Episode 78: Mocking Trades With The Tampa Bay Rays

[00:00:00] Welcome to Episode number 78 of the Marine Layer Podcast. We'll preview a couple of mock trades with the Tampa Bay Rays, we'll take a look around baseball with our MLB wrap round and of course close out the show with Speak Your Mind.

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[00:00:58] great drinks and watch all the sports you can watch. Before we start the show, your reminder to go download our episodes, follow us and leave us a five star review wherever you get your audio side of the podcast.

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[00:01:20] the podcast over there and follow us on social media on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube shorts at Marine Layer Pod. Let's get it rolling. Episode of the Marine Layer Podcast part of the Just Baseball Podcast Network recording

[00:01:46] here Thursday night November 30th after the Seahawks lost to the Dallas Cowboys. You can see Lyle I'm wearing my throwback Seahawks cap from our friends over at Simply Seattle. I'll talk to them a little bit more later on in this episode and the Seahawks of course losing tonight.

[00:02:03] So I thought the only proper way, the only thing that would make this night worse is if while we're recording this podcast, Shohei Otani ends up being a Texas Ranger. Do you think that'll happen? Knowing our luck maybe. I hope not.

[00:02:19] I was going to say I would hope it's not going to happen at nine or 10 o'clock at night which would be past midnight here on the East Coast. But you never know.

[00:02:28] I was getting ready to go to bed here on Wednesday night and Jeff Passon still up in the We Hours tweeting about Nick Martinez signing with the Reds. So I guess Shohei could sign at any hour if you call him a night owl, if he considers

[00:02:40] himself a night owl. So knowing our luck, I'm going to say yes. If I'm going to use my actual thinking brain, I'll say no. Well, that would be good. I think that would make the city of Seattle and the state of Washington a little calmer.

[00:02:55] I will say though, by the time we record our Friday episode of next week, will he have signed because by then the winter meetings are over. It does feel like time's ticking here and I am starting to get ready to try to mentally

[00:03:10] prepare myself because I feel like we're reaching the finish line here. Didn't we set the timer of winter meetings? It was like from the end of the sea. He's going to sign before winter meetings. I thought we thought it. Right? We might have predicted that. Yeah.

[00:03:22] So we talked about that a long time ago when we had our friend Jason Churchill on. He was saying all the way back in April, he thought Shohei might sign before the winter meetings, but it sounds like from what we hear it's supposed to happen at the

[00:03:36] winter meetings. Now who he's going to sign with? Nobody knows. We may get to that topic later, but it sounds like he will sign at some point while the winter meetings are going on. Will that happen? We'll find out.

[00:03:47] Do you have steps to mentally prepare yourself for this while? What's the checklist you're going through? I've just tried not to think about it because when I waste my time, or I don't want to say waste because what have I done for the last like three, four years?

[00:04:00] Just start hoping and hoping the fact that when Shohei becomes a free agent, oh, he'll consider Seattle this time that the organization has built themselves up enough to the point where he'd actually want to play here.

[00:04:10] So when I do those things, all it does is send me spiraling. So I've been trying not to think about it, but now over the last day or two because I know we're reaching the finish line. Yeah, it's creeping into my head a lot more.

[00:04:21] I don't think I am going to have any way to mentally prepare for it because I think when the bomb happens, whether it's for the Mariners or not, I think if it's the latter, I'm going to be pissed off either way.

[00:04:33] So I'm just knowing at some point the next week, I may test my vocal cords a little bit if he signs somewhere else and just let it all out. What are you going to do? I think I'm just going to bury myself in work.

[00:04:44] Usually that's the best way to not think about things and not worry about other things. So you know what? Maybe hopefully he signs like during Oregon State's bowl game. So I literally, when he signs with the Dodgers, I'm just going to be so busy

[00:04:58] that I don't have time to think about it until I maybe get, I don't know, eight hours to decompress after he's signed and realize the sad reality that the Mariners are again a second rate franchise in his eyes and are not

[00:05:13] worthy of his services, which will hit the heart of many here in the Pacific Northwest. Wouldn't Oregon's bowl game be around Christmas time? That's a long time before he'd sign. It's not a guarantee he signs during winter meetings, so he could still be discussing things. You never know.

[00:05:31] Yeah. Yeah, it's true. Maybe it takes him longer. I mean, I wouldn't enjoy it if it took much longer because even though I'm trying to mentally prepare being like God, I'm going to be so miserable if he signed somewhere else or what? Okay.

[00:05:43] I say I'm going to be so miserable. Obviously we're trying to mentally prepare ourselves that he will sign somewhere else, but that doesn't change the fact that if he signs somewhere else, I won't be happy about it.

[00:05:52] So yeah, I'm sure whenever the bomb drops, if it's not the Mariners, I'll be unhappy, but I do hope at the same time it's sooner rather than later because what I want to see the rest of the market start to get

[00:06:02] going and two, I just want to know already. Like I hate sitting in the stage of the of the unknown. As long as he doesn't sign during this podcast and doesn't sign with the Texas Rangers, I think the city of Seattle will be a little more at peace.

[00:06:15] I think so. I think he'd manage it. What? I'm going to spoil something here for some for some fans and listeners. If he signs with the Cubs, I'm coming back on this podcast ready

[00:06:27] to unleash a just, just a rant and a half if he signs with the Cubs. And why? Well, you'll have to wait and find out for if he signs there. If he signs with the Dodgers, I'm going to shrug and say, well, we knew that was coming.

[00:06:40] If he signs with the Cubs, oh, I'm going to have some thoughts. That's your key to tune back into the Marine Layer podcast. Don't miss it. Here's something I can entice you with though, Lyle, while we lower expectations below Shohei Otani.

[00:06:54] There might be some Tampa Bay rays available and a couple of different options and ideas that have been floated out on the interwebs this week. But one by Jeff Passon, another one by I forget the dude's name. But essentially the entire Tampa Bay's roster is available.

[00:07:12] But these two specific names we think link to the Mariners closer than others. And no, this does not include Yanni Diaz. We already talked about Yanni Diaz. If you want to hear us talk about Yanni Diaz, go find our episode where we actually talk about Yanni Diaz.

[00:07:25] This does not have to do with Yanni Diaz. This has to do with Lyle up first, Esauq Parades. What do you think of that? Entering his age 25 season. So he played last year at 24, he's a Super 2. He's going to have four years of arbitration and he's a utility

[00:07:45] infielder will most likely play third though if he was going to be on the Mariners. What do you think? I'm intrigued. It is not quite Yanni Diaz but you know what? It's not as far off as people think.

[00:07:56] If you just want to look at the offensive success on paper from last year between those two. Yanni Diaz was a top five hitter in baseball. Yes, he is a better bat than Esauq Parades. Was Esauq Parades maybe the most slept on bat in all of baseball

[00:08:11] last year? I think there's a case he was. You're talking about a dude who was 12th in the league in WRC plus. Like that marquee put up last year of 137. It ranked ahead of Corbin Carroll. It ranked ahead of Cody Belanger. Ranked ahead of Adley Rushman.

[00:08:25] It ranked ahead of Luis Robert. Let's goes on. This guy was a real, real threat for the Rays last year. He was not quite Yanni Diaz but he was not far off. So between that and four years of club control. Yeah, I'm intrigued.

[00:08:39] He would be, I think he'd be the more expensive of the two players we would talk about mostly because of his age and his control. He would be expensive. This is a guy who would be getting pretty expensive once you get to

[00:08:50] that fourth year of control and he'd be in his fourth year of arbitration. There are some drawbacks though, for the Mariners. His bad of ball profile is not very good. His numbers honestly when I look at this, if you go look,

[00:09:04] go on baseball, Savant and look at his hit chart. A lot of his slugging numbers and his WRC plus numbers are propped up because he is a dead pull power hitter. All of his true power is dead pull.

