Lyle and TJ discuss J.P. Crawford's updated injury situation, and who should replace him at SS if he's not ready to go by Opening Day (9:02). They then welcome Paul Hembekides to discuss how the Mariners stack up against the American League, what a realistic expectation is for Cal Raleigh, predicting which Mariners will break out, and more (19:53).
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00:00 --> 00:04 [SPEAKER_01]: Hey Marine Lair podcast listeners, we're on the lookout for 2026 season sponsors.
00:04 --> 00:07 [SPEAKER_01]: If you own or work for a business, reach us by email.
00:07 --> 00:13 [SPEAKER_01]: Marine Lair pod at gmail.com Welcome to episode number 378 of the Marine Lair podcast.
00:13 --> 00:21 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll come on our friend and recurring guest, Hembo, Paul Hembakedis of ESPN to preview the Mariners 2026 season and answer some key questions.
00:22 --> 00:27 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll also react to JP Crawford's newest injury update, which is forced to leave Mariners for training.
00:28 --> 00:42 [SPEAKER_02]: reminder to you guys if you're listening to these podcasts just do us a big favor make sure you go download these episodes and while you're at it rate and review and leave it five stars whether you're on Apple or Spotify or wherever you might be listening helps a ton if you go leave that five star review.
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01:06 --> 01:06 [SPEAKER_02]: Let's get it rolling.
01:20 --> 01:25 [SPEAKER_01]: And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Lair podcast, part of the Just Baseball podcast network.
01:25 --> 01:29 [SPEAKER_01]: Recording here on Tuesday afternoon, March 17th.
01:29 --> 01:36 [SPEAKER_01]: If you're watching this on YouTube, you can see while I was wearing a certain sweater, looks pretty good right now, doesn't it, darling?
01:36 --> 01:37 [SPEAKER_02]: It looks pretty good.
01:37 --> 01:38 [SPEAKER_02]: It feels pretty good.
01:38 --> 01:40 [SPEAKER_02]: It sounds pretty good.
01:40 --> 01:44 [SPEAKER_02]: For those listening, I am wearing a Seattle Super Sonic's hoodie.
01:45 --> 01:48 [SPEAKER_02]: And only today was it fitting, because the boys are back.
01:49 --> 01:55 [SPEAKER_01]: They're back two and a half years so it'll be what fall of 20, 20, eight.
01:57 --> 01:59 [SPEAKER_02]: I still haven't bought bought in Starbucks and won't.
02:00 --> 02:00 [SPEAKER_02]: through that time.
02:00 --> 02:01 [SPEAKER_01]: They don't have to.
02:01 --> 02:04 [SPEAKER_01]: There will be less available here in the Northwest to be fair or so.
02:05 --> 02:06 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, it'll make it easier for you.
02:06 --> 02:07 [SPEAKER_02]: Good.
02:07 --> 02:08 [SPEAKER_02]: In the last week, think about this.
02:09 --> 02:13 [SPEAKER_02]: In the last week, Howard Schultz's left Seattle and the Sonic's are back.
02:13 --> 02:16 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, what a week, don't let the door hit you on the way out, buddy.
02:16 --> 02:25 [SPEAKER_01]: It is very, very ironic, but very exciting that the whole sports scene of the Pacific Northwest is going to get the face lift of all facelifts.
02:26 --> 02:28 [SPEAKER_01]: And honestly, it's sneaky while.
02:28 --> 02:30 [SPEAKER_01]: Seattle is now going to be a four sport town.
02:31 --> 02:38 [SPEAKER_01]: Not too long ago, we had these, this is a place to read these huge gaps in our sport schedule because there are only two teams.
02:38 --> 02:42 [SPEAKER_01]: For a long, for a good chunk of R, youth, there's two teams.
02:44 --> 02:44 [SPEAKER_01]: And now we'll have four.
02:45 --> 02:48 [SPEAKER_02]: Four and a major college athletic program in Seattle.
02:48 --> 02:49 [SPEAKER_02]: It's pretty cool.
02:49 --> 02:56 [SPEAKER_01]: Not, there's not many, not many other places that
02:58 --> 03:04 [SPEAKER_02]: at least Boston Miami count Miami Boston New York L.A.
03:04 --> 03:06 [SPEAKER_01]: The Florida Panthers don't play in Miami.
03:07 --> 03:10 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, so what Boston New York L.A. Chicago.
03:12 --> 03:13 [SPEAKER_02]: Those are all the big cities too.
03:14 --> 03:18 [SPEAKER_02]: Dallas Dallas, I mean, there's not that much of a pretty good group.
03:18 --> 03:19 [SPEAKER_02]: very, very good group.
03:19 --> 03:26 [SPEAKER_02]: I got to tell you, this has been on my mind for years and years and now even more so with the announcement of the Sonics coming back.
03:26 --> 03:29 [SPEAKER_02]: And we're just doing this for a minute before we get to baseball, but I'm so excited.
03:30 --> 03:32 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you and I have stopped watching the NBA for a long time.
03:32 --> 03:35 [SPEAKER_02]: For a bunch of different reasons didn't have a dog in the fight.
03:36 --> 03:38 [SPEAKER_02]: I think we felt like the product got a little unwatchable at points.
03:39 --> 03:42 [SPEAKER_02]: I think a lot of people felt like that at points, but the sun is coming back.
03:43 --> 03:49 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm sure I'm gonna be reinvested in games again, because it was such a huge part of my childhood and I was devastated when they left.
03:49 --> 03:51 [SPEAKER_02]: Which is why my mind goes to two places.
03:51 --> 03:59 [SPEAKER_02]: Number one, I don't even wanna know how much those tickets are gonna be for the first time the thunder travel to Seattle.
03:59 --> 04:05 [SPEAKER_02]: But that is going to be as hostile an environment as you can possibly drop.
04:05 --> 04:10 [SPEAKER_02]: There's going to be all these 20-year-olds coming in from OKC who are going to be like, what the hell is happening?
04:11 --> 04:15 [SPEAKER_02]: I was like five when the Sonic's moved, and I am getting crucified inside climate pledge.
04:17 --> 04:18 [SPEAKER_01]: That'll be pretty fun.
04:18 --> 04:20 [SPEAKER_01]: The tickets all season are going to be really expensive.
04:20 --> 04:30 [SPEAKER_01]: If there are any reflection of the Kraken tickets, which are all still really expensive in your five, think about year one of an NBA team, and it's going to be, that's going to be a lot.
04:30 --> 04:32 [SPEAKER_02]: I might shell it out to go to that Thunder game.
04:32 --> 04:33 [SPEAKER_02]: I really might.
04:33 --> 04:39 [SPEAKER_01]: We'll have to see, it'll be probably at least $200 for the upper level tickets.
04:39 --> 04:47 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm really excited though, because I mean, I vividly remember, I went to a sonic game the last year with rookie Kevin Durant, and he was great.
04:47 --> 04:57 [SPEAKER_01]: And I think you brought this up on Brock and Salk on Tuesday morning that the stars aligned for Katie to retire here, which I was just about to bring it up, that was my second point.
04:57 --> 05:00 [SPEAKER_02]: How perfectly could this be aligning?
05:00 --> 05:09 [SPEAKER_02]: Katie has talked about returning to Seattle once the Sonic's come back forever.
05:09 --> 05:13 [SPEAKER_02]: He's going to be 40 years old when the Sonic's come back for that first year in 2829.
05:14 --> 05:20 [SPEAKER_02]: He's also averaging 26 a game this year at 37 years old and hasn't really hinted toward retirement.
05:21 --> 05:27 [SPEAKER_02]: He is also going to be a free agent as the season heads into 2028 slash 29.
05:27 --> 05:31 [SPEAKER_02]: He's under contract next year in the 2728 season.
05:31 --> 05:39 [SPEAKER_02]: He has a player option for about $45 freaking million dollars, which I'm sure he's not turning down.
05:39 --> 05:50 [SPEAKER_02]: Could you imagine the stars aligning could they align more perfectly than that for Katie to book end his career in Seattle and finish where he started in the first year back with the team.
05:50 --> 05:51 [SPEAKER_02]: How cool.
05:51 --> 05:54 [SPEAKER_01]: Do you think I'll have to boycott based on performance?
05:54 --> 06:06 [SPEAKER_01]: Because the last time a Seattle sports star, a guy who started his career in Seattle was great, went somewhere else and came back to finish his career, I had to boycott games.
06:06 --> 06:07 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you'd be in each your own.
06:07 --> 06:10 [SPEAKER_02]: Now, this was before the pod started, but we've told this story a couple times.
06:11 --> 06:19 [SPEAKER_02]: TJ was so fed up watching each your own 2018 at 44 years old, getting actual bats that he just boycotted games until they took him off the roster.
06:19 --> 06:22 [SPEAKER_01]: He was the opening day left fielder for the more contending team.
06:23 --> 06:26 [SPEAKER_01]: This is, this can't be serious.
06:26 --> 06:33 [SPEAKER_02]: Now, Katie, if he comes back, is not going to be like that, because there is not going to be expectations in year one for the Sonics to be winning.
06:34 --> 06:38 [SPEAKER_02]: And it is going to be so nostalgic for him to come back in that year.
06:38 --> 06:46 [SPEAKER_02]: Then nobody's expecting him to lead the team at 40 years old and put up crazy MVP-level Katie numbers.
06:47 --> 06:49 [SPEAKER_01]: He's also just going to sit out half the games.
06:50 --> 07:03 [SPEAKER_02]: Probably probably the ones where they're not at home because that's who he's going to care about playing in front of the most and he might be just be a bench player by that point But I guarantee you if he comes back He starts that first game and he is going to get the most thunderous applause you could ever draw up.
07:03 --> 07:19 [SPEAKER_02]: I love Katie, man And he's been my favorite player forever and probably because he was a sonic and I think one year of him in Seattle will be so nostalgic so cool and Six weeks into the year when he's pissed off at all his teammates and tweeting out him on his burner account That's going to be great
07:19 --> 07:22 [SPEAKER_01]: Listen, he's gonna follow the Marine Lair pod from his burner account.
