockout goes all the way to June 15th and they shorten the season to 60 games again.
22:06 --> 22:07 [SPEAKER_02]: 80 games again.
22:08 --> 22:14 [SPEAKER_02]: If you're the Mariners, are you punting, you're starting pitching before an 80 game season?
22:16 --> 22:32 [SPEAKER_02]: or the other piece of that is, who's gonna give you fair market return for a 60, let's say they shorten the season, who's gonna, you're only trading like 14 starts of Logan Gilbert and a full year for prospects.
22:32 --> 22:43 [SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, I think ideally, I guess the worst thing that could happen or maybe the best thing that could happen for them to solve this problem is they struggle.
22:43 --> 22:59 [SPEAKER_02]: like if Seattle struggles for some reason in 2026 and they fall out of it and they're not in contention and it forces them to make a decision to trade a George Kirby or to trade a Logan Gilbert early and collect pieces before a potential lockout in 2026.
23:00 --> 23:02 [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe that's the way that this whole thing gets solved.
23:02 --> 23:07 [SPEAKER_02]: But I think ideally you sign Logan Gilbert to an extension and then
23:08 --> 23:15 [SPEAKER_02]: You try and delicately walk the line as to when to trade George Kirby because whenever it happens, it's gonna be painful.
23:16 --> 23:23 [SPEAKER_02]: And especially if they do it during the 2027 season and someone pays for a year and a half of George Kirby, that's gonna be painful too.
23:23 --> 23:29 [SPEAKER_02]: Because you are still going to be selling for pennies on the dollar when it happens.
23:29 --> 23:44 [SPEAKER_01]: What hurts the most to me is getting fair market value for Logan Gilbert would have meant trading him this off season, which I would have said no, or this July, yeah, which, which, there are people saying that Seattle is the best team in the American League, right?
23:44 --> 23:45 [SPEAKER_02]: Why would you do that?
23:45 --> 23:55 [SPEAKER_02]: I just, the, it's hard for me to envision a scenario where Seattle is so far out of it that trading Logan Gilbert
23:55 --> 24:00 [SPEAKER_02]: at the end of July is a reasonable outcome.
24:01 --> 24:07 [SPEAKER_00]: I would say in this to you before we started recording and I'll just give people an insight to what we were talking about.
24:07 --> 24:13 [SPEAKER_00]: But 2027 has a chance to be an unbelievably fascinating year for the Mariners.
24:13 --> 24:19 [SPEAKER_00]: And now the 2026 isn't going to be really exciting and that people shouldn't be high on how good the team can be because all of that's true.
24:20 --> 24:22 [SPEAKER_00]: But in 2027, I hope they play all these games.
24:23 --> 24:28 [SPEAKER_00]: Because in 2027, you're going to have potentially
24:28 --> 24:44 [SPEAKER_00]: Johnny Farmello, Las Montez, Michael Arroyo, Kate Anderson, Ryan Sloan, and maybe Luke Stevenson, all big league ready at some point, and you're gonna have to make a decision on what to do with Logan Gilbert and George Kirby because of your two blue chip pitching prospects.
24:44 --> 24:53 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think 2027 for his exciting as this year's gonna be is gonna be absolutely fascinating in terms of the construction of the roster for the future of the team.
24:54 --> 24:54 [SPEAKER_02]: Totally agree.
24:54 --> 25:06 [SPEAKER_02]: I would tend to expect half of those players or a third of those players to either get hurt or struggle with performance and things like that.
25:06 --> 25:10 [SPEAKER_02]: So maybe there's only like three of those guys that you can count on, right?
25:10 --> 25:13 [SPEAKER_02]: But to your point, they've got such a deep rotation right now.
25:13 --> 25:19 [SPEAKER_02]: They've got a lot of their lineup pieces figured out for the next two or three years.
25:19 --> 25:21 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's gonna be it's gonna be fascinating.
25:22 --> 25:30 [SPEAKER_02]: I do think there's gonna be a spot for Luke Stevenson comfortably easily no matter what like He is like bread to be a backup catcher, right?
25:30 --> 25:34 [SPEAKER_02]: Like they're swinging miss in his game But he puts up polished at bats.
