Episode 69: Should The Mariners Give Teoscar Hernandez The Qualifying Offer?

[00:00:00] Welcome to episode number 69 of the Marine Layer Podcast. Paul Seewald had some more to say this week about his departure from the Mariners. We'll discuss that. We'll discuss should the Mariners give Teoscar Hernandez the qualifying offer this offseason, and then a little bit of discussion about the World Series and what's happened in Texas and Phoenix so far during the fall classic.

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[00:01:12] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network recording here on Tuesday, October 31st. Happy Halloween, Lyle. We're recording during game four of the World Series. We'll discuss that at the latter half of this episode.

[00:01:30] But Rangers have already hit for the cycle in the second inning of today's game. And I got to say, not looking good. Not looking good for the pro Diamondbacks people, I would say. So it's about to be 3-1 Rangers. Should we say congrats, Rangers, right here, right now? See if we can reverse jinx it? Yeah, okay. Congratulations, Rangers. Your first World Series title. Let's go! Woo!

[00:01:57] Congratulations. Congratulations to all those in the Mariners fandom that will celebrate this title alongside the Rangers. What an achievement. What really, what a team, what a special group of players you guys put together. It's exciting. I can't wait for the parade.

[00:02:15] What do I say? There are certain people in the Mariners Twitterverse that I just will not name drop and will not give any attention to. But some of the people you're referencing, and I guess now I'm referencing, are popping champagne as the Rangers win the World Series.

[00:02:30] It will be an impressive feat for the Rangers. They will have, if they have won the World Series, if they will win the next two nights, next two nights, win tonight, and they win tomorrow night when this podcast comes out, they will be the first team to ever win every single road game they've played in in the playoffs. That's pretty bonkers. If we're going to shed some sarcasm and actually give some props, that would honestly be something else if they actually managed to pull that off.

[00:02:54] Regardless, the Rangers are doing pretty well right now. Diamondbacks, for some reason, decided a bullpen game was their best course of action here in game four. I don't know. I don't know if I quite agree. The Rangers don't seem too fooled by the mix of arms coming out of Arizona's bullpen. No, the Diamondbacks need starting pitching this winter. They've got a good first three with Gallon, Merrill Kelly, and now Brandon Fott, but they need some serious rotational depth come 2024.

[00:03:24] Well, let's pocket the rest of this discussion for later in the episode, but we will start off this show with some comments that were made this week regarding the Mariners. Larry Stone, friend of the pod, soon to retire. I think he's retiring, I think after the World Series, I think. I don't know exactly what date. I believe it's mid-November. I don't know the exact date either, but I think he's got a couple weeks left.

[00:03:49] Okay, but one of his final trips, he did make it down to Arizona to see a World Series game, and it wasn't just to go watch the baseball. It was to go work, and he was going to go talk to Paul Seawald, and he interviewed him for a column this week in the Seattle Times. You can go read it online. It is live. It is published. Paul had some interesting things to say. Paul, while we were on vacation, went on foul territory and had some things to say about his exit from the Mariners as well.

[00:04:17] It seemed, reading this article from Larry, that Paul didn't really want to talk about it too much, but there was a couple of word choices that he used that I thought were especially interesting. So his words were, when he talked to Larry about this article, he said, I had things to say before the season, and it turned out exactly how I thought it was going to go.

[00:04:43] Seawald also added that it was frustrating and that he said that Jerry and those guys have their work cut out for them to try and figure out how to make the Mariners better. But I think the headline that everybody's looking at is Paul Seawald saying, I had things to say before the season, and it went exactly how I thought it would go. So that says to us that he didn't love the idea of the only acquisitions being Colton Wong, AJ Pollock, Tommy Lastella. I'm sure he was happy with the Teo trade.

[00:05:12] But I think his sentiments were similar to the rest of the fan base. And it sounds like if the Mariners fandom was to sit in that locker room and talk to the team, there'd be a lot of people on the same wavelength right now, and Paul Seawald being one of them. And we're glad Paul goes on the record with this because once Paul says this, like Cal's the leader of the team, so he was definitely saying this too, right?

[00:05:39] Yeah, and that's one of the things that Paul Seawald said when he was on foul territory. He was asked about Cal Raleigh's comments at the end of the season, and he said, I totally understand where Cal was coming from. He thinks what he said was totally fair, totally reasonable. And we saw teammates of Cal's back him up when he said it, and now he's got former teammates doing it in Paul Seawald.

[00:06:01] So what this starts to say to me is there seems to be some disconnect between players and front office, which is not good because a couple years ago, it felt like once Jerry got the Kyle Seegers, the Kendall Graveman, players like that out of the building, it was his group, guys that saw his vision. And things would start to get cleaned up a little bit heading into 2022 and forward.

[00:06:23] Well, here we sit two seasons later, and his own group of guys is sitting here saying the same thing that the old group was saying, which is why are we not spending money? Why are we not adding in free agency? Why are we not doing everything we can to go win the World Series? I think the thing I was thinking about with Paul in regards to Cal was, yes, he agreed with his comments, but was Cal also saying things at the beginning of the season?

[00:06:45] How far did that seep? It was Paul's job as the leader of the team to go to management and go to Scott's service and eventually talk to Jerry DePoto, Justin Hollander, and voice some of his concerns about the roster. But there's no way he was the only person who's like, yep, I think I would be comfortable saying something about this to Jerry because I think this is important. And unfortunately, it turned out Paul was right.

[00:07:11] Now, Paul has turned the page now, and there's a couple other quotes in here when Larry tries to ask him about the team. I mean, this was right at the top of the article. I forget the question. Larry asked him, and he just goes, not my team. It's not my team. Some of those guys are my best friends. I'll see them next week when the season's over. But what happens in Seattle now is irrelevant to my career. So he's moved on. Paul has moved on.