07:23 --> 07:26 [SPEAKER_02]: I hope he does, maybe he'll be a mariner fan.
07:26 --> 07:31 [SPEAKER_02]: Listen, there's been a lot of talk about all this Cal Raleigh Randy arose around a drama in baseball.
07:32 --> 07:35 [SPEAKER_02]: If that were to happen on the hardwood of an NBA floor, you know what we call that?
07:36 --> 07:37 [SPEAKER_02]: Tuesday.
07:38 --> 07:43 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how I'm going to prepare myself to handle NBA drama.
07:43 --> 07:53 [SPEAKER_01]: So you just never, I've never had to do it like I'm just gonna, we're gonna have to get so used to petty drama, guys sitting out, you know, there's all these things.
07:54 --> 07:55 [SPEAKER_02]: You know who's gonna despise it?
07:55 --> 07:58 [SPEAKER_02]: I can promise you, Brock and Soak.
07:58 --> 07:59 [SPEAKER_02]: Oh, yeah.
07:59 --> 08:02 [SPEAKER_02]: They're they're gonna hate every second of NBA drama.
08:03 --> 08:04 [SPEAKER_02]: Not necessarily the play on the court.
08:05 --> 08:06 [SPEAKER_02]: They're gonna hate every second of NBA drama.
08:07 --> 08:09 [SPEAKER_01]: That's like why are we talking about this?
08:09 --> 08:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
08:09 --> 08:16 [SPEAKER_01]: It's like we don't have to talk about why like why someone's wearing a fat suit out on the court and demanding a trade.
08:17 --> 08:17 [SPEAKER_01]: High pathetic.
08:17 --> 08:18 [SPEAKER_01]: Not that that's happened already.
08:20 --> 08:27 [SPEAKER_02]: There were a couple of texts on the Brock and Salkline this morning about we'll can we get rushed back to Russell Westbrook?
08:27 --> 08:30 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, I hate to break the news to not NBA fans.
08:32 --> 08:35 [SPEAKER_02]: Katie and Russ do not get along.
08:36 --> 08:40 [SPEAKER_01]: No, so it's probably a one or the other and people would want Katie.
08:40 --> 08:45 [SPEAKER_01]: There's only like one photo of Russell Westbrook in a Sonic's uniform.
08:45 --> 08:45 [SPEAKER_01]: The day he was drafted.
08:46 --> 08:48 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he never actually played for the Sonic's.
08:48 --> 08:52 [SPEAKER_02]: He was just drafted when they had technically not moved yet, but they were moving a couple weeks later.
08:52 --> 08:53 [SPEAKER_02]: So yeah.
08:53 --> 08:57 [SPEAKER_02]: Anyway, I do want to start with a little bit of Sonic's talk, because it's a big deal.
08:57 --> 09:01 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a big deal in Seattle sports, just like we spent some time talking, some sea hawks during the playoff run.
09:01 --> 09:02 [SPEAKER_02]: It's a big deal.
09:03 --> 09:22 [SPEAKER_01]: And we wanted to start this episode off on a positive note because the main mayor in our storyline we have to talk about before we get to a great conversation with our friend Paul Hemakitis, Hembo of ESPN is JP Crawford and he had to leave spring training this week because his shoulder was still acting up.
09:22 --> 09:23 [SPEAKER_01]: He went to Dallas.
09:23 --> 09:34 [SPEAKER_01]: and he's seeing Dr. Keith Meister, the guy who was looking at Bryce Miller's elbow last year and helped nurse Bryce back to health so he could pitch in the playoffs.
09:35 --> 09:50 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, JP is getting a shoulder examined by Dr. Meister and he's not with the Mariners right now and given that we are nine days from opening day as of recording, I just don't see how JP Crawford breaks camp with the team.
09:50 --> 09:54 [SPEAKER_01]: He has not gotten enough at bats, and it doesn't seem like he's healthy enough.
09:54 --> 09:57 [SPEAKER_02]: I think it's even more about he hasn't gotten enough time in the field.
09:57 --> 10:01 [SPEAKER_02]: He's had some games at DH, but he has not played enough games at shortstop.
10:02 --> 10:08 [SPEAKER_02]: And the Mariners, they seem to have a way of liking to downplay a lot of injuries.
10:08 --> 10:14 [SPEAKER_02]: Basically, whenever something like this pops up, the word seems to be oh it's not concerning.
10:14 --> 10:17 [SPEAKER_02]: But then, real time gets missed.
10:17 --> 10:19 [SPEAKER_02]: Now, I'm not saying JP's gonna miss real time because we don't know.
10:19 --> 10:21 [SPEAKER_02]: It could really only end up being a couple days.
10:22 --> 10:25 [SPEAKER_02]: But Bryce Miller last year, oh, it's gonna be fine.
10:25 --> 10:26 [SPEAKER_02]: And then he missed a lot of time.
10:26 --> 10:30 [SPEAKER_02]: And Jorge Polanco, oh, he's totally fine.
10:30 --> 10:31 [SPEAKER_02]: He's healthy.
10:31 --> 10:36 [SPEAKER_02]: And then every time a left-handed pitcher was in the game early in the year, they would take him out of the game and didn't let him hit right-handed.
10:36 --> 10:38 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think it was because something was still bothering him.
10:39 --> 10:40 [SPEAKER_02]: Very possible that knee.
10:40 --> 10:45 [SPEAKER_01]: So then answer the question, like that's how that's how you sort of get your head around this.
10:45 --> 10:48 [SPEAKER_01]: What do the Mariners mean by concerning?
10:48 --> 10:53 [SPEAKER_01]: Concerning to me means missing three months slash the year.
10:53 --> 10:55 [SPEAKER_02]: Sorry, no, no, let's be clear.
10:55 --> 10:57 [SPEAKER_02]: They said they're not concerned about JP.
10:57 --> 10:57 [SPEAKER_01]: Right.
10:57 --> 11:00 [SPEAKER_01]: So what would them being concerned actually mean?
11:02 --> 11:10 [SPEAKER_01]: a lot of time being missed because missing a month is not concerning because he'll be fine the rest of the year, but I'm missing three months to missing six months.
11:11 --> 11:19 [SPEAKER_01]: So that's that's just wanted to clarify that because I talked about that in our morning post here on Tuesday, just because they're not concerned doesn't mean.
11:19 --> 11:27 [SPEAKER_01]: He's not going to have ill effects from this and doesn't mean that he's and mean it does not mean that he's not going to miss time like he's going to miss time at this point.
11:27 --> 11:29 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's going to be ready for opening day.
11:29 --> 11:32 [SPEAKER_01]: He's going to need more at bats and he's going to need time in the field.
11:32 --> 11:32 [SPEAKER_01]: How long that is?
11:33 --> 11:33 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
11:34 --> 11:44 [SPEAKER_01]: But right now it seems like the Mariners will be without their starting short stop on opening day and there's a problem with this just kind of like Bryce Miller's oblique injury.
11:44 --> 11:49 [SPEAKER_01]: a shoulder injuries are arguably the worst thing that can happen to any baseball player at any position.
11:51 --> 11:52 [SPEAKER_02]: Let me give you an example.
11:53 --> 11:55 [SPEAKER_02]: JB Crawford in 2024 had a really tough year.
11:56 --> 11:57 [SPEAKER_02]: You remember what was bothering him?
11:59 --> 12:00 [SPEAKER_02]: Shoulder shoulder shoulder.
12:01 --> 12:03 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
12:03 --> 12:14 [SPEAKER_01]: And for a short stop that impacts your defense, it impacts your offense and impacts your swing and it impacts diving to get a ball and throwing a ball across the diamond.
12:15 --> 12:19 [SPEAKER_02]: In 2024, JP Crawford had a 625 OPS for the year.
12:19 --> 12:20 [SPEAKER_02]: And he missed a lot of time.
12:21 --> 12:23 [SPEAKER_02]: He only played in 105 games that year.
12:24 --> 12:25 [SPEAKER_02]: It was not great.
12:26 --> 12:27 [SPEAKER_02]: Shoulders, man.
12:27 --> 12:29 [SPEAKER_02]: I hope it's a low concern level.
12:29 --> 12:33 [SPEAKER_02]: I hope it doesn't linger around, but can't help but sit and wonder.
12:35 --> 12:54 [SPEAKER_01]: We, we're gonna have to, I think, see what J.P. looks like when he comes back, maybe he's fine, maybe he's not, then we can evaluate on that stance, because that's all speculative right now, because we don't know, we just don't know, he has not been diagnosed yet, besides the fact he has, his shoulders, as the Mariners put it, quote unquote, fatigued.
12:55 --> 12:56 [SPEAKER_01]: That's what we have to go off of there.
12:57 --> 13:01 [SPEAKER_01]: The bigger question allows, who's the Mariners starting short stop on opening day, if not him.
13:03 --> 13:05 [SPEAKER_02]: think it'll be Leo Rivas.
13:05 --> 13:07 [SPEAKER_02]: I actually feel decently confident saying that.
13:09 --> 13:15 [SPEAKER_01]: So then the strategy would be Leo Rivas for three weeks until JP comes back.
13:16 --> 13:23 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, or if it's longer, and JP really misses a lot of time this year, which I really hope is not the case because I need his bat.
13:24 --> 13:26 [SPEAKER_02]: But if he were to miss real time,
13:28 --> 13:33 [SPEAKER_02]: You know, Divish always has a saying of baseball works itself out.
13:34 --> 13:41 [SPEAKER_02]: Baseball always has a way of working these things out, and we've wondered all year what the Cold Emerson J.P. Crawford Dynamics can look like when they're both up.
13:42 --> 13:44 [SPEAKER_02]: And we've talked a lot about Cold Emerson playing third.
13:45 --> 13:46 [SPEAKER_02]: I hope this does not happen.
13:46 --> 13:47 [SPEAKER_02]: Let me make this very clear.
13:47 --> 13:56 [SPEAKER_02]: But if J.P. were forced to miss some real time this year, that could just be the
13:57 --> 13:57 [SPEAKER_02]: could be.