[00:09:20] I mean, you can draw a line from probably halfway from left field to left center field to the foul pole. That's where his doubles are and that's where his home runs are. And that's it. That's where all of his power goes. You know what he reminds me of?

[00:09:34] Lyle, he reminds me of peak Brian Dozier. Hmm. Was Brian Dozier that big of a pull hitter? I honestly don't remember. Like obviously he hit home runs out to left field. I just, I don't remember off the top of my head the fact

[00:09:47] that Brian Dozier wasn't spraying the ball the other way all that much. He was a undersized infielder, not the biggest eggs of velocities in the world, but he wants to hit 42 home runs in a season by essentially dead pulling home runs to left field.

[00:10:01] And it looks like that's what Esauk Parades does. And even with a not great power profile, he's able to generate a lot of power because when he hits the ball far, he hits them in the right places.

[00:10:12] And what's funny is you look at his hit spray chart, there is like almost nothing else like on the warning track anywhere beyond left center field. There is almost nothing. There's just gap out there that is just not occupied because that's not

[00:10:28] the kind of hitter he is and it sort of explains why he has a downhitting profile. Don't get me wrong though. Esauk Parades would be a better infielder than all but J.P. Crawford of what the Mariners have on the roster.

[00:10:41] And I would not think twice about trading for him. Not, not, not even one hesitation. I would, I would do what is necessary to get him. I think we're in the same boat. Oh, and to clarify, yes, I remember Brian Dozier hitting 40 plus bombs with the twins,

[00:10:54] but I just didn't remember the fact he was just a dead pull hitter and nothing else. But that is a good point. And off that you think that's part of the reason that his batting ball chart was not great, right?

[00:11:05] You think like the reason his hard hit rates were down is because he was only a dead pull guy. Like we were talking about this a little bit this week when we were diving into Esauk Parades a little bit and doing our research on him.

[00:11:14] You said, yeah, look on paper, his batting ball profile doesn't look great when you look at his savant bubbles. But then when you dive deeper and see that all he does is pull the ball, that's probably the reason his hard hit rate and his barrel rate comes down.

[00:11:27] Right? It's like you can manipulate data in any walk of life to make it look favorable in your side. And that's essentially what Esauk Parades does. He manipulates his batted ball data and he essentially shrinks them into

[00:11:41] one, like sixth of the field and hammers that side of the field. And in the rest of the side of the field, there's just nothing there. He manages to hit the ball in the correct places at the correct launch angle

[00:11:56] and get essentially the perfect mix what requires a home run. And that will inflate his numbers even if it's not the hardest hit ball in the world. I'll guarantee you a lot of his home runs that he hits are not. They're not no doubters. Savant classifies no doubters.

[00:12:12] I'm sure that a lot of them are not no doubters and a lot of them are probably if you hit them in other sections of the field and other ballparks are just flat out not home runs because he doesn't have that kind of power.

[00:12:24] But you don't need that kind of power to hit a lot of home runs. You just need the correct approach, the correct ball pitches that you're going to attack and essentially, Lyle, it boils down to hitting pulled

[00:12:37] fly balls, pulled fly balls are the most dangerous and most likely to go for home runs out of any sort of bad at ball in baseball. And he does that quite well. So maybe he wouldn't have an issue transitioning over to T-Mobile Park

[00:12:50] because what do a lot of hitters run into the trouble of? The gaps are really big in left center and right center center fields. Obviously really big. The namesake of this podcast, the Marine layer takes the baseballs down

[00:13:00] a lot of the time, but if Parade is just going to spray the ball down the left field line and pull everything straight to left field is not all that deep at T-Mobile Park. 331 down the line, the fence isn't tall anymore.

[00:13:12] He could benefit off that if he was here. Maybe that wouldn't be a big deal for him if he's going to pull everything. And then if he's going to hit doubles in the gap in left center, that's OK too.

[00:13:21] Yeah, I would trade for this guy in a heartbeat. You need offense. And what does this guy do? He provides offense. Like you said, he is probably better than everybody on the infield not named JP Crawford. You can argue, honestly, he was better than JP Crawford.

[00:13:34] His WRC plus was higher than JP's this past year. And then when you look at what else he does, what do the Mariners want? They want a guy who walks a lot, doesn't strike out. What does he sock Parades do?

[00:13:46] Theme of a lot of the guys we've talked about over the last couple weeks. He walks a lot. He does not strike out. He walks over 10 percent of the time almost every year. He strikes out under 20 percent of the time almost every year.

[00:13:57] Both of those numbers really good, really, really good. So there's a lot about Parades that fits what the Mariners are looking for. He's not going to blow you away with his glove either. He's about an average defender.

[00:14:10] He's a slightly above average defender at third base, but it's really marginal. So we'll just go ahead and shock him up as an average defender. His value is going to come with his bat. And I will note on the fly ball stat,

[00:14:23] there's a stat out there that Luke Arkins tweeted out this week. So shout out to him for this stat. The T-Mobile Park does and probably has for years and years and years, has the lowest average fly ball distance in baseball. I think it's about 305 feet.

[00:14:39] That works directly against Esau Parades, whose goal is to hit a fly ball anywhere from 330 to 370 feet down the left field line for a home run. Well, what if those on average are going to be 10, 10 percent shorter because of where he's playing?

[00:14:57] So that's just something to think about. You say left field is not all that far. Well, it's not all that far in a neutral hitting environment, but T-Mobile Park is far from that. So you think it would actually create problems for him?

[00:15:09] I don't know. I just feel like I'm not I'm not saying for sure. I'm saying there is data to suggest that it could. You really never know, dog. We we see hitters who seem like they should have zero problem with this

[00:15:21] fucking ballpark and it ends up not mattering. I mean, crummy batting ball profile with Jesse Winker, but has a great approach at the plate flop. Teosca Hernandez, the best batted ball profile you could ask for. Just not the best play control flop.

[00:15:38] Like I think you just got to spin the dice eventually and see what works. You got to throw shit at the wall and see what sticks. I guess maybe that's all you can do. I still will never understand why Teo had such a problem here.

[00:15:52] Yes, he struck out, but it doesn't really make sense when everything suggested. Oh, he won't have a problem hitting in this park. And then he had a problem hitting in this park. Great is from at least everything we've gathered,

[00:16:05] a more complete hitter than Teosca is because while he may not hit the ball as far as Teosca does, he walks way more, strikes out way less, has a better approach and can still hit for power. So will he run into problems?

[00:16:18] I guess it's possible with that data behind you. But if it didn't work for Teo, it may not work for anybody. So like you said, throw it against the wall for a guy that was a four win player and a 137 WRC plus guy, you take your chance.

[00:16:32] I mean, even if it goes down to 115, I think the Mariners would take it. I really do. Even though they'd be trading for 137, all I'm going to ask is can every new Mariner, new Mariner hitter just go talk to Nelson Cruz?

[00:16:43] Have a sit down, talk for an hour and pick his mind how the hell he managed to master T-Mobile Park for four seasons had no issue. In fact, had the four best seasons of his career, arguably in a Mariners uniform.

[00:16:57] And yet for these guys here in the past 2020, it's like solving cancer. I don't know. I will say Nellie had that unbelievable year in Baltimore for one year before he got here, but his four years as a whole in Seattle were great. They were they were pretty incredible.

[00:17:14] Defies all logic of what we talk about now. So if you think Parades is going to cost more than the guy we're about to talk about, I mean, I'm not going to put you totally on the spot spot here. We can think through this a little.

[00:17:27] But if we were going to ballpark what a trade would look like for Parades, what does it look like? Because so for reference for Yandy, we said it would be about, we said Brian Wu, Harry Ford.

