Episode 86: Reacting To The Mariners Signing Mitch Garver

[00:00:00] Welcome to Episode number 86 of the Marine Layer Podcast, the Mariners sign Mitch Garver. Happy holidays. We will react. Before we start the show, here's your reminder to download our episodes, leave us a five-star review and follow the show wherever you listen to your audio side of the pod.

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[00:00:39] And we welcome you to this episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the JustFaceball podcast network recording here on Christmas Eve Sunday, December 24th. And the Mariners off-season has officially begun the addition phase they have signed

[00:00:54] Mitch Garver for a two-year $24 million contract initial reaction right off the bat. The Mariners have their full-time DH for the 2024 season. So refreshing that they have finally accepted. They just need to put a dude in that spot to hit, and it's a guy that we're very high on.

[00:01:14] I think we can also sit here and react to the fact that Mariners off-season officially not dead. It's officially not dead. It is not. It is not dead. I think people's worst fears are now past. The worst fear was only salary dump, no addition.

[00:01:29] But now we have seen an addition. I don't think it was the addition everyone necessarily wanted. I don't think Mitch Garver is going to be a unanimously approved signing at this moment.

[00:01:40] It is for us, it is on this podcast and I think if you look at it fairly, I think it should be unanimous, but it won't be, right? Because I think a lot of people wanted solar, Jorge Soler. You could have argued he's a better hitter.

[00:01:53] You could argue he has a better track record of health. And you could have argued, you know, there's more connections there would make more sense. He would be less depressed. I guess his power would be less depressed by T-Mobile Park than anyone else.

[00:02:04] However, that's not the case because Mitch Garver is now a mariner for two years and $24 million. The price indicates that they probably could not afford Jorge Soler. I'm going to guess Soler's price was a little bit higher than they were willing to pay for.

[00:02:20] So when Mitch Garver comes up and that price has rolled out and they realize, yep, for what our budget is, that's affordable and this is going to make the mariners better. Well, now that Mitch Garver is a mariner and the odds of them signing Jorge Soler are probably

[00:02:35] slim, let's just start doing metal gymnastics here. Number one, Mitch Garver, higher WRC plus than Jorge Soler last year. Mitch Garver, higher war than Jorge Soler despite playing in way less games. Mitch Garver played in just under 90 games. So Larry played in just under 140 games.

[00:02:53] So you can look at it like that in almost half a season, Mitch Garver put up a higher war and a better WRC plus than Jorge Soler did in about 135, 140 games. So let's just start doing the metal gymnastics here.

[00:03:08] We are still we are now tabbing because it fits the narrative. Mitch Garver better signing than Jorge Soler. Wow, that's bold. That is bold. And we were discussing before is like, is there any chance they still do sign Soler?

[00:03:21] I say probably not unless you want him playing in the outfield, which I'm going to take one look Lyle at Jorge Soler's body type and his movement. And I'm just going to go out there and say probably don't want him out in your outfield this season.

[00:03:36] So I think Mitch Garver is going to be the guy at DH. And when I say DH, some of you might look and say, oh, well, Mitch Garver is a catcher and he is a catcher.

[00:03:46] But the fact is that the Mariners will have Cal Raleigh and Sebi Zavala as their catchers this season. I have a very hard time seeing Mitch Garver going behind the plate this year for any sort of regular role.

[00:03:57] I think he is more of a fit in the DH spot. Most importantly to keep him healthy because that has been a real struggle of his throughout his career is staying healthy. And his best course of action for staying healthy is being a DH only and

[00:04:10] not getting behind the plate, not getting beat up and being the most valuable version of himself, which is swinging the bat. He's not going to win a platinum glove back there. So if he's not going to do that, I'd rather just milk every ounce out

[00:04:23] of his bat as possible and just let him hit. There's a couple hurdles with that. I'm going to respond to a couple of things you talked about. Number one, you don't even just have to do the eye test with Jorge Salera.