13:58 --> 14:04 [SPEAKER_02]: Again, I don't think Cold Emerson makes the opening day roster for as well as he's played in spring training as his good as his looked at times.
14:04 --> 14:11 [SPEAKER_02]: This is a guy who at 20 years old, younger than Julio when he debuted, has only played 40 games above Abel.
14:11 --> 14:13 [SPEAKER_02]: I think Cold Emerson is going to play a real role this year.
14:14 --> 14:17 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm also not itching to rush him into Big League action.
14:17 --> 14:21 [SPEAKER_02]: I want to make sure he is fully ready and all systems go when they call him up.
14:22 --> 14:23 [SPEAKER_02]: Don't rush him out of need.
14:23 --> 14:24 [SPEAKER_02]: Let him go at his timeline.
14:25 --> 14:45 [SPEAKER_01]: I also would prefer Leo Rivas, I think that's the best course for the entire season and also I think for a month Leo Rivas is totally fine, he's going to put up a WRC plus of probably 105 to 110, he's going to walk a little bit and among all these options at short while he might be the best defender of all of them, he's a pretty smooth defender out on the dirt.
14:45 --> 14:46 [SPEAKER_01]: So I'm okay with that.
14:46 --> 14:51 [SPEAKER_01]: He honestly fills that JP Crawford role pretty well at the bottom of the lineup.
14:51 --> 14:52 [SPEAKER_01]: They're going to hit him ninth.
14:52 --> 14:55 [SPEAKER_01]: Leo has the best, what is it?
14:55 --> 14:58 [SPEAKER_01]: It's the best swing distance into on the team pretty much by stats.
14:58 --> 15:08 [SPEAKER_01]: I think in terms of out of zone swing rate, which is a good measure to use when you're looking at how well does someone understand their strike zone, we'll reverse.
15:08 --> 15:09 [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's number one on the team.
15:09 --> 15:15 [SPEAKER_01]: So if we're talking about filling JP Crawford's role, I think Leo Revost would do perfectly fine in JP Crawford's role.
15:16 --> 15:21 [SPEAKER_01]: But also remember this with Colt Emerson, the Mariners do have incentive to put them on the opening day roster.
15:21 --> 15:25 [SPEAKER_01]: They haven't told about two weeks into the season to put them on the roster.
15:25 --> 15:31 [SPEAKER_01]: If they want, given he wins rookie of the year, an extra first round pick in 2027.
15:31 --> 15:33 [SPEAKER_01]: That's that's got to be on their minds.
15:33 --> 15:36 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that's something they're looking past and Colt Homer to again today.
15:36 --> 15:39 [SPEAKER_01]: Well his stats this morning when I did that post weren't great.
15:39 --> 15:47 [SPEAKER_01]: He had about a 690 OPS and wasn't slugging very much in his WRC plus I think was 75 fruit spring.
15:48 --> 15:51 [SPEAKER_01]: He Homer today and his stats look good good again to the spring.
15:52 --> 16:01 [SPEAKER_01]: Now they're not going to use the stats to determine whether or not he's ready, but it doesn't hurt when you hit home runs and spring training games.
16:02 --> 16:11 [SPEAKER_02]: I just would not rush somebody's development, especially somebody that important and that crucial to potentially the next decade of your franchise for an extra draft pick.
16:12 --> 16:22 [SPEAKER_02]: Be very careful, Julio, you knew he was ready, you saw it all spring, he had gotten insanely fast, he had learned to play centerfield, he was torching the baseball, I mean you knew.
16:23 --> 16:25 [SPEAKER_02]: Cold Emerson had looked very good at point to spring training.
16:26 --> 16:32 [SPEAKER_02]: I also don't know if he is totally blown the doors off his spring, where you say he has to be on the roster, he just has to be.
16:32 --> 16:46 [SPEAKER_02]: I think I'm sitting here saying to myself, he has looked totally well, didn't big league spring training, he has not looked overmatched, he has shown you everything to give you every positive sign that he is going to be ready this year to contribute, but maybe don't do a right away.
16:47 --> 16:54 [SPEAKER_02]: Make sure for a month to six weeks into coma, he's hitting and he's comfortable and he's ready to go and you need him.
16:54 --> 16:57 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, we'll know within a week what the Meredith decision is.
16:57 --> 17:01 [SPEAKER_01]: I would say the favorite is Leo Rivas, but I would not count out Cole.
17:01 --> 17:01 [SPEAKER_01]: I wouldn't do it.
17:02 --> 17:05 [SPEAKER_02]: No, and all the other big-time prospects have been sent back to minor league camp.
17:05 --> 17:09 [SPEAKER_02]: Cade, Sloan, Johnny Farmello, Michael, Royal, the one guy left.
17:09 --> 17:13 [SPEAKER_02]: It's Cole Tamerson, and I'm sure he's going to be there until the very, very, very end.
17:14 --> 17:19 [SPEAKER_02]: But if I had to make a wager, I would assume he will start in Triple A.
17:19 --> 17:21 [SPEAKER_02]: And I think that is probably for the best.
17:22 --> 17:24 [SPEAKER_01]: And I feel like there's another option here too.
17:24 --> 17:26 [SPEAKER_01]: He hasn't played short in a couple of years.
17:26 --> 17:26 [SPEAKER_01]: Cole Young.
17:27 --> 17:31 [SPEAKER_01]: Cole Young spent the off season getting a better shape and getting more range on defense.
17:32 --> 17:34 [SPEAKER_01]: Cole Young was drafted as a short stop.
17:34 --> 17:36 [SPEAKER_01]: I listen, listen to Shannon Dreyer on the radio the other day.
17:37 --> 17:40 [SPEAKER_01]: She pointed him out as one of the options at short stop.
17:40 --> 17:41 [SPEAKER_01]: I think his arm is good enough.
17:42 --> 17:45 [SPEAKER_01]: Like, he's not gonna start every game at short stop, but he could.
17:46 --> 17:47 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he could do it in a pinch.
17:48 --> 17:50 [SPEAKER_02]: And on days where Leo Reeves needed an off day,
17:51 --> 18:04 [SPEAKER_02]: there's the world where he could do it and maybe you put bread and don't have an at second and you move some other things around, but I would probably just let Cole Young for the most part stay comfortable at second base.
18:04 --> 18:05 [SPEAKER_02]: If you need him in a pinch, sure.
18:06 --> 18:08 [SPEAKER_01]: But otherwise, I've let him stay.
18:08 --> 18:09 [SPEAKER_01]: But it is an option.
18:09 --> 18:12 [SPEAKER_01]: Did you have more than just two short stop options on the roster?
18:12 --> 18:15 [SPEAKER_01]: Cole, come with your, oh, Donovan can play short.
18:16 --> 18:18 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know what I'm gonna say that.
18:18 --> 18:18 [SPEAKER_01]: Not a challenge.
18:19 --> 18:22 [SPEAKER_01]: I've honestly, well, I think he would play short over Koyao.
18:23 --> 18:23 [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe?
18:24 --> 18:25 [SPEAKER_01]: He's especially because he's a veteran.
18:25 --> 18:26 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
18:26 --> 18:27 [SPEAKER_01]: Unless they need him in the outfield.
18:28 --> 18:28 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
18:28 --> 18:29 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we'll see how it all goes.
18:30 --> 18:30 [SPEAKER_01]: We really well.
18:31 --> 18:36 [SPEAKER_01]: Before we get to Hembo Lyle, rank your concern level for JP Crawford on a scale of 1 to 10.
18:36 --> 18:39 [SPEAKER_02]: Hmm, five.
18:39 --> 18:42 [SPEAKER_02]: I think he probably starts the year on the I.L.
18:43 --> 18:45 [SPEAKER_02]: But I don't think it's a ton of time he ends up missing.
18:45 --> 18:48 [SPEAKER_02]: As we sit here right now, maybe it'll be a couple weeks.
18:49 --> 18:50 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm gonna put mine out of four.
18:50 --> 18:54 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think season long for him being on the field.
18:54 --> 18:57 [SPEAKER_01]: This is a problem, but we just don't know how he's gonna look when he is on the field.
18:57 --> 19:05 [SPEAKER_01]: If his place slacks and it looks like he's not healthy, then that's gonna climb because part of the mayor has success this year is healthy, JP Crawford.
19:05 --> 19:06 [SPEAKER_01]: And right now he's not healthy.
19:06 --> 19:08 [SPEAKER_01]: And in fact, an injury that could nag him.
19:08 --> 19:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Right.
19:10 --> 19:11 [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, for sure.
19:12 --> 19:14 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, we had an awesome combo with Hembo.
19:14 --> 19:15 [SPEAKER_01]: That was awesome.
19:15 --> 19:16 [SPEAKER_01]: Yes, yes, we did.
19:16 --> 19:23 [SPEAKER_01]: He is great for this podcast, because he's like on the same ball knowledge level as us.
19:23 --> 19:23 [SPEAKER_01]: And I love that.
19:24 --> 19:26 [SPEAKER_01]: And he's always got these fun little nuggets.
19:26 --> 19:28 [SPEAKER_01]: He loves Rob Raff Snyder.
19:28 --> 19:30 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not that part's great.
19:31 --> 19:32 [SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, Hembo's got so many good things.
19:33 --> 19:36 [SPEAKER_02]: You're pumping up our ball knowledge here, jeez.
19:36 --> 19:38 [SPEAKER_01]: Our ball, yeah, we know ball, come on.
19:38 --> 19:38 [SPEAKER_02]: We do.
19:39 --> 19:41 [SPEAKER_01]: I hope I think.
19:42 --> 19:45 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, that's to the listeners' discretion.
19:45 --> 19:47 [SPEAKER_01]: Before we get to Hembo to allow, let's pause here for an end.
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20:42 --> 20:47 [SPEAKER_02]: You can also go to prettygoodinspections.com slash marine layer, or by scanning the QR code.
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20:54 --> 20:55 [SPEAKER_01]: won't keep you guys any longer.
20:55 --> 20:57 [SPEAKER_01]: Let's get you to the interview with Hemmo.