[00:17:37] I think we said Tyler Locklear and maybe it would cost a big leaguer. So if praise is going to be less than Diaz, what does that trade package look like? It's probably still one of the young arms and then maybe one more big prospect.

[00:17:51] I'm going to say an arm and a prospect pick whichever top prospect you want. It would probably not be Harry Ford. I'm thinking more of Colt Emerson if the rays are really shooting for upside who

[00:18:03] Colt Emerson, by the way, we will talk about him probably as the soft season goes along and we get closer to the season. But I think Jason Churchill thinks he's a clear cut number one in the system. Now anyways, so I'm thinking like a Colt Emerson

[00:18:16] if they want more projectability in the Mariners, maybe don't want to go high high. Maybe you do maybe do a Johnny Farmello like one of those guys. I don't know if Las Montes is that is highly touted enough.

[00:18:28] But I'm going to say an arm and a prospect because I would say two blue chippers for one young one young bat, maybe Gaby Gonzalez is in that range too. So then they'll probably throw someone into a lower level guy.

[00:18:41] So the highlight of the package going back to the rays would probably be around the ballpark of, let's say Bryce Miller and Gaby Gonzalez. Something like that. Yeah, it might be a little higher than Gaby Gonzalez, but everything's subjective.

[00:18:55] OK, so let's say then Bryce Miller and Colt Emerson, like you said. Yeah, I'll say Colt Emerson ballpark, which look, Emerson's got a ton upside, but he's also barely 18 years old. And and I would do that if I were the Mariners to go get Esau Parades.

[00:19:11] And we can play the what if game and down the road in in seven, eight years. Colt Emerson's the starting shortstop for the American League. We're like, oh, what are these fucking idiots doing? But I think that would just give us good podcast content down the road.

[00:19:25] So actually, you know what? That actually makes me want to do it more. So go for it, Jerry. There we go. And again, they have got to go get offense right now. And Parades, well, he is offense. Correct. OK, speaking of offense,

[00:19:40] there is another guy to get to here. And while he may not be the production level player that Parades was this last year, he is probably the bigger name. The second guy who was thrown out on Twitter this week as a potential guy

[00:19:55] to get shipped away from Baltimore and that may be on the block. Randy Arosa Rainer, like a guy who's been a staple in that raised line up for four years now, reports have it that this guy could go onto the trading block.

[00:20:08] Another guy that walks a lot, has power. We've seen what he can do in the postseason. I mean, this the last three years, he's put up a WRC plus between 124 and 127. He is a model of consistency, but he's about to hit our hit arbitration.

[00:20:24] The Rays are saying, well, maybe we don't want to pay him. So his name is being thrown out on the block all of a sudden. What do we think about this one? This dude would be a fun addition to the lineup. He brings everything you want to use.

[00:20:36] You're downplaying the production a little bit. I wouldn't do that. I mean, at age 28 this season, a 126 WRC plus, 23 home runs, 12% walk rate. I mean, he fits right into this Mariners lineup and talk about a guy who really

[00:20:52] over the course of the last four seasons has really improved his strikeout rate to a point what the Mariners would be very intrigued in. He was at 29% in his breakout in 2020, 28% in 2021. But then the last two seasons, it's a 24% and then a 23.9.

[00:21:10] That really stands out on top of the power, which honestly could be a little bit better. It was a little lower than I expected this season at 425. But 2023, if you just look past the triple slash, was his best season by a number of categories.

[00:21:26] He had his highest quality of contact by X-Wolva, by far, by the way, by far, his best season in quality of contact. He had his easily best walk rate this season with his lowest strikeout rate over a full season. He had his highest average exit velocity.

[00:21:45] I put RV, but that is exit velocity, highest average exit velocity this season. And then this is the first season, while he's had really great batted ball data overall, which is every that's like when we were talking about the negatives

[00:21:59] with ESOC Parades, not really the case with Randy. So outside of him having a little bit of a chase issue, the offensive profile is there. The quality of content is what you like. The strikeouts are down. The walk rate is up.

[00:22:13] Not a great defender, but I think Julio would love to have Randy out there with him. I should not have downplayed it. And I didn't mean to downplay it, to be honest. Maybe I used the wrong tone of voice.

[00:22:23] So let me let me up my tone of voice here. Yes, Randy Arosa-Rena is an all-star. He is a productive player. He would be awesome to have in the lineup. Maybe I was just trying to sell the fact that while he is still a great player,

[00:22:34] he is a step down from Parades. There's a reason we highlighted Parades first. He is the better offensive player, at least where we stand right now. The Merits could probably use infielders a little bit more.

[00:22:43] Yes, they do need an outfielder, but they need multiple infielders or a DH. So that's why we highlighted Parades first and foremost. But Randy Arosa-Rena would be awesome. Again, he is a model of consistency. Could his power numbers be better? Yes, they could.

[00:22:58] Could he hit more home runs? Yes, and playing in T-Mobile Park may hurt those home run numbers. But production's production. WRC Plus does not take ballparks into account. Again, it is saying no matter what ballpark you play in, this is what your production would be.

[00:23:14] And between 124 and 127, that's a really good player. And that's what Randy did. Maybe I'm a little bit skeptical because of the defense he plays. And maybe I didn't love seeing the fact that he doesn't take great routes to the ball. He's had some issues in the outfield.

[00:23:29] But that being said, if he just plays left field, how bad could it really be? Especially with Julio in center. And if you trade that for the offense, you can get out of Randy. Yeah, it's worth it. Or you just DH him half the time. OK.

[00:23:43] Or that look, he's had some perfectly fine defensive seasons. He's just very hit or miss year by year. This past year was not one of his good defensive seasons. Like in 2021, he was a perfectly fine defender. But this past year, no.

[00:23:55] And defensive runs saved actually has some plus. Plus four somehow. Yeah, so. But that was like probably my only reservation with this. Otherwise, I mean, Randy, again, he does chase a little bit and his strikeout rate, even though it's only 24 percent, 24 percent is in the 35th percentile.

[00:24:15] But considering what the Mariners had last season, an enormous improvement. So you would take that. It really gives you everything you want here with Randy. And again, he's just fun. He had fun at the home run derby in Seattle this season.

[00:24:29] And he's going to cost seven million dollars estimated by a Spotrack in arbitration this year and his first year of arbitration. Like, yeah, like, yes, yes. And you know what? He would probably be a little cheaper than ESOC parades to if I'm going to guess

[00:24:45] based on age and a number of years, he would be slightly less expensive than parades. What type of fucking world are we living in? Where Luis Urias is about to get five million bucks and Randy Arroz-Rena is going to get seven. Ask the arbitration people.

[00:25:04] I guess that's just wild to think about. Like those two players are only two million dollars worth of difference in value per the arbitration people. That seems crazy. What year is Arias in arbitration to? Yeah, maybe he's further along, which could be why he might be.

[00:25:24] Yes, Randy's in our one. Right? Yeah, he's an Arb 1. Randy's Arb 1. But even still, even so, when you look at those two players, that's still crazy to think about because again, like Randy Rosarain is an all star.

[00:25:34] Randy Rosarain is a he is a big name and he's a big name for a reason. He's a flashy player and he's a really productive player. So it's just funny to think about. I use the same logic as how is Evan White making more money than Julio?

[00:25:50] Oh, yeah. Well, well, why is that? Well, Julio's contract is about to kick in, though. He's about to start making a lot more. But that logic still stands. That's yeah, it does. How many superstars is Evan White making more money then? Hmm. Well, probably a decent amount.

[00:26:08] He's making more than. Well, actually, no, it's about to say he's making more than Corbin Carroll, but Corbin Carroll got the big contract. So he's making more than making that money yet. That yeah, maybe it maybe it comes later. Well, he's making more than like Gunnar Henderson.