[00:07:35] But I did think it was interesting he chose some of those words to use regarding what happened and didn't make quite the shockwaves, I think. And I think most of the shockwaves have already gotten out because of his appearance on foul territory. But not comforting to see because the more people I see talk about this and the more players I see come out and say things and put things on the record, I'm just trying to figure out how far has this seemed?

[00:08:03] How many players in that clubhouse that are currently in that clubhouse think this way? Like, the more that think that, the smaller your margins get. I mean, they are getting razor, razor thin. And as we've mentioned, it has a chance to derail everything. So to answer your question, it probably goes back as far as this past winter. I'm sure Cal Raleigh felt this way back in the winter. I'm sure he thought the Mariners didn't do enough.

[00:08:33] And from the guys that backed him up, JP, Logan Gilbert, Ty France, I'm sure others that didn't speak publicly about it, probably felt the same way in spring training, too. They're probably looking around and saying, that was a pretty loaded free agent class. We just came off a 90-win season and breaking a 21-year playoff drought. Why aren't we adding more? Why aren't we going for it more? Here's a question for you. Who on this team doesn't have an issue with how the Mariners are handling free agency and trades right now? I'm going to decline to comment on that.

[00:09:03] I mean, I don't know. I have to be honest. I don't know. It doesn't feel like it's a lot of guys. So the fringe roster guys, probably because they're the ones that would get replaced. And that's not a good sign. If you've got all of your core players, either internally or externally, feeling that type of way about the front office, not good. And that just doubles down on what we said and what we have been saying on previous shows.

[00:09:33] This is the most crucial offseason they've had maybe in our lifetime. Because if they do not make some waves this winter and they don't really get the roster better this winter, there's really going to be some problems. Yeah, internally and externally as well. All three levels that you could ask for.

[00:09:50] Because if you're Cal, Julio, JP, some of these core guys, Logan, George Kirby, and you're out there busting your tail all winter to try and work your ass off to get this team over the top to take them to the World Series. Look what JP did. Went to driveline last winter. He revamped his whole swing. He came back a totally different player offensively.

[00:10:11] If that happens again, and these guys are putting in that level of effort to do their part to get their team to the promised land, and the front office turns around and says, oh, I see players giving their max effort. Let us show you our max effort of adding Harrison Bader and a lateral trade. And that's our offseason. That is not going to sit well. No, no, it won't.

[00:10:32] And I will say for these comments for Paul, I'm glad he was in a good mood after returning home to Arizona after serving up that game-tying home run in game one to Corey Seager, which was a nuke. It really was. And Paul, it's not the Paul we're used to seeing, and he's been nails in these playoffs. So glad he was able to bounce back from that. People ever going to learn to stop giving Corey Seager first pitch cookies?

[00:10:59] This dude had a 1031 OPS against first pitches this year. On the first pitch, 1031 OPS. We can save some of this for later, but just since you brought up the home run he gave up, man, people do not. I will note that today in his home run in the game that is going on currently on Tuesday, he waited until the second pitch to hit his home run. So, you know, he's getting a little more patient. Well, good for Corey. Not that he needs it if he's just going to tee off on the first pitch all the time.

[00:11:29] But, hey, do what you got to do. I will say for Larry, though, he said he has a story coming out about Corbin Carroll, too, which is the other reason he went down there. It was to talk to Paul. It was to talk to Corbin Carroll, who's obviously Seattle royalty now. And I'll be interested to see that story when it comes out, too. So shout out to Larry. He got to see a World Series before he retires. Are they going to talk about the 2016 state title game?

[00:11:51] Well, they should if Corbin wants to talk about his adversity of having to overcome such a devastating loss to such a juggernaut of a ball club. Yeah. I think they should. I think that would be good to bring up. Before we get into our next topic, a quick word from our friends over at Pagotch's Pub 85. So Pagotch's Pub 85 in Kirkland. It's east of 405. Has some plenty of parking.

[00:12:18] And it's got awesome food, drinks, and a great area to go watch any of the games you might want to go watch. What just passed the other night? The sports equinox. Baseball, football, basketball, hockey. It's on all at the same time. They're all going on right now. So you want to go watch a bunch of games? Head over there and do it. But Pub 85, Pagotch's Pub 85. It's got 22 TVs in the place. It's got some awesome pizza. If you head over there, they've got a bunch of great food options. We certainly recommend you try the pizza. It's fantastic.

[00:12:48] And they've got a bunch of great drink options. If you're there during a weekday in the afternoon or early evening, they've got some good happy hour specials. So Monday through Friday, 2 to 6 p.m., their happy hour includes $3 domestic beers, $4 Manny's Blue Moons, $4 Mac and Jacks, $4 Wells, and $4 House Wines. All of that. Food, great drinks, great sports. All over at Pagotch's Pub 85 in Kirkland. Okay. Off-season topic.

[00:13:17] Haven't talked about it much since the year ended, although it's getting pretty relevant with the deadline for qualifying offers coming up in a few days now. Teoscar Hernandez. He either will or will not be given the qualifying offer by the Mariners. So we're going to sit here and dissect. Should they give it to him? And before we do, we should note in their end-of-season press conference, Jerry said the organization internally has already made the decision on what they will do with Teoscar and the qualifying offer. They just haven't made it public yet.

[00:13:46] So before we publicly know, we're going to sit here and talk about it. Should they offer it to him? I think they should offer it to him. What do you think? I'm kind of one foot in, one foot out. I wrote an article about this. It's over on JustBaseball.com if you want to check it out. But I think there's some pros and cons to both. You were more adamant, though, that when we talked about this pre-recording that they should do it.