25:34 --> 25:37 [SPEAKER_02]: He's an excellent defender with a big arm good power.
25:37 --> 25:42 [SPEAKER_02]: Like He's he's essentially like the left-handed version of Tom Murphy in a lot of ways, right?
25:43 --> 25:46 [SPEAKER_02]: So there's gonna be a spot for him, but the other guys like
25:47 --> 25:51 [SPEAKER_02]: Formel has got to prove it, Montez has got to prove it, or Roya has got to find a defensive home.
25:51 --> 25:55 [SPEAKER_02]: They're going to have to figure out whether or not Emerson and Young are the future of this team.
25:56 --> 26:04 [SPEAKER_02]: And then, yeah, to your point, after the 2027 season, my best guess, my best guess, would be after 2027,
26:04 --> 26:06 [SPEAKER_02]: They keep Logan Gilbert throughout the whole time.
26:06 --> 26:09 [SPEAKER_02]: They qualify, they do a qualifying offer with him.
26:10 --> 26:12 [SPEAKER_02]: After 2027, he turns it down.
26:12 --> 26:13 [SPEAKER_02]: They get a draft pick out of it.
26:14 --> 26:34 [SPEAKER_02]: And then maybe they just do that every year with George Kirby and with Bryce Miller, and they just continue to rack up competitive balance B-picts in the draft, which would be fun for me, but when you're not bringing back talent, the competitive window and the amount of value that you have in your organization starts to,
26:34 --> 26:41 [SPEAKER_01]: There's another big picture question we talked about pre-recording and I want to get your sort of fuller opinion on it.
26:41 --> 26:50 [SPEAKER_01]: You described the Mariners organization to us and I think you are referring to the minor leagues right now for the Mariners as boomer bust.
26:50 --> 26:53 [SPEAKER_01]: Could you explain a little bit more what you mean by that and why you think that is?
26:55 --> 26:57 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think if you look at
26:58 --> 26:59 [SPEAKER_02]: the Mariners Farm System right now.
26:59 --> 27:02 [SPEAKER_02]: You have Emerson, you have Anderson, and you have Sloan.
27:02 --> 27:10 [SPEAKER_02]: And those guys are reasonably high floor prospects that haven't shown red flags in their game in many regards.
27:11 --> 27:13 [SPEAKER_02]: Kate Anderson has Tommy John in the past.
27:14 --> 27:16 [SPEAKER_02]: There are things, but you got to have to nitpick a little bit.
27:16 --> 27:20 [SPEAKER_02]: For me, I've Johnny Farmello as the number four prospect in the organization.
27:20 --> 27:21 [SPEAKER_02]: He's been hurt a lot.
27:22 --> 27:30 [SPEAKER_02]: He's barely been able to get his legs out under him, you know, I don't mean that literally, but like it's true, like his legs have been beat up for much of his career.
27:31 --> 27:34 [SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of injury concerns there.
27:34 --> 27:36 [SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of swing and miss issues there.
27:36 --> 27:38 [SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of pitch selection issues there.
27:39 --> 27:57 [SPEAKER_02]: It's the type of guy that could go out and play center fields for the Seattle Mariners and hit 30 home runs and steal 20 bases or it's the guy that gets stuck in double A because he's hitting 230 and he's striking out 35% of the time and bumps and bruises slow down his career.
27:57 --> 28:02 [SPEAKER_02]: Then you have Michael Royo who is probably less of a boomer bust, but where are you going to play him?
28:03 --> 28:11 [SPEAKER_02]: Like so it now it sounds like he's going to play some third base and he's going to play some second base and he's going to play some left field like is this is this Abraham Toro?
28:12 --> 28:16 [SPEAKER_02]: And he's he's he's well, he's less of a boomer bust, but you know what I mean?
28:17 --> 28:23 [SPEAKER_02]: But Abraham Toro Abraham Toro had really good minor league data He wasn't a good second-basin
28:23 --> 28:25 [SPEAKER_02]: He wasn't a good third baseman.
28:25 --> 28:27 [SPEAKER_02]: He ended up playing a bunch of left fields for the Mariners.
28:28 --> 28:31 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm not saying, don't, you're going to clip this, but that's fine.