20:59 --> 21:04 [SPEAKER_01]: All right, we got our friend Hembo on with us, Paul Hemakitis of get up and ESPN.
21:04 --> 21:06 [SPEAKER_01]: Hembo, thanks for taking some time for us.
21:06 --> 21:11 [SPEAKER_01]: Is this the year we're finally going to get a Philly's Mariners World Series?
21:11 --> 21:12 [SPEAKER_00]: That's going to see you, my friend.
21:12 --> 21:17 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, I always make fun of my good friend, but they're only who makes that prediction seemingly every single year.
21:17 --> 21:18 [SPEAKER_00]: It obviously has
21:18 --> 21:32 [SPEAKER_00]: yet to occur although we got fairly close last year the Mariners I don't need to remind you we're fairly close to the world series one unfortunate swing away and the Dodgers did make light work of my favorite baseball team.
21:32 --> 21:43 [SPEAKER_00]: They played the Dodgers as competitively as any team you basically could in October so Philly's Mariners could happen although at this juncture I would think it's likely or believe it or not that your club reaches a world series then mine.
21:43 --> 21:47 [SPEAKER_00]: I feel awfully good about the Seattle Mariners this year as well you should as well.
21:47 --> 21:52 [SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of weird that we look at fan graphs in the Mariners or second.
21:52 --> 21:54 [SPEAKER_01]: I honestly, second in world series odds.
21:55 --> 21:56 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think I've ever seen that in my life.
21:57 --> 21:58 [SPEAKER_01]: You're a little bit older than we are.
21:59 --> 22:00 [SPEAKER_01]: Do you ever remember it being like that?
22:00 --> 22:01 [SPEAKER_00]: No.
22:01 --> 22:05 [SPEAKER_00]: But as you and I both know, it means next to nothing.
22:05 --> 22:08 [SPEAKER_00]: I think people like us care about those things way more.
22:08 --> 22:11 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm always checking the picota projections, what fan graphs has to say.
22:11 --> 22:13 [SPEAKER_00]: Because at this time of year, all you can do
22:13 --> 22:30 [SPEAKER_00]: is stare at your screen and hope for the best, but I will say that the manners are very well positioned this year, perhaps as well positioned as any in recent memory, not just because they're bringing back such a huge chunk of a really productive core as you know far better than I do.
22:30 --> 22:36 [SPEAKER_00]: But I'm honestly transfixed by the system right now, not only do you have a bunch of top hundred prospects, but there's a bunch of close proximity players.
22:37 --> 22:46 [SPEAKER_00]: And as you guys know, over the course of 162 plus an entire month in the postseason, depth is perhaps the most important attribute of any team with championship aspirations.
22:46 --> 22:50 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think for the first time, and perhaps your lifetime, the Mariners are as deep.
22:50 --> 23:01 [SPEAKER_00]: as any club in baseball, I mean, at least since the 90s, I mean, this team was really good last year and has been building up to this point, but there is not a time at least in my conscious lifetime watching the Seattle Mariners play.
23:01 --> 23:20 [SPEAKER_00]: They've had this combination of present day big league stars and high level contributors, plus, you know, brimming, you know, potential contributors in the minor leagues, who could come up and be impactful this season, it's really the perfect formula, all you can do is guess, all you can do is, you know, wish cast, of course, but this time of year, I feel
23:20 --> 23:23 [SPEAKER_00]: as any club in the American League.
23:23 --> 23:29 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, so let's start there because you're mentioning some of the prospects and some of the fringe guys who jumps off the page when you're thinking of that group.
23:29 --> 23:35 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think the Cold Emerson and Kate Anderson both this year have the chance to be really impactful performers in the month of October.
23:35 --> 23:39 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to get ahead of myself because there are so many veterans.
23:39 --> 23:40 [SPEAKER_00]: There are so many doubt in the world.
23:40 --> 23:44 [SPEAKER_00]: Big Leagueers that the Mariners are going to have in their opening day line at who deserve respect.
23:44 --> 23:49 [SPEAKER_00]: who deserve the starting jobs and this, that and the other, all those formalities aside.
23:49 --> 23:56 [SPEAKER_00]: As a fan, what's most fun, at least for me, is always looking forward to what's next, the hope of it all, the promise of what spring provides.
23:57 --> 24:06 [SPEAKER_00]: And in the Mariners case, those two guys in particular, I could imagine playing a really impactful, consequential role injuries or not to, you know, present day big leaders.
24:06 --> 24:08 [SPEAKER_00]: When you have the opportunity to draft
24:08 --> 24:14 [SPEAKER_00]: Kate Anderson as a club as good as you guys were last year is such a luxury in his proximity to the big leagues.
24:14 --> 24:20 [SPEAKER_00]: The maturity and policy that he has and the screws that the Mariners big league staff will be able to tighten once he gets there.
24:20 --> 24:22 [SPEAKER_00]: Just has me brimming with optimism in his case.
24:23 --> 24:33 [SPEAKER_00]: And in Emerson's case, the combination of 50 or better tools across the board, positional versatility, and the potential that there might be an infield job available, I don't know, six months from now.
24:33 --> 24:36 [SPEAKER_00]: would give me reason to believe that both of those guys could be really impactful.
24:36 --> 24:44 [SPEAKER_00]: Again, not to submerge anybody in the opening daylight for the mariners, but one of the things that the projection systems get wrong in my judgment is their playing time projections.
24:44 --> 24:47 [SPEAKER_00]: We can't know we can't predict some of these things.
24:47 --> 24:55 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's why the clubs that I view is having the most depth and the most double A or triple A talent ready to contribute at the big league level.
24:55 --> 24:59 [SPEAKER_00]: are the clubs that typically wind up winning the day because in baseball atrophy is expected.
24:59 --> 25:06 [SPEAKER_00]: Attrition is a constant in this sport and the older you get, the worse off you are from the perspective of injury lock.
25:06 --> 25:08 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we know that baseball is the young man's game again.
25:08 --> 25:15 [SPEAKER_00]: Now that PEDs are no longer really in the picture and so yet another reason why I'm so optimistic about your club and those two players in particular.
25:16 --> 25:18 [SPEAKER_01]: What does that say about the Mariners trajectory going forward?
25:18 --> 25:23 [SPEAKER_01]: The trajectory is a key wordier, because that's something you mentioned to us before recording, what do you think about it?
25:23 --> 25:25 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the Mariners are well on their way.
25:26 --> 25:31 [SPEAKER_00]: If you were to ask me, which team in the American League is going to win the most games the remainder of the 2020s?
25:32 --> 25:35 [SPEAKER_00]: My answer to that question is definitive, and it is the Seattle Mariners.
25:35 --> 25:42 [SPEAKER_00]: They are so well positioned, not just to win presently, but to win in the immediate future, because they're oozing with surplus talent.
25:42 --> 25:43 [SPEAKER_00]: There is no team in baseball.
25:43 --> 25:44 [SPEAKER_00]: Dodgers included.
25:44 --> 25:47 [SPEAKER_00]: that it's collected more surplus than Jerry DePoto has.
25:47 --> 26:00 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think there's probably some in the fan base that have grown frustrated with his process oriented nature with the fact that ownership has not given him the ability to spend money like a top five say market across majorly baseball.
26:00 --> 26:07 [SPEAKER_00]: And sometimes he said the quiet part out loud, you know, let's get to 85 wins or whatever the exact total was that he wound up biting his lip and saying.
26:08 --> 26:13 [SPEAKER_00]: But when you do that, when you add here to your process and your baseball ethos is as sound as is, well,
26:13 --> 26:15 [SPEAKER_00]: what you wind up doing is building a sustainable winner.
26:16 --> 26:20 [SPEAKER_00]: And over the course of the rest of this decade at least, it's hard to view it much more into the future than that.
26:21 --> 26:34 [SPEAKER_00]: I think we could see the Mariners do something that approximates what the Astro did for all those years in the context of the American League West, and potentially in the American League at large, which is to say every year you are in it, you're dancing, you're in the tournament, you have the opportunity, the most bite at the Apple.
26:34 --> 26:55 [SPEAKER_00]: And Jerry DiPoto, I think, understands that thoroughly, which is why he's not moved off of some of his very best prospects, which is why he's not splurged in free agency, which is why they've inked a lot of young players to somewhat team-friendly extensions with, in Hulio Rodríguez's case, all these bizarre nature of his contract language that he can hit all these different incentives.
26:55 --> 26:57 [SPEAKER_00]: Like, these are the kind of thing.
26:57 --> 27:04 [SPEAKER_00]: Over the course of time, these building blocks that you put in place that give you the potential to win over the course of three or five years.
27:04 --> 27:11 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think the Mariners right now are the beginning of what is going to be perhaps the most successful five year window in the history of the franchise.
27:11 --> 27:21 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, before we start moving into player specific topics here, since you mentioned that the Mariners could do something similar to the Astros, potentially, with all the sustained success that they had.
27:21 --> 27:22 [SPEAKER_02]: Well, we're sticking on AL West teams.
27:23 --> 27:28 [SPEAKER_02]: Are there other teams in the AL West that you look at as a potential threat to the Mariners in the West?
27:28 --> 27:46 [SPEAKER_00]: No, I think the mayors are going to win their division this year by more games than any team in the American League are going to win theirs, inclusive of Toronto, inclusive of Detroit, maybe like the Yankees to come out of the East, maybe like the Red Sox to the Orioles, maybe like the Royals in the American League Central, I believe that the mayors are going to have this division on ice effectively by Labor Day.
27:47 --> 27:51 [SPEAKER_00]: I view they're being a significant gap between the mayors and everyone else in that division.
27:50 --> 27:57 [SPEAKER_00]: that being said, this has long been the asteroid division as you guys know as well as anybody, but I don't think that's going to be the case anymore.
27:58 --> 28:10 [SPEAKER_00]: I suppose there are certain things that could go the Astros way that could enable them to reach the top of the mountain once again in the American League West, but that's a club that has to answer a lot of low probability hypotheticals in order to pull that off.
28:10 --> 28:11 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact,
28:11 --> 28:15 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the Rangers are better positioned if in their second in the AL West this year than the Astros are.