[00:14:12] I think they should do it because, first of all, a one-year $20 million price tag, I think in the grand scheme of things, really isn't that much. The qualifying offer this year is $20.5 million. That is the high out of the now 11-year stretch of the qualifying offer. But, I mean, all it is is the mean of the top 125 paid players in baseball. That's all it is. So obviously it's going to rise every year as long as player contracts rise.

[00:14:40] The qualifying offer will raise as well. There's only 13 out of 124 players that have been offered the qualifying offer have accepted. 13 out of 124. That's a hair over 10%. I think about this as best case. Maybe not best case. But there's one case where you get Teoscar back at a one-year $20.5 million deal.

[00:15:07] And he gets essentially a prove-it deal at a higher average annual value than he would get on the open market. And he has a chance to reset his market for next offseason. And I think the other side of this is he rejects it. He goes back to the East Coast. He goes back and plays in the AL East. He gets his offensive numbers back up. And ballparks he likes hitting in better. And the Mariners get a draft pick out of it. And I think both of those are feasible.

[00:15:35] Because if he does accept it, Mariners have one proven outfield bat next year. That's Julio Rodriguez. That's it. That's the only one on the roster. So getting another proven bat back doesn't really seem like the end of the world, even if it's for the price tag of $20.5 million. And that still leaves the door open to go do other things. So before I get into any of my personal reasons, let me just ask you this. The Mariners almost traded Teo at the deadline.

[00:16:02] Does that feel like a team that is just itching to give him the qualifying offer for $20.5 million? But the qualifying offer, it doesn't even... You can hedge a qualifying offer on if the player... Banking that the player is going to reject. The Angels are going to offer Shohei Otani the qualifying offer this year. Is he going to take it? No. No, he's not taking it. I think that's a little different. Everybody knows not only is Shohei going to reject it, but he's going to go play somewhere else.

[00:16:31] Teoscar Hernandez is kind of on the line here in terms of would he accept it, would he not? Because I don't think he's getting more than $20.5 million AAV on the market. So if they offer that to him, he may think about wanting to take another prove-it deal and then hit the market again. I've come to the conclusion that I don't think Teoscar Hernandez wants to play next season in Seattle. If that is the case and the Mariners firmly believe that, I think it's a no-brainer you offer it to him.

[00:17:00] You know why? Here's this breakdown for the draft picks you get if the player you offer rejects the qualifying offer. So it's broken into three different categories. It's competitive balance tax teams. It's revenue-sharing recipients and then all other teams that don't qualify for either of those. Competitive balance tax payers are the teams that are over this competitive balance tax. The Padres, the Mets, etc.

[00:17:29] The Yankees, the Angels, those teams all qualify for that. The revenue-sharing recipients are the teams that receive more money from Major League Baseball than give to it in their revenue sharing. The third tier is all the other teams that do not qualify for that. They are under the luxury tax, but they are over the... They are not revenue-sharing teams. So the breakdown, by the way. You know where the Mariners land in that list?

[00:17:58] MLB.com put out a breakdown. It's like these are the preliminary classifications for each team that will determine the draft picks they receive, whether for a departing player or for a player they sign with a qualifying offer. These classifications will be qualified once the competitive balance tax payrolls are determined in early December. The Mariners land, laugh all you want, in the revenue-sharing recipients, which means they receive more money from the revenue-sharing pool of Major League Baseball than they give out.

[00:18:28] That's where they land. And so if Teoscar Hernandez goes out on the free agent market and signs a deal that is worth more than $50 million, the Mariners get a first-round pick at the end of the first round. That's what they get. They will get a first-round pick if he goes and signs a deal that's worth at least $50 million elsewhere. And I think if Teoscar Hernandez is going back to the AL East, I think somebody is going to give him a three-year deal that's worth more than $50 million.

[00:18:56] So Spotrak, by the way, thinks he is worth four years and $66.3 million. That right there is a first-round pick if somebody else gives him that. A first-round pick would be really, really valuable. And again, there are reasons to offer it to him, not just that you get the draft pick and potentially a first-round pick if he declines it, but we know his hard-hit profile was still really good. So in that regard, there's still a chance he has a bounce-back year, even if it's in Seattle next year, and he does take that qualifying offer.

[00:19:24] And he still hit 25 home runs. He could still up his war next year. He played a little bit better defense than he did in 2022. So it wasn't all negative with Teo. Here's my only question again. So we're kind of on two opposite sides of this. And this is not what I would do. I hope the Mariners spend all the money in the world this offseason. I hope there is no limit on that payroll budget. But we know realistically that's not true. So we talked about a little bit pre-recording,

[00:19:54] and we're going to bring it up here now. Now, if Teoscar were to take that qualifying offer, the Mariners are currently 16th in payroll. He takes that $20.5 million AAV qualifying offer. It goes to 13. 13's honestly a little higher than the Mariners have been in payroll across the league in a while. And they usually don't go all that much higher than that.

[00:20:17] I think we know John Stanton has very little interest in being a top 10 club in payroll in Major League Baseball. So if that's the case, here's why I'm a little on edge again. There's a part of me that feels like the Mariners get one move in free agency this winter. It's one. Whether that's Shohei, whether that's Blake Snell, whether that's somebody else. You get one move because if you get Blake Snell, for example,

[00:20:43] he will probably demand about $21 to $24 million AAV. So a little bit more than this QO for Teo. And if that's the case, that pushes him toward 12th or 13th in payroll. If that's not the case, then great. If it's not the case and they're willing to spend more money, then great. But if it is the case, then it feels like Teo taking the qualifying offer could put a wrench in some of their plans to spend in free agency. Because again, in my head, it feels like they're getting one move in free agency.

[00:21:12] I think Teoscar Hernandez would have a market because there's been some less proven hitters over the years that have gotten multi-year deals. I mean, Kyle Schwarber got what? He got a four-year deal. Didn't he with the Phillies? Yeah. And if you were to take Teoscar last year and Kyle Schwarber and put him out on the open market each, who's got a better market? That's a good question.