[00:04:32] No, he plays bad defense out in the outfield. I was trying to do some hurdles to thinking to myself, oh, could they still sign them? Could they still think about just throwing them out in the outfield and just say, okay, we'll take his bad defense with his bat?

[00:04:44] No, you won't. I mean, his defense is next level bat out there. It might like it's Jesse Winker level bat. Now, to the part about Garver, Garver has played over a hundred games once in his entire big league career. One time.

[00:04:57] So I think that the Mariners see this as a way to let's get Mitch Garver off his feet more. Let's not ask him to catch. Let's just have him DH. And if we do that, who says he can't play a full season?

[00:05:09] Because if he's not behind the plate, if he's not squatting down back there, if he's not trying to throw runners out and he's just focused on hitting, he could probably play a full season. So I think that is where the Mariners stand.

[00:05:19] The Zavala will be the backup catcher and they will tell Mitch Garver, Hey, just hit. And if you want to go hear a more complete full breakdown on Mitch Garver as a player, we addressed Mitch Garver in our off season wishlist

[00:05:32] episode, Lyle, we officially have made the wishlist. We have made the wishlist make an impact. We have done that. So if you want to go back and listen to that episode that we did when the off season just started, we did more of a specific statistical

[00:05:47] breakdown of Mitch Garver. But let me just be frank, Lyle, let me just be frank. This dude writes he crushes this. This is what this dude does. And he has made their DH spot now significantly better. Absolutely.

[00:06:02] And the Mariners have had a turnstile of DHS for how many years now since Nelson Cruz left? I mean, you know what the, you know what the discourse was at the end of the year last year is the Mariners are fighting

[00:06:12] for a playoff spot and they've got a bunch of utility guys in that DH spot. Well, they finally said, like you mentioned at the start of this pod, forget all that. Let's get a guy in there who is a true DH who hits, who rakes,

[00:06:24] who can hit home runs, who's going to get on base. That's what Garver does. And you know what? He does kind of fit the Mariners narrative here because what are the Mariners keep talking about this winter? We want guys to get on base.

[00:06:34] We want to cut down on strikeouts. Mitch Garver is not a low strikeout guy, but he's not a high strikeout guy. Last year he struck out a little less than 24% of the time. I would call that perfectly manageable, especially when he walked nearly 13% of the time last year.

[00:06:50] Mitch Garver is going to get on base. So not only will he hit with power, he walks and he is not a high strikeout guy. So there's a lot of reasons this makes a lot of sense for the Mariners.

[00:06:59] I mean, this dude in three of his premier hitting seasons, a 155 WRC plus a 139 WRC plus. And then this past season, 136. Yeah. So that way he would have been the best hitter on this Mariners team last season had he suited up and played.

[00:07:16] And, you know, he's not going to probably not have a 130 WRC plus in T-Mobile Park. I'd imagine that comes down a little bit. But I mean, you and I were talking about in past episodes like what is a 110 to 115 WRC plus of that DH spot due to

[00:07:30] this roster? Like what does it do to the lineup thinking about what that number was last season and how far it goes up? I mean, we're talking about a over 40% increase in production with even a 110 WRC plus. That's immense.

[00:07:45] That's literally like adding an all league player to that position and it doesn't have to be an all league player. It literally just needs to be a good hitter. That's how below the bar has been set. It would do if Mitch Garber was on this team last year,

[00:08:00] they would have been in the playoffs. If you'd been on this team and put up those numbers last year, they're in the playoffs. There's look, there's no certainty that his WRC plus goes down because what's the whole point of the stat? It's not ballpark dependent.

[00:08:11] So yes, is hitting in Seattle easy? No, it's not. But those numbers are those numbers say, no matter what ballpark you're playing in, here's what your production would be in last year. Actually, I think I think you're you're slighting Mitch Garber

[00:08:24] a little bit here now we're nitpicking, but his number last year was 138. So he was even a tad a little bit better than 136. Getting old Lyle. I can't my eyesight's going. Well, dog, that's why there's two of us here on the podcast. Isn't there?