28:32 --> 28:41 [SPEAKER_02]: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
28:42 --> 28:45 [SPEAKER_02]: very good defender at any place.
28:45 --> 28:46 [SPEAKER_02]: The bat needs to do a lot of heavy lifting.
28:46 --> 28:50 [SPEAKER_02]: And there's a reason why Abraham Toro was a big leaker for as long as he was.
28:50 --> 28:54 [SPEAKER_02]: Because his minor league offensive profile was so good.
28:54 --> 29:00 [SPEAKER_02]: But when he got to the big leagues, he was shuffled all over the place and the bat never really buoyed anywhere.
29:00 --> 29:02 [SPEAKER_02]: Then finally, really quickly.
29:03 --> 29:08 [SPEAKER_02]: Luke Stephenson is a really boomer bust, but Lazz Montez has a ton of whiff all over his profile.
29:08 --> 29:12 [SPEAKER_02]: And is he going to run into big league pitching?
29:12 --> 29:16 [SPEAKER_02]: where every single night you're seeing the best double a picture and strikeouts mount for him.
29:17 --> 29:23 [SPEAKER_02]: Teddy McGraw's been hurt a whole bunch and then you have a ton of volatility with like Nikki Becker and Yorga but he's done and guys like that.
29:23 --> 29:38 [SPEAKER_02]: So that's a long-winded way of me saying there's just a lot of guys with injury concerns and swinging miss and pitch selection concerns that I think Seattle has the chance for a few stars in their organization.
29:38 --> 29:46 [SPEAKER_02]: But I think Seattle has a handful of guys that could get stuck in Arkansas because the level of competition ratches up really fast.
29:47 --> 29:52 [SPEAKER_00]: I think all of that, like all the analysis you give and all your insight, spot on totally fair.
29:52 --> 29:56 [SPEAKER_00]: The only reason we're laughing is you can't bring up a Torah with TJ.
29:57 --> 30:00 [SPEAKER_00]: It's, I mean, it's at least favorite player in the history of the universe.
30:00 --> 30:02 [SPEAKER_00]: So you bring up that name for you.
30:02 --> 30:05 [SPEAKER_01]: You used to know there's a reason why Abe Torah was in the big leagues as long as he was.
30:05 --> 30:09 [SPEAKER_01]: And I say, I can't, I personally cannot find that reason.
30:09 --> 30:09 [SPEAKER_01]: I can't.
30:10 --> 30:16 [SPEAKER_02]: His AAA, bad at ball data and swing and miss and swing decisions were all very, very good.
30:17 --> 30:22 [SPEAKER_02]: But I think, you know, you look at Toro, you look at Kelnick, you look at some of these guys that dominated the minor leagues.
30:22 --> 30:26 [SPEAKER_02]: Sometimes talent and athleticism can take you a very, very, very long ways.
30:27 --> 30:33 [SPEAKER_02]: But ultimately, when you get to the big leagues, things get very, very hard, very fast.
30:34 --> 30:46 [SPEAKER_02]: And if you're not, you know, if you're a fringy defender at second base, if you're a fringy defender at third base, if you are like not a great runner and kind of trying to figure things out in left field,
30:46 --> 30:50 [SPEAKER_02]: And there's going to be a lot of pressure on Michael Arroyo's bat.
30:50 --> 30:57 [SPEAKER_02]: There's going to be a lot of pressure on Las Montez's bat because they just don't do the other parts of baseball very well.
30:58 --> 31:04 [SPEAKER_02]: So listen, A Toro was at AAA was a very, very good player.
31:05 --> 31:07 [SPEAKER_02]: But the jump can be difficult for guys.
31:07 --> 31:11 [SPEAKER_00]: I am just waiting on the offseason where they bring them back on a minor like deal.
31:11 --> 31:13 [SPEAKER_00]: And TJ just has to face the music.
31:13 --> 31:14 [SPEAKER_00]: He's got to talk about them.
31:14 --> 31:16 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe he'll get to meet them and spring training.
31:16 --> 31:17 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe they'll get to have a nice conversation.
31:18 --> 31:20 [SPEAKER_00]: Like every year I'm just waiting on my toes for it.