28:15 --> 28:21 [SPEAKER_00]: And the primary reason for it is because the Rangers were far better last year than they're recorded with suggests.
28:21 --> 28:25 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, that was a plus 90 from the perspective of their run differential.
28:25 --> 28:28 [SPEAKER_00]: And this is a team as you well know that has built a really good pitching lab.
28:28 --> 28:30 [SPEAKER_00]: And when you add McKenzie Gort to it,
28:30 --> 28:36 [SPEAKER_00]: to a collection of really good arms that they have already, both veterans and youngsters, they're going to pitch the crap out of the ball.
28:36 --> 28:40 [SPEAKER_00]: And that was the only team in baseball last year with an ARA under three and a half.
28:40 --> 28:47 [SPEAKER_00]: And if you were to ask me just probabilistically, they're going to hit better than they did a year ago because it'd be very difficult for a collection of players that talented, not to.
28:47 --> 28:50 [SPEAKER_00]: As you guys know, the ballpark played very oddly last season.
28:51 --> 28:53 [SPEAKER_00]: I just think there's some positive regression that will occur.
28:53 --> 29:03 [SPEAKER_00]: Even outside of the immediate control of player adjustments and things of that nature just because baseball season right just for lack of a better term in the Astros case I'm curious if you guys agree with me.
29:03 --> 29:07 [SPEAKER_00]: I view their pitching staff as being Something of a lightning rod.
29:07 --> 29:15 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there's only one thing that I know for sure and it's that hunter-browns going to shove But beyond hunter-brown, I don't really know what that's who you e-mise going to give me.
29:15 --> 29:22 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't really know what Mike Burroughs is going to give me I don't really know how healthy Josh Hader is going to be and for as much as I like some of the bats
29:22 --> 29:27 [SPEAKER_00]: All of those guys, or at least many of them, had been prone to injuries in recent years as well.
29:27 --> 29:33 [SPEAKER_00]: Not to mention the fact that there's sort of a collection of misfit toys in the infield, but no obvious place to play e-sock parades.
29:33 --> 29:46 [SPEAKER_00]: The Mariners are by far the best constructed team in the American League of West, which is to say, I think they're going to win the West by something that rhymes with 10 or 12 games, and that when we look up the standing's at the end of the season, you're going to see the range or second in the Astros third.
29:47 --> 29:53 [SPEAKER_01]: And the Astros projected best player for the subcoming season is as good as his bat is an oft-injured DH.
29:54 --> 29:57 [SPEAKER_01]: So like, where's the value going to come from with them?
29:57 --> 29:57 [SPEAKER_01]: I'm with you, humble.
29:57 --> 30:01 [SPEAKER_01]: I don't really, I don't really buy the Astros unless that pitching staff.
30:02 --> 30:05 [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it fires on all cylinders and they hit their best case scenario.
30:05 --> 30:07 [SPEAKER_01]: But I don't know if I see that this year.
30:08 --> 30:09 [SPEAKER_01]: Here's another question for you.
30:09 --> 30:14 [SPEAKER_01]: How does this team and the Mariners stack up against the other teams in the American League not just the West?
30:14 --> 30:31 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, at least fairly well, there's no club that distance themselves this offseason because no one in the American League really spends money hand over fist away that we see the Dodgers and the Mads and the Phillies and the Padres do in the National League, which is to say the Mariners aren't competing with the Goliaths from the perspective of spending.
30:31 --> 30:35 [SPEAKER_00]: They can't be outspend, at least not as directly as say the Dodgers can outspend you.
30:35 --> 30:39 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the Yankees had a very unremarkable offseason, but that's going to be a 90-win club because of the Yankees.
30:40 --> 30:41 [SPEAKER_00]: The BlueJays were very active.
30:41 --> 30:43 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure they got better.
30:43 --> 30:49 [SPEAKER_00]: I love the acquisition of Frogger Valdez and Detroit, but the lineup is still somewhat ordinary.
30:49 --> 30:53 [SPEAKER_00]: As you know, I'm not terribly enchanted by the other clubs in the American League West.
30:53 --> 30:57 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think the pipeline is about a straightforward as it gets.
30:57 --> 31:07 [SPEAKER_00]: for the Mariners in the context of the American League, what's going to be curious to me is when that attrition naturally occurs, when the under-performance naturally occurs, is Jerry depoto going to be willing to break the model.
31:07 --> 31:11 [SPEAKER_00]: Is he going to be willing to make a model breaking trade at the deadline that goes against his religion?
31:11 --> 31:18 [SPEAKER_00]: Is he going to be willing to spend 150 cents on the dollar to add a piece or two of necessary to sort of nudge his team across the finish line?
31:18 --> 31:19 [SPEAKER_00]: that I don't know.
31:19 --> 31:21 [SPEAKER_00]: That has been somewhat out of his character really up until last year.
31:22 --> 31:24 [SPEAKER_00]: And we saw last year that was something of a mixed bag.
31:24 --> 31:27 [SPEAKER_00]: There was a lot of pressure to add and Josh Nailer worked and honestly A.U.
31:27 --> 31:27 [SPEAKER_00]: A.U.
31:27 --> 31:28 [SPEAKER_00]: A.U.
31:28 --> 31:28 [SPEAKER_00]: A.U.
31:28 --> 31:28 [SPEAKER_00]: A.U.
31:28 --> 31:31 [SPEAKER_00]: A.S. War as a side from once-winging the postseason really did it.
31:31 --> 31:33 [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm not exactly sure what the learn is there.
31:33 --> 31:37 [SPEAKER_00]: I can't tell you that I think this club has the clearest path to winning a division title for sure.
31:38 --> 31:41 [SPEAKER_00]: And in the context of what a playoff series might look like.
31:41 --> 31:46 [SPEAKER_00]: I do believe that their pitching staff is well positioned to get high level outs, both the starters and the relievers.
31:46 --> 31:52 [SPEAKER_00]: I think what you wind up getting in Jose Ferraris, very impactful at the back end of the bullpen truly.
31:52 --> 31:56 [SPEAKER_00]: And as I mentioned, I think Kate Anderson's going to contribute in a positive way, potentially even in the rotation.
31:56 --> 31:58 [SPEAKER_00]: Come October, there might be too much to ask.
31:58 --> 32:09 [SPEAKER_00]: But even if not, as you guys know, I mean, Brian Muayev is a top 10 pitcher and perhaps Logan Gilbert's new splinter is going to wind up being something that produces positive results for him and so on and so forth down the line.
32:09 --> 32:11 [SPEAKER_00]: There's just so many darts that you can throw.
32:11 --> 32:20 [SPEAKER_00]: One of the things I like most about this Mariners Club is that the answer to the question, how many ways can you win so much more positively than any other club in the American League?
32:20 --> 32:26 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not about can you win when things are optimized for you or can you win when you are on your very best?
32:26 --> 32:35 [SPEAKER_00]: The Mariners now have the ability from the perspective of pitching depth and from the perspective of run scoring diversity to be able to beat you in a multitude of ways where that was not always the case.
32:36 --> 32:40 [SPEAKER_00]: There was a time in which they could only beat you forward to two in a postseason context, but not eight to six.
32:40 --> 32:41 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that's the case anymore.
32:42 --> 32:46 [SPEAKER_00]: There was a time in which they could only beat you if they got five shuddy from their starter in a postseason context.
32:46 --> 32:47 [SPEAKER_00]: That's not the case anymore.
32:47 --> 32:51 [SPEAKER_00]: There was a time in which their offense couldn't overcome the bullpen blowing a lot late lead.
32:51 --> 33:00 [SPEAKER_00]: That's not the case anymore either, which is to say, I'm going through all these hypotheticals because when you look at fan graphs right now, you see the projections and you imagine them very too dimensionally.
33:00 --> 33:07 [SPEAKER_00]: But as you guys know, baseball season is a long, big, huge, breathing organism and there's no way to know what's going to hit you until it does.
33:08 --> 33:17 [SPEAKER_00]: And from the perspective of being able to respond to whatever stimulus to season throws at you, I think the Mariners are well positioned to do so, perhaps better than any club in the American League.
33:17 --> 33:24 [SPEAKER_02]: how much is Brendan Donovan help with that versatility that you're talking about and that you just described about not being so one or two-dimensional.
33:24 --> 33:33 [SPEAKER_00]: Considerably, if Jerry DiPoto was looking to land the ideal three-wind player for his club, I don't know that he could have done better.
33:33 --> 33:34 [SPEAKER_00]: then bread and down.
33:34 --> 33:40 [SPEAKER_00]: There might not have been a move this off season that was more roundly praised and highly regarded around the industry than this one.
33:40 --> 33:54 [SPEAKER_00]: And for good reason, he's such a high probability bet because there are so many things about him that I know, and I'm a huge believer in making bets that are likely to catch for obvious reasons, especially dealing with the somewhat limited budget that you are.
33:55 --> 34:02 [SPEAKER_00]: I know for sure he can play two or three or even four positions at an average or better level, which is something that you can only say about so many guys in this league.
34:02 --> 34:07 [SPEAKER_00]: I know for sure that two-thirds of not three-fourths of the time, he's going to obliterate the big side of the platoon.
34:07 --> 34:11 [SPEAKER_00]: His numbers are going to try to hit a pitching as you guys know as well as I do, are tremendous.
34:12 --> 34:20 [SPEAKER_00]: And as you guys also know, from watching hittershuggle in that home park of yours, it's a lot easier for lefties to acclimate themselves there than righties are.
34:20 --> 34:27 [SPEAKER_00]: And from the perspective of just seeing the ball off that hitters eye, I want to load up as many left-handed hitters as I can, frankly, and Brennan Donovan does it really well.
34:28 --> 34:32 [SPEAKER_00]: So just from the perspective of how many ways we can win, how many ways
34:32 --> 34:44 [SPEAKER_00]: I went that guy hitting in a top third of the order for me, two-thirds of not three-fourths of the time, and the fact that he is somewhat different than guys that you've been attracted to, who historically, from the perspective of Boomer Bust for lack of a better term, is something that's really attractive.