[00:08:37] I got you and you've got me with, you know, things that are not my strong suit. It's OK, which which do exist. So that's why we balance each other out. Where was I going? Oh, yeah, I think he could hit in T-Mobile Park.

[00:08:51] OK, maybe it comes down to, I don't know, 126, 127. If he's on the field and does what he's supposed to do. But I don't see why he can't have a really good offensive season again. I think I mean, again, I think this guy fits exactly

[00:09:03] what they're trying to do. It's power, walks, most strikeouts. You just ask him to hit in the age. How on brand is it that Jerry DePoto just like was ignoring the holiday? They just just everyone else is put their phones down.

[00:09:17] They're getting ready for their Christmas Eve dinner, you know, working in the kitchen, chopping the vegetables. If you're eating meat, you're eating fish, whatever you eat on Christmas Eve and spending time with your family and laughing

[00:09:29] and maybe sitting down and watching a quarter or two of NFL football. Just relaxing, because it's been such a tense off season. But Jerry is the one GM that's actually like out on the back deck

[00:09:40] with like with his AirPods in on the phone during during Christmas Eve preparations. Like Jerry, Jerry, come in. We need we need some help with the prep. Is it no? No. No. I'm almost done with this. I'm almost done. And he got it done.

[00:09:56] So Jerry makes a move on Thanksgiving Eve when he traded Gino. And now he makes a move on Christmas Eve when he signs Mitch Garver. And that is all on top of back in Thanksgiving of 2016 when he traded for Gene Segarra and Mitch Hannigar.

[00:10:09] He like Jerry DePoto must have this mindset of, yeah, I bet you there's a lot of front offices that take the holidays off. Well, we're not because you know what happens if we take the holidays off? We can get a leg up on people.

[00:10:19] Yeah. What if Mitch Garver had he was what if he had the same deal on the table from two different teams? But Jerry took the time out of Mitch Garver's Christmas Eve to secure the deal. Like Mitch Garver realized like, man, this guy will sacrifice some of his

[00:10:33] Christmas Eve to sign me. Shows dedication. That's big time dedication from Jerry and Justin. It yeah, it really is. That's funny. But regardless, as long as you're not I would say in my summary on this, as long as you're not concerned with Mitch Garver's health, which there

[00:10:50] is concern there again, he has played 100 games once in his big league career, which spans back to 2017. So if you are really concerned about his health, then you have every right to be concerned about the signing and concerned about the viability of the

[00:11:05] signing because you know, $12 million is in for what the market we've seen currently is not a lot of money. But if Mitch Garver's only on the field for 50 games, you're not really getting your money's worth.

[00:11:19] So that would be an actual concern and you'd only get a third of the season with an actual DH. But I don't really think I'm concerned with injuries at the moment because I think it's more important you have a guy there than just sitting

[00:11:32] here fretting about him getting hurt in December. I mean, that's it's so long away at this point. They need somebody in there, period. I don't care if there's injury issues. I don't care, you know, what on the field issues there are.

[00:11:44] The dude hits, then he hits and he should be in that lineup. And it lengthens the lineup for sure. I can't worry about injuries in December similar to you. And also, I feel like his chances at injuries are now going to be

[00:11:58] massively cut in half because if he's not catching and he's just hitting, how many chances do you really have to get hurt? DHing of course anything can happen. You can't predict the future.

[00:12:08] But if he is going to hit, get on base, run the bases and then do it all over again a few times a night seems pretty risk avoidant. If I had to say so myself. Yeah, it is. So we'll see.

[00:12:21] I think this is best of both worlds in that case, which, oh, man, I'm just so happy there's a DH. I mean, I mean, we're at least we're not going to have to worry about like, well, can I take you back?

[00:12:36] Like, we're the only people who do this. Can we take you back to opening day last season in 2023? I remember sending you a text message as soon as I saw that opening day lineup and I was looking at it. I said, Tommy fucking Lestella is DHing.