[00:21:35] It is probably Teo because his track record from 2020 to 2022 was as good as almost anybody's in baseball, especially amongst the power hitters. He plays more defense than Schwarber. Well, he runs a little bit better than Schwarber. Maybe not that much better. He still gets thrown out on the bases a lot, Teo, but better than Kyle Schwarber. So that's a fair point. Maybe somebody would give Teo a four-year deal. You know, you keep talking about AL East teams. The team I outlined is a pretty good fit in my article that I wrote. I feel like the Reds are a team that could really use them.

[00:22:05] They're right on the brink now. They need bats. Very hitter-friendly park. He had Stuart Fairchild playing nearly 100 games for the Reds last year. A lot of that being in the outfield, meaning there is room for Teoscar Hernandez there. That could be another spot that he would land. And maybe the Reds would be a team to give him a four-year, $62 million deal or something like that. The Mariners could also very well know by now they could have talked to Teoscar's agent and realized that he does not want to re-sign with them. That's entirely a realistic possibility.

[00:22:35] So if that's the case, this isn't even a hesitation, right? It's not. You offer it to him if that's the case. Because even if that number is $20.5 million, Teoscar Hernandez knows that if he wants to set him up for better perception for the rest of his career, he's going to play baseball somewhere else. He's not playing it in Seattle. We've all seen those home-road splits. And Teoscar made sure that people saw those home-road splits when he liked a tweet about it.

[00:23:02] So that's always an option here. I think there's another angle to this, too, where if the Mariners, say, go after Blake Snell in free agency, the Padres have two options for a qualifying offer. They can offer a qualifying offer to Josh Hader, or they can offer a qualifying offer to Blake Snell. Blake Snell has a qualifying offer attached to him. The draft pick washes out, and you don't lose anything by signing him by offering Teoscar Hernandez one as well.

[00:23:32] And that's a good point. It feels like they will offer it to Snell over Hader. It's just starter versus reliever value-wise. It feels like you'd offer it to the starter. So that is a good point. And to your previous point about if they already know that Teoscar is going to test the free agent market, then yes, you absolutely offer it to him. You absolutely give him the qualifying offer and let him decline it. Because he knows by this point what the qualifying offer is. He knows if he takes it, he'd get $20.5 million if the Mariners have offered it.

[00:23:59] So I'm sure him and his agent have well thought it out and well made their decision on what they'd want to do. And we don't know yet. Again, it's not public yet. But from the information we currently have, that it just feels to me he would be a player that might consider it. If I had to go one way or another, I'd guess no.

[00:24:20] Again, I just don't love the idea of if you all of a sudden have to pay him $20 million and then all of a sudden it probably feels like you're cutting into John Stanton's precious little payroll budget and maybe foil some plans for signing other guys. But you're right. If you think he's going to decline it, give it to him. You know, the Mariners have only offered the qualifying offer twice ever. It's been around 11 years, but it's only been twice in 11 years.

[00:24:44] Once was Hasashi Wakuma and the other time was Kendris Morales when he left after 2013. That's it. Yeah. And after 2013, it was probably about fair value. It wasn't $20.5 million back then. I think it was closer to like $12 million. I think it was like $13-ish back then. $13 or $14. I was going to say $12. So, yeah, that sounds about right. And that would be a little different. If it was still at a $13 million AAV, the QO, I would say, yeah, I'd give it to Teo, no doubt.

[00:25:14] I guess my hesitation here is just $20 is a lot. A 1.8 F war from last year does not equal $20.5 million of value. That would equal about $15, not $20.5. And we know he had his issues here. Walk rate was down. Strikeout rate was up. He's a fine defender. He's not a great defender. He's not a great base runner. So, like, I'm actually not opposed to the idea of if he hits the free agent market and then if the price is right, you could bring him back on a more team-friendly deal.

[00:25:42] If he was to take some three-year deal here for $42-ish million, similar to the deal Mitch got with the Giants, I'd be more open to that. But the $20.5 million AAV, I just kind of squirm in my seat a little bit. I just don't love it. But you're okay with multiple years for him over just one. If it's for a little bit less money and some of the markets played out.

[00:26:05] Well, again, so if they were to bring Teoscar back, I think it's with the idea that they probably haven't done a lot in free agency before that, which would not be good. But if, for example, it gets to be the new year, Shohei signs with another team, they don't get Blake Snell, they don't get any of those starting pitchers, they don't sign Cody Bellinger, any of those guys. Because even though I'm a little hesitant about Cody, but that's a topic for another day. In that scenario, I think offering Teoscar a deal like that would be okay.

[00:26:32] And if his market is not what he wants it to be, maybe he considers coming back to Seattle on a deal like that. But yes, I would rather give him a deal like that than $20.5 million for the QO. I think it's worth the risk. I do. Look, if he declines it again, I'm all for it, because that means you get the draft pick. So if he declines it, I'm all for it.

[00:26:56] My only holdup here, the only reason I'm hung up on this, is in my mind, I feel like he is a player that is right on the brink of either considering to take it, because that is a very high average annual value for one year, or see if he wants to test the market. He probably tests the market, but I think there is a chance he would consider that QO. I don't know if he wants to kill his value for another year hitting at T-Mobile Park, though. Yeah, he may want to just cash out now.

[00:27:25] The other side of this is obviously, if he takes the QO and says, okay, give me one more prove-it year in Seattle, and he has an even worse year, then teams are really going to be out on him. If he gets out now and gets his money now over an elongated period of time, that's just maybe what he prefers, especially if he goes somewhere like Cincinnati or the AL East.