34:44 --> 35:00 [SPEAKER_00]: If he's in a run of three-fifty or a 360 on-base percentage and play value-positive defense at three or four positions, he might not be the kind of guy that you enjoy watching in a game or in a week or in a month, but over the course of 162, his game is much more easily enjoyed when you look at the end of the season and say,
35:00 --> 35:02 [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, it was with 4.2 wins for us.
35:02 --> 35:03 [SPEAKER_00]: I didn't realize it was that great.
35:03 --> 35:06 [SPEAKER_00]: The lay fan might say something that rhymes with that.
35:06 --> 35:07 [SPEAKER_00]: I think he's a tremendous addition.
35:07 --> 35:14 [SPEAKER_00]: And look, the park effects are something that new hitters seemingly always struggle with or at least asked about in Seattle.
35:14 --> 35:16 [SPEAKER_00]: But again, I think his platoon advantage really does help him there.
35:17 --> 35:19 [SPEAKER_00]: There's something obvious in his career road.
35:19 --> 35:24 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm excuse me, home, daytime, nighttime splits, that suggests there's anything with his vision.
35:24 --> 35:29 [SPEAKER_00]: That would be often so you don't really know until you try it.
35:29 --> 35:30 [SPEAKER_00]: and you're one which I do expect.
35:31 --> 35:41 [SPEAKER_00]: I could easily see depot a looking to extend him to a fairly team friendly deal the way that I think he signed Josh Nailer as a free agent this off season and the way that we saw him extend Luis Castillo once upon a time.
35:41 --> 35:47 [SPEAKER_00]: When he identifies someone in the trade market that he covet, he often extends him as you guys know where that I do.
35:47 --> 35:55 [SPEAKER_01]: In this scenario though, I think it's less so when Low and I have a worry about his offensive aggression, it's not the fact that he hits left-handed, which you make really good point.
35:55 --> 36:00 [SPEAKER_01]: Their lefties, Josh Neal, are prime example of accoladed a little bit better than right-handers have.
36:00 --> 36:02 [SPEAKER_01]: It's more the type of hit or Brennan Donovan is.
36:03 --> 36:09 [SPEAKER_01]: When you hit, when you're able to hit home runs a teamable park, the park stacks up like right in the middle of Major League Baseball in terms of
36:09 --> 36:11 [SPEAKER_01]: hitters producing home runs.
36:11 --> 36:18 [SPEAKER_01]: But and all the things Bernie Donovan does really well, which is walk, hit singles, hit doubles, and it triples, it's near the bottom.
36:18 --> 36:24 [SPEAKER_01]: So is there any positive reassurance you can give us that that factor itself will not have a big impact?
36:24 --> 36:28 [SPEAKER_00]: I just think you can't exclusively build your baseball team around the extremes.
36:28 --> 36:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I think you guys know that perhaps better than any fan base because you've seen that notion try and fail many, many times.
36:35 --> 36:38 [SPEAKER_00]: We'll bring Brendan Donovan's slash line be optimized in Seattle.
36:39 --> 36:40 [SPEAKER_00]: No, probably not.
36:41 --> 36:46 [SPEAKER_00]: However, in relation to other alternatives, he is far better.
36:46 --> 36:50 [SPEAKER_00]: than most because he's at least coming in with those skills being at something of a premium.
36:50 --> 36:54 [SPEAKER_00]: So let's say on the 28 to 80 scale you put his plate skills at a 60.
36:54 --> 36:56 [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe they play as a 55 in that home park.
36:56 --> 37:01 [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, but a 55 in that home park, if you're grading it on a curve, we know it's better than a 55.
37:01 --> 37:11 [SPEAKER_00]: Everything has to be credited and debited in that same way, and now obviously we have all the data, all the information to be able to neutralize your batting line accordingly, so that you're not being penalized for it.
37:11 --> 37:21 [SPEAKER_00]: But if you're going to sit here and tell me that these skills that he has might not play up as much there, well, if you were to find someone who has average comparable skills, well, they're going to play below average.
37:21 --> 37:21 [SPEAKER_00]: in that ballpark.
37:21 --> 37:25 [SPEAKER_00]: So, in my judgment, what you need to do in that context is overindex.
37:25 --> 37:36 [SPEAKER_00]: They've overindexed in Brendan Anovan's case, and I believe that even if at the end of the season, he might look at a slash line and say, this is not the optimal place for me to hit from a team building perspective.
37:36 --> 37:39 [SPEAKER_00]: He's the optimal player and kind of player the try and obtain.
37:41 --> 37:43 [SPEAKER_02]: What is the reasonable here comes a load of question?
37:44 --> 37:45 [SPEAKER_02]: But we've asked everybody at all, off season.
37:46 --> 37:49 [SPEAKER_02]: What is a reasonable expectation for Calarale in 2026?
37:49 --> 37:52 [SPEAKER_00]: OK, a fascinating question, a loaded question.
37:52 --> 37:57 [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm not a, look, I have to admit, I've not heard what others have said in terms of answering this question.
37:57 --> 37:59 [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm curious if it will vary from those folks.
38:00 --> 38:03 [SPEAKER_00]: But I decided to try and do this, at least part, in parts scientifically.
38:03 --> 38:08 [SPEAKER_00]: So what I looked at was the five best other catching seasons in history.
38:08 --> 38:15 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm just using F4 as my proxy because it gets you all the names that his 2025 season is most closely associated with.
38:15 --> 38:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Those being in order of F4, Buster Posey in 2012, Johnny Bench in 1972,
38:23 --> 38:33 [SPEAKER_00]: Mike Piazza in 1997, Gary Carter in 1982, and Joe Maurer in 2009, a veritable who's who of the best catching seasons of all time.
38:34 --> 38:41 [SPEAKER_00]: Just as a catch all, like some of the best catchers of at least recent years, last 50 plus years, and how they perform the next season.
38:41 --> 38:45 [SPEAKER_00]: And I have to admit that the results were even better than I would have expected.
38:45 --> 38:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Now we're talking about five legends.
38:47 --> 38:49 [SPEAKER_00]: So I wouldn't have expected considerable regression by any means.
38:50 --> 38:59 [SPEAKER_00]: But I just want you guys to take a gander at the average war output and the average WRC plus the very next season for those five guys.
38:59 --> 39:02 [SPEAKER_00]: So all I did was add up their F wars the season after their best season.
39:02 --> 39:03 [SPEAKER_00]: divide it by five.
39:04 --> 39:06 [SPEAKER_00]: I did the exact same thing with their league adjusted bad in line.
39:06 --> 39:13 [SPEAKER_00]: So TJ, what do you take a guess as to the average war output for those five guys, the season after their all-time great season?
39:14 --> 39:15 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to say five.
39:16 --> 39:17 [SPEAKER_00]: The answer is 6.1.
39:17 --> 39:20 [SPEAKER_00]: Well, what do you take a look at the Gander at the WRC plus?
39:21 --> 39:23 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's call it.
39:23 --> 39:25 [SPEAKER_00]: 140, the answer's 131.
39:26 --> 39:35 [SPEAKER_00]: So in the subsequent season of the five best catching seasons of all time, the average output was 6.1 F4, with a 131 WRC plus.
39:35 --> 39:41 [SPEAKER_00]: Now without any calorie context, if I spat that to that line back in your face, would you take it or would you leave it?
39:41 --> 39:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Do you think you have a better or worse season than what history tells you he'll have?
39:46 --> 39:47 [SPEAKER_00]: I would say.
39:47 --> 39:50 [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, if he does that, give me that.
39:50 --> 39:56 [SPEAKER_02]: seven days of a week in twice on Sunday, six war and a 130 something WRC plus yeah.
39:56 --> 39:57 [SPEAKER_00]: It'd be hard to dispute, right?
39:57 --> 40:06 [SPEAKER_00]: It would be very difficult to sit here and say, I'll take the field because he could be marvelous this year and have a 5.5 win season.
40:07 --> 40:09 [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's in the company of the mortals, of the all-time grace.
40:10 --> 40:14 [SPEAKER_00]: What he did last season is gonna be etched in stone for hundreds of years.
40:14 --> 40:18 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, what I don't know, and what you're more equipped to answer than I am certainly is,
40:18 --> 40:20 [SPEAKER_00]: But how much exactly is he going to be in the crouch?
40:20 --> 40:27 [SPEAKER_00]: Because that is what I would be most concerned about, is that we're in terror in August and September as we saw last year.
40:27 --> 40:32 [SPEAKER_00]: I think they did a fairly good job of keeping him as fresh as possible, but we know he prefers to be in the crouch.
40:32 --> 40:36 [SPEAKER_00]: We know the importance of catching the season with the ABS, and we know that he hits better.
40:36 --> 40:37 [SPEAKER_00]: in that spot.
40:37 --> 40:43 [SPEAKER_00]: So, like I added it all up last year if you take his regular season and his play-offs, he caught nearly 1 innings.
40:43 --> 40:50 [SPEAKER_00]: There's no way, at least not in my judgment, that I could justify putting him out there again for another 1 innings behind the plate.
40:51 --> 40:56 [SPEAKER_00]: Unless I'm making a deep run in October, and of course in that case, you're sticking him behind the plate every single game.
40:56 --> 40:57 [SPEAKER_00]: What do you guys think?
40:58 --> 41:07 [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you're 100% right that logic suggests exactly what you're saying, but if you talk to Calman, he does not want to be taken out behind the plate.
41:07 --> 41:14 [SPEAKER_02]: So it is an interesting war that the Mariners are going to have to battle this year in terms of managing the innings and also giving Cal what he wants.
41:15 --> 41:17 [SPEAKER_01]: In the back of options, Hembo are just not good.
41:17 --> 41:24 [SPEAKER_01]: There's no Danny Johnson to throw back there and get above average production as a catcher.
41:24 --> 41:30 [SPEAKER_01]: Well, we still don't know who the mariner's back-up catcher is going to be, but none of them are making more than a million dollars.
41:30 --> 41:31 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, thank you.