[00:26:21] There's one for you and Adley. Yeah, that's that's kind of wild. Is Evan White going to get on the field this year? I hope not. Well, I did see some some people joking on online this week

[00:26:34] and I actually kind of got baited into it about about Evan White's playing time this upcoming season. I wouldn't say I don't know how Evan White's still in the organization, to be honest. I mean, if I'm him a first get healthy, Evan, but to like.

[00:26:50] I don't know how he plays. He best off playing somewhere else. OK, let me rephrase. Is he going to be on the field in triple A this year? Like, like, is he going to get healthy? That's what I'm getting at. I assume so.

[00:27:03] I mean, we're going to be coming out if he is healthy for the first day of, let's say, Tacoma season. We're talking about nearly three years since he's been on the. Well, no, that's not true. He played in some triple A games,

[00:27:15] but it has been nearly three years since he's been on a big league field at that point. That's for sure. How old is he now? He debuted at what, 24? I mean, he's he was close to twenty seventeen. Now, he was drafted in twenty seventeen.

[00:27:33] So he would be what, twenty seven? Do I have that right? You can look it up while we're talking about it. I don't know how we just got so side tracked to Evan White while talking about Randy Arosa, Raina. But oh, he's twenty seven. You're right.

[00:27:45] OK, it's because we were talking about all the contracts. What does this mean? So you would have to assume most of the reason he is still here, right, is because he got that extension. So he's under contract and they're trying to get something out of him.

[00:27:58] Like I guess, yeah. Yeah, I just heard twenty twenty three. Evan White is the Mariners biggest wild card. Where are you reading that? No, that was just on the Google search. It's a YouTube video. Well, I hate to break the news. Like his defense is still unbelievable.

[00:28:20] Can he even hit? Is it? I'm sure it is. Are you know, we haven't seen it in a while. That's true. We have not seen it a while. OK, anyway, ready to raise the rain up. They should trade for this guy.

[00:28:33] Absolutely. If if Parades is deemed to be too expensive in the Mariners eyes. Yeah, go trade for a Rosarita. Do they need infielders? Yes, they do. But what do we keep talking about? You have three spots to fill, three spots this winter.

[00:28:46] And they better be filled third base DH outfield three. And you need impact guys. So if you're going to cross off one of those benchmarks with Randy, great. Like sign me right up.

[00:28:59] That is a guy that would be a lot of fun with this really fun addition to the team and a guy that would probably be the third best bat in your lineup at this point, and that's great. They need a guy like that.

[00:29:11] I have a suggestion for the Tampa Bay race. Can we just do like kind of a roster swap? Can we just like pick pick positions that we want to swap with the race with? So let me let me pitch this to you.

[00:29:23] I'll we'll send Luis Arias cheaper than what Esau Parades will be. We'll send them and play their base a clean swap. That's what they want, right? Perfect. You're easy. When you're talking about one, this this is a hard one for you to accept here.

[00:29:40] You might wonder where I'm going with this. No way. I know where you're about to go. I know where you're about to go. We can send them Jared and we'll get back, Randy. Hmm. I thought you were about to say Dylan Moore. Oh, who's the raised utility guy?

[00:29:57] I mean, a bunch of different guys. No, it could be Parades. But anyways, Randy's the left fielder. I'll send him. Jared, we'll get Randy back. Yeah, but then then you still kind of have an issue to fill in outfield spot because look, while Kalmick is not like totally

[00:30:14] proven, he is your third outfielder if you trade for a Rosarine at that point. You get rid of Kalmick then what? OK, so here. OK, so actually this is actually going to be more painful for you. So we have outfielder three, Jared Kalmick and outfielder four, Dylan Moore.

[00:30:29] We got to swap one of them in my in this scenario here. That that is painful. I think it would have to be demo. OK, so Jared goes to outfield four. Demo goes to the raise and Randy comes back. Are you happy and at peace in this scenario?

[00:30:45] I am. But then how is Jared outfield four? It'd be Julio, Randy, and then who's the third? It'll be Jared. That's the point. Yeah. Damn. Yeah, they do need an outfielder. They need an outfield. What do you think I've been sitting here talking about?

[00:31:01] Like, oh, man, we can mix in a couple more roster swaps there. Tyler Glass now. How does Marco Gonzalez sound? Sure. You listen. We talked about this over text this week. Well, this would never happen. What about a world where you want to talk about roster swapping?

[00:31:21] Well, it's not position for position. My idea. You go sign Blake Snell. You do a straight two for two of Bryce Miller and Brian Woo for Yandie Diaz and either Esauk Parades or Randy Rosarino like pick your poison. Like, listen, I love both Miller and Woo.

[00:31:37] But if you could go sign Blake Snell and get those two, sign me up. You could drive them to the airport, too. I think they both they're both these Siders. Oh, man. That would look.

[00:31:49] I mean, that would that would be a crazy blockbuster trade because here's the thing. I'm sure people are saying, well, you still need pitching depth to trade two controllable guys. That'd be pretty tough. But with that, say you have Blake Snell, right?

[00:32:03] And then you go get let's let's say the two corner infielders. Yandie, you got Esauk Parades. Then your rotation is to begin opening day. It would be Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Blake Snell, Logan Gilbert, Marco Gonzalez

[00:32:16] as the five who is a perfectly fine number five starter when he is on. Emerson would be the six. And when Robbie comes back around the all star break, then Marco becomes the six and then Robbie Ray slides into the five spot. Like think about that.

[00:32:30] I know like everybody loves having pitching depth. I love having pitching depth. But if you could do a two for two swap to go get Yandie Diaz and Esauk Parades, oh, I do that. I don't 100% do it now. Let me be very pitching.

[00:32:43] The funny thing about that you still do have pitching down. Correct. And if you want to go out and sign somebody on the, you know, bottom end of the starting picture market this winter to be your number

[00:32:55] seven starter, somebody who's going to cost a one to two year deal for almost no money just to have some depth, you could still do that if you really wanted to, but then you get two ridiculous bats back in return.

[00:33:07] Like I would, I would do that in a heartbeat. And again, let me say this to be loud and clear. Am I saying this is going to happen? No. Do I think the Mariners would do that? No. Would I do it? Yeah, I'd do it. OK, Jerry. Yeah.

[00:33:21] OK. And it's final. What? And it sounds like you're on board with that. Oh, 100%. I'm in. I'm into win a world series. OK. In summary of these two suggestions, I would acquire either of them. I would have zero issue acquiring either Randy Rosarano or Esau Parades.

[00:33:38] I would acquire both of them if we're doing a two for two swap. However, I would still take Yandi Diaz over both of them pretty easily. Ditto. Yep. I mean, look, I would be happy to get either of those guys.

[00:33:52] They both are playing positions of need for the Mariners. Yandi Diaz is the number one guy. We're talking about guys on the trade market. For me, call this a hot take if you want. I'd rather have Yandi Diaz than Juan Soto. He is more club controllable.

[00:34:05] He is not going to be as tough to get because Soto is like the guy on the trade market. Everybody's talking about Juan Soto this one Soto that. Well, actually, I don't know, would Yandi cost an equal package to Soto because he has no way?

[00:34:19] Have you seen some of these? What has been asked? Yeah. OK. It's pretty ridiculous. So yes, Yandi would not cost as much as Juan Soto. More club control than Juan Soto fills a position of need because him and Ty France could switch off between first base and DH.

[00:34:34] And then there you go, you've got your guy. Again, happy with Paradez, happy with Randy, number one guy on the trade market for me. And it sounds like for you too, Yandi Diaz. Sounds good to me, Jerry. You have our thoughts. Go make it happen.

[00:34:49] OK. If if you're going on 710 Seattle Sports and saying you want Yandi Diaz to Mike Salt, which you did a couple of weeks ago, I would hope you double down here. Well, I hope Jerry was listening to that one. He should he should take our advice.