[00:12:52] And you're like, dog, dog, dog. It's opening day. Don't worry about it. Things will sort itself out as a season went on. Well, unfortunately for you, Lyle, things did not sort themselves out of the DH position. The names changed. The production did not.

[00:13:06] However, when we get to whenever opening day is this season and I see Mitch Garver on that spot, I'm not going to send you a text message that says Mitch Garver is going to be in the opening day Mitch fucking Garver DH opening day.

[00:13:21] No, you'll send me a text that says Mitch fucking Garver DH opening day like, like hit it home. All caps saying let's go. A real DH. Yeah, that was that was a that was a freezing cold take of mind saying, oh, it'll be fine.

[00:13:34] Tommy Lestella is not going to be there that long or they'll figure out a solution at DH. Yeah, they did not. They did not. No, no. No. And at least like this is it's showing some evolution of thought. Like remember with Nelson Cruz, Jerry did not inherit.

[00:13:50] Jerry did not sign Nelson Cruz. Jerry inherited Nelson Cruz. So whether it was his philosophy or not, he was not just out of wanting to be more versatile. Just going to say, yeah, Nelson Cruz, you're our best hitter, but we don't want a DH only in our lineup.

[00:14:07] We want that spot to be rotating a little bit. No, Nelson, you can kind of stay there. But since Nelson's contract expired, Jerry has gone the versatility route and it's been a massive failure, to be honest.

[00:14:19] It has been a massive hole in the lineup year in and year out. And the results of versatility haven't really been proven. Have they been proven? I don't think so. Like the lineups not necessarily healthier. They haven't really stacked that DH spot with many guys that have

[00:14:34] been consistent and there's no notice of what's a good word for it. Like that having that spot to rotate guys in has been actually beneficial. We I don't think we have any evidence on that. So because of all of that, getting a guy that will actually sit in

[00:14:50] that spot the entire season is refreshing. Very, very, very refreshing. Now to those saying maybe and maybe there is some out there giving this thought of is Sebi Zavala still going to be on the roster? Would they just throw Mitch Garver into catch once a week?

[00:15:08] The more I think about it, I don't think so. I think Zavala one, they like his defense and two, this is what they're going to do to try to keep Garver healthy. So I would prepare for Zavala and obviously Cal to be the two catchers

[00:15:19] and for Garver to DH most of the time, because the other part of this is Garver's defensive metrics are not good behind the plate. So not only has he had health issues because of all the time he spends catching. He's not a good defensive catcher.

[00:15:30] Like what he what he is valuable for is his bat and mash and hit homers and to get on base. So utilize that. Now to think about this, this is essentially like a better version of Tom Murphy, to be honest.

[00:15:42] Murphy could catch, but like let's think back to like how Tom Murphy was used last year for the Mariners. It was down the stretch. He was the DH. He was the primary DH, even though he had some catching duties. He was still in the lineup there hitting.

[00:15:57] So now it's going to be what Tom Murphy's role was last year, except they're just DHing Mitch Garver. He's not going behind the plate. Well, also they're both injury prone too. I was going to say if Tom Murphy had been DHing down the stretch,

[00:16:10] they might have gotten into the playoffs. The problem is they didn't have him down the stretch because he was hurt most of the second half of the season. But yes, that is a good comparison.

[00:16:18] Right handed pop gets on base, can hit for power and Garver is a much better version of it because again, he walks a lot. He has shown it more consistently over in a long gated period of time. And he can just flat out hit. You can play.

[00:16:32] We've seen him do it over multiple years. I know he had the juice fall year in 2019 where he had crazy numbers, but still 139 WRC plus and 21 and 138 WRC plus and 23 when he's on the field, he can hit. So where do the Mariners go from here?

[00:16:46] I would like to congratulate them because what have we talked about? We said they needed four bats now this winter after all the moves they'd made of getting guys off this team. I would like to congratulate them. They have now made an impact signing.

[00:16:59] So now they have three to go. Do I actually think they're going to sign three more? I have my doubts if they can sign two more, find two more, two more real bats, the rest of this off season. I will say good on you guys.