41:31 --> 41:43 [SPEAKER_00]: I don't see the hairy, I mean, from afar, the hairy four trade and the player that you identified in the hairy four trade suggests to me that Calerol is not moving off catcher anytime soon.
41:44 --> 41:44 [SPEAKER_00]: No.
41:44 --> 41:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Might you be able to sell him?
41:46 --> 42:01 [SPEAKER_00]: on having a salvador Perez type approach to a season where you catch 110, 115 games, we ensure that you are 100% in the postseason and take like a sort of like an NBA superstar approach.
42:01 --> 42:04 [SPEAKER_00]: Kauai Leonard in 2019 might be the best example.
42:04 --> 42:07 [SPEAKER_00]: The point being, let's optimize your batting line during the season.
42:07 --> 42:12 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's get you out of the crouch, the 8th and 9th inning games that are relatively speaking already decided.
42:12 --> 42:24 [SPEAKER_00]: If you can do things like that, I do think that Cal is a smart enough guy to understand that we are now living in a world in which this is a 90-wint team off the bus in the spring.
42:24 --> 42:30 [SPEAKER_00]: What matters most is me being myself at the very end of the season, I'd love to see cooler heads prevail.
42:30 --> 42:37 [SPEAKER_00]: Them sell him on catching fewer than 1 innings in the regular season, but of course, part of what makes Cal Cal is the fact that he doesn't view the world the same way that I do.
42:38 --> 42:43 [SPEAKER_01]: If you're going to take a Gander Hembo, who's going to have a better season by war, Cal or Julio?
42:44 --> 42:54 [SPEAKER_00]: Julio is going to accumulate more more than Cal Raleh's, but that's largely because of the extraordinary defense he plays in the outfield and the fact that he'll play every single day there.
42:54 --> 42:59 [SPEAKER_00]: He is still merely a good hitter and not a great one, a topic that you and I have discussed many times.
43:00 --> 43:09 [SPEAKER_00]: Every national person every year this time, predicts he's going to have an eight or nine win season, not really ever having dove into the fact that the swing just isn't quite prepared.
43:09 --> 43:09 [SPEAKER_00]: for him to do that.
43:09 --> 43:17 [SPEAKER_00]: Now, there might be a season in which it all just clicks, and he can string together six months, like we've seen him string together two or three months.
43:17 --> 43:28 [SPEAKER_00]: But the good thing is that even if he only, in air quotes, of course, produces a batting line 25 or 30% of our average, he's going to accumulate work as all of his other antillary skills are through the roof, or totally off the charts.
43:28 --> 43:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I would love to see him just pop a 155 WRC plus one year and run eight and a half or nine win season, because I think it's in his bag.
43:35 --> 43:38 [SPEAKER_00]: because we've seen it over a prolonged period of time.
43:38 --> 43:42 [SPEAKER_00]: But in his case, it's the regular of the season that really drags him down.
43:42 --> 43:45 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think in addition to playing half his games in a very difficult place in which to hit.
43:47 --> 43:50 [SPEAKER_02]: Let me do one more either or with you since he did just throw a good one at you.
43:51 --> 43:54 [SPEAKER_02]: I'll go to the pitching side, Logan Gilbert or Brian Wu in 2026.
43:55 --> 43:59 [SPEAKER_00]: Brian Wu, you know how much I love that fastball dance in a top-to-zone.
43:59 --> 44:04 [SPEAKER_00]: I think that Brian Wu last year established himself as a clear and obvious top 10 picture in the entire sport.
44:04 --> 44:16 [SPEAKER_00]: That being said, Logan Gilbert 2026 season eminently fascinates me because he went for being for my money at least among the most underrated pictures in the entire sport across the 23 and 24 seasons.
44:16 --> 44:20 [SPEAKER_00]: To being someone who flat out disappointed last year, at least from afar.
44:20 --> 44:20 [SPEAKER_00]: Was he bad?
44:21 --> 44:21 [SPEAKER_00]: No.
44:21 --> 44:23 [SPEAKER_00]: But by his standards, he was ordinary.
44:23 --> 44:28 [SPEAKER_00]: And there's no way you could sit here and tell me in an honest moment that he felt positively about his 20, 25 season.
44:28 --> 44:30 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, he's talked about that on the record some.
44:30 --> 44:31 [SPEAKER_00]: And I think he's right.
44:31 --> 44:33 [SPEAKER_00]: He can be better and likely will be better.
44:33 --> 44:44 [SPEAKER_00]: What I don't know is if we're going to get a version of him in which his ladder becomes the pitch that it was just thigh a ballacle two years ago, or if it's going to be something of an ordinary offering as it was last year.
44:44 --> 44:47 [SPEAKER_00]: And that's something that's very difficult for me to know from afar.
44:47 --> 44:56 [SPEAKER_00]: you guys, if I'm sure seen and read the same things that I have regarding the introduction of this splinter into his pitch mix, it's impossible to say exactly how that's going to impact him.
44:56 --> 45:00 [SPEAKER_00]: The trackman data can only tell you so much until you're in the fog of war, you really don't know.
45:01 --> 45:07 [SPEAKER_00]: But the fascinating part of his profile to me is that in 2024, his slider was plus plus, it was a plus 10.
45:07 --> 45:09 [SPEAKER_00]: from the perspective of run value.
45:09 --> 45:10 [SPEAKER_00]: The leeks lug 385 against it.
45:11 --> 45:17 [SPEAKER_00]: As you guys know, the leeks lug's 510 against that pitch last year, went from being a plus 12 to a minus one.
45:18 --> 45:23 [SPEAKER_00]: That's a huge swing, an enormous swing, because we know the fastball plays up and always well.
45:23 --> 45:32 [SPEAKER_00]: But where it really manifested is in the hitters counts, in the even counts, he still puts you away when you get to two strikes, but in order to be a well-rounded pitcher,
45:32 --> 45:35 [SPEAKER_00]: You need multiple average or better offerings and some pitchability, of course.
45:36 --> 45:40 [SPEAKER_00]: Last year we saw that Wayne really for the first time in a few years in his case.
45:40 --> 45:46 [SPEAKER_00]: So he becomes a fascinating case study to me because we know he knows how to optimize his pitch mix and the fastball still plays up.
45:47 --> 45:48 [SPEAKER_00]: The foundation is still there.
45:49 --> 45:56 [SPEAKER_00]: But without the benefit of having that double plus slider which can just wipe you off the table and you can throw the rightees and leftees alike, I don't really know.
45:56 --> 45:59 [SPEAKER_00]: if he's going to play like an ace or if he's going to play like a mid-rotation starter.
45:59 --> 46:03 [SPEAKER_00]: Is there a world in which the Mariners can win the world series or at least get there if he's merely ordinary?
46:03 --> 46:04 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
46:04 --> 46:09 [SPEAKER_00]: But I think you and I would agree that it's far more likely probabilistically than if the Mariners win the penit.
46:09 --> 46:12 [SPEAKER_00]: He's at least a large part of the reason why they got there.
46:12 --> 46:13 [SPEAKER_01]: Is there a brand woo.
46:14 --> 46:14 [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, go ahead.
46:15 --> 46:18 [SPEAKER_02]: Oh, I was just going to say about Logan that I think this year is going to be very telling.
46:18 --> 46:29 [SPEAKER_02]: How much the injuries last year played into the fact of his slider value just dropping off because he missed a few starts with a four arm injury last year and obviously four arms or type of thing that.
46:29 --> 46:37 [SPEAKER_02]: you get into some of your secondary pitches, you put a lot of emphasis on that right arm, and it can turn something sideways at times.
46:37 --> 46:48 [SPEAKER_02]: So I'll be very curious if it was a real trend that we saw with Logan if his slider just doesn't have the same value anymore, or maybe he just couldn't get the same level of break on it and effect on it that he had in years prior.
46:48 --> 46:54 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's a well-made point, and that's actually something worth underscoring because something that,
46:54 --> 47:02 [SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't say disappoints me these days, but something that I always circle these days is if a picture is less than 100% we know it and they know it.
47:02 --> 47:04 [SPEAKER_00]: Can you still win?
47:04 --> 47:08 [SPEAKER_00]: I've talked to so many pictures over the years and let's call it a 30th start sample.
47:09 --> 47:11 [SPEAKER_00]: We know that about a third of the time you're going to have your best off.
47:11 --> 47:16 [SPEAKER_00]: about a third of the time you're going to have average stuff and about a third of the time you're going to have below average stuff.
47:16 --> 47:21 [SPEAKER_00]: To me like the right question when it comes to Logan Gilbert is not how good is your good.
47:21 --> 47:26 [SPEAKER_00]: If he's good, it's seven innings, it's one run, it's nine strikeouts, it's one walk.
47:26 --> 47:30 [SPEAKER_00]: It's not even how is your average because that's still a good item, it's a quality start.
47:30 --> 47:31 [SPEAKER_00]: How good is your bad?
47:31 --> 47:33 [SPEAKER_00]: Is the most important answer to Logan Gilbert's question this year?
47:33 --> 47:35 [SPEAKER_00]: Is it three and a third in five runs?
47:36 --> 47:37 [SPEAKER_00]: Or is it five runs?
47:38 --> 47:43 [SPEAKER_00]: Two earned, stranded a bunch of guys, give her team a chance to win, you know, leave the field with the game tied.
47:43 --> 47:47 [SPEAKER_00]: The answer to that question is far more important than how good is he when he's optimized?
47:47 --> 47:51 [SPEAKER_00]: He's such a competitor that I do believe that he has bad in his bag.
47:51 --> 47:53 [SPEAKER_00]: But what he needs to be able to avoid this year is that blow-up start.
47:53 --> 48:06 [SPEAKER_00]: It's at three and a third, five runs, two homers, you know, once you see some traffic on the basis, then he starts to overalign certain things that feel better or worse that day, rather than just go out and freaking compete.
48:07 --> 48:15 [SPEAKER_00]: Because look, we are so data crazed now and look, you're talking to someone for whom the Twitter egghead should be my profile picture.
48:15 --> 48:18 [SPEAKER_00]: I love the numbers as much as literally anybody on earth.