[00:35:02] Listen to the Green Lair podcast. Hey, we're a good pod. Yeah, we are. I mean, I will say thank you to Mike Salt. I doubt he's listening to this episode, but that was awesome.

[00:35:12] It was pretty cool to get to go on there and and spread the love of the of the pod. Also talked a little bit of football too. That was that was great. And I was like, yeah, I was listening to the whole thing. That was a blast.

[00:35:23] And when I and yeah, when I say this is a good podcast, by the way, that's my own extremely biased two cents. Maybe everybody listening thinks this podcast sucks, which if you think that, well, you're entitled to your opinion.

[00:35:34] I'd say maybe maybe on some days I'd say I agree with you. If you don't leave a comment, please. Yes, we love we really do love reading them. We I mean, we read most of the comments. Do we respond to all of them? No.

[00:35:45] So listen, like I'm sure there's people out there that thinks it's like Pat McAfee says and is open to a show. It's like this show sucks. And the fact that you listen, we're very, very grateful. That's that's our motto. Uh, before we get to our M.O.B.

[00:36:03] wrap around a quick word from simply Seattle used to be watching on YouTube for this ad read because Lyle, you're looking at this cap right here. You like what you see? No, because it's reminding me of the loss tonight.

[00:36:15] But the cap itself, the style, the design, where you can get it. Love it. The Seahawks did where their throwback uniforms losing to the Cowboys tonight. And I'm wearing if you're watching on YouTube, you can see this crystal clear or throwback,

[00:36:28] Seahawks adjustable cap, which I got from simply Seattle. It's fantastic. This fits my head perfectly. It looks fantastic. And you can get this same hat if you go to simply Seattle and use our code Marine 15, you get 15% off your order. But it's not just Seahawk stuff they have.

[00:36:49] They have Sonic stuff. I got some Sonic stuff from them too. You can get Kraken stuff. You can get Husky stuff. You can get, of course, more Seahawk stuff. You can get Mariners stuff. All sorts of Pacific Northwest themed gear and accessories.

[00:37:03] All you can find them all with our friends at Simply Seattle. Go online to their store at Simply Seattle dot com and you can use our code Marine 15 for 15% off your order. The perfect place guys for you to do your holiday shopping.

[00:37:17] You can do it all in one spot online at Simply Seattle dot com. I've got to throw one more thing in here for some. When you're in Seattle because you're talking about all the different things

[00:37:27] you can get when you look at the Mariners stuff, I got this light blue Julio sweatshirt. I absolutely love it. I'm not wearing it right now. Maybe I should have been. I think it is awesome. It's $30 and if you use our code, it's even less.

[00:37:39] It's like a light blue sweatshirt, which I love that color and it's Julio's face right in the middle and he's wearing the shades and everything awesome, awesome design and go buy it. Let's get to our MOB wrap around. Up first, we go to St. Louis.

[00:38:03] What an interesting week and a half it's been for the St. Louis Cardinals, a team that openly said they wanted to spend and they wanted to get pitching. So they weren't going for the top of the market.

[00:38:15] They went for the middle and then the upper middle signing three arms. They went for they signed Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn. So Sonny Gray is a really good signing for them. I do like that. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson.

[00:38:27] You kind of just shrug your shoulders and say, whatever, there'll be placeholders in the rotation. But some new news came out about the Cardinals this week that they could potentially be interested in Dylan Cease as well. John Mozellock, their GM said they weren't

[00:38:42] totally done adding and wouldn't say like said they weren't necessarily done adding to the rotation either, especially for a younger, more long term option in the rotation. As you noticed those last two not long term guys in Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, but Dylan Cease could be.

[00:39:00] And he would fetch quite the package, but we know the Cardinals have the cache to acquire him. I've got to say first, you're doing a real disservice to Sonny Gray by sandwiching him between Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn when reading off those

[00:39:15] three starters for the guy that just finished second in AL Cy Young voting. You sandwiched him between Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. Oh, well, he is my address. He can he can he could take it up with me in person.

[00:39:29] What do you call Sonny Gray when he's at the top of his game? Because he finished again second in AL Cy Young voting. Do you really call him an ace? I think I think of him more as a very good number two. Yeah, I'll say high end to.

[00:39:41] I would agree with that. Yeah, when he's not like he's not care call. I yeah, who won the Cy Young. I agree. He's not care call. But they got him on what was a pretty friendly deal and he's a guy

[00:39:53] that can really help that rotation, especially if they're going to go add more. Where the rotation sits right now, you can get by with it. I think they need to add more to it for sure.

[00:40:03] I think if they're going to go out and get a guy like Dylan Cease and you're going to have him and Sonny Gray at the top of your rotation and then you mix in some potential others, Miles Michaelis, Steven Matts, Gibson, Lynn.

[00:40:15] Like it gets a lot more interesting. But I do think they need one more true arms. Sonny Gray is a good start, but I personally am not surprised. They're interested in more pitching. I'm not either. I especially think of this.

[00:40:26] You say just get by and I'll get even more specific. There's just not much upside or high end stuff in that rotation. Let me know if you're like if you're in like if you're in a five game series

[00:40:37] with the Cardinals and their five starters they roll out are so Sonny Gray. Yes, well, a well above average starter. But then you have Kyle Gibson, Lance Lin and then Steven Matts and Miles Michaelis. There's no where's the upside there? Sonny Gray, but that's about it.

[00:40:54] And Sonny Gray can't throw all five games. No, he can't. But Dylan Cease slots in. He becomes the number one, which Dylan Cease speaking of Cy Young runner ups was the Cy Young runner up in 2022. And I would say has significantly better stuff than Sonny Gray does

[00:41:10] and quite a bit more upside. He's more durable. He pitches deep into games. I mean, his slider when he is on is just unbelievable. I can't believe the White Sox would trade him, but that's kind of the state

[00:41:23] of the perpetual state of the White Sox franchise of having good players and trading them away because they can't build anything else around them. So, you know, dog, should we try something? Do you want to try something?

[00:41:35] Do you want to propose a trade for the Mariners to get Dylan Cease and see what kind of response we get? Huh. Let's go with. Hmm. We're going to reacquire Colton Wong or resign him and then flip him to the White Sox package with cash considerations.

[00:41:59] You can throw it in there. OK, so Colton Wong, Evan White and cash considerations for Dylan Cease I think is a fair deal because if you ask White Sox Twitter, that's essentially what they thought we put in our Louise Robert package like a month ago.

[00:42:13] Well, I would guess the Cardinals are going to offer significantly more if they don't, I think the city of St. Louis might burn down with all the people on the south side coming over there and then giving them some business.

[00:42:25] For the record, if you didn't listen to the episode, probably a little over a month ago, we put together a Louise Robert trade package because we put together like a wish list and we said it would be Brian Wu, Cole Young and

[00:42:37] Jonathan Classe, which we talked to some White Sox people. We know it's like, yeah, like that would probably get it done. But according to some people on White Sox Twitter, they were not having it. I think, yeah, as we've joked about in all seriousness,

[00:42:49] I don't think a lot of people in the baseball world like understand what Brian Wu's value is. I think I think it's very, very kind of ignored at this point and slept on where the people that really pay attention.

[00:42:59] No. Oh yeah, like he's got front line upside in his game. But with Dylan Cease and getting back to the Cardinals, yes, if they acquire him, they get much more deadly. I don't like even tie this to the Mariners in a legit point.

[00:43:15] So the Cardinals actually swing this trade. The young bats of the Cardinals are now off limits. And there's no like we talked all season about the Mariners potentially linking up with the Cardinals for a trade for a young bat. Well, they acquire Dylan Cease.