[00:27:45] I'm going to conclude this with chuckling that still just realizing that the Mariners are actually in the revenue-sharing recipients classification of this. I just don't believe that. I really have a hard time believing that the halfback grill and root sports can't combine to out-revenue the Marlins or the Orioles or the Rays or any of these other teams in here. I mean, one team just clearly stands out from the back.

[00:28:15] I'm going to be quite honest. And the fact that I'm looking at the all-other-clubs classification here, and two that stand out are the Nationals and the White Sox that are not revenue-sharing recipients. You're leaving out that the Mariners get a bunch of money from root for Trailblazers games, for Kraken games. Their attendance was an all-time high. Spend money, people! I like, again, we're not like— Well, the attendance, the box office they have to share.

[00:28:42] Okay, well, fair, but they still got a bunch of money from it. Right, but they have to—that money is all pooled and redistributed. Oh, okay, yeah, yeah, yeah, fair. But especially the TV deal stuff with— The root money they do not have to share. No, that's ridiculous. The halfback money they do not have to share. They make a ridiculous amount of money off some of their products. We're not the crazy payroll Twitter people. Really, we're not.

[00:29:04] But that doesn't mean we're not sitting here to say, spend money this winter because this offseason is crucial and something has to be done. Like, this team needs major, major improvements on the offensive side of the ball, and you have the money to do it. Yeah, that graphic did give me a laugh when I saw it yesterday. Well, we'll see what the official classification is, and we'll know a little bit more, I would say, after the qualifying offer.

[00:29:31] That will—the draft pick they end up getting awarded, if Teo declines it and he signs somewhere else, we will know for sure which category they fall into. And we should note, in case people are not aware, that the deadline to offer the player the qualifying offer is five days after the World Series. So at some point here in the next week or two, even a little less than two weeks, we should know. And we'll have concrete information on what's going to happen with Teo moving forward.

[00:30:00] So whenever the World Series ends, the Mariners will have five days, and we'll see if they offer it to him or not. Is there a deadline for them accepting it or not? Yeah, there is. I'm blanking right now on what that date is. It's only a couple days after they're offered that QO that they have to accept. I want to say it's like 48 to 72 hours. It's not a lot of time that they get to sit and stir on it. Yeah, that makes sense. That makes sense.

[00:30:25] Okay, before we get to our final segment of this show, a word from BetterHelp. Is something interfering with your happiness or preventing you from achieving your goals? Regardless, if you have a clinical mental health issue like depression or anxiety, or you're just a human who lives in this world who's going through a hard time, therapy can give you the tools to approach your life in a very different way. And that's why I'm excited to tell you about today's sponsor, BetterHelp. BetterHelp's mission is to make therapy more affordable and more accessible.

[00:30:53] And this is an important mission because finding a therapist can be really hard, especially when you're limited to options in your area. BetterHelp is a platform that makes finding a therapist easier because it's online, it's remote. And by filling out a few questions, BetterHelp can match you with a professional therapist in as little as a few days. It's easy to sign up and get matched with a therapist. There's a link in our description. It's betterhelp.com slash marine layer pod. That's betterhelp.com slash marine layer pod.

[00:31:22] Clicking that link helps support this podcast, but also gets you 10% off your first month of BetterHelp so you can connect with a therapist and see if it helps you. So if you're struggling, consider online therapy with BetterHelp. Click the link in the description or visit betterhelp.com slash marine layer pod. Final segment here. World Series going on as we speak. I believe this game is over. I'm getting past the notifications on my computer.

[00:31:48] My phone is about five feet that way, but game over. Rangers up 3-1. Well, considering it is 10-0 in the fourth inning, it's over. Yeah, it is over. So what were the final totals of that inning? Which one? They scored a bunch of runs in multiple innings. They had five in the second, five in the third. It's now the top of the fourth inning. Here is where we're recording.

[00:32:13] So the Diamondbacks had a mediocre bullpen throughout the season and in a must-win game at home, decided to do a bullpen game. They're out of starters, so I guess. But I hate bullpen games in the regular season. You hate bullpen games in the regular season. And here they are in the World Series with a bullpen game against a very elite offense. And it is going exactly how we thought. It's just who are they going to throw instead?

[00:32:45] You. Great. How much am I getting paid to go out there and give up 10 runs in three innings? Well, $50,000? $10,000. I think you'd take $10,000. I might have to bargain a little bit. It's like it's a nice start, but I'm going to get humiliated on national TV. There's going to be a bunch of eyeballs on me. It's one of the biggest games of the year. I feel like I should be getting a nice little salary bump for that. I feel like players are getting a salary bump for being in the World Series.

[00:33:16] Can we talk six figures or am I overshooting my sales pitch here? So who's paying you? Oh, no. The Diamondbacks would be paying you. Yeah. I don't know, dog. I don't think they have the budget for that. They don't spend a lot of money. No, they don't. I think they'd offer you $500. I'll have to get back to them. Yeah. Yeah. This team needs starting pitching in 2024. I don't think they can go into next season without it.

[00:33:45] I think they need at least one proven starter, if not two. And one way or another, they need to add at least two starting pitchers, especially on a market where there's so much rotational help out there. They have to go do it this winter because look what's holding them up right now. I mean, Zach Gallin's had his issues in the World Series and in the postseason, but that just happens. Sometimes starters just struggle in the postseason. Kershaw has done it nearly his whole career. But obviously, Gallin, who is a Cy Young contender, is going to open next year as the opening

[00:34:15] day starter. You have Merrill Kelly behind him, who was great this year. Brandon Fott looks like he is all but ready to take the next step as a true big league starter after what he's done this postseason. But you can't just fall off a cliff after that. You can't just have your four and five spots be gaping black holes where you're going to bullpen games in the World Series. Yeah, they've got to add starting pitching. So what a World Series it's been for Corey Seager. I mean, homers again today. So these tweets were before he homered today.