31:20 --> 31:21 [SPEAKER_00]: Like just bring them back.
31:21 --> 31:22 [SPEAKER_00]: Just bring them back on a minor like deal.
31:22 --> 31:24 [SPEAKER_00]: Just for the sake of him.
31:24 --> 31:25 [SPEAKER_02]: Or maybe he'll say this man.
31:25 --> 31:32 [SPEAKER_02]: You guys weren't, and I mean this like totally respectfully.
31:33 --> 31:36 [SPEAKER_02]: You guys weren't there or you weren't like big time fans.
31:37 --> 31:43 [SPEAKER_02]: At least this is my understanding for like the 2007 through like 2013 marriage.
31:44 --> 31:46 [SPEAKER_00]: No, we were, we just weren't making content about it.
31:46 --> 31:47 [SPEAKER_00]: We were, we were kids.
31:47 --> 31:47 [SPEAKER_02]: There.
31:47 --> 31:55 [SPEAKER_02]: I was going to say man, if Abe Toro is, is your biggest, like worst nightmare, I got a laundry list of players I need to show you.
31:56 --> 31:57 [SPEAKER_02]: You weren't here for just the most recent.
31:58 --> 32:04 [SPEAKER_02]: You weren't here, I've met Jeff Cyrillo, by the way, he's a nice guy, but the Jeff Cyrillo era was rough.
32:05 --> 32:10 [SPEAKER_02]: in terms of expectations and what he provided you guys were here for Sean Figgins like it there's been some rough years.
32:11 --> 32:12 [SPEAKER_02]: Carlos Silva.
32:12 --> 32:13 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
32:13 --> 32:13 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean.
32:14 --> 32:14 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
32:15 --> 32:15 [SPEAKER_01]: Exactly.
32:15 --> 32:21 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean the big three starting pitchers like shoot branding anything out of that.
32:21 --> 32:22 [SPEAKER_02]: Brandon league man.
32:22 --> 32:23 [SPEAKER_02]: I remember me Bobby.
32:23 --> 32:26 [SPEAKER_01]: I probably have a 30 prospect.
32:26 --> 32:26 [SPEAKER_01]: Right.
32:27 --> 32:30 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, I still love Brad Miller.
32:30 --> 32:39 [SPEAKER_02]: Brad Miller was really fun to watch, but like Nick Franklin tough Really tough to watch And Brad Miller may be all time nice dude.
32:39 --> 32:40 [SPEAKER_00]: I remember meeting him at fan fest one year.
32:40 --> 32:43 [SPEAKER_00]: He was awesome even if a guy
32:43 --> 32:49 [SPEAKER_02]: Even if he struggles, his nickname is Crazy Legs, you've got to still love Brad Miller.
32:49 --> 32:51 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm glad that he figured it out too.
32:51 --> 32:55 [SPEAKER_02]: We put on like 20 pounds of muscle and you just turned into this masher when he left Seattle.
32:55 --> 32:57 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he had a piece of little career.
32:58 --> 32:58 [SPEAKER_00]: Sure.
32:58 --> 33:10 [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, on the note of prospects and the boomer bust, who is a guy that you think could have a big year this year in the system that people aren't really talking about yet.
33:10 --> 33:19 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it can be a touted of prospect, but everybody's talking about Sloan, Kate Anderson, Colt Emerson, et cetera, who could have a big year that people aren't talking about enough yet.
33:20 --> 33:25 [SPEAKER_02]: I have Griffin Hugus as number nine in my prospect rankings.
33:26 --> 33:28 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he's, I think he's budget jacklighter.
33:28 --> 33:30 [SPEAKER_02]: Like it's a, it's a big, big fastball.
33:31 --> 33:33 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a, it's a sturdy frame.
33:33 --> 33:36 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a, it's a slider that will creep up into the,
33:36 --> 34:02 [SPEAKER_02]: mid 90s or mid 80s and the change up like it exists and I think if Seattle can get to a place where he can get more left handed hitters out with that change up that change up split he could elevate himself pretty quickly and turn himself into a back into the rotation profile pretty quickly he's a guy that it's it's funny so I'll give you a little look under the hood when when who was the trade that just happened oh the cardinals
34:03 --> 34:10 [SPEAKER_02]: When the cardinals trade happened, they've shuffled a bunch of guys up in their front office, the Brennan Donovan deal.