[00:43:29] There's no need to trade for Bryce Miller or Brian Wu. And the Mariners have they lose every single ounce of leverage they had in trade talks, which sucks because those guys would fit right in on the Mariners roster if they go out and acquire one.

[00:43:42] But you can't do that if Dylan Cease is already a Cardinal. They're probably still in the mix right now, the Mariners. But you're right. Cardinals go get Dylan Cease. That's probably done. And when you say young bats, we're probably talking about Brandon

[00:43:56] Donovan, maybe Nolan Gorman or Jordan Walker. Are those the three you're kind of looking at? Yes. Like, yeah. Would Walker really get traded? I don't know. I'm guessing the Cardinals would not exactly be itching to move him. Maybe Donovan or Gorman are the two more realistic ones.

[00:44:12] But yeah, like to get one of those guys for Miller or Wu, I'm sure it's something the Mariners have at least thought about. And yeah, so if Dylan Cease is there, that would not be an issue. He's not even Dylan Cease is really not that expensive.

[00:44:26] 8.8 million dollars, two years of club control left. And judging how the Cardinals got Nolan Aronato, I mean, would you be shocked if they just totally fleeced the White Sox? I don't know if I would be. No, another team with a really bad owner, just like the Rockies

[00:44:43] were when they traded away Aronato, like not really. The White Sox, like the reason they're doing this is because they're about to go through another rebuild. Remember a couple of short years ago, we thought this team was the model for American League rebuilds and they were going to

[00:44:56] be a perennial threat for a long time. And that has not happened all of a sudden. So just like every other White Sox team in history, unfortunately, every other AL central team that's tried to do a rebuild in the last decade. Nobody can do it well.

[00:45:11] The Guardian somewhat, but that's about it. So AL central, not the model, I guess. No, it's not. Second topic here. The Mets made a signing this week. They signed Luis Severino, one year deal head into Queens joining

[00:45:27] a rotation that much like the Cardinals needs a lot of depth. And they get some, I guess. Like, like how are you even viewing Luis Severino at this point? Can't be very high and I can't view the Mets rotation very high either.

[00:45:43] This is going to be such a step back for the Mets this season. I don't know how Steve Cohen's going to manage to be patient for a season because he's been he's been the epitome of not being patient or being impatient if I'm going to use proper English.

[00:45:56] And I don't know how he is going to sit through an entire season and watch Jose Quintana, Kodai Senga, Luis Severino, Tyler McGill, Joey Lucchese and Jose Butto. Is it Butto? Butto? I forget how to say it. But those are the Mets starting pitching options right now,

[00:46:17] not exactly looking up as they say. I think there's a reason these guys are in on Yamamoto because they need a lot of depth behind Kodai Senga. One year ago, or at least when Opening Day started in 23, these guys were on top of the world.

[00:46:32] They said we have Max Scherzer, we have Justin Verlander. I guess on Opening Day Verlander was injured. He missed the first few weeks and then he got back. But still they were like Scherzer, Verlander, Kodai Sango comes over from Japan. We're loving this rotation.

[00:46:44] It's not the case anymore. They have some work to do and they need one to two more top of the rotation arms to get that rotation back to being. OK, serviceable is not the right word, but back to being a contender

[00:46:58] because you can't just rely on Kodai Senga only. And if we're going to get into Luis Severino, dude has been injured nonstop basically since 2019. In the hundred innings he threw in 2022, he was pretty solid. But then here in 23, he reverted back to the old Luis Severino of Hurtalot

[00:47:16] did not pitch well and hasn't had much consistency. Yeah, he's probably the worst starter who threw 90 innings this year. Probably like six, six ADRA and a guy who used to strike out batters about 28 percent of the time had a 19 percent strikeout rate this past season.

[00:47:32] Red flags. That's a lot of red flags. And they give him a lot of money. They didn't give him a lot of years. He could just suck on the rotation and then they DFA him in the middle of the season

[00:47:41] and are like, OK, because you know, like it doesn't matter to Steve Cohen how much he's paying a guy, he will cut him without issue. I mean, shit, there's still they're still paying. I think both Verlander and Scherzer in some aspects.

[00:47:53] So like, I guess, like there's some upside. He still throws hard. His off his off speed stuff is what's really deteriorated over these years. And I don't know if the Mets will be the ones to get him back.

[00:48:07] It if he keeps getting hurt, he's not getting any younger. I don't see how this is an upside at all. It is a shame what's happened to him with all the injuries because Luis Severino in 2017 and 2018, this was one of the 10 best starters in baseball.

[00:48:24] And then the injuries just took a toll on the guy because he was that good. He was he was that level of a pitcher. He was a true ace back then, but he's not that same guy anymore. No, he's not.

[00:48:35] I don't think he is the future of the Mets rotation. One other starter to note here in the wrap around Kent to my aid assigns a two year deal for twenty four million dollars with the Tigers in a in a central signing. Yeah, it is.

[00:48:52] Look, Ken to my aid is not some ace. He's not the same guy who was back with the Dodgers or anything like that. But you know what? He provides a little bit of stability in that rotation. So the Tigers rotation is it sits right now.

[00:49:04] Tariq Scoobal, who as we know when he's healthy is really good. It's Ken to my Aida, that manning who was a really high prospect, but has been a roller coaster since hitting the big leagues. Reese Olson and then Casey Meyes, assuming he gets back in healthy this year.

[00:49:18] Like it's something like that's not the worst rotation I've ever seen by any stretch. Like there's some there's some reason to be intrigued and maybe a little bit excited if you're Tiger's fans. But yeah, I think my it is basically a four or five starter at this point

[00:49:30] and twelve million dollars for a back end starter feels about what the price is. So I think it's about as simple as that. I don't know if this really raises the profile of the Tigers rotation

[00:49:40] that much or if the Tigers rotation itself without him would have raised its profile that much, but this is a Tiger's team getting better. So there are there definitely ones to keep on the lookout for. OK, let's close out the show with Speak Your Mind.

[00:49:55] Speak your mind, Spock. It wouldn't be unwise. What is necessary is never unwise. All right, Laoh, what's on your mind? Let's talk about two things. Number one in the world of the NFL. How is Tim Boyle an NFL quarterback?

[00:50:17] Has anybody actually dug in and done any research on this? I'm thinking about it because he's now making starts for the jet. Zach Wilson got benched again and Tim Boyle is playing in games like a people actually dug in on Tim Boyle.

[00:50:30] This guy, when he played at Yukon of all places, let me read you his career numbers in all three seasons he played. He never completed more than 55 percent of his passes. So not very good. And it gets better than that.

[00:50:47] His career touchdown thrown in three years, one, one touchdown thrown in three years, his career interceptions in three years, 13 in three years at Yukon, Tim Boyle through one touchdown, 13 picks. And he has now been a journeyman NFL backup and he's now starting games. I don't know how.

[00:51:07] I don't know why. But this guy, this guy is living the life. He's making backup quarterback money in the NFL after having like one of the worst college careers we've seen. His agent deserves like what agents take 1 percent.

[00:51:20] His agents to get like 15 percent of whatever Tim Boyle makes. That's like that's an absurd sales job. I think I saw the stat two on Tim Boyle that over those three seasons was it three or four seasons he was quarterback at Yukon? Three, I believe.

[00:51:36] OK, those three seasons he was as you could tell by his stats. But this actually backs it up. He had the lowest QBR in division one college football. And it's not like he's like some unbelievable athlete either.

[00:51:51] He looks like your standard like Walmart white dude back there in the pocket. You like who's an example of somebody like that? It's like Mike Glennon. Trevor Simeon. That's that's a good one. Yeah, yeah, those type of guys. I don't get it.