[00:17:11] You have addressed the issues for the most part. So clap it up for them. They have made one signing. It's not enough though. They've got to go do more. They do have to go do more. And I'm going to end my train of thought here on this

[00:17:23] emergency Christmas Eve podcast with so we're planning this upcoming week where we're going to mock the Mariners lineup. And I was like, I was really kind of looking forward to having another week of seeing like who's going to hit fifth

[00:17:40] seeing who we would end up choosing to pencil in there in that five spot. I mean, like, wow, I don't think the comments are going to like this very much. I don't think people are going to like looking at this on paper.

[00:17:50] So I'm thankful it actually kind of makes your job a little bit easier this next week. Well, if by Friday there haven't been any more transactions, it still may be a talking point. But for now, what are the first five? It'll be JP, Julio, Cal, Garver, Ty.

[00:18:06] Yeah, that's that is better than it was just a few hours ago. Right. So it again, as I said in our social media post, it gives people allows them to breathe a little bit, breathe and let the worst case scenario

[00:18:22] what people thought of this off season that they were only going to salary dump and not spend it all in really penny pinch and let that thought sort of go away into the wind. Like, let it go. Let it go because that's not the case now.

[00:18:35] They have spent and we're anticipating they're going to do more. Now, we've both we've said you just said it. I'm going to say it here like this isn't enough period. Not enough there still they might be with a healthy like say Mitch Garver

[00:18:48] sets his record of games played say he plays 130, 140 games. I'll say the Mariners are slightly only now slightly worse lineup wise than they were last year, only slightly worse. So now you need to go get that guy to put you over at least what last year's production was.

[00:19:08] And maybe we'll break this down more on Wednesday's podcast, but the market does get interesting now because where are their needs? It's outfield and it's third base outside of Matt Chapman who we already labeled as not the greatest fit for the money he's going to demand.

[00:19:21] There's not a whole lot of options out there right now that say, yeah, perfect fit for the Mariners. Go get that guy in the free agent market. So maybe it comes through some trades now moving forward. Maybe they signed somebody we're not expecting.

[00:19:35] It's going to get interesting because there are no clear cut fits the way somebody like Garver or Soler was. So now where we go from here, I think we'll be on the balls of our feet.

[00:19:44] Yeah, we're going to have to see and I think it again, we'll all come down to depending on the impact, whether or not Jerry wants to trade any of his pitchers like that's always an option. It's always an option.

[00:19:56] He says he doesn't want to do it, but if you and I are sitting here saying they clearly need more bats and they by bats we mean impact bats. You're not going to sign one. That's probably what it's going to take and to cap it off.

[00:20:12] It's time to continue getting uncomfortable. It is it. We got to continue doing that. Although it might get harder and harder for him because I'm sure they just like all Mariners fans did this past week saw that Bryce Miller splitter

[00:20:26] in his Twitter video and that thing looked pretty deadly, especially when the numbers popped up. So hear me out. Then you're like, well, so you see Bryce Miller has a splitter now. Uh, I will take Gunner Henderson straight up. Sign me right up for that.

[00:20:43] I love that idea. You know what? If I were Mike Elias, I'd sign seal and deliver it right now. Yeah. Sign it up. Let's do it right now. Why don't we just get that done right now on Christmas? Why, why even delay?

[00:20:54] Do you have, do you have Elias's phone number? Let's call him right up. I'm sure we could find it. I'm sure we could take it up. Yeah, let's do that. Let's stop this podcast here and go dig up that phone number to get to going.

[00:21:04] So that'll just about wrap up this short edition of the Marine Layer podcast. You guys know the drill. You want to listen to the full, full form podcast. You can do so wherever you get your audio pods, make sure to download

[00:21:16] the show, leave us a five star review and follow the show, follow the show wherever you get your audio pods. Like comment, subscribe on YouTube where the full video podcast is and follow us on social media on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube shorts at Marine Layer pod.

[00:21:32] That's TJ. I'm Lyle. As always, we thank you guys for tuning in. We'll talk to you soon.