[00:34:42] So he now has six home runs in his first 17 World Series games. The record for most home runs. This is over their first 16 career World Series games all time. Goose Gonsolin is one. These are a bunch of really old guys. Goose Gonsolin, Al Simmons, Lou Gehrig, Charlie Walker, Duke Snyder, Mickey Mantle, and then Corey Seager. That's a pretty impressive list. And then you'll be happy to hear this.

[00:35:09] He is breaking Derek Jeter and Carlos Correa's record for most home runs in a World Series. Yay? Can we talk about how on the postgame show the other night that Derek Jeter was sitting on the postgame desk and talking about how just intrigued and enamored he was by Corey Seager's defense, talking about, man, the way he goes to his right to make plays. It's just unbelievable.

[00:35:36] It's like, yeah, maybe he can give you a tip or two, Derek. Yeah, maybe he could. Maybe he could. He's a pretty good player, Corey Seager. That contract's looking like it's going to be a bargain, especially if his bat drags them to a World Series. I would say another surprising thing for the Rangers, like it kind of ties into today because they kind of, the Rangers kind of had a bullpen day today. They had Andrew Heaney start today.

[00:36:03] When Heaney started in the ALCS, he went two-thirds of an inning. He didn't go very far in that start in the ALCS. And they're starting him again today, but they're doing a bit better today. And the bullpen overall in the World Series has actually been pretty good. So the only runs the bullpen's really given up, Martin Perez got shelled at the end of game two, but that game was really already over and the Diamondbacks won by a bunch. But outside of that, they allowed one earned run and six bullpen innings in game three,

[00:36:32] and then no earned runs in six and a third innings of bullpen pitching in game one. I think that might be the biggest reason why the Rangers are about to go up 3-1 right now. I'm really shocked that their bullpen has not seriously cost them in this postseason. Again, it cost them game five of the ALCS, but they came back and won that series. And other than that, it really hasn't been an issue. It seemed like it was going to be an issue with Aroldis Chapman in game three, but he got out of it. So that is a big difference.

[00:37:01] Everybody talks about the Rangers bullpen this, the Rangers bullpen that, entering October, and it really hasn't been that pressing an issue for them. It's bailed out two very meh starts from Evaldi and Montgomery. I think when we previewed the World Series, I said, okay, well, they have the two hottest pitchers going into the series in terms of how well they've pitched in these playoffs. And the first turn through the rotation in the World Series, they were both, they both didn't go out there and win the game for the Rangers.

[00:37:30] That's, that's for absolute certain, but it hasn't really mattered. Now their offense is going to bring them to a 3-1 lead here tonight. Here we are jinxing them. You're going to listen to this podcast on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks are going to come back and win 12 to 10, scoring 12 runs against the Rangers bullpen. And everything we will have said here is, is incorrect. So congratulations Rangers that we're about to do this to you. But I would say everything that is needed to go right for, for Texas in terms of their

[00:37:59] weaknesses has so far, and they haven't even, they like their strength on offense they've needed and it's done quite well. But the other strengths, the auxiliary strengths of this team haven't really been needed. Is there any chance these injuries to Adolis Garcia and Max Scherzer could hurt him in the final couple of games of the World Series? So we're assuming they're about to be up 3-1 because it's, it's 10-0 here in this game in the fourth inning. So assuming when this podcast comes out, they're up 3-1, is there any chance that those injuries

[00:38:27] comes back to bite them moving forward? Because both those guys have been taken off the post-season roster. They are probably done for the series. And those are two pretty key guys, especially Adolis, who's been the hottest guy on the planet these days. I don't know if Adolis is what hurt as much. He's had an awesome post-season, but that lineup is so deep. It is, it is so deep full of bats. And we've seen here today, first game without Adolis, 10 runs and four innings, no problem.

[00:38:53] And they have to have essentially now one elite offensive performance in the final three games of this series to, in the final potential three games of this series to, to, to win it. That's all, that's all they would need. Scherzer, only if they get to game seven, because right now game seven would shape up to be, uh, Brandon Fott. Yeah. It would probably be John Gray and plus bullpen against Brandon Fott right now. Like that, I think that's what it would be.

[00:39:22] And, and John Gray was fine out of the bullpen yesterday for, uh, for Bruce Bochy and the Rangers. But, uh, like I think game seven would really be the only spot. If your bullpen has been taxed in games five and six, the Diamondbacks come roaring back. Then you might have an issue there, but Max Scherzer hasn't been great down the stretch. He hasn't been great this season. He's looking at his, his age and his body is reacting appropriately to getting old and pitching a lot is it's failing him and failed him in, in the biggest moment yesterday.

[00:39:54] So maybe it doesn't impact him at all, especially if they just, like you said, either have one more big offensive night or honestly, if native Aldi or Jordan Montgomery spins one more good start, cause they could win a game three, nothing here at some point, or three to one, they get one more good pitching outing. It may not even have to be on the offense. And then they didn't end up needing either of those guys, the rest of the series. So maybe it doesn't affect them, but we've seen crazy things happen in the world series. We've seen the Diamondbacks beat all odds, a lot of different times as post season.

[00:40:23] So does it look like they're down and out for sure? I wouldn't totally put it against them to come back. And if they do, maybe we're having a different conversation that, Oh man, imagine if they still had a Dolis and Max Scherzer. Let's make the Texas Rangers, the poster boys of the three, one blown lead. Oh, that would be amazing. No more golden state warriors. Oh, we would have such a field day if the Diamondbacks came back from three, one to win the world series. Yeah.

[00:40:48] And if, if they do that, like there are things that would like the things that we questioned about the Rangers would probably be the reason for it. It'd be a, a bad bullpen at the back end. It would be a, an aging and thin rotation, which they've now, they burned through most of it. It's most of it's injured. Most of it is either like injured pitching or in the bullpen right now. Luckily again, two out of these last three games, they will get a Montgomery start and they will get an Evaldi start. The Rangers are probably banking.