34:11 --> 34:21 [SPEAKER_02]: And when news came that the trade broke, I texted someone in their front office and I said, hugus, it's hugus.
34:21 --> 34:22 [SPEAKER_02]: And they just wrote back where trying.
34:23 --> 34:27 [SPEAKER_02]: And it sounds like it was never actually, he was never part of the,
34:27 --> 34:30 [SPEAKER_02]: package like he was never actually going to be part of the package.
34:30 --> 34:41 [SPEAKER_02]: I think they were kind of getting me off the cent, but Griffin, a lot of people really, really liked Griffin Hugus in that 2025 draft, and I really liked him too, so because of that, I think he could have a big year.
34:41 --> 34:51 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he's tailor-made for what Seattle does well from a pitching development perspective, and because of that, like I said, I have him at number nine in my organizational prospect rankings.
34:51 --> 34:53 [SPEAKER_01]: So tell me if this is crazier or not.
34:54 --> 35:03 [SPEAKER_01]: Is the path then based off of the profile and the results in college and what they see form in the Mariners organization, the Brian Wu, Bryce Miller out.
35:04 --> 35:09 [SPEAKER_02]: It's not that electric of a fastball, and it's not as good a frame.
35:09 --> 35:13 [SPEAKER_02]: Like Griffin Huggis has already kind of tapped out in terms of like physical upside.
35:13 --> 35:16 [SPEAKER_02]: Like Bryce Miller was a string bean when he came to Seattle.
35:17 --> 35:19 [SPEAKER_02]: And Brian Wu had pitched, right?
35:19 --> 35:22 [SPEAKER_02]: he had been hurt at Cal Poly all those years.
35:22 --> 35:27 [SPEAKER_02]: I think Griffin Hugus is just one of those guys that, okay, it's a riding forcing fastball that'll creep up to like 97.
35:28 --> 35:30 [SPEAKER_02]: It'll sit 93 to 95.
35:30 --> 35:31 [SPEAKER_02]: He can spin a breaking ball.
35:31 --> 35:33 [SPEAKER_02]: He's got the flat vertical approach angle.
35:34 --> 35:38 [SPEAKER_02]: But when I say flat vertical approach angle, it's nothing like what Brian Wu is bringing to the table.
35:38 --> 35:41 [SPEAKER_02]: Like that guy is a is a unicorn.
35:41 --> 35:43 [SPEAKER_02]: So, I just, I think
35:45 --> 35:59 [SPEAKER_02]: I just think he is going to fill a role inside of Seattle, whether that be a low number four starter, or a guy that comes up and gives you six to eight solid starts in 2027, I think he's a guy that could surprise some people.
36:00 --> 36:06 [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, Joe, what percentage chance do you think Colt Emerson has of making this roster at a spring training?
36:09 --> 36:12 [SPEAKER_02]: I think it's going to take an injury to be honest with you.
36:12 --> 36:23 [SPEAKER_02]: I think it's going to take a Brendan Donovan injury, it's going to take a co-young injury, it's going to take someone opening it up a spot, you know, perhaps a JP Crawford injury.
36:23 --> 36:25 [SPEAKER_02]: I honestly think the best position
36:25 --> 36:33 [SPEAKER_02]: for Cole Tamerson, if he's going to make the Seattle Mariners a short stop, because I don't think you want to put him in a corner at this young of an age.
36:33 --> 36:36 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's proven in Arkansas and it's coma.
36:36 --> 36:37 [SPEAKER_02]: He could play shortstop.
36:38 --> 36:41 [SPEAKER_02]: He's no worse at the shortstop position than I think JP Crawford.
36:41 --> 36:43 [SPEAKER_02]: They're both pretty average defenders at this point.
36:43 --> 36:45 [SPEAKER_02]: So I think it's going to take an injury.
36:45 --> 36:55 [SPEAKER_02]: I think the interesting thing with Cole Tamerson becomes like he is the type of talent that could net you another first round pick in the 2020-27 draft.