[00:52:08] Let me tell you what that when the Jets got against the Rams in that 2020 season when they were just abysmal and had a chance to get Trevor Lawrence, that has to be the worst win in the history of the NFL

[00:52:20] because the rest of that Jets roster is actually very good. If they had Trevor Lawrence, I can't even imagine what type of team they'd be right now. Instead, they were forced to trade first round picks for Aaron Rodgers

[00:52:31] who played four plays before ending his season back to Zach Wilson, who has found absolutely no success now in three seasons. If we spin zone this, does that mean Aaron goes to Jacksonville? Hmm. Would he go there? I don't even know. Jacks, oh, yeah.

[00:52:49] No, look, what I mean, if we're truly swapping roles theoretically, yes, but in in a vacuum, probably not. I don't think so either. I think you like Aaron. Is this fucker can this dude's not playing? It's all it's all it's all an act.

[00:53:07] Yeah, I think I think he is I think he's back on the practice field and and trying to make it look like he's going to come back. But again, like that is such a quick recovery. I think between the fact of that,

[00:53:20] the fact that the Jets are probably going to push themselves out of the playoff race here pretty soon. I doubt it because look, Aaron Rodgers says he's going to be back around Christmas time. I have not heard the Jets pack up that statement.

[00:53:34] I've heard Aaron Rodgers say it. Like when they show you the clips of him throwing, have you seen him run a single play? Like has he gone under center and actually dropped back? You know what I see? I see him. Someone will give him the ball.

[00:53:47] He'll step back once and he'll like throw one lightly for five to ten yards. I'm like. I remember like before one of the Sunday night games, he's just like out there thrown in like someone's like someone was

[00:53:59] between like, oh my God, Aaron Rodgers is just defying modern science. Look at him out there slinging that football. I'm like he's standing flat footed throwing a football in sweats. What are we talking about? I don't I don't think he's going to play.

[00:54:16] Remember when Cam Acres had the Achilles injury and then he came back really, really quickly? Well, I don't know if this had anything to do with it or not. I'm certainly anything but a doctor. But Cam Acres did get injured again somewhat shortly after that.

[00:54:29] So I don't know. That's a quick timetable to come back. It's not happening. Yeah, I can flat out say it is not happening. It would be an absolute miracle if his Achilles manages to hold up

[00:54:42] in an NFL football game with three and a half months of recovery like. Yeah, I yeah, I don't think he's playing again. I think a lot of it will have to do too with the fact that Jets are probably not making the playoffs.

[00:54:56] So look, it's going to be his excuse. Yeah, exactly. I think I think it's a lot of drama more than anything. Also really quickly, my one other speaker, my thing here before I toss it over to you. Nobody knows what's going on with Shohei Otani.

[00:55:11] If you're out there trying to scoop sources and tweet out Otani news, unless you're Jeff Passon, Ken Rosenthal or one of the big national reporters, I'm sorry, but like you don't know what you're talking about. I have seen way too many people over the last week attempting

[00:55:25] to try to say sources telling me this is what's going on with Shohei Otani. This is what put it over the top today. And I know I sent it to you because there was a dude who T.J.

[00:55:36] kind of rolled his eyes when I sent this, but it was not some dude with four followers who just tweeted it out into the Twitterverse with like 10 views. No, this got over a million views with people really interacting with it.

[00:55:46] With this dude that says, oh, let me just read it. Otani update as expected. If Cubs made an offer, it is believed by many that it is down to the Dodgers and the Blue Jays. So I want you to notice how I just stated that tweet.

[00:56:01] That was word for word when it said somebody replied, it's like, oh, you Jeff Passon over here. I can get behind this. And then he goes, no, LOL. That's my prediction. It's like, dude, are you, are you serious with that shit? Like you're tweeting out here. Otani update.

[00:56:19] It's down to Dodgers and Blue Jays. And then in some random reply, you're like, oh, actually that's my prediction because then there was some other dude today who was like, oh, the giants. I'm told they're still a front runner. So let me make this loud and clear.

[00:56:31] Unless you're Jeff Passon or Ken Rosenthal or somebody like that, you don't know what you're talking about with Shohei because guess what? Nobody really knows what's going on. Nobody does until Jeff Passon sends that tweet out saying this is where he's signing. You don't know what's happening.

[00:56:46] I'm sorry. Like, like, I'm, let me make that loud and clear. And if you're out on Twitter trying to break news, like you're lying. I guess this is what happens when you can give everyone a check mark. Everyone thinks they can break news. Thank you.

[00:56:59] Who could have seen this coming? Thank you, Ewan. Okay. Um, this is, this, this is the last thing I'm going to say about Shohei because tying it back to the Mariners here a little bit. Like for all we know, I know all you Mariners fans out there are

[00:57:12] saying it's not happening. Don't even bother with it. He's not coming. All that. That is based off of your personal belief that, that what you think is going to happen deep down in your heart of your soul. But guess what?

[00:57:28] You don't really know for all we know the Mariners have had multiple meetings with Shohei. Each year I was made on the pitch of a lifetime and he's thinking about signing here in the next couple of days.

[00:57:38] He also, for all we know, could have never taken one meeting and even had the Mariners on his radar. We have legitimately no idea. So people out there that think they know what's going to happen. You don't.

[00:57:47] We need to wait to see what Passon says and what he tweets out saying, this is where Otani signing because the people trying to break news don't know. That was spirited Lyle. Yes. I don't know how I'm going to follow that up.

[00:58:00] Well, I'm giving you the platform here to do your best. It is conference championship weekend in college football. And I thought this would be a perfect platform to mourn the loss of the 14 playoff this weekend. Is the four team playoff perfect?

[00:58:18] No, but it is sure a hell of a lot better than what next year will be in a 12 team play up where this upcoming weekend will not mean shit for any team playing. Not a single team will be that invested

[00:58:35] in this conference championship weekend because of what will happen next season and diluting down the playoff. Like I'm sorry, the games will not matter as much. They will be less interesting. The regular season games will be less interesting.

[00:58:50] And eventually you might realize, hey, the BCS wasn't the worst idea in the world because it really meant every game mattered. Isn't that the thing of college football Lyle where every game matters and when you eventually lose a football game? That's when the other team storms the field.

[00:59:05] You know, that's the big difference between college football and the NFL. When you lose, you're out. Sorry. But now all of a sudden, oh, these games just don't matter as much if you just want to go to the NFL, which it will eventually

[00:59:19] or a mini version of the NFL. Why don't you just rip off the band aid and do it and stop dancing in this middle ground? Man. And like, you know what we're going to look forward to, Lyle?

[00:59:30] In this final year of the 14 playoff, as I say, it's still a superior system to what will eventually come next year. We're probably going to get three really shitty games. I'm going to be completely honest. The college football playoff has given us dog shit.

[00:59:45] Year after year after year, except last year, by the way, pretty good. Except for the championship. That one was probably the worst of them all. But the 12 team playoff. I mean, I'm just not looking forward to an SEC team going up by 60 over the group of five winner.

[01:00:01] Like, I'm just not really looking forward to that. You're telling me that's exciting. You're telling me that's worth expanding the playoff for. If you're going to put a group of five team in there, why don't you make them earn it? OK. Like, that's it.

[01:00:15] I'm like, I can't believe we're expanding to a 12 team playoff. It's probably going to get bigger too. It's probably going to get bigger and it's going to it's going to if they're just going to get bigger.

[01:00:24] Why don't they just do what the rest of college athletics do and do a 60 14 bracket? Well, that'd be a lot of football games and pretty taxing on players. That's really the reason players short in the regular season.

[01:00:39] Well, you know this already, but I disagree with you on this. I cannot wait for a 12 team playoff. I I I want more games to matter. And I know you think that makes the regular season games less valuable. I want I want postseason games to matter.

[01:00:51] They won't matter. Well, it will matter until guys start sitting out of those first round like in your five versus 12 game, then it will then it will stop mattering. I don't really think that's going to happen. Are you sure about that?