[00:41:18] One of those two guys are going to go out there and have a really good start to finish this thing off and win their first world series ever. And then the Mariners, the list of teams that have not won a world series gets smaller and smaller and smaller until there's one standing. I'm going to quiz you here right off the rip. There's currently six teams that have never won the world series. If the Rangers do win, can you name the five? Padres. Rockies. Yeah. Brewers. Yeah. Mariners. Yeah.

[00:41:48] And there's one more. Oh, one more. That has not. You need a hint. Oh, no. Tame Bay race. Yeah, you got it. Yeah. So those are the five. Now, here's the follow up question. Do all five of those teams win a world series before the Mariners get to one? Sorry, sorry, sorry. All four of those teams win a world series before the Mariners get to one because there would be five remaining if the Rangers win the world series.

[00:42:17] Before the Mariners get to one? Yes. I hope not. Yeah, that would mean the Rockies have won the world series before they get there. If that's the case, I'm probably not a baseball fan by then. If the Rockies enter a world where they win a world series and get better than the Mariners here in the next couple of years. Oh, this podcast is going to be fuming with takes because that feels like the last team to me at this point that's winning a world series.

[00:42:46] Like the Rays, yes, they don't spend a lot of money. The Padres are probably going to shed some payroll, but like those are two teams that feel like they shouldn't be that far away from winning one. But yeah, I mean, and then the Brewers, I don't know, because they're one of those. They feel like the Guardians in a lot of ways where they are in it every year, but they never quite have the roster that strikes fear into anybody's eyes because they just don't have the budget for it or their owner doesn't fork up the money for it.

[00:43:12] But the Rockies just feel like the last team that are going to be crossed off that list. And if they were to pass up the Mariners, man, that would that'd be tough. Those two franchises have the same amount of World Series wins. The Rockies have just appeared in four more World Series games than the Mariners. Wow, man, what a discussion that would be. I mean, this I mean, I hope this podcast is still going by the time the Rockies eventually win a World Series.

[00:43:39] If you're going to ask me when the Rockies are winning a World Series, it's probably the same answer as if you're asking me when the Mariners are winning the World Series, in which case I'm just going to shrug my shoulders and say, I have no clue. Oh, well, maybe by then. I don't know. Maybe I was going to I was going to say maybe they'll somehow skew the air density or something, but that's not possible. I was trying to think of some joke off the just right off the cuff there, but to actually get some starting pitchers in there.

[00:44:09] But that's the problem with the Rockies is nobody's ever going to want to pitch there. So they're going to have to have a Rangers type of offense and just survive off their rotation if they're ever going to win a World Series. So why don't the Rockies and the Mariners combine forces and they somehow mesh these two parks together because no hitters want to come to Seattle. No pitchers want to go to Colorado. Why don't we? How about a merger? It's like that Dwight and Jim meme from The Office where they say, do you want to form an alliance? That'd be great.

[00:44:39] That'll be fun. I think we take the best of both worlds and shit, I think we're winning a World Series next year. Sure. Ballpark wise. Sure. I mean, do the Rockies really have much on their roster? The Mariners would want at this point. I don't know about how much combining the two clubs helps the Mariners. Maybe you try to save Chris Bryant. But I was going to say we did want Chris Bryant. That's for sure. Yeah. And so like, and again, this is the thing about the Rangers, right? They did it the right way.

[00:45:08] And they were very lucky to have their two big free agent signings just totally work out like the best of any other two free agents in the last couple of classes. But there's a lot of ways the Mariners also could have spent money and it would have blown up in their faces. I wanted Chris Bryant as bad as anybody before 2022. If they had signed him, I don't think we'd be happy campers right now because he is totally falling off the face of the earth. Well, it is his fault. He decided on the Rockies.

[00:45:33] So maybe not, maybe not the best place to tap off your career in a, in a, in a hall of fame fashion. Probably not. And, and I don't think there's any way he's going to be in the hall of fame at this point. It looked like maybe after his first couple of seasons, he could have been. Trajecting that way. I don't, I don't think anymore, but yeah, not a lot on that Rockies on that Rockies team that would have helped the Mariners. I will say to the Rangers credit though, that they try, right.

[00:46:02] And, and, and that's what people have been asking the Mariners to do forever is just try because there are the things the Rangers have done that have not worked out that Jacob to Grom contract looks like a disaster all of a sudden, because I think there was high risk when they signed them because there was already a lot of injury there. And then he didn't pitch a lot. They paid him a ton of money and he got Tommy John surgery, but they've had a lot of moves that have worked out. So some didn't work. Some did. And, and it's paying off for him right now.

[00:46:30] And it's a, like a lot of organizations. If you, Jerry swings a lot of trades, you saw that graphic on Twitter today, didn't you? Of, of the bar graph of, I think net war and trade since I think it was 2012. Mariners are pretty far down that list, by the way, of, of net returns on trades. I don't have it pulled up, but it was a, if you trade a bunch of things, I mean, just ask AJ Perler, how those trades worked out for you, AJ? No, they've been great. What do you mean? Yeah, exactly.

[00:46:59] So you can, you can spend a bunch of trades as well, but if you're not good at it, it bites you just the same as locking in monster contracts for decades and decades, because instead of being burdened down with payroll, well, you trade away all of your youth and all your foundation of your organization. And then, you know, instead of being a, having to fork over money, you just have a barren roster full of nothing. And I think the photo has been much better with trades than AJ Perler has.

[00:47:27] I did see the graphic today and that's why I was kind of shocked. They were so far down on the list because I feel like there's a lot of trades they've made that have worked out. Some of them haven't just like how some free agent signings work and some don't, but yeah. I mean, maybe they've made so many trades that the accumulated war of everybody they've sent away is more than the guys, the Mariners have gotten in return. But I don't know, like there's a lot of trades that Poto has made over the years that I think people are really happy with.