36:55 --> 37:06 [SPEAKER_02]: and for Seattle, they're going to have to decide either he comes up before April, I think it's April 12, April 10th, something like that, to earn that sort of consideration.
37:06 --> 37:12 [SPEAKER_02]: or they have to wait until like August 20th, if they want to keep him eligible in 2027.
37:12 --> 37:16 [SPEAKER_02]: So it's a weird place for Seattle to be in.
37:17 --> 37:28 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm sure given the payroll restrictions and develop the way they like to do things, they would love for him to net them a potential rookie of the year and first round pick in 2027.
37:29 --> 37:33 [SPEAKER_02]: But man, break and camp with the Mariners, I just think it's gonna take an injury.
37:34 --> 37:56 [SPEAKER_02]: make sense although isn't that what Bobby with it his rookie area played third in the move to short yes but um Bobby with also came up late if i'm not mistaken did Bobby with break camp with the royal did i want to say that he might have he might have that i think wit actually got the royals that extra first round picked because of his envy p voting
37:57 --> 38:07 [SPEAKER_02]: Hmm, anyways, to your point though, yeah, like it's possible he could come up and play third base and move to shortstop and I think that is at some point in 2026 the most likely route.
38:07 --> 38:13 [SPEAKER_02]: I think Emerson's gonna play short or third base for the Mariners at some point, hopefully he's the shortstop in 2027.
38:13 --> 38:18 [SPEAKER_01]: So you see this differently, I think then, at least from what I've seen some other people.
38:19 --> 38:23 [SPEAKER_01]: What I've always been able to summarize from other people and what I think myself, as I feel like.
38:23 --> 38:25 [SPEAKER_01]: So Colt Emerson comes up.
38:25 --> 38:26 [SPEAKER_01]: He's going to play third.
38:27 --> 38:28 [SPEAKER_01]: JP's going to play short.
38:29 --> 38:33 [SPEAKER_01]: Colt Young's going to play second, and Brennan Donovan's going to be a right field there.
38:33 --> 38:34 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I agree with that.
38:35 --> 38:40 [SPEAKER_01]: But if Emerson were to play short, how do you think the rest of that should check out?
38:40 --> 38:41 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, JP would just be hurt.
38:42 --> 38:43 [SPEAKER_01]: Uh, okay.
38:43 --> 38:44 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
38:44 --> 38:44 [SPEAKER_02]: JP would be hurt.
38:44 --> 38:48 [SPEAKER_02]: Brennan Donovan at third, Cole Young at second base in John and really in right.
38:50 --> 38:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
38:50 --> 38:57 [SPEAKER_00]: Speaking of Cole Young, we haven't mentioned his name yet, but what is the most important thing he needs to improve on in 2026.
38:58 --> 39:02 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think for me, he got a little bit in his head at the end of 2025.
39:03 --> 39:05 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he needs to ambush some pitches.
39:05 --> 39:06 [SPEAKER_02]: He tried to work long counts, which is good.
39:07 --> 39:09 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, he's a mature, polished hitter in a lot of ways.
39:10 --> 39:15 [SPEAKER_02]: And he still showed flashes of good patient at bats toward the end of the year.
39:15 --> 39:18 [SPEAKER_02]: But a lot of poor contact because he let the pitchers get ahead.
39:19 --> 39:23 [SPEAKER_02]: And the other thing that I noticed with Cole toward the end of the year that
39:23 --> 39:26 [SPEAKER_02]: was new, was he wasn't hitting the fastball.
39:26 --> 39:34 [SPEAKER_02]: He was popping the fastball up and or he was swinging through it and I think for Koyung to have success at the big league level, he's got to hit the fastball.
39:34 --> 39:38 [SPEAKER_02]: The secondary is there too good for him to rely on adjusting to spin.
39:38 --> 39:46 [SPEAKER_02]: So take a little bit, take more chances early in counts and don't miss the fastball because he was missing a lot of elevated fastballs last year.
39:47 --> 39:51 [SPEAKER_01]: Was he walking that much because he was being more passive than he usually was?