[01:01:05] Those are playoff games that you're playing for a national title. There's nobody on a tell me you're a 12 seed. You actually think you can win this. You won't you would be a three touchdown underdog to the top four teams

[01:01:17] in the bracket and you think you would win like this isn't like this sport is not there's no parody in college football. If you're looking for parody in a sport, go watch something else. Big playoff fields are for sports with parody like college basketball.

[01:01:33] That is a sport that you can have a big field because there's a shit ton of parody. There is no parody in college football. We can't pretend like there is. I don't I don't know what you want me to tell you.

[01:01:46] I nobody in a locker room is sitting and looking at Vegas odds and saying, oh, we're three touchdown underdogs. Let's sit out of this game. No, everybody in that locker room is going to practice with the mindset that they can go win.

[01:01:58] There are the reason guys sit out of bowl games is because the games objectively do not matter playoff games. If they are playoff games in a 12 field, you're playing for a title. And I don't think guys will sit out of that. I really don't. And the game but.

[01:02:12] But like, do you think TCU thought they could be Georgia last year? Do you think they thought they could win? You they went in there with that championship mindset. Yes, of course, they believed in their locker room. They could do it.

[01:02:24] It doesn't matter the worst teams in the field than that. The point is I don't want to see bowl games because bowl games actually don't matter. I want to see games that matter. That's my thing. That's why I like the expanded playoff. TCU, by the way.

[01:02:42] TCU believe that they could win that game. Nobody else did, but they did in that locker room. So yes, they thought they could win. Obviously, they had no shot, but they believed it. So I think I do agree. Bowl games suck.

[01:02:54] They're like they're a relic of the past. If you think about the model, well, actually, sorry, you know, there are things bowl games could do to get players to play in the game. It really is not that complicated. Comes down to money. Exactly.

[01:03:08] Every bowl game, first of all, most of the bowls are already owned by ESPN. Like flat out. Most of them are most of the bowl games are essentially a marketing platform for the national championship. That's it. That's how that's why they play the bowl.

[01:03:24] They want people to watch. So you're like, oh, by the way, we're playing the playoff in two weeks. You should watch it. That's it. That's the whole point. That's why ESPN owns all these things. And you know what ESPN gets a lot of? Ad revenue.

[01:03:37] And you know what they should do with that ad revenue to get players to play in bowl games? Hey, if you promote this bowl game, we'll give you 10 percent of the cut of the tickets. We'll give you 10 percent of our ad revenue for the game.

[01:03:50] You want to play now? Once you get an $80,000 check to play in one football game. Oh, it sounds a lot better, doesn't it? That does sound pretty nice. Hmm. But would that keep blue chip first rounders from sitting out of bowl games?

[01:04:05] I don't know if it would because the draft money that they would get would still be more. I mean, probably, but like you keep most of the players in it. Like there's no way you're convincing a first rounder to play in a bowl game period. I don't think.

[01:04:21] Which is why I like the expanded playoff. The like more games that will matter once they turn into blowouts and then you'll turn the TV off like. OK, I'm still looking forward to build up to the game will be great.

[01:04:37] And then the score will be 40 40 to nothing at halftime. And it's like, OK, what was the why are we letting a 12 seed in the playoff? Like they can't win a national championship. They can't do it. Why are we why are we putting them in here?

[01:04:50] There's discourse for everything like whatever something goes the way that the public had a preconceived notion about, of course, they're going to tweet about it. There were people this year talking about, oh, we should actually get rid of buys in the MLB playoffs.

[01:05:05] Like that was a thing this year because there's always going to be some narrative. But I still would rather see an expanded playoff deal. Again, I just want to see more games that matter. That like I know I know we have to agree to disagree on this

[01:05:17] because we have different takes on it. But like, I don't know, I'm excited for it. That's I just don't understand like the point of a national championship and then just wasting like it's essentially like wasting time. Like I understand the big picture of it.

[01:05:29] ESPN is going to make a shit ton more money off of it and all the schools are going to make a shit ton more money off this. Like in the end, like that's what it is. And I understand the business side of it.

[01:05:38] The logic side of winning a national championship makes zero sense because college football is not like every other sport. I think you will agree it is a one of a kind sport period. Therefore, it should have a one of a kind championship with two teams. And that's it.

[01:05:54] All right. Fair enough. I'm not saying I'm not saying you have flawed reasoning. I just think we we disagree a little bit. But the good news for you this weekend, dog, is you can watch what will hopefully be some good conference championship games. How about that?

[01:06:09] Well, are they all going to be good? I mean, I feel like the Pac-12 one is going to be awesome. It's going to be the best one. And I think it's going to be a sadly but also great way for the conference to go out in Vegas.

[01:06:20] Um, for I believe that's the it's like a first top five matchup in forever in the Pac-12, too, which is which is great. The SEC was going to be great though. Wouldn't be shocked if Georgia just somehow just steamrolls Alabama. No problem because they're just a machine.

[01:06:36] The big 10 ones going to be an absolute disgrace. I have no idea how that conference is worth so much fucking money when the product on the field sucks. You're telling me you're not looking forward to a Kirk for ensled Iowa Hawkeyes offense dog.

[01:06:52] You're telling me Iowa is going to be part of a conference that is worth a billion dollars a year. Incredible. So is Rutgers. So maybe not for long. What's Ohio State? It's like, wait, we're giving all this money to Rutgers.

[01:07:07] But you know, the big 12 one will be good. And then the ACC title game, I mean, yeah, like, I don't know if I'm excited for that because it's a backup quarterback against Louisville. Yeah, without Jordan Travis, we just don't really know who Florida State is anymore.

[01:07:21] I guess this will be telling this weekend what they do against Louisville because Louisville is a good team. They're a top 10. So yeah, I'll say that I'm glad we got to this point where I can just rail against the big 10 and have no clue of

[01:07:31] of why people value their football so high. I mean, if you're picking like think of like the two to two most watchable conferences, Lyle, like, what do you think is the most watchable conference in college football? I mean, it's the SEC.

[01:07:45] OK, but like the pack toll is probably up there too in terms of like what like what you would want to physically like sit down and watch what's the best quality of football. The competition somewhat close in the pack 12. Yeah, sure. Yeah, that's a point.

[01:07:58] I mean, I thought someone brought up a good point of this. Like it doesn't reflect in the dollars and it doesn't help that pack 12 schools have fair weather fan bases, which is very, very on brand for the West Coast and why they don't have a conference.

[01:08:10] But the football product on the field more often than not, especially this year, like so much more watchable. Like I just think back to the Oregon Washington game earlier this year that's arguably the best prime time game that like ABC has gotten this season.

[01:08:24] And like I think of the Oregon State Washington game, like high level players all across the field and it's disappointing. And I don't understand how the Big Ten earns all this money with the dog shit they put out on the field

[01:08:36] with most of their most of their schools just being bad. We'll never know, will we? But I don't think so. We can look forward to what will hopefully be a good conference championship weekend. And I am looking forward to that above all things.

[01:08:51] So we can sit back and watch and I'm sure we'll reconvene about it here next week or so. All right, I think that just about wraps up this edition of the Marine Layer podcast. You guys know the drill. If you want to listen to the full form podcast,

[01:09:03] you can do so wherever you get your audio podcasts. If you do that, if you're listening, make sure to download. Make sure to leave us a five star review. Make sure to follow the show. Those reviews and downloads help us out a ton.

[01:09:14] So if you do that, you're really doing us a big favor. Watch on YouTube too. Like, comment, subscribe over there. Full video side of the podcast is there on YouTube. And then on social media, you can check us out on Instagram,

[01:09:26] TikTok, Twitter and YouTube shorts at Marine Layer pod. That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. Talk to you soon.