[00:47:55] So that's why I was shocked to see him so far down the list, but maybe it's the quantity part of that. Final note for me today. I did just love that Kyle Seeger has now appeared in more World Series games supporting his brother than he has Mariners games back at T-Mobile Park in the last two seasons. That was incredible that some fan found him and the picture gets out on Twitter and he's just, you can't be shocked. He's at the game, right? Like his brother's in the World Series. Like, like, of course, like, of course he's there to support him.

[00:48:24] But yeah, that would have been really fun if, if like you said, he had the half Corey Seeger jersey and half Paul Seewald jersey. Except the Paul Seewald jersey was a Diamondbacks one and not a Mariners one. Oh, of course. Of course it would have been a Diamondbacks one. But I'm just saying Kyle has not taken the trip back up to the Pacific Northwest since he retired. That I know of and that the public is aware of. I mean, are you, are you shocked?

[00:48:49] No, but I'm merely pointing something out that he has now gone to more World Series games than the team that will induct him into their Hall of Fame in the last two seasons. How long do we think that's going to take not just to happen in terms of Kyle getting into the Mariners Hall of Fame, but for him, but for him to even come back to T-Mobile Park for a few games at some point, because for Felix, he was done in 2019. It felt like there was a little bit of a strained relationship there.

[00:49:18] And now it's clearly been mended because he threw out the first pitch at the playoff game in 2022. They had the whole Felix weekend in 2023. So it took, if we're going to throw COVID out the window because it was such a weird year. Plus Felix was still trying to play that year. Remember he signed with the Braves. Um, and at one point he was with the Orioles, but I guess we'll call it like two years. It's been about two years for Kyle, but man, it feels like that relationship. The Seager one might take a little longer than the Felix one. I think you know the answer to this.

[00:49:47] Is it when Jerry DePoto is no longer with the organization? Bingo. Even if it's like 2026, the Mariners have had all this success. Jerry's still there. You think just no shot, no shot. Again, we're talking about a team that has been in heavy playoff contention that has had multiple ceremonies and multiple opportunities for Kyle Seager to come back and support his former teammates.

[00:50:15] And he has appeared zero times. How easy would it have been for Kyle to come back for the playoff game last year? Oh, I'm sure. Extremely easy. I'm sure as many things as John Stanton won't pay for, he probably would have paid for it for Kyle. Yeah. And yet, where is Kyle Seager? Not there. It was interesting that for Felix's induction ceremony that they had all those players send in videos, pay their tribute. You know, Beltre had the video and then they surprised Felix with Beltre being there in

[00:50:44] person, which was super cool, by the way. And it was all these guys Felix played with forever. Felix and Kyle Seager were teammates a long time. And you know those two were friends. Those two were teammates as long as just about anybody Felix was teammates with. And Kyle Seager was not in that video montage. I was at those games and I definitely noticed. I never found out if there was, you know, serious reasoning behind it. But but clearly either the Mariners did not ask Kyle Seager or Kyle Seager said no.

[00:51:12] So, yeah.

[00:51:43] It's just odd, man. It's the funniest thing in the world. Wasn't it hilarious when this Leonard Williams trade happened on Monday, which by the way, in terms of the gridiron here for a second, shout out to you, John Schneider and the Seahawks. What a move you made. Talk about trying. Talk about trying. So you're getting right to my point here is I just love that Mariners Twitter is in this place where a different team of a different sport makes a trade.

[00:52:09] And Mariners Twitter just fires up the grills being like, fuck this organization. It's like across the street that actually tries and makes moves. I think it's the funniest thing. There's like absolutely no correlation. Again, it's a whole different sport. And you just see all these people on Twitter that are just up in arms and tweeting up a storm. I think it's I was having a good laugh on Monday when that happened. Yeah, totally unintentional. But still, they it finds a way every morning. It's like, oh, did Jerry do something today?

[00:52:39] Oh, no, no. Actually, no. The Seahawks made a trade and Jerry, 54 percent is still floated out there. You know, that when, for example, we talked about Lourdes Gurriel on our last show, you know, that when he either resigns in Arizona or goes somewhere else and hype. I'm just throwing out a hypothetical here that he's one of the first moves of the offseason that when he signed somewhere else, it's going to be the same thing. We wake up. It's like, oh, did Jerry say something today? Did he have another media session? It's like, no, Lourdes Gurriel just signed with another team. And that was the first move of the winter.

[00:53:09] And people are like, I can't believe the Mariners aren't doing anything. They never do anything. Mariners Twitter is quite the place, I will say. But my favorite quote from the week is it's clear John Schneider wants to win more than 54 percent of his games. Well, his all time winning percentage, I think, would suggest that or at least his winning percentage over the last decade in Seattle. That's for sure.

[00:53:33] I guess in conclusion, my little conclusion on the Kyle Seeger thing is, I mean, good for him that he was there in Arizona supporting Corey. But to wrap up this conversation again, the fact a couple of months ago he couldn't even send a 20 second video into the team saying congratulations, Felix. I think that says all all that needs to be said. So maybe one day. One day, Kyle. All right. I think that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast. You guys know the drill.

[00:54:01] If you want to listen to the full form podcast, you can do so on Apple, Spotify, Google and Amazon. If you do that, make sure to follow us, download our episodes, leave us a five star review. The reviews, the downloads, they really do help us out. So if you take the few extra seconds to do those two things, it serves as a huge benefit to us. So thanks in advance for doing that. Go watch us on YouTube where we've got the full video side of the podcast. Go like, comment, subscribe. Turn the notification bells on on YouTube and then follow us on social media.

[00:54:30] Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Pod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.