39:51 --> 40:02 [SPEAKER_01]: Because the one calling card I could say about him in his work years that he used his on-base skills to be a well above average hitter for a solid chunk of time.
40:03 --> 40:05 [SPEAKER_01]: but the way you just made it sounds like sounds like you can't do that.
40:05 --> 40:09 [SPEAKER_01]: You can't keep that strategy necessarily.
40:09 --> 40:10 [SPEAKER_02]: I think there's a blend.
40:11 --> 40:15 [SPEAKER_02]: Like the thing about baseball is, pictures are gonna adjust to you.
40:15 --> 40:21 [SPEAKER_02]: And if you're letting them get ahead, 0212 all the time because you wanna see what they have.
40:21 --> 40:25 [SPEAKER_02]: For example, you wanna kind of make sure that you see the breaking ball.
40:25 --> 40:28 [SPEAKER_02]: You see the fastball and then you're geared up for when it comes again.
40:28 --> 40:29 [SPEAKER_02]: You might not get another one.
40:29 --> 40:50 [SPEAKER_02]: There's a ton of appats in Major League Baseball where you see one fastball and it's on the corner and sometimes you got to take a shot at that So going up there with an ambush mentality when pictures are being aggressive with you and then when you're on a hot streak You know, maybe go up there and sit on a first pitch slider or go up there with the intention of working a longer at that
40:50 --> 40:53 [SPEAKER_02]: There's a, you know, there's a yo-yo effect in Major League Baseball.
40:53 --> 40:54 [SPEAKER_02]: There's a tit for tat.
40:54 --> 40:55 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a mental game.
40:56 --> 41:03 [SPEAKER_02]: And I just think Cole was this patient hitter for too much of the final stretch of his 20, 25 campaign.
41:03 --> 41:12 [SPEAKER_02]: And that combined with the fact that he wasn't hitting the fastball at the top of the zone can be a pretty neutralizing, you know, characteristic trait.
41:13 --> 41:14 [SPEAKER_02]: How did you look at his defense last year?
41:17 --> 41:19 [SPEAKER_02]: I thought it was fine.
41:20 --> 41:20 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, I don't know.
41:20 --> 41:25 [SPEAKER_02]: He's a little bit more heavy-footed at second-base than I think I was anticipating.
41:26 --> 41:29 [SPEAKER_02]: He looked better at shortstop than I was anticipating too.
41:29 --> 41:32 [SPEAKER_02]: Like, I still don't think he's a shortstop, but certainly passable as the backup.
41:32 --> 41:43 [SPEAKER_02]: So, watching him play second-base for a month before getting any shots, you know, late in games or when JP needed a day off, led me to the...
41:44 --> 41:49 [SPEAKER_02]: the feeling that he had no chance to play shortstop and I was proven wrong in that regard.
41:49 --> 41:51 [SPEAKER_02]: So I think he's a fine second basement.
41:51 --> 41:56 [SPEAKER_02]: I don't think he's going to be a gold glove or a dynamic second basement, but I think he can get the job done.
41:57 --> 41:58 [SPEAKER_00]: Last one I got for you, Joe.
41:58 --> 42:00 [SPEAKER_00]: And this is a big lead question.
42:00 --> 42:04 [SPEAKER_00]: We spent a lot of time on the prospects for the talk about the pitchers and the rotation.
42:05 --> 42:08 [SPEAKER_00]: Who has the better shot to find their A game again this season?
42:08 --> 42:10 [SPEAKER_00]: Is a George Kirby or is a Bryce Miller?
42:14 --> 42:15 [SPEAKER_02]: I think it's probably George Kirby.
42:16 --> 42:18 [SPEAKER_02]: Here's the thing about Kirby.
42:20 --> 42:28 [SPEAKER_02]: I think knowing what we know about George and knowing how competitive he is and how stubborn and he gets pissed, right?
42:29 --> 42:32 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he probably took 20, 25 personally.
42:32 --> 42:38 [SPEAKER_02]: And I know that that's like a cliche and it's a narrative that I'm making up in my head.
42:39 --> 42:44 [SPEAKER_02]: I just have a hard time seeing George looking at 2025 and being like, yeah, I'm okay with that.