48:18 --> 48:22 [SPEAKER_00]: But there's still a beauty to the competition here.
48:22 --> 48:23 [SPEAKER_00]: There's just a warfair between picture and header.
48:24 --> 48:32 [SPEAKER_00]: And I want to see Logan go about there or compete this season when you know it doesn't have his best stuff in the second inning and the opponents know that too, when you check the iPad and the IVB is not where it is.
48:32 --> 48:35 [SPEAKER_00]: And the slide is not biting as it typically does.
48:35 --> 48:36 [SPEAKER_00]: Can you still go out there or can the P?
48:36 --> 48:37 [SPEAKER_00]: Can you still go out there and win?
48:37 --> 48:38 [SPEAKER_00]: That's the guy I want to see this year.
48:38 --> 48:41 [SPEAKER_00]: Those 10 starts are to be the most telling.
48:41 --> 48:45 [SPEAKER_00]: And those are going to be the start that determined how good his pitching line is in 2026.
48:45 --> 48:50 [SPEAKER_01]: If you were to pick one of George Kirby or Bryce Miller to bounce back this year, which one would have they?
48:50 --> 48:57 [SPEAKER_00]: Probably Bryce Miller, you guys know I view Kirby more as a mid-rotation starter based on the fact that I view him as a strike thrower, not a strike creator.
48:57 --> 49:02 [SPEAKER_00]: I've seen nothing in his profile in recent years to suggest that he's going to be anything different than that.
49:03 --> 49:14 [SPEAKER_00]: The pitcher who I comp him to most frequently, as you guys know, because we've had the discussions that rhyme with this before, is Ernaula of the Phillies, a person whose year
49:14 --> 49:43 [SPEAKER_00]: Suggest he should be at number two, but his ERA is always higher than it should be primarily because he lives in his own too much and allows too many solo home runs Bryce Miller has a kind of stuff profile that suggests to me that if he's healthy and I think he does have to be he's not someone that I view is having the opportunity to Tough it out for 25 stars if he's only at a let's say see minus version of himself I think the stuff could play up there in a big way and he could actually be in position to start a postseason game over George Kirby if that stuff is optimized in September or October
49:43 --> 49:50 [SPEAKER_00]: I understand the infatuation that Mayor Erner's fans have with Kirby, especially those who live in a sabre metric world as I do.
49:50 --> 49:58 [SPEAKER_00]: But at the end of the day, the objective is to score and prevent runs, and I don't think Kirby does that as effectively as he should for someone with the stuff profile that he boasts.
49:59 --> 50:08 [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, Hambo, you told us you had, I don't know if you wanna call it a hot take, but something a little off the beaten path in terms of an opinion that you have about the Mariners entering 2026.
50:09 --> 50:12 [SPEAKER_02]: So we're starting to near the end of this podcast and the end of this interview.
50:12 --> 50:14 [SPEAKER_02]: We've saved it, but let's hear it.
50:14 --> 50:22 [SPEAKER_00]: I have to admit, I shot my shot a bit earlier of the podcast when I told you that I think the Mariners are going to be the most successful team in the American League across the rest of the 2020s.
50:22 --> 50:34 [SPEAKER_00]: I was considering going all first take on you and guaranteeing something or telling you to book to request off worth the day of the inevitable parade or some such nonsense.
50:34 --> 50:35 [SPEAKER_00]: I can't do it.
50:35 --> 50:43 [SPEAKER_00]: We live in a Dodgers world and I can't sit here in good conscience and tell you, I think the Mariners are going to beat the Dodgers four times in a seven-game span at the beginning of November.
50:43 --> 50:51 [SPEAKER_00]: What I will tell you is that from afar, and this is where I sit, you guys live in the weeds in the day-to-day of this far more than I do because you're obsessed with this team as you well should.
50:52 --> 51:06 [SPEAKER_00]: But when I look at surplus value, and when I look at depth, and when I look at all the components of team building that I adhere to, and the components that I think are most predictive of present and future success, the Mariners are in a different class from every team and the American League right now.
51:06 --> 51:17 [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, I would go as far as to say that in relation to all those other clubs that you asked me about earlier, the Mariners are going to finish with the best record in the American League this year, and they're going to do it multiple times to rest of this decade.
51:17 --> 51:29 [SPEAKER_00]: Again, I'm making sort of high brow predictions from afar, but I'm confident in saying that from the perspective of present day roster and future assets, the Mariners are better position now to win than they've been.
51:29 --> 51:34 [SPEAKER_00]: I would probably say going all the way back to the mid-90s when we know how great and loaded those teams were.
51:34 --> 51:43 [SPEAKER_00]: The difference between those teams and this one, those teams had more high level, young talent, and this team has more high level depth.
51:43 --> 51:48 [SPEAKER_00]: And ultimately, I view depth as being the thing that matters most in terms of building a sustainable winner.
51:48 --> 51:52 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the winners are well positioned to be that way for the next three or four years at a minimum.
51:52 --> 51:53 [SPEAKER_01]: Last one for me, Hembo.
51:54 --> 51:58 [SPEAKER_01]: If you were to paint a picture how this team could beat the Dodgers in a seven game series, what would it be?
51:59 --> 52:11 [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's a very challenging question, but in all likelihood, it's going to be you ask for them in the 7th and 9th innings, and in order to do that, of course, you're going to have to mix and match effectively, and in order to do that, of course, you're going to need 11 or 12 bats that you trust.
52:11 --> 52:17 [SPEAKER_00]: One of the reasons I like the Rob Ress Nighter edition so much is because when I had every three or four games, I'm getting a cleanup editor.
52:17 --> 52:22 [SPEAKER_00]: now he's not successfully pinch it much in the past and he's pinched it a good amount not successfully.
52:22 --> 52:28 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm curious if that's going to change at all this year or something to sort of keep in mind as you guys look at a stat line throughout the season.
52:28 --> 52:35 [SPEAKER_00]: He thinks it's a marvelous player who for a $6 million contract might want to have having a $6 million a bat sometime at the end of October.
52:35 --> 52:37 [SPEAKER_00]: He's that kind of good.
52:37 --> 52:42 [SPEAKER_00]: But ultimately, what you have to wind up doing is some approximation of what we saw the Blue J's do last year.
52:42 --> 52:43 [SPEAKER_00]: Let's keep in mind.
52:43 --> 52:44 [SPEAKER_00]: This team is not invincible.
52:44 --> 52:45 [SPEAKER_00]: The Dodgers didn't break baseball.
52:45 --> 52:48 [SPEAKER_00]: I can't believe it was just a little too short.
52:48 --> 52:50 [SPEAKER_00]: Andy Pa has his jump was just a little too good.
52:50 --> 52:54 [SPEAKER_00]: The Dodgers were awfully close to being slain last year, and that was in part because
52:54 --> 52:55 [SPEAKER_00]: They had no bullpen in look.
52:55 --> 52:59 [SPEAKER_00]: They might have an awesome bullpen this year when Tanner Scott bounces back and when Diaz does too.
53:00 --> 53:07 [SPEAKER_00]: We're not going to blow these guys out, so in the absence of predicting, you know, having the opportunity to, you know, jump out to an early leading at their awesome starters.
53:07 --> 53:10 [SPEAKER_00]: The best answer to that question is to be able to win the game in the bridge innings.
53:10 --> 53:17 [SPEAKER_00]: That's how you win games in October is by being able to match up effectively in the sixth and seventh innings, in particular, really, and then coast.
53:17 --> 53:24 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the bearer's have the ability to do it, of course, but who knows how the world's going to look in six months and how the bearer's might match up.
53:24 --> 53:24 [SPEAKER_00]: I'll say this.
53:25 --> 53:28 [SPEAKER_00]: If that's a question that you're worried about, it means your season was awfully successful.
53:29 --> 53:30 [SPEAKER_01]: We're to grew with that.
53:31 --> 53:32 [SPEAKER_01]: This has been great.
53:32 --> 53:37 [SPEAKER_01]: We love having you on and we look forward to having you on potentially later on in the season and when we have some actual baseball to talk about.
53:37 --> 53:39 [SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for taking some time.
53:39 --> 53:39 [SPEAKER_02]: Later, boys.
53:42 --> 53:46 [SPEAKER_02]: I won't even sugarcoat it, Hembo is truly one of my favorite guests.
53:47 --> 53:52 [SPEAKER_02]: He is energetic, he's got stats, he's got knowledge, he's got opinions, he's awesome.
53:52 --> 53:59 [SPEAKER_02]: He's now a recurring guest, I'm thrilled that he is, and I can promise you it will not be the last time that he's on this podcast.
53:58 --> 54:01 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm guessing it won't be the last time this year, because we love talking with them.
54:02 --> 54:05 [SPEAKER_02]: So shout out as always to him, can't wait to do it again down the road.
54:06 --> 54:09 [SPEAKER_02]: With that, that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Lair podcast.
54:09 --> 54:10 [SPEAKER_02]: You guys know the drill.
54:10 --> 54:19 [SPEAKER_02]: If you want to listen to the full form podcast, you can do so wherever you get your audio pods, make sure you're downloading these episodes if you're listening, go rate and review five stars on Apple and Spotify.
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54:35 --> 54:37 [SPEAKER_02]: Go check out our merch, you guys.
54:37 --> 54:38 [SPEAKER_02]: Go get your merch ahead of the start of the year.
54:38 --> 54:40 [SPEAKER_02]: You can also check out our Patreon.
54:40 --> 54:41 [SPEAKER_02]: You can find all of our episodes.
54:41 --> 54:44 [SPEAKER_02]: That's all over at our website, MarineLayerPod.com.
54:44 --> 54:48 [SPEAKER_02]: And you can check us out across social media at MarineLayerPod.
54:48 --> 54:48 [SPEAKER_02]: That's TJ.
54:49 --> 54:49 [SPEAKER_02]: I'm Lyle.
54:49 --> 54:51 [SPEAKER_02]: As always, we thank you guys for tuning in.
54:51 --> 54:52 [SPEAKER_02]: We'll talk to you soon.