42:45 --> 42:47 [SPEAKER_02]: I'll try again in 2026.
42:47 --> 42:51 [SPEAKER_02]: I just kind of feel like he's going to come back with a bit of a vengeance in 2026.
42:51 --> 42:54 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he was pissed off about starting the season late.
42:55 --> 42:57 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he was pissed off about getting sheld on multiple occasions.
42:57 --> 42:59 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he was pissed off at the numbers.
42:59 --> 43:09 [SPEAKER_02]: uh... as they worked out at the end of the year i think it's probably pissed off with how the postseason went i don't think that is what George Kirby is he had never been that before twenty twenty five so
43:09 --> 43:18 [SPEAKER_02]: I would expect that he's going to come back with a fire in his belly and go back to being the solid number two starter that Seattle needs him to be.
43:19 --> 43:29 [SPEAKER_02]: Bryce Miller, I don't think you can assume anything when those bone fragments, bones bird, loose bodies, whatever hat, whatever, and his elbow are still there.
43:29 --> 43:32 [SPEAKER_02]: You can't take anything for granted or assume anything.
43:33 --> 43:42 [SPEAKER_01]: And then last question for me, Joe, because LAS and Michael O'Royal both seem to be in a about a similar spot in double-air Arkansas right now.
43:43 --> 43:51 [SPEAKER_01]: If you're going to pick one of them to be more likely to make the big leagues, at some point this season, since they're in Arkansas, it's one step away, which one would it be?
43:55 --> 44:02 [SPEAKER_02]: That's a great question, you know, we were talking before this show started and Seattle does have like a deficiency at designated hitter.
44:02 --> 44:23 [SPEAKER_02]: They might have a need for a boomer bus player in their lineup quickly and if, you know, last comes out and for the first six to eight weeks of the season, he's hitting, you know, three, 40 with nine home runs and he's showing at least the ability to hit the ball really hard when he's hitting the ball.
44:24 --> 44:29 [SPEAKER_02]: short of an injury, there's probably a spot on this team for him before there is one for a royal.
44:29 --> 44:42 [SPEAKER_02]: That being said, if a royal shows that he can play left field, he can play second base, he can play third base, and Koliang is struggling, and Koltemerson isn't off to a hot start into Koma, or Randy gets hurt.
44:42 --> 44:51 [SPEAKER_02]: I think there's a spot for him as a right-handed hitter for a team that might currently be lacking another right-handed hitter.
44:51 --> 44:53 [SPEAKER_02]: So I do think I know it's a hedge.
44:53 --> 45:03 [SPEAKER_02]: I do think it's a bit of a toss-up, but I think I'd say a royal, just because I think there's multiple different paths toward him having a spot in the lineup.
45:03 --> 45:07 [SPEAKER_01]: You can find all of Joe's work on overslotbacepal.com.
45:07 --> 45:08 [SPEAKER_01]: Joe, you are the best.
45:08 --> 45:10 [SPEAKER_01]: You're one of our favorites to come on this podcast.
45:11 --> 45:14 [SPEAKER_01]: Our first guests and always one of our best guests.
45:14 --> 45:15 [SPEAKER_01]: Joe, thanks for taking some time and join us.
45:16 --> 45:18 [SPEAKER_02]: I still can't believe I was your guys' first guests.
45:18 --> 45:22 [SPEAKER_02]: You guys do great work, keep it up, and I can't wait to be on again after the draft, or maybe before it.
45:24 --> 45:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Shout out to Joe, always love having him on.
45:27 --> 45:34 [SPEAKER_00]: If you want to check out all of Joe's work, like TJ mentioned, you can go over to the overslot where Joe's got a one stop shop for everything.
45:34 --> 45:35 [SPEAKER_00]: And he does great work, as you guys already know.
45:36 --> 45:41 [SPEAKER_00]: So shout out to Joe, always appreciate him coming on, always appreciate his insight, it's great stuff.
45:41 --> 45:45 [SPEAKER_00]: With that, that'll just about wrap up this edition of the Marine Liar Podcast.
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46:10 --> 46:14 [SPEAKER_00]: That's TJ, I'm Lyle, as always we thank you guys for tuning in and talking to